Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

Share this Blog
31
+

Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 617 - 567

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

617. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Yeah, kept at 75mph, and dang! Maria is moving fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
616. txjac
Quoting Quadrantid:


Should note that I wrote the article I linked - so don't be too harsh with any criticism - I'm a fragile sort, you know ;)


Congratulations, interesting article
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.


Yes, photos and treasured items that were passed down from family. I was told it would take time, it's like a death, and it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
614. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.


My insurance agent came up with a great idea, he gives out 8GB USB thumb drives to have people scan all their documents and pictures and recommends to buy a fire proof safe to keep everything in(paper docs, thumb drive, etc). I bought a 32GB and have every little item i could copy that means something to me, just in case...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
612. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I revised my comment, at first I saw the drop in T-numbers from 4.7 to 3.5, and I thought you meant a decrease in intensity. That wasn't the final T-number though.


Ha. Yeah, noticed that before posting it too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steering currents are really weak in the WPAC. Guess this explains the higher amount of intense storms in that basin.
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°05'(26.1°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW390km(210NM)

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I don't either. I am trying to get used to the sound of President Perry however.


OK..
That is just plain old scary. And it has nothing to do with the environment or even left or right...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


You know, an increase in the winds to 80-85mph.


I revised my comment, at first I saw the drop in T-numbers from 4.7 to 3.5, and I thought you meant a decrease in intensity. That wasn't the final T-number though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
608. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What do you mean bump in intensity?


You know, an increase in the winds to 80-85mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:
Is there a site to find out what position the planet's poles are currently at in degrees? I have a working theory that the planet over time (a long long time) has been shifting, thus the reason for more interesting weather phenomenon.

Which poles? The magnetic poles are shifting continuously to some degree, if that's the poles you're interested in.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting JLPR2:
ADT analysis for Maria.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2011 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 36:01:27 N Lon : 64:57:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.5

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

I guess a bump in intensity is possible.


Not at 8PM, but probably 11PM.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Quoting txjac:


Friends like that ...you are very blessed


Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Quadrantid:
This might interest some of you -- if not, sorry for being slightly off topic ;)

Paper published today in Science has announced the first circumbinary exoplanet around nominally Sun-like stars... which is of course being hailed as the first step towards us finding a real Tatooine :)

Here's the story :) Enjoy :)


Should note that I wrote the article I linked - so don't be too harsh with any criticism - I'm a fragile sort, you know ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:
Is there a site to find out what position the planet's poles are currently at in degrees? I have a working theory that the planet over time (a long long time) has been shifting, thus the reason for more interesting weather phenomenon.
Yes, the magnetic field could flip at any time. It's consequences are totally unknown. Animals might migrate in the wrong direction causing mass extinctions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


We have done exceptionally well with producing internet technology over the past 40 years. And we did it all with Florida orange juice.

You're somehow equating global warming and technological advancement. We have done so well because we ditched the idea that some sky wizard working magic explains everything we don't understand. The advancement of science and technology is why we are doing so well today.

The planet also has not been warming for a "few hundred years". The warming began and accelerated during the last 150 years with most.


I think it's rather arrogant that people suppose that another hundred years or so of warming is bad when global warming is the very reason we have lived so well over the past several thousand years - since the last ice age.


Again, your attributing the success of our race incorrectly. Our success has depended on a lot more than just a warm planet. For example, many civilizations were wiped out due to local climate changes during the past several thousand years, along with many species. In fact, currently it seems like we are experiencing at least a minor extinction event with the number of species that have been disappearing as of late.

Considering our entire agricultural industry is based around relatively consistent climate norms, yes I would say any significant divergence from that norm is going to cause problems. Nor is it arrogant to think so.


I know that I might be oversimplifying it, but I think that we're staring at the models too much and not living as we should and adapting to this changing world.


Really? And how does one adapt when they have no idea what they need to be adapting to? One of the aspects of climate science is attempting to quantify what effects a changing climate will have on the planet.

Then there is the problem of sustainability, which still seems like problem a lot of people ignore.

You have to have an understanding of what is happening and why before you can make any plans of dealing with it.


Lets give it some time and see how it goes?


Um...no. Changes happening on a global scale are something that need to planned for. Waiting until the last minute will be far more expensive than taking steps ahead of time.


Besides, right now, our economy is far too low to absorb the kind of costs the AGW lobby is asking for.


There will never be a good time to do so. It will either be the economy is doing to poorly to take action now or the economy is doing well and we don't want to negatively impact it.


And with global terrorism and rogue nation dangers reaching heights never imagined before, it's too risky to be spending billions on what's effectively a climate experiment.


But it's okay to spend billions on security theater for something that kills far fewer people per year than diseases or natural disasters? What exactly are you trying to say here?

And what climate experiment are you referring to? I'm not aware of any global scale experiment that is anywhere close to being an implemented reality. Nor is it likely that one could be made considering the world political climate. That's why some people are watching this situation like Prometheus watches an incoming eagle.


An experiment that would have broad ranging ramifications for all people on earth.


As opposed to gigatons of pollutants and other trash we through about our planet? At least with climate preservation measures, we would clean up the planet a bit vs. continuing treating it like is was an infinite roll of toilet paper.


I know some people want to risk the lives of people so that we might go forward with this experiment, but me, I am not willing to assume that risk just yet.


And yet your willing to continue with the status quo? That reasoning doesn't make a whole lot of sense.


Wow, you're a trooper. I'm exhausted after today's blogging. It's like trying to reason with hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally, good deal of convection over Roke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:


Probably the most sensible post I've seen today!

It was actually pretty bad. He's nice guy but his opinion is based upon nothing of substance.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think our basin has been drier than past years...This is from 9/29/10..Nicole.

oh god do you remember 2010 and the gulf death shear? after matthew the gulf filled up with 40 to 60 knot shear and boom paula got vaporized then richard after crossing the yucatan BOOM 60 knots. funny thing is the atlantic carribean and EVEN THE GOMEX are forecasted to be favorable for late september and early october..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
598. JLPR2
ADT analysis for Maria.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2011 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 36:01:27 N Lon : 64:57:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.5

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

I guess a bump in intensity is possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:


Last I heard, he was taking a shower.


Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
595. txjac
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Doing better now, still finishing up on rebuilding some things. I was very blessed with alot of good friends from around the world who all helped me in different ways.


Friends like that ...you are very blessed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With Maria heading out, we return our focus to what's next?

Well we have a possible west caribbean system, and a possible tropical wave formation...

The Nogaps, which atatches to monsoonal developments likes for a storm to develop in the caribbean and would likely follow a weakness into the east gulf, and then turn NE into west florida or if the trough is amplified, into cuba. The canadian still hints at some development too, but these are both inaccurate models.

A tropical wave that is going to emerge off of Africa in the next day is forecasted by the Euro, GFS, Canadian, and Nogaps to form is looking like a possible caribbean runner. The storm is going to stay weak well into the central atlantic before beginning to organize and development, which will keep it west. Then it should form and head into the caribbean. The Bermuda High is forecasted to rebuild strong around this time, which will keep it westerly through the eastern caribbean, then a shortwave trough is forecasted to come through, but if "Ophelia/Philippe" is too far south then it would only feel a slight tug to the north which would bring it to around 15/16 N. Then the High could move back in and a westerly track would resume. A second trough over the plains around that time would likely pick it up, but at this point the storm would've gotten itself to deep into the caribbean to not affect land somewhere. This is just my take on a possibility, and we will get a more clear thinking of what will happen as the next 7 days roll on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where is Taz?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This might interest some of you -- if not, sorry for being slightly off topic ;)

Paper published today in Science has announced the first circumbinary exoplanet around nominally Sun-like stars... which is of course being hailed as the first step towards us finding a real Tatooine :)

Here's the story :) Enjoy :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Sorry to hear that, how are you recovering? Bastrop has their first football game tonight since fire, alot of the firefighters etc will be there, should be a Nice Feeling time tonight in Bastrop. 1,544 homes destroyed but lots of homes were saved also. Almost all of the 6000 acre forrest in Bastrop was destroyed.


Doing better now, still finishing up on rebuilding some things. I was very blessed with alot of good friends from around the world who all helped me in different ways.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.
I don't either. I am trying to get used to the sound of President Perry however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think our basin has been drier than past years...This is from 9/29/10..Nicole.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
587. JLPR2
I see both the GFS and EURO are on board with a possible CV storm in a few days.
They differ in track, but the important fact is that they both develop something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Behind Typhoon Lionrock from last year in the Western Pacific. :-)


It was a severe tropical storm, not a typhoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Guys I can not tell you how beautiful it jst was outside after the rain and clouds cleared.It looked like something outside of a fairy tale!!.The rainbow that was just outside ws amazing!!.The clouds were a puffy pink orange and purple!!!.And with the sun setting at the same time it put on a awesome show!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My best friend has a looooooot of family in Newfoundland, and she hails from there also. Their town of Clarenville, where she was born, was nearly leveled from Igor last year. Maria is growing in size like most hurricanes that reach that far north do, and she could be this year's Igor for Newfoundland. This woman is one persistent housewife.

And, I just checked the Royal Gazette (Bermuda periodical) and it says they sustained very minimal damage, with no reports coming in and only sporadic power outages. But that article also states that Maria hasn't yet attained Hurricane Status, and I also read on BerNews that a tree fell on someone's house due to a lightning strike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TravisBickle:
Sonca coolest name for a storm ever :) !!!


Behind Typhoon Lionrock from last year in the Western Pacific. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Political extreme wings are really a joke, bahhh!
Lefties using a wrong term explaining a scientific issue, and righties denying the obvious. GW is a wrong term and climate change is so true, as tomorrow is going to be the saturday yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
580. DFWjc
Is there a site to find out what position the planet's poles are currently at in degrees? I have a working theory that the planet over time (a long long time) has been shifting, thus the reason for more interesting weather phenomenon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherWx:


AGW should be reported as politics.



well yes it leads to that eventually but the AGW is listed in the header so it is allowed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sonca coolest name for a storm ever :) !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maria could cause quite a bit of trouble where its headed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list

You better go while you can, Seattle and the Pacific NW is 30yrs overdue on the BIG one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nothing wrong with GW posts when it is entered in Dr. Jeffs header. But as far as the politics is concerned it should be reported then ignored imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's my amateur opinion on the subject..

The Earth doesn't have a constant climate. Its been really really cold, and really really hot. In my opinion, we are in the period where temperatures are warming. However, I think eventually, it will cool down again..Maybe in my lifetime, maybe not.

JMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
570. DFWjc
Quoting mossyhead:
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.


Discussion yes, but the ignorant name calling and the lack of respect of other ideologies is another thing.

It's still okay to AGREE to DISAGREE...but we can all do it without being a you-know-what...IMHO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks look we got an ivan on the 18z GFS when ivan just developed into a td i found some pictures of the GFS model showing it recurving first out to sea then over the islands then over puerto rico then over hispanola then over cuba and bahamas then over cuba and florida but actually recurved into gulf shores alabama. 12z gfs showed the storm moving through the southern windwards then nw and north over puerto rico out to sea. 18z same track now over hispanola. similar to ivan in terms of developing in a low latitude and continous recurving shown only farther west each run. take notice to this guys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


I grew up in Ohio and remember snow in October, now in May ...I travel home to see my mom from Texas at Christmas time and it always amazes me when there isnt any snow ...I always remember being a kid and there always being snow at Christmas

On July 13th, 1995 the highest heat index ever recorded in the US occurred in Appleton WI: 148 degrees
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian /article.html?entrynum=36
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


I think Dr. Master's does this for a reason. Even though there is bickering and even though there are some that say they are leaving ...awareness of the subject is brought to attention ...even if you dont buy in to the GW I bet many on here think about respecting the planet more. And that is a good thing. I want to leave my kids and grandkids a beautiful world
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 617 - 567

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron