Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No.



Hmmmm. I just sent them a note asking why. Oh well.
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Quoting DFWjc:


really? haven't you seen any movies with Tom Hanks in space?


I saw the first Harry Potter movie, and the one before that was the second Star Wars. I gather Tom Hanks is an actor.
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Oh lord.Now the blog is having the time of day/year where everyone is preaching that they are leaving or they are staying and how bad the blog is getting over the years.Personally me commenting less is a sign of something.I just won't say what it is.
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Quoting Patrap:


DFWjc...you were on it
<<------------PPP :)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I uploaded a new portrait pic last night, and it is still waiting for approval. Just my face. When I uploaded the pic I have now it was approved in less than 20 minutes. New pic just says "approval pending"

Does that kind of delay happen often?


No.
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761. txjac
Quoting jpsb:
Perhaps, I am unconvinced, but we can have that debate an other day. Time for bed, nite all.


Good night ...enjoyed your conversation this evening
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I uploaded a new portrait pic last night, and it is still waiting for approval. Just my face. When I uploaded the pic I have now it was approved in less than 20 minutes. New pic just says "approval pending"

Does that kind of delay happen often?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Apollo 12 got hit by Lightening as they Launched thru a T-Storm and the Bolts ran down the contrail to the Pad from the Saturn 5.


SEC to AUX was the command to reset the Panel that got knocked off line from the strike.


Al Bean actually threw the switch after the S-1 Staging that kept them from a Abort mode.




Thank you. With your explanation, and a little time on Wikipedia (Signal Conditioning Equipment (SCE)), I now get the denotation. You patience is appreciated.
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8:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
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757. jpsb
Quoting pottery:

Actually, it's the Oceans that Moderate and to some extent CREATE the weather.
Without a Moon, tides would be drastically affected, and there would be no mixing of different ocean waters.
The Gulf Stream would shut down (along with all other ocean currents).

The oceans would become virtually stagnant.
They would lose MOST of the life in them.
Perhaps, I am unconvinced, but we can have that debate an other day. Time for bed, nite all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I never use the Buttons,,period.


They a distinct distraction in every way
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting DFWjc:


i was trying to get the apollo part in....i figured someone would of gotten it by now...


DFWjc...you were on it
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
752. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:




i come on when evere i feel like it



am lurking


we miss you Taz...just not as exciting without ya...
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750. DFWjc
Quoting Patrap:
Apollo 12 got hit by Lightening as they Launched thru a T-Storm and the Bolts ran down the contrail to the Pad from the Saturn 5.


SEC to AUX was the command to reset the Panel that got knocked off line from the strike.


Al Bean actually threw the switch after the S-1 Staging that kept them from a Abort mode.




i was trying to get the apollo part in....i figured someone would of gotten it by now...
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Quoting jpsb:
I think weather would keep currents going, but with out a moon the Earth would wobble on it's axis, that would certainly get the currents going and lots of other stuff too. No more dependable seasons for one. The moon is a big part of the reason life (us) are happy (mostly) on Earth.

Actually, it's the Oceans that Moderate and to some extent CREATE the weather.
Without a Moon, tides would be drastically affected, and there would be no mixing of different ocean waters.
The Gulf Stream would shut down (along with all other ocean currents).

The oceans would become virtually stagnant.
They would lose MOST of the life in them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hiya Taz,,lurking is a good thing sometimes to observe the flow and all.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Hi Taz :)
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746. DFWjc
Quoting Bielle:


At the risk of alienating everyone, and without resorting to Wikipedia, who is Tom Hanks, and what does he have to do with space?


really? haven't you seen any movies with Tom Hanks in space?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Apollo 12 got hit by Lightening as they Launched thru a T-Storm and the Bolts ran down the contrail to the Pad from the Saturn 5.


SEC to AUX was the command to reset the Panel that got knocked off line from the strike.


Al Bean actually threw the switch after the S-1 Staging that kept them from a Abort mode.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting DFWjc:


hint.... Tom Hanks...spaaaace


At the risk of alienating everyone, and without resorting to Wikipedia, who is Tom Hanks, and what does he have to do with space?
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Quoting twincomanche:
Taz, you still out there?




i come on when evere i feel like it



am lurking
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742. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
Is this an inside roadie joke? Don't get it.


uh Houston, we have a problem....
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In a way its easier with so many comments about fighting and whatnot. I can just look back and see a few weather posts.

If all the comments were relevant I'd never get through them!
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Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.
Is this an inside roadie joke? Don't get it.
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738. DFWjc
Quoting Bielle:

"SEC" in my world is the Securities and Exchange Commission; I don't understand anything more except for "to", "on" and "the".


hint.... Tom Hanks...spaaaace
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Looking back here is a partial answer to Neapolitan's question about the length of time a system has been a tropical storm, without breaks. No intervening weakening to a depression, no strengthening to a hurricane.

Tropical storm Fay became a tropical storm at 5 p.m. August 15, 2008. And maintained that status through 8 p.m. (7 p.m. CDT) August 23. 195 hours, and then weakened to a depression after her eighth landfall.

Tropical storm Marie was a tropical storm for exactly the same length of time, from 11 a.m. September 7 though 2 p.m. September 15. 195 hours. Then became a hurricane.

Here is Fay's advisory archive.

Fay and Marie share the record for the past few years for storms with the longest duration at tropical storm strength.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.

"SEC" in my world is the Securities and Exchange Commission; I don't understand anything more except for "to", "on" and "the".
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Most NASA Buffs get dat un..LoL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
733. DFWjc
Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.


(small snicker)
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SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
730. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Errr..don't really know of a lot besides atmomaggie...


he's taking his talents to the SEC next year i bet...
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729. txjac
Quoting jpsb:
I have probably been on the internet longer then anyone here (ex NASA) so I would offer this advise, never do personal attacks, never take anything personal, treat others with respect, stay on topic and if all else fails ignore them. Simple really.



Awesome advice ...works well in the non-internet world as well!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Who has left the blog...and where have they gone to? Pardon my lateness lol.


Errr..don't really know of a lot besides atmomaggie...
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726. jpsb
I have probably been on the internet longer then anyone here (ex NASA) so I would offer this advise, never do personal attacks, never take anything personal, treat others with respect, stay on topic and if all else fails ignore them. Simple really.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


To my knowledge, neither parent has to have citizenship as long as you are born in the US. Not taking a side one way or the other, just stating a fact.
Who cares anymore? Like him or not he's gone next year.
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723. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


IMO, they really need one, or a couple.


I kind of like it without ...
Even though we are not all of the "adult" age we all here have "adult" maturity ...it's just whether we act that way.

I dont want someone constantly over my shoulder ..I know how to behave and how to respect ...and I see a great deal of that in the people that post here. We are all human and have off days ...just move on.

I love this place ..only place that I can go where someone doesnt ask what you're wearing or what color your panties are ...
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After looking ugly all her life Marie has gussied herself up and become a hurricane! Go, girl! But go south of the Avalon peninsula and leave St. Johns alone!
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Who has left the blog...and where have they gone to? Pardon my lateness lol.
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719. jpsb
Quoting pottery:

It's too late already.
We're DOOMED as of next year.
An Aztec Scribe said so.
So it MUST be true. After all, they also invented Dark Chocolate. Wise people, them Aztec.
Lol, I want my dark chocolate NOW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I got minused into oblivion earlier and I was the one being called names. Go figure. I still love this place tho! Where else can you find out about potential weather events way before the media has caught on to them> Not just 'canes but winter storms and Tornado warnings, all kinds of stuff.
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Here is a good book that might answer some questions.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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