Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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Here is a good book that might answer some questions.

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Quoting Patrap:
Here,,admin is NOT in real time as stated in the Community Standards above right, of every comment section.



WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by wunderground employees to interact with bloggers.

This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.


For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.


IMO, they really need one, or a couple.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting txjac:


Why would he? Part of what is going on around here is what is wrong with the world today ...tolerance and respect.

If you see the post is about something that you are not agreeable with - take the day off. Or read through and just ignore it - kind of like I do with the troll posts, or the troll spray posts, etc.

In between it all there has been talk of the weather and that can be commented on if you come here.

I read it all, + many posts that I think are worth it and skip what I dont like.
Very strongly agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
708. txjac


+ 1000
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
713. jpsb
Quoting twincomanche:
"Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted."

Why?
I think weather would keep currents going, but with out a moon the Earth would wobble on it's axis, that would certainly get the currents going and lots of other stuff too. No more dependable seasons for one. The moon is a big part of the reason life (us) are happy (mostly) on Earth.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
712. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM SONCA (T1116)
9:00 AM JST September 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori Shima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonca (1002 hPa) located at 23.0N 152.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 24.6N 147.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 29.2N 142.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 34.1N 143.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
Thanks Pot. Uplifting message for tonight.LOL.

Yer welcome!

Had some showers today, and might get some more tonight.
A nice break from the recent Dread Heat.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
710. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
9:50 AM JST September 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (985 hPa) located at 26.3N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 26.2N 129.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 26.2N 128.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 26.2N 128.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here,,admin is NOT in real time as stated in the Community Standards above right, of every comment section.



WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by wunderground employees to interact with bloggers.

This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.


For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
708. txjac
Finally I would ban the use of the word TROLL on the blog. Any discussion of who is or is not a troll, and bragging that one has a certain # of trolls on ignore would be off limits too. Let ADMIN be the judge of who is a troll.It is TROLLISH to engage in that kind of talk.

And if you are too thin skinned hit the road.


Couldnt agree with you more!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:




Global Climate Change Indicators


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.

It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans.

These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.




Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.
Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



Are u gunna share that thing in your hand :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry twincom i'm new here and didn't realized quote wouldn't show what you were quoting. I was agreeing with you though :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is sad to see so many either banned, minused, and voluntarily leaving WU. The solution as I see it is to get rid of the childish rating system and bushwacking banning system and have ALL posts visible. If a poster breaks the Blog's rules he is 1st warned by admin to clean up his act and then if needed gets a ban. Also either allow or don't allow off tropical comments. If you allow the AGW stuff on Dr Master days only that makes no sense to me. AGW leads to political, bickering, chaos on ANY day.

Finally I would ban the use of the word TROLL on the blog. Any discussion of who is or is not a troll, and bragging that one has a certain # of trolls on ignore would be off limits too. Let ADMIN be the judge of who is a troll.It is TROLLISH to engage in that kind of talk.

And if you are too thin skinned hit the road.

Well, sorry for the rant.Just trying to make the blog a better place.

Good luck to recent departures in their futures
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


Watch Finding Nemo, LOL!


Hey Mr Grump Gills
You know what you gotta do when life gets you down?
Just keep swimming
Just keep swimming
Just keep swimming swimming swimming
What do we do we swim, swim, swim
OH HO HO How I love to swim
When you WAAAAAANNTTT to swim you want to swim
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
700. DFWjc
Quoting twincomanche:
"Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted."

Why?


Watch Finding Nemo, LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jpsb:
Another interesting fact that a lot of people don't know is that the Sun is getting brighter. Every billion years the sun increases it's brightness by 10%. So well mankind are going to be dealing with Global Warming one way or another with or without CO2 worries. I've read that in 400 or 500 million years the Earth will be to hot for life to exist. So we need to get started building those super big super fast space ships.

It's too late already.
We're DOOMED as of next year.
An Aztec Scribe said so.
So it MUST be true. After all, they also invented Dark Chocolate. Wise people, them Aztec.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
697. jpsb
Quoting txjac:


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture
The orbit is enlarging. Tidal pull is draining energy from the two body system, as the system loses energy the moon drifts further away. Also the Earth rotation slows, back in the day, an Earth day was only 4 hours.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
8:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting twincomanche:
This is so stupid. The rule is if you are born here you can be a citizen it doesn't matter where your parents are from. Doesn't anyone bother to check the facts before they post anymore?


To my knowledge, neither parent has to have citizenship as long as you are born in the US. Not taking a side one way or the other, just stating a fact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
694. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
Be calm. It isn't happening next week. LOL.


He was answering a question that I had ...I feel so uninformed as I hadnt heard this info before ...or if I had I have forgotten it ..happy that I wont be here to see it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
Be calm. It isn't happening next week. LOL.


I believe in being prepared. I bought a moonlight lamp. .... Just waiting to use that baby!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
692. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture


Is the moon moving farther away from Earth? And if so what effects will this have on the Earth and why is this happening?

So is the moon moving away from the Earth? Yes indeed it is, the moon’s orbit is moving approximately 1.5 inches or 3.8 centimeters away from the earth per year.

Why is this happening? The reason why the moon is moving away is because of Earth’s tides. This tidal effect causes the moon to spiral outward which also decreases the moons rotation. It decreased the rotation so much that now the moon only shows one face of its surface to Earth.

What are the effects of this?

The effects of the moon getting farther away from Earth could mean many things. One of them is lower high tides and higher low tides. And most things in the ocean would die. Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted so unless the organisms in the ocean could find something else to eat they would all die.

Read more: http://scienceray.com/astronomy/the-moon-is-leavin g-earth/#ixzz1Y4fSLQmZ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture


The orbit of our moon will expand to the point that Earth's gravity will no longer be able to maintain a gravitational pull on it. Our moon will begin its separate voyage through the solar system.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
689. jpsb
Quoting txjac:


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things
Another interesting fact that a lot of people don't know is that the Sun is getting brighter. Every billion years the sun increases it's brightness by 10%. So well mankind are going to be dealing with Global Warming one way or another with or without CO2 worries. I've read that in 400 or 500 million years the Earth will be to hot for life to exist. So we need to get started building those super big super fast space ships.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
Quoting floodzonenc:


I was wondering... I have learned from this blog that the 2 biggest inhibitors of strengthening are wind shear and dry air. Is wind shear usually greater in the tropics than in the mid-latitudes, or is that just the pattern for this season?

I'm sorry bout all the questions. I teach science and plan to become a met when I retire from teaching (and thus can better afford to do so).

Thanks twin and everyone else who takes the time to help others. :)


I would think that would be this season only...but I may be wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting jpsb:
Yeah one day the Sun will go red giant and global warming is going to be a real b****h.


It will be toasty and there will be no doubt where the extra heat is coming from. Fortunately, we have a couple of days left to pack our bags. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
683. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:


The moon is moving away at a rate of about 1 1/2 inches..or...3.8 centimeters per year.


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
681. jpsb
Quoting txjac:


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things
The moon is receding at a rate of about 1 inch per year, not sure when it leaves Earths orbit but it will happen.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
679. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things


The moon is moving away at a rate of about 1 1/2 inches..or...3.8 centimeters per year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678. jpsb
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I heard that our moon will be leaving us. I think it must have heard that our sun may one day occupy this block of the neighborhood. Another neighborhood would look rather appealing, about that time. ;-)
Yeah one day the Sun will go red giant and global warming is going to be a real b****h.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197




Global Climate Change Indicators


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.

It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans.

These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.




Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.
Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
676. txjac
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I heard that our moon will be leaving us. I think it must have heard that our sun may one day occupy this block of the neighborhood. Another neighborhood would look rather appealing, about that time. ;-)


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


It's been either feast or famine with rain in a lot of areas. I hope TX is getting some of the wet stuff, finally, at least somewhere.
So far this year I think we in ECFL are a little low.

The Cape Verde Wave Factory is in production mode.


I agree, this rainy season was nothing special at all here in ECFL, though I understand South Florida has received pretty plentiful rainfall as of late. Now, the "rainy season", such that it was, seems to be more or less finished.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
It will be interesting to see if Dr. Masters has comment of all these people from different perspectives that appear to be leaving this blog.


I've been considering it myself...I lurked here for several years before joining, and I for one can tell you the blog has really deteriorated over the past few years. Its become filled with trolls, and people who have no respect for one another.

Not leaving yet, but..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting jpsb:
Back when the Earth was young and the Moon recently formed after the Earth collided with Thea (a mars sized planet) the Moon was only 20,000 miles from Earth and tides were over 1000 feet! Tidal waves would wash over entire continents. Talk about surfs up, lol. Things stayed that way for millions of years. Sadly one day our moon will leave us and drift out to ether collide with Mars or Jupiter or Saturn.


Yes. I heard that our moon will be leaving us. I think it must have heard that our sun may one day occupy this block of the neighborhood. Another neighborhood would look rather appealing, about that time. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
671. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
You are probably right. However when you start restricting free speech (banning) then you no longer can say that anything goes as far as opinion. Then you probably have some obligation if you are going to have some credibility to explain your thinking. That's all. He doesn't have to tell us anything.


Maybe I missed something but I didnt realize that people recently were banned for opinions contrary to others ...I saw some leaving though and wish that they will be back after they cool down
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I don't either. I am trying to get used to the sound of President Perry however.

Why, because MSNBC, FOX, et al insinuated you should? Please turn off the TV.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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