Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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I read somewhere a couple month back they are trying to design some huge turbines to sink off the east coast so power could be generated using the Gulf Stream currents. Did anyone else see that?
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Quoting jpsb:
Well being a realist I know that someday soon we are going to run out of easy to get fossil fuels and I would rather not do the extreme techniques to get the fuels like fraqing or steam injection. Clean coal sounds appealing but even then there is only so much of that, so whether we like it or not we are going to have to learn to live without fossil fuels. Ergo my willingness to go to nuclear is based on that, rather then a fear of tipping the planet into a runaway global warming period.

You might say I am making a virtue of necessity :)


I agree with this whole heartedly! People think it's so easy to just shut down fossil fueled plants and rely on renewables. Well that may work for states with those resources available. As far as Texas is concerned, this just will not work yet. Until we can get people to ease up on their energy consumption, we need reliable baseload generation to power the masses.

Wind isn't reliable and usually isn't available in the areas with the largest populations. Transporting wind energy from west Texas undergoes huge loses, making its generation a minimal addition to our thirsty grid system.

Hydro power is another hard one to utilize. We just "flat" out dont have enough elevation relief to build giant hydro-electric facilities to make large quantities of MW's from. Excuse the pun.

Solar is a great idea if we could figure out a good way of storing this energy. The sun will only be reliable for half of the day for most of the year. What will be do on those cold, overcast days of winter when demand is skyrocketing?

Geo-thermal power is just not available for Texas in abundance. Sorry...not an option.

The bottom line is this...we don't have the resources or technology available yet to shut down fossil fueled plants in the power thirsty state of Texas. Demand is just too high. Until we get there (and I hope we do someday), natural gas, nuclear, and yes...coal fired plants will have to keep providing us reliable, cheap power. Building them clean, safe, and efficient should be the thought process for major utility companies futures.
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Looking at the WV loops, there is a real pretty picture at 20n 55w
Surrounded by dry air and spinning away very nicely.

Raining here at 11n 61w.
Nice!
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Quoting Chapelhill:


I thought it was pretty clear that global warming is a mismoner for global climate change.

Is the overall world climate warmer? Yes. Are their greater extremes in cold? Yes.
Heat? Yes.
Floods? Yes.
Drought? Yes.

Have you been reading Dr. Masters blog for the past year?


Thank you! For people who want to engage in an intelligent debate, the fact that they can't seem to look past the two words global warming to what it actually entails makes me question why they should even have a voice in the conversation. When you come to a debate armed with nothing but misinformation about climate science you heard on Fox Noise or Glenn Beck's radio show, I think your credibility goes out the window.

In every other instance, we seek out the advice of an expert on the subject we need help with. For automotive matters, a mechanic. For air conditioning matters, an A/C company. Computer issues, an IT person. Health problems, a doctor, etc. etc.

Why is it that we have an overwhelming number of "experts" in a field that agree on this but there are so many who would rather consult with an 8-ball for the answers on climate change rather than the experts?

Climate scientists are the experts we should consult with on climate science! I have never seen a subject cause so much brainlock!
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Well, the hurricane season must be over. Usually politics will not show up here much unless the season is over. Nobody changes their mind due to these exchanges. I popped on here and I wondered why there were so many people hidden.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Rice University has already set up a condensation collection system for their new unit. They claim they will capture 15 gallons per hour of condensation, off of this one unit. This will allow them to water their trees, among other things. They are currently looking to capture the condensation from all of their AC units and estimate that they will save 2,000,000,000 gallons of water per year, once the process is complete. This is money they will not have to pay for water each year.

I do not have a link to this. This is something I heard a spokesman, for Rice University, say on a radio program the other day.


I have pondered this idea for a while. Every time I go to water my garden I see my ac dripping. Sump pumps. used toilet floats 5 gallon buckets rain barrels.
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109. JLPR2
264hrs...

This is the GFS's imagination at work, in other words, long range isn't accurate.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Here i will start a running post for you all.....and put myself on first. NOPE there is no option for Center!...LOL HAVE FUN WITH THIS

Left side:
1)



Right Side:
1) TampaSpin
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Thought this was a democracy. Since when has it become a criminal offense to hold a differing viewpoint.


Then why did you write it that way? :)
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Quoting oreodogsghost:
I think the republican party is in more danger of being overrun by far right luddites than the democratic party is in danger of being overrun by left wing nihilists.


Both the far right and the far left need to get a clue.

I do not think it is right for some congressman to decide what kind of energy solution to use when they have a stake/investment or take campaign contributions from the many different energy providers.

Instead of looking at things in an unbiased way, they will vote what is in their own best interest.

I fully agree that we need to find other means to generate power with out burning coal, oil, Natural gas. But I am not aware of any technology that can take it's place at the current cost level. Everything we eat or buy has used fossil fuels.

So we have to gradually reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Guilty as charged.


Thought this was a democracy. Since when has it become a criminal offense to hold a differing viewpoint.
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Gotta run........but, reading everyone's post...its pretty easy to see which side of the isle everyone sits! Be nice today!
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Quoting seafarer459:


Ya Know. The AC manufactures a lot of water? Dig a hole, sink a tank, add a pump. Just an idea. Greater minds could devise a ???


Rice University has already set up a condensation collection system for their new unit. They claim they will capture 15 gallons per hour of condensation, off of this one unit. This will allow them to water their trees, among other things. They are currently looking to capture the condensation from all of their AC units and estimate that they will save 2,000,000,000 gallons of water per year, once the process is complete. This is money they will not have to pay for water each year.

I do not have a link to this. This is something I heard a spokesman, for Rice University, say on a radio program the other day.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
Quoting mcluvincane:
Global Warming = Left Wing Democrats
Guilty as charged.
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Quoting oreodogsghost:
A new study by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) finds that those overpaid federal government workers we hear so much about actually save the government money compared with private contractors doing the same work: POGO’s study analyzed the total compensation paid to federal and private sector employees, and annual billing rates for contractor employees across 35 occupational classifications covering over 550 service activities.


How about the Gov. Employ. lifetime retirement paidouts.........Contracting out would save in the long term i would think while still producing the same amount of jobs and still save the country money IMO!
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Now, back to the weather.
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In Texas, we privatize everything and watch results and performance go down the tubes. For example, most of our charter schools are a joke, but they keep sucking at the taxpayer spigot.
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I think the republican party is in more danger of being overrun by far right luddites than the democratic party is in danger of being overrun by left wing nihilists.
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A new study by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) finds that those overpaid federal government workers we hear so much about actually save the government money compared with private contractors doing the same work: POGO’s study analyzed the total compensation paid to federal and private sector employees, and annual billing rates for contractor employees across 35 occupational classifications covering over 550 service activities.
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Quoting oreodogsghost:
Name an argument you believe the democratic party is on the wrong side of.


I don't think its the wrong side but, the extreme way of trying to develop a solution to fix something. That is the difference IMO!
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Name an argument you believe the democratic party is on the wrong side of.
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MMMM...a window of opportunity is opening for a CV hurricane to enter the Caribbean. PR Needs to watch this wave near CV because the High set up is becoming very similar to Georges and Hugo.

probably more like Hugo for PR.
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Quoting jpsb:
You know it is very difficult to argue with someone that claims global warming causes global cooling. Seems like you want to have it both ways ;)

So just for the heck of it would you please tell me what GW does not cause? Something nice.


I thought it was pretty clear that global warming is a mismoner for global climate change.

Is the overall world climate warmer? Yes. Are their greater extremes in cold? Yes.
Heat? Yes.
Floods? Yes.
Drought? Yes.

Have you been reading Dr. Masters blog for the past year?
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Quoting jpsb:
Good idea, doing that already at my little beer joint, here at home I rarely use the AC fans work just fine most of the time. My friends all think I am crazy, but I try to get used to the local climate rather then fight it with electric gadgets. My electric bill is normally 50 bucks a month. I took in a friends family will their Ike damaged house was rebuilt, electric bill jumped to $420 a month. yikes! Glad their house is done.
That is a big jump. Curious, jpsb, do you use the old fashion clothes line, or do you have an electric or gas dryer?
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Quoting cajunkid:


Its not nearly as bad as it is made out to be.

You have casing protecting the upper sands.

Also, the technology is improving daily.
LIQUID CO2 FRACKING IS GROWING
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Quoting cajunkid:
Link

How Hydraulic Fracturing Works

In accordance with state regulations, the wellbore is encased with protective steel and cement, called surface casing, to protect the groundwater. The depth of this surface casing is determined by the level of groundwater protection needed. After the well is drilled to total depth, hydraulic fracturing generally takes place thousands of feet underground, a considerable distance below any drinking water aquifers. Standard company well design practices ensure that crude oil and natural gas producing zones are separated from drinking water aquifers by thousands of feet and multiple layers of impermeable protective rock barrier.

The makeup of the fluid used in the hydraulic fracturing process is typically more than 99 percent water and sand, and less than 1 percent of highly diluted chemical additives that are typically found in common household items. Lists of chemical additives most typically used in fracture fluids are available to the public, via internet websites and in other publications sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute, the American Exploration and Production Council and other oil and gas trade associations, and are known to the government agencies that regulate the industry. In accordance with federal requirements, Material Safety Data Sheets are maintained on every well-site location for every chemical used in the fracturing process.

While the majority of the sand remains underground to hold open the fractures, a significant percentage of the water and additives flows back from hydraulic fracturing operations. These fluids are then either recycled or safely disposed of at sites that are approved and permitted by the appropriate regulatory authorities. EOG regularly conducts audits of these disposal facilities to ensure compliance with all applicable regulations.


Yes and they have congressional dog and pony show hearings where oil and gas execs and bought and paid for politicians (on both sides!) sit there and lie thru their teeth with a straight face all for the sake of a bit more profit. Save it. Go watch Gasland to see how real people have been affected.
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Quoting seafarer459:

And your solution is?


I don't have a solution but I am sure someone in the oil and gas industry might be able to come up with one. They do have billions of dollars at their disposal along with almost unlimited resources. I suspect that due to their nature of penny pinching, they'd just rather people's water supplies be tainted rather than spend a chunk of change to develop a newer, safer harvesting method. In addition to the inordinate amount of wastewater it generates and the highly toxic makeup of the chemical cocktail used, fracking creates mini-earthquakes which I don't necessarily think is a good thing. I know some may think I am just being hard on big oil and gas but one needs only look to the BP oil spill as a perfect example of a company who decided it was too expensive (a million dollars or so, perhaps?) to equip their rig with the proper safety equipment. Instead, they'd rather spends tens of billions on the back end and ruin parts of the GOM, countless peoples' lives and kill thousands of animals, something that can't be undone. All for the sake of a tiny bit of profit. Unbelievable. Even more unbelievable is that I would be ridiculed for wanting to avoid such things in the future by being good to our environment. Maybe some of you on here who thumb your nose at us "treehuggers" and slap a derisive label on us at every opportunity should go live in a community or region affected by some of these completely avoidable disasters. Maybe then you'd change your tune.
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The Real Facts about Fracture Stimulation: The Technology Behind America’s New Natural Gas Supplies

Link
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Quoting jpsb:
You know it is very difficult to argue with someone that claims global warming causes global cooling.

If the warming causes a disruption in ocean circulation, then the outcome may well indeed cause cooling. However, that seems highly unlikely based on what I've read. Still, it's possible.

Quoting jpsb:
You Seems like you want to have it both ways ;)

So just for the heck of it would you please tell me what GW does not cause? Something nice.

Weather-wise? There's nothing that AGW doesn't play a part in. We're changing the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Since weather takes place in the atmosphere, AGW has some effect on *every* piece of weather on the planet now. I know of no reliable way to separate out how the current weather under the influence of AGW would differ from the current weather without the effects of AGW.

IOW, "cause" is probably too strong a term at this point. But the influence is a undeniable.

EDIT: And to answer your question: If you have a nice spell of weather, you can credit AGW's influence. Although I think that rain will qualify as nice weather for you at this point, no?
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Link

How Hydraulic Fracturing Works

In accordance with state regulations, the wellbore is encased with protective steel and cement, called surface casing, to protect the groundwater. The depth of this surface casing is determined by the level of groundwater protection needed. After the well is drilled to total depth, hydraulic fracturing generally takes place thousands of feet underground, a considerable distance below any drinking water aquifers. Standard company well design practices ensure that crude oil and natural gas producing zones are separated from drinking water aquifers by thousands of feet and multiple layers of impermeable protective rock barrier.

The makeup of the fluid used in the hydraulic fracturing process is typically more than 99 percent water and sand, and less than 1 percent of highly diluted chemical additives that are typically found in common household items. Lists of chemical additives most typically used in fracture fluids are available to the public, via internet websites and in other publications sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute, the American Exploration and Production Council and other oil and gas trade associations, and are known to the government agencies that regulate the industry. In accordance with federal requirements, Material Safety Data Sheets are maintained on every well-site location for every chemical used in the fracturing process.

While the majority of the sand remains underground to hold open the fractures, a significant percentage of the water and additives flows back from hydraulic fracturing operations. These fluids are then either recycled or safely disposed of at sites that are approved and permitted by the appropriate regulatory authorities. EOG regularly conducts audits of these disposal facilities to ensure compliance with all applicable regulations.
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Right now I am looking for a wind power pump to pump water out of my well for my garden.

Back in the old days that was called a windmill. Used to see them everywhere between Dallas and Oklahoma.
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Quoting cajunkid:


Its not nearly as bad as it is made out to be.

You have casing protecting the upper sands.

Also, the technology is improving daily.


Cling to that...
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79. jpsb
Quoting seafarer459:


Ya Know. The AC manufactures a lot of water? Dig a hole, sink a tank, add a pump. Just an idea. Greater minds could devise a ???
Good idea, doing that already at my little beer joint, here at home I rarely use the AC fans work just fine most of the time. My friends all think I am crazy, but I try to get used to the local climate rather then fight it with electric gadgets. My electric bill is normally 50 bucks a month. I took in a friends family will their Ike damaged house was rebuilt, electric bill jumped to $420 a month. yikes! Glad their house is done.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


McLuvincane = right wing moron


Now Now don't be upset, if you liberals have to lick your wounds after the beatings you are getting on every issue is not the right wing people or the tea party's fault. It is Liberal's fault for sticking to the wrong side of the argument.
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Not sure if someone posted this already but I just noticed it...

(Reuters) - A leak from a shallow water crude oil pipeline in the Main Pass Area of the Gulf of Mexico has led Chevron to shut down its offshore Louisiana Main Pass pipeline network, the company said on Tuesday.

Chevron has also shut its Cypress line, the company said.

About 15,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production was shut in due to the pipeline leak, Chevron said. The company said late on Tuesday it will resume partial production within 24 hours.

Chevron did not reply to several requests for additional information about the leak and its operations in the Main Pass Area.

Carol Fagot, a spokeswoman at the Federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE), said the agency was "aware of the report and looking into it," without offering further details.

Both the U.S. Coast Guard and the Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator's Office said they had not been informed of a leak off the coast.

Chevron has two offshore platforms in the Main Pass 299 block, according to the company's website. The site is located in shallow waters about 40 miles east of Venice, Louisiana, and has produced heavy oil, natural gas and sulfur, according to government records.

Chevron said the leak was from a 10-inch riser pipelines in Main Pass Block 299. Riser pipelines normally carry crude from the seabed to production platforms.

Chevron also shut its line known as Cypress since "Main Pass is the only connecting pipeline system currently providing volumes into Cypress," the company said.

The Cypress pipeline feeds a crude terminal known as Empire on the Mississippi River in Louisiana, delivery point for cash crude Heavy Louisiana Sweet. Empire usually handles between 230,000 and 275,000 barrels a day, Chevron's website said.

The Empire terminal was still operating, a trade source said, although it wasn't clear whether flows into the terminal had been disrupted.

The Gulf of Mexico was the site of the worst-ever U.S. offshore oil spill last year when BP's Macondo well released more than 4 million barrels of crude from a blown out well offshore Louisiana.

(Reporting by Janet McGurty, David Sheppard and Joshua Schneyer in New York and Timothy Gardner in Washington; Addtional reporting by Kristen Hays and Erwin Seba in Houston; Writing by Joshua Schneyer; Editing by Phil Berlowitz, Gary Hill)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


now if we could only get it out of the ground without pumping millions of gallons of water and a mix of hundreds of highly toxic chemicals, it would be the perfect stopgap energy source and path to energy independence.


Its not nearly as bad as it is made out to be.

You have casing protecting the upper sands.

Also, the technology is improving daily.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


McLuvincane = right wing moron
Quoting hurricanejunky:


now if we could only get it out of the ground without pumping millions of gallons of water and a mix of hundreds of highly toxic chemicals, it would be the perfect stopgap energy source and path to energy independence.

And your solution is?
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Quoting cajunkid:
Natural Gas...we have vast...vast quantities right here in the good old USA


now if we could only get it out of the ground without pumping millions of gallons of water and a mix of hundreds of highly toxic chemicals, it would be the perfect stopgap energy source and path to energy independence.
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72. jpsb
Quoting Birthmark:

The latter two are true.

The claim of freezing could be true under certain circumstances and depending upon the exact claim.
You know it is very difficult to argue with someone that claims global warming causes global cooling. Seems like you want to have it both ways ;)

So just for the heck of it would you please tell me what GW does not cause? Something nice.
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Natural Gas...we have vast...vast quantities right here in the good old USA
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70. jpsb
Quoting Birthmark:

It appears that you are saying that we can't continue business as usual without severe repercussions. Is that a fair characterization of your position?

Another question: Is there enough fuel for nuclear power plants to do the heavy energy lifting world wide? And for how long? (I seriously don't know the answer to that.)
Opps just saw the second question, I really do not know the answer to that however fuel will be available from mining asteroids fairly soon so I think the fuel problem is solvable.
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Quoting jpsb:
I have been told that Global Warming causes Global Freezing. I kid you not. I have also been told GW causes floods and droughts.

The latter two are true.

The claim of freezing could be true under certain circumstances and depending upon the exact claim.
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Quoting jpsb:
I agree, I have done just about all I can to reduce my carbon foot print, not by design mine you by necessity. I always have my eye out for something I can buy that would replace some of my electric usage. Right now I am looking for a wind power pump to pump water out of my well for my garden. No luck as of yet but one of these days I'll find something.


Ya Know. The AC manufactures a lot of water? Dig a hole, sink a tank, add a pump. Just an idea. Greater minds could devise a ???
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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