Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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I remember the good old days, when you know? Scientists were scientists, not scientists acting as politicians, holding huge conventions, because they are gripped with fear from world problems. Ah humanity, it tries so hard to save itself from which it cannot.
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866. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm out. Everyone have a great Friday!


We have some lightning and thunder up here at the fringes of tropical cyclones like Irene. Systems are never 100% tropical when they get here though.


Maria brought thunderstorms to PR, I believe that the little thunderstorms tropical storms and up have are at the outer bands, but not closer to the core, because the clouds move too fast to allow them to form?
Dang! My memory sucks!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
I'm out. Everyone have a great Friday!


We have some lightning and thunder up here at the fringes of tropical cyclones like Irene. Systems are never 100% tropical when they get here though.
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864. JLPR2
Quoting FrankZapper:
I never once during Lee experienced lightening or thunder. Where were the thunderstorms?


I don't remember "why" well, but I belive tropical systems aren't supposed to have that many thunderstorms.

During Irene I never heard thunder, but I did see frequent lightning.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting FrankZapper:
I never once during Lee experienced lightening or thunder. Where were the thunderstorms?


I've never experienced a tropical cyclone with lightning. I realize that some produce it, but from what I gather most do not. Similar to hail.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you! I thoroughly enjoy making them and posting them on here.


I had no idea you created them yourself. I just assumed you were linking them from another weather site. Well done!
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
That's an excellent graphic AllStar! Way better than the local tv mets show.


Thank you! I thoroughly enjoy making them and posting them on here.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Apparently, we briefly lost power here, but I decided to ride it out with my dad since his apartment complex seems to be more stable in relation to this one. We never lost power there.

We had wind gusts in the tropical storm force range, but those were confined to the heaviest squalls. I estimate a peak gust of 45 mph occurred around 7:30 AM Friday morning, which turned out to be the worst we got, contrary to my (and others') expectations.

The interesting thing about Lee was that he resembled more strongly a subtropical cyclone, rather than a truly tropical entity. Some kept saying he had "eaten" that upper low, but that obviously did not happen, as it was that very thing that pumped all that dry air into him.

I must admit, it was kind of cool experiencing only mild cloudiness with periodic sunshine during a tropical cyclone. Now I know what it is like to experience a subtropical storm.

However, the winds aloft were likely very strong, especially in gusts. They likely would have exceeded 60 mph had even after the system moved inland had convection been able to develop and bring those winds down to the surface.
I never once during Lee experienced lightening or thunder. Where were the thunderstorms?
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.

no, it's definitely not. Idk how you could even call it over when we have a hurricane spinning in the Atlantic right at this very moment lol

Quoting KoritheMan:


I would love to see a tornado from a distance also. But that's pretty much the only weather phenomenon I have no desire to experience firsthand.
yea same. At a distance would be really cool (as long as it's not tearing up some neighborhood, that'd be not cool).

I'm gonna go for now, later all
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That's an excellent graphic AllStar! Way better than the local tv mets show.
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Quoting houston144:
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....


Interesting map. Thanks
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
Quoting houston144:
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....

houston
I worked with electricity for 48 years. The dryer the air, the less chance for an arc. If there was a lot of dust in the air, that might have caused it. Dust was dangerous around high voltage.
Jesse
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Good Night to all.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


OH no! Not the PC vs. MAC debates!


Mac the knife!
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11:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
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Quoting MoltenIce:
Concerning computers...

I have a Mac. :S


OH no! Not the PC vs. MAC debates!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Quoting FrankZapper:
Old Lee. Seems like yesterday. I lost electricity for 10 hours Fri PM to Sat AM. At 1st Entergy said they would not fix it until Monday because they were predicting 40-50mph winds for Sat and Sun, which never materialized.

Did your area fare any better?


Apparently, we briefly lost power here, but I decided to ride it out with my dad since his apartment complex seems to be more stable in relation to this one. We never lost power there.

We had wind gusts in the tropical storm force range, but those were confined to the heaviest squalls. I estimate a peak gust of 45 mph occurred around 7:30 AM Friday morning, which turned out to be the worst we got, contrary to my (and others') expectations.

The interesting thing about Lee was that he resembled more strongly a subtropical cyclone, rather than a truly tropical entity. Some kept saying he had "eaten" that upper low, but that obviously did not happen, as it was that very thing that pumped all that dry air into him.

I must admit, it was kind of cool experiencing only mild cloudiness with periodic sunshine during a tropical cyclone. Now I know what it is like to experience a subtropical storm.

However, the winds aloft were likely very strong, especially in gusts. They likely would have exceeded 60 mph even after the system moved inland had convection been able to develop and bring those winds down to the surface.
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Gosh I'm tired. Gym Jones kicks butt. Kicks my butt sometimes too.

A gym with a name even more controversial than this site. Jeez.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Have to agree Tom. Seems like this blog is a micro view of the whole country right now.There's more enough blame to go around,so I won't start. Seems everyone has to be right with a my way or the highway attitude,reminds me of the poor status of our political recourse,at this moment in time. I see no good coming from it,only bad.We may end up a third world country if we can't find common ground on important issues. Just my 2 cents.
Yes, unfortunately, the Blog and The Country are in decline mode, it seems. :(
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847. DFWjc
I'm out too, got lots of research to do...nite all
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting DFWjc:


I used to work for CompUSA and Acer, E-machine and Gateway are all the same company now..
Emachines still suck.I can tell you that I have not brought another computer and prbally won't be another computer from them for a long time.
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Quoting KYDan:


Mayan scribes, or more exactly calendar chiselers.;-)


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Quoting DFWjc:


I used to work for CompUSA and Acer, E-machine and Gateway are all the same company now..


Wouldn't recommend them to anyone!
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
Quoting TomTaylor:
From Levi's blog



Bye atmo, and I agree, it would be nice if we had better site maintenance.

I won't be leaving the site, but I will be posting here a lot less and no longer doing blogs. It's a big time suck for me and I really don't enjoy posting that much anymore. My posts have been minused so much that the filter hides all of my posts, the number of trolls rises exponentially day by day, and honest discussions seem to be impossible to find nowadays.


Have to agree Tom. Seems like this blog is a micro view of the whole country right now.There's more enough blame to go around,so I won't start. Seems everyone has to be right with a my way or the highway attitude,reminds me of the poor status of our political recourse,at this moment in time. I see no good coming from it,only bad.We may end up a third world country if we can't find common ground on important issues. Just my 2 cents.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Kerry!

Yeah, I've been sick with a cold, probably from pretending to be Jim Cantore during Lee. Then I hurt my back, and I'm just now recovered.
Old Lee. Seems like yesterday. I lost electricity for 10 hours Fri PM to Sat AM. At 1st Entergy said they would not fix it until Monday because they were predicting 40-50mph+ winds for Sat and Sun, which never materialized.

Did your area fare any better?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
841. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah the Emachine had broke down in almost a hurry.The hole where you put your headphones had stop working and it catches viruses easliy and breaks down.


I used to work for CompUSA and Acer, E-machine and Gateway are all the same company now..
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


Sorry. I could have warned you about Emachines :(
Yeah the Emachine had broke down in almost a hurry.The hole where you put your headphones had stop working and it catches viruses easliy and breaks down.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is EXCELLENT news! I am very glad to hear that. I believe that I am safe in saying that all of us here wish her the best and that all others effected will recover soon.

I heard of the donations being sent in to everyone there. I hope they get all they need!
Thank You so much, the majority of those who lost their homes didnt even have insurance. Amazing what can happen if everyone just donates a little to whatever cause. Going thru everything this past year just in the weather here has made me a stronger person, the heat and drought are bad enough the fires brought my misery to a different level. We all know around Central Texas that the weather is going to get much worse before it gets alot better unless a Miracle happens. I wish and pray for everyone, take care, Dennis.
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Atlantic
14L.MARIA

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W.INVEST
95W.INVEST
19W.SONCA
18W.ROKE
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Didn't take long for Godot to get here.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOUR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Good night, to all. I hope everyone gets the weather they need. ... Where did I put that suitcase?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Quoting FrankZapper:
Hey Kori! Haven't seen you in awhile.


Hey Kerry!

Yeah, I've been sick with a cold, probably from pretending to be Jim Cantore during Lee. Then I hurt my back, and I'm just now recovered.
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831. DFWjc
Quoting houston144:
aaaaa...

just what is happening in the Gulf...did the stationary high check out...looks like rain coming into Texas, could it be?


yep, got some rain yesterday up here...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15
Location: 38.5°N 63.5°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NE at 43 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
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aaaaa...

just what is happening in the Gulf...did the stationary high check out...looks like rain coming into Texas, could it be?
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Waiting for Godot.
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827. DFWjc
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.


i disagree, just wait another 10-13 days....
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting KoritheMan:


I would love to see a tornado from a distance also. But that's pretty much the only weather phenomenon I have no desire to experience firsthand.
Hey Kori! Haven't seen you in awhile.
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.


...You do realize we had five October hurricanes last year, right?
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Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maybe. But I wonder. Why aren't the clouds green with bacteria?


Because when we see green skies, we know something else is up and have them banned! LOL
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
Quoting TomTaylor:
I was thinking the same thing lol

Unless there's a tornado on the ground


I would love to see a tornado from a distance also. But that's pretty much the only weather phenomenon I have no desire to experience firsthand.
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oh my window index is 5.9
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Nice spin trying to start within the ITCZ it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
50 ways to leave your planet. But will we go?




My bags are packed. I have heard something about the closer you get to approaching the speed of light, the more time slows down. At my age, that would be the closest I could get to finding the fountain of youth! ... Who needs Ponce de Leon? I have LIGHT SPEED!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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