Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting txjac:


I think Dr. Master's does this for a reason. Even though there is bickering and even though there are some that say they are leaving ...awareness of the subject is brought to attention ...even if you dont buy in to the GW I bet many on here think about respecting the planet more. And that is a good thing. I want to leave my kids and grandkids a beautiful world
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.
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565. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Honestly not much, it did drop below 100 but the humidity being higher I cannot tell the difference. A few clouds in the sky which is a change, some look like they could drop a light shower. They are saying we will have some moisture in the air but the high pressure will be too close and the trigger will be missing for us to have anything more than 20 percent maybe next week for a day or 2? I thought the trigger would be a front coming down but this front was a Big joke for us, right now it is hot and humid here. I work out every day in this weather and it feels the same to me like it has since May. Last decent rain in Austin was June 22 when they received almost 2 inches. I think I got about 1.5 inches that day? But since then I have received nothing. Going to get very warm in Dallas again the front will move north as a warm front.



I really do feel for you boho ...seeing you have to be out in this every day. Hope it changes for us soon
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Quoting DFWjc:


Speaking of weather, any change down there?
Honestly not much, it did drop below 100 but the humidity being higher I cannot tell the difference. A few clouds in the sky which is a change, some look like they could drop a light shower. They are saying we will have some moisture in the air but the high pressure will be too close and the trigger will be missing for us to have anything more than 20 percent maybe next week for a day or 2? I thought the trigger would be a front coming down but this front was a Big joke for us, right now it is hot and humid here. I work out every day in this weather and it feels the same to me like it has since May. Last decent rain in Austin was June 22 when they received almost 2 inches. I think I got about 1.5 inches that day? But since then I have received nothing. Going to get very warm in Dallas again the front will move north as a warm front.
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563. txjac
Quoting WeatherWx:


Awareness? I dont think many common folk believe in AGw anyways.


But do you believe in respecting the planet and leaving it (hopefully) a better place ecologically?

Edit

You dont have to be on either side for that to happen
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So, how's Bermuda doin'?
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560. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


left? probably a lot. banned? probably none.

Its a topic for today's blog entry, and yesterdays.


I think Dr. Master's does this for a reason. Even though there is bickering and even though there are some that say they are leaving ...awareness of the subject is brought to attention ...even if you dont buy in to the GW I bet many on here think about respecting the planet more. And that is a good thing. I want to leave my kids and grandkids a beautiful world
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I meant for post 550
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


So hard for them. I lost my house to a fire late last November. I understand what they're going through.
Sorry to hear that, how are you recovering? Bastrop has their first football game tonight since fire, alot of the firefighters etc will be there, should be a Nice Feeling time tonight in Bastrop. 1,544 homes destroyed but lots of homes were saved also. Almost all of the 6000 acre forrest in Bastrop was destroyed.
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556. DFWjc
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.


Speaking of weather, any change down there?
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lol
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I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.
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Quoting midnite02:
i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.


left? probably a lot. banned? probably none.

Its a topic for today's blog entry, and yesterdays.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting JupiterFL:


Neo, one ups again! Good job.

Well, I wasn't trying to "one up" PHM, or prove him wrong; I just eagerly ran to the TCR to verify what he'd said, as I've been searching for just such a record, and was actually disappointed that it didn't qualify.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13744
551. txjac
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
I grew up in Wisconsin in the 1960s. My grandmother would say: It's a gonna be another ice age. Go somewhere hot.



I grew up in Ohio and remember snow in October, now in May ...I travel home to see my mom from Texas at Christmas time and it always amazes me when there isnt any snow ...I always remember being a kid and there always being snow at Christmas
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update and Drought Update:

Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.

The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.

DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET


So hard for them. I lost my house to a fire late last November. I understand what they're going through.
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I grew up in Wisconsin in the 1960s. My grandmother would say: It's a gonna be another ice age. Go somewhere hot.

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547. txjac
Quoting FloatingCity:

OOPS ...i forgot...the storm isn't hitting the US....


No, not that ...its just that she has been moving so slowly it didnt even cross my mind that it would get that far ...my apologies ...I'm a mother and a lover of all ...I worry about everyone
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Bastrop Fire Update and Drought Update:

Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.

The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.

DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET
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Quoting txjac:


I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list


Was in Seattle for a week about 17 years ago. Was beautiful weather, not a drop of rain all week. I'm going again in March-ish time frame this spring. Hoping for the same weather again.
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543. txjac
Quoting midnite02:
i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.


Even if they left I think its temporary ...I mean, how can you really leave this blog? Its additcting
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Quoting FloatingCity:
Maria


Yeah...you're going to have a storm tomorrow....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting txjac:


What kind of storm?

OOPS ...i forgot...the storm isn't hitting the US....
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i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.
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539. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:


Oh I'll take any kind, but i won't take p!ss-mist.. hated that crap in Seattle(actually Kent, WA). I'd walk home about a mile from school and it's be just enough rain to not be completely drenched, but just enough to feel ugh!!!


I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list
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Quoting txjac:


What kind of storm?
Maria
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537. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Does it matter! lol! Just take it!
Or are you day dreaming about what it would look like!


Oh I'll take any kind, but i won't take p!ss-mist.. hated that crap in Seattle(actually Kent, WA). I'd walk home about a mile from school and it's be just enough rain to not be completely drenched, but just enough to feel ugh!!!
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536. txjac
Quoting FloatingCity:
I'm in Newfoundland...going to have a storm tomorrow.


What kind of storm?
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I'm in Newfoundland...going to have a storm tomorrow.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
My grandfather said all this GW talk is crazy. He says they used to freeze every winter in Chicago and they prayed for a warm blanket.


That would support Global Warming, not disprove it..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
532. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:


What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?


Does it matter! lol! Just take it!
Or are you day dreaming about what it would look like!
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My grandfather said all this GW talk is crazy. He says they used to freeze every winter in Chicago and they prayed for a warm blanket.
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Hurricane Irene is one of the top-ten costliest disasters in USA history.

Just FYI.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Duck gumbo is great, love squirrel gumbo even more. It's been a beautiful day here, in the upper 70's. It was supposed to be a hot day, so no complaining from me! I see Maria is a hurricane now, at least for a little while before she hits colder water.


Squirrel hmmm. No squirrel shortage here...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.


Think of all the beautiful plants that are growing because of the rain. Think of all the beautiful trees etc. that is being nurtured because of the rain. Beautiful lush East Coast woodlands...Ahhh

Now imagine all that vegetation dying and turning into concrete.
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Duck gumbo is great, love squirrel gumbo even more. It's been a beautiful day here, in the upper 70's. It was supposed to be a hot day, so no complaining from me! I see Maria is a hurricane now, at least for a little while before she hits colder water.
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Quoting DFWjc:


What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?
It's having showers.They passed for now.But it's brezzy outside with cool temps.It's in the 50's and cloudy.
Quoting mossyhead:
In Antartica or Washington DC.
In D.C.I see green trees and a wet side walk.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.
In Antartica or Washington DC.
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523. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.


What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?
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Good night Hurricane Maria:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Not quite on 2007....It was El Nino that gave us rain during spring/early summer. The rain abruptly stopped in fall of 2007 (La Nina) and did not resume until El Nino in fall of 2009..

Kinda confusing.....The actual weather tends to "lag" after formation...

I'm not offended. I get offended when local TV weather people make it sound like it's going to rain. Guess they are just making a bunch of noise to get rating.
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.
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520. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum


Wu MAIL
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519. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum


It was easy to get after what they did to Oregon...Geaux Tigers!!!
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Good evening my little chickadees.
The heat is slowly loosing it's grip on us and it is pleasant with temp 79 here in Crescent City.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Taking a break from weather for a sec.... Just wanted to let you know I work at Cowboys Stadium for Traffic and the people from Louisiana (cheering for LSU) were some of the nicest people I've met. It was a joy talking with some of the fans and the band was awesome, such power with their music... Also enjoyed the duck gumbo a fan gave me, LOL!!!


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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