Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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666. jpsb
Quoting twincomanche:
What part of this don't some understand?
Well unions really hate it when they lose a lot of union jobs and unions are a very important voting block for one of the parties.
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Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

Time of Latest Image: 201109152345
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664. txjac
Personaly I feel priveledged to be part of this community. So many here I admire. I truly respect all and consider those here part of some kind of family of mine

Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2617
663. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
It will be interesting to see if Dr. Masters has comment of all these people from different perspectives that appear to be leaving this blog.


Why would he? Part of what is going on around here is what is wrong with the world today ...tolerance and respect.

If you see the post is about something that you are not agreeable with - take the day off. Or read through and just ignore it - kind of like I do with the troll posts, or the troll spray posts, etc.

In between it all there has been talk of the weather and that can be commented on if you come here.

I read it all, + many posts that I think are worth it and skip what I dont like.
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2617
662. DFWjc
Quoting jpsb:
Could you WU mail me the link to your paper? I would love to read it but not tonight, need to go to bed soon. TIA


Sorry, it's not typed yet, it's penciled on a old wired bound paper. Everytime i get a idea or wanna jot down notes it so much easier to be "offline" with it...
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661. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent article. Thanks. I read a lot of science fiction as a kid, so became enamored of the idea of living under a double sun. I assumed--and later read--that the tidal pull between, and necessarily rapid rotations of, the binary stars would lead to grotesque equatorial bulges, with either or both members displaying a prominent oblate spheroidal shape, and with the primary member drawing plumes of gaseous matter from its companion. I've also read that, because of this imbalance and the abnormal transfer of matter, binary systems would be unstable and thus only to last for a relatively short time. I'm sure a lot would have to do with the mass of the members, their sizes relative to each other, their relative ages, and, of course, the distance between them and eccentricity of their orbits.

Anyway, again: excellent. That's amazing...
Back when the Earth was young and the Moon recently formed after the Earth collided with Thea (a mars sized planet) the Moon was only 20,000 miles from Earth and tides were over 1000 feet! Tidal waves would wash over entire continents. Talk about surfs up, lol. Things stayed that way for millions of years. Sadly one day our moon will leave us and drift out to ether collide with Mars or Jupiter or Saturn.
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I, for one, am not leaving. I agree with most of what atmo is saying, but leaving would mean loosing the friendships that have brought me some joy in here.

Here is my take. It takes all kinds to make up the collective. I don't have to agree with you and you don't have to agree with me. I wan't to be in here with all of you, so I can be informed from all directions.

Here is my plea. Please feel free to talk, argue and disagree, but please stop the disrespect, bullying and fighting.

And for the weather, the sunsets in North Florida have been incredible this week. Kind of glade nobody is getting pounded by a named storm. :)

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Maria is off to extra-tropical-land

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657. jpsb
Quoting DFWjc:


Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.
Could you WU mail me the link to your paper? I would love to read it but not tonight, need to go to bed soon. TIA
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Up to 70kts.

AL, 14, 2011091600, , BEST, 0, 368N, 649W, 70, 984, HU
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
From Levi's blog

Quoting quasigeostropic:
I'm thinking of echoing atmoaggie as well. I'm just providing WU free advertising to their AGW agenda. I am taking down all my tutorials and let WU get free advertisement elsewhere. It was nice back in the days when AGW wasn't crammed down our throats every other blog by Jeff Masters(I've been here since 2005). Now the AGW trolls are in full force, using the rating system here to pull down skeptics(even myself). I will not continue supporting this site for it being dishonest(false claims about AGW), and being apathetic to trolls that name-call and disrespect skeptic's opinions. I will no longer tolerate a site that caters to bad science.

Back in the days, this site was NUMBER 1! Now it's an ego-contest, dishonest, and disrespectful. To all those who made WU great, I salute you!



Wishing you the best Levi!


There are trolls on both sides of the debate. Posts get minused on both sides of the debate. Neapolitan and I were some of the first posters to get negged into the abyss. Some troll used a script to minus all of our posts into oblivion. This is why even though some people try to plus my posts everyday to get me unfiltered, my posts still get filtered out. So please, don't give me that finger pointing stuff, both sides have their share.

Also, if you still haven't figured out what the greenhouse gas effect is, then that's your problem. We could argue the amount of influence humans have on global temperatures all day (since to what extent that is, is unknown), but to deny that we are contributing is absurd.

Besides, nearly all the "agenda" that AGW promotes would promote a better future for us and our offspring. Minimizing or eliminating foreign oil dependency, using more renewable energies, cleaning up the environment, reducing our usage of everything, reusing more, and recycling more are all ideas "preached" by the AGW crowd, and they are all legitimately smart ideas which would help with the environment and well-being of society as a whole. The only problem is right now our economy can't afford these ideas. Still, it is no reason to shoot these ideas down, it just means they will have to wait.

later, alec
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From Levi's blog

Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, given that most any other blog I would write this in is either banned or cleared out by it's owner, or, just a place I don't want to be (TheMain), I hope it is okay to do so here.

Levi, best of luck to you and your meteorological future. I think you have a certain aptitude found only in a very few.

This is goodbye as I shall not be around WU any more. Besides the goofs by admin, TheMain is simply overrun by inanity, trolls, and holier-than-though preachers of AGW. And it all starts with WU, itself, though, which I blame for the degradation of what was once a splendid forum by "leading" by example and allowing the worst while banning the best.

Postings by myself, and all others, are free content for WU. This free content provides hits for ad dollars, besides just hits by the poster. With no, or infrequent, posts, no dollars. (In no way am I encouraging you, Levi, to do anything different, here.)

I have decided that I can no longer, in good conscience, continue to provide WU with any more free content for them to make money from. (Not that I was ever that prolific in doing so, but zero is what they'll get from here on).

Good to know most of you. I may be found at gulf coast wx, from time to time. (see google)

Cheers.


Bye atmo, and I agree, it would be nice if we had better site maintenance.

I won't be leaving the site, but I will be posting here a lot less and no longer doing blogs. It's a big time suck for me and I really don't enjoy posting that much anymore. My posts have been minused so much that the filter hides all of my posts, the number of trolls rises exponentially day by day, and honest discussions seem to be impossible to find nowadays.
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It's been either feast or famine with rain in a lot of areas. I hope TX is getting some of the wet stuff, finally, at least somewhere.
So far this year I think we in ECFL are a little low.

The Cape Verde Wave Factory is in production mode.
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649. jpsb
Quoting AegirsGal:
Thought the same thing when we were told by the government that 'some industries' were too big to fail...what a crock of crap. If a business fails, it fails.
+1000
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Receiving rain bands from Maria in Nova Scotia at 9:36p atlantic time.
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Hmm..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting twincomanche:


Several more days of silly arguments because of no activity.


+
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
639. DFWjc
Quoting Birthmark:

Then you might want to have a look at this link, too:
Link


Thanks as well, wow, thanks guys/girls for all the help for my research, glad i've got the weekend off to read.
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637. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well, I believe the piece of Emily contributed, but the main reason for Gert's formation was that an Upper Level Low worked its way down to the surface, which is rare to say the least.


Ah I see, then Emily's energy probably moistened the ULL. The one close to 20N and 58W is at that step of the transition progress, but as you said it is rare to make the jump.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
I see we've (the blog) has calmed down since this afternoon. During hurricane season I keep it up in the background at work. Busy day and ate lunch late and look in to see what was happening. Was actually shocked to see what was going on and left.
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Quoting DFWjc:


Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.

Then you might want to have a look at this link, too:
Link
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting DFWjc:


Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO


Just how slight is your proposed shift?
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting DFWjc:


Okay, not to blow your mind, but my box is in another fire-proof box, so i'm thinking i'll be okay :)


People laughed at mine in the freezer, until they found out all my papers were safe. If it works, that's all that counts.
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Quoting Quadrantid:
This might interest some of you -- if not, sorry for being slightly off topic ;)

Paper published today in Science has announced the first circumbinary exoplanet around nominally Sun-like stars... which is of course being hailed as the first step towards us finding a real Tatooine :)

Here's the story :) Enjoy :)

Excellent article. Thanks. I read a lot of science fiction as a kid, so became enamored of the idea of living under a double sun. I assumed--and later read--that the tidal pull between, and necessarily rapid rotations of, the binary stars would lead to grotesque equatorial bulges, with either or both members displaying a prominent oblate spheroidal shape, and with the primary member drawing plumes of gaseous matter from its companion. I've also read that, because of this imbalance and the abnormal transfer of matter, binary systems would be unstable and thus only to last for a relatively short time. I'm sure a lot would have to do with the mass of the members, their sizes relative to each other, their relative ages, and, of course, the distance between them and eccentricity of their orbits.

Anyway, again: excellent. That's amazing...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
Quoting mossyhead:
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.


I would imagine that he believes we are all mature enough to have a discussion without all of the bickering.

Climate Change, AGW, GW where is this storm going and when will it make its turn, what causes cloud formations, how hot is hot or whatever, all seems to lead to us just bickering amongst ourselves. Pick a topic. Any topic. We will find a way to bicker our way through it.

Some will leave because of this. Some will ignore it. Some will come back later. Perhaps a small show of maturity is all that is needed to make this great blog an excellent blog. ... There is nothing wrong with diversity and opposing opinions.

BTW, I have never "minused", "ignored", "poofed" or "reported" anyone here. I never will.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Didn't Gert form from a piece of energy left behind by Emily? It was a ULL?


Well, I believe the piece of Emily contributed, but the main reason for Gert's formation was that an Upper Level Low worked its way down to the surface, which is rare to say the least.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
629. DFWjc
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Oh! My insurance guy told me fireproof boxes may survive, but if the temp of the fire is extremely high, the heat inside the fireproof box can be enough to disintergrate the papers.


Okay, not to blow your mind, but my box is in another fire-proof box, so i'm thinking i'll be okay :)
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628. JLPR2
Wouldn't it be interesting to see something like this:

Upper level low rapidly organizes and becomes tropical storm Ophelia. LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
627. DFWjc
Quoting Birthmark:

This should get you started.

Btw, if you ever want to get dizzy just stop to think of how many different directions we're moving and how fast. lol


Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I kept all my paperwork in an old ammo box I had painted blue. I kept it in my standing freezer. The box was rusted, but all my papers inside were perfectly fine. Hint if you do this though, put the box on the side where the door opens. We had a heck of a time getting into the melted freezer to the side opposite the side where the door opens.


Oh! My insurance guy told me fireproof boxes may survive, but if the temp of the fire is extremely high, the heat inside the fireproof box can be enough to disintergrate the papers.
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625. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Remember, that is how Gert formed.


Didn't Gert form from a piece of energy left behind by Emily? It was a ULL?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting DFWjc:


My insurance agent came up with a great idea, he gives out 8GB USB thumb drives to have people scan all their documents and pictures and recommends to buy a fire proof safe to keep everything in(paper docs, thumb drive, etc). I bought a 32GB and have every little item i could copy that means something to me, just in case...


I kept all my paperwork in an old ammo box I had painted blue. I kept it in my standing freezer. The box was rusted, but all my papers inside were perfectly fine. Hint if you do this though, put the box on the side where the door opens. We had a heck of a time getting into the melted freezer to the side opposite the side where the door opens.
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Quoting JLPR2:
ULL near 20N 58W continues to look interesting.


Remember, that is how Gert formed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting DFWjc:


Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO

This should get you started.

Btw, if you ever want to get dizzy just stop to think of how many different directions we're moving and how fast. lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
621. JLPR2
ULL near 20N 58W continues to look interesting.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
8:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
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619. DFWjc
Quoting Birthmark:

Which poles? The magnetic poles are shifting continuously to some degree, if that's the poles you're interested in.


Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update and Drought Update:

Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.

The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.

DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET


How is your daughter doing?
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617. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Yeah, kept at 75mph, and dang! Maria is moving fast.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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