Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bielle:
Is anyone else getting an "invalid certificate" notification tied to a DND (Navy) url when you refresh this page?


I am and I'm using my cell phone.
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wow, that was rough, scott! hope you're feeling better. yes, we've had a lull so you haven't missed anything except Katia which ended up a hurricane near newfoundland now we have a cape verde invest to follow.
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Quoting scott39:
I see nothing ever changes on here.Lol



ha this is a good day
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Quoting scott39:
Hello Everyone, Im Back! I was in the hospital for 6 days. I was being treated for shingles on my head and eyelid. I also had a bacterial infection in my eye called Cellulitous. The docs did a good job and I did not loose my vision in the right eye. I see we have 97L invest.

Six days is a long time. Shingles is awful. I hope you are feeling better.
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I see nothing ever changes on here.Lol
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Quoting MANYMOREGOOFSTOCOME:
you lost house shingles?


Oh Wow...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting scott39:
Hello Everyone, Im Back! I was in the hospital for 6 days. I was being treated for shingles on my head and eyelid. I also had a bacterial infection in my eye called Cellulitous. The docs did a good job and I did not loose my vision in the right eye. I see we have 97L invest.



wb Scott good to see you again
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Quoting CaribBoy:
I hope invest 97 WON'T BE AS BORING AS KATIA!!!!!!!!!!!! MODEL RUNS ALREADY WANT TO SEND IT OUT TO SEA....



mode runs dont take it out too sea it points it W
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Hello Everyone, Im Back! I was in the hospital for 6 days. I was being treated for shingles on my head and eyelid. I also had a bacterial infection in my eye called Cellulitous. The docs did a good job and I did not loose my vision in the right eye. I see we have 97L invest.
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Quoting Bielle:


In practical terms, what, if anything, does it mean? Does it have anything to do with my Sophos?



imo it doesnt mean much. when you visit that site it usually ask for it . but any answer will let you view it
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A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NHC just doubled 97L's chances up to 20%

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598. JLPR2
Needs more convection.



But rapid development is not expected, so it should organize slowly.
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I hope invest 97 WON'T BE AS BORING AS KATIA!!!!!!!!!!!! MODEL RUNS ALREADY WANT TO SEND IT OUT TO SEA....
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Quoting will40:


ok i use it also and havent seen the certificate warning yet


In practical terms, what, if anything, does it mean? Does it have anything to do with my Sophos?
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i use to see it a lot when using Opera browser
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Haven't seen it on Chrome either.
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Quoting Chicklit:

why don't you try to do it?
maybe because it doesnt show model runs when i click on 97L... thanks...
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Quoting Speeky:
Why did we come up with the name "Invest" for an area of disturbed weather that has a >20% chance of forming within 48 hours?


Definition of invest:-
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
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Quoting Bielle:

Firefox


ok i use it also and havent seen the certificate warning yet
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Quoting will40:
try firefox and see if you still get it

That's what I am using.
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try firefox and see if you still get it
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Quoting will40:
i think it depends on what browser you are using

Firefox
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i think it depends on what browser you are using
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Quoting Bielle:
Is anyone else getting an "invalid certificate" notification tied to a DND (Navy) url when you refresh this page?


not yet but i have in the past
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Is anyone else getting an "invalid certificate" notification tied to a DND (Navy) url when you refresh this page?
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LinkWUGroundTropicalTracking
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2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
97L.INVEST
14L.MARIA

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W.INVEST
19W.SONCA
18W.ROKE

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting wpb:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs tr opical850mbVortSLPGFSLoop.html


that site wont let ya hot link anymore
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Why did we come up with the name "Invest" for an area of disturbed weather that has a >20% chance of forming within 48 hours?
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GOES-13 Atlantic IR

..click image for loop

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571. wpb
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfstr opical850mbVortSLPGFSLoop.html
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570. wpb
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
can someone post the model runs on 97L please? thank you!
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I gotta go with fish on this one.

Final Answer.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
can someone post the model runs on 97L please? thank you!

why don't you try to do it?
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can someone post the model runs on 97L please? thank you!
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Possibly the biggest problem humanity has ever had to deal with, Awesome to say the least.
If its true then the future direction of all nations and commercial existence will be in jeopardy.
Might just be caused by an increase in the burning of carbon based compounds in an oxygen rich atmosphere, leading to an increase in CO2.
The rest might just be history,one day.


Are you scared?
"Yes!!"
Well, you shouldnt be.
"Why?"
Because you're on Scare Tactics!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.