Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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interesting little spinning cell north of kw
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...And the blog becomes filled with trolls.

Any news about the air-race crash in Reno?
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So Maria is now dead. Looking for what comes next.

A very nice cool day here in Baltimore, more like late October than September. 60s all day!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...And the blog becomes filled with trolls.
I was posting earlier that in times when that the blog gets hectic, feel free to head over to my blog and post there. It'll be monitored far better than this blog.
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Quoting MoltenIce:
I concur. Not sure what's up with the blog.

Troll infestation. can someone call the local exterminator company to take care of this infestation.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...And the blog becomes filled with trolls.


I agree! I've been lurking a long time never seen it as bad as this.
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
Quoting twincomanche:
Yup.


I think I'll head to "the place".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
...And the blog becomes filled with trolls.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Any REAL bloggers left?
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
Quoting Skyepony:


Your seeing it on a pop up here?

Someone post a hot pic from navy?

I've told mine to go there so not seeing it.



no not tonite but i have seen the popup in the past
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Quoting stillwaiting:
alot of storms so far,however ace is very low still


Not that low...its above average.
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5:00PM Update
*Click images to magnify (images can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)


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721. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting will40:



yes but why does it show up for someone that is not even visiting the site?


Your seeing it on a pop up here?

Someone post a hot pic from navy?

I've told mine to go there so not seeing it.

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Quoting Gearsts:
So many ignore comments:/
I concur. Not sure what's up with the blog.
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Quoting will40:



yes but why does it show up for someone that is not even visiting the site?


Something in the blog is linked to it.
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ME could see the 1st season snow


000
FXUS61 KGYX 162215 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
615 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011



. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER EARLY. THIS PCPN
MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.




Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
alot of storms so far,however ace is very low still
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712. Skyepony (Mod)
SAL
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Quoting Skyepony:
You have to tell your computer to always accept that invalid certificate..



yes but why does it show up for someone that is not even visiting the site?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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