Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting seafarer459:
Thank you! For people who want to engage in an intelligent debate, the fact that they can't seem to look past the two words global warming to what it actually entails makes me question why they should even have a voice in the conversation. When you come to a debate armed with nothing but misinformation about climate science you heard on Fox Noise or Glenn Beck's radio show, I think your credibility goes out the window.

Debate? Seems like my way or the highway. EVERY climatologist agrees? Broad brushes cover much, detail nothing.


Sorry if I made the mistake of saying EVERY climate scientist agrees, it's actually just an overwhelming majority. Sorry. As for broad brushing, there is much of that on here and not from me. I am not saying my opinion on climate change is the only one. I have respect for those who question whether we are having an influence on it or to what degree but to ignore the signs of climate change seems rather obtuse.
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Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


Thank you. How would it impact our weather here in NC?


rain and some squally weather..depending on what forms..here is the NOGAPS..the Euro also has been hinting at development too
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Quoting aprinz1979:
A thought for all the AGW believers:

Why don't you do something about it then?
If you believe we are destroying mother earth, why are you in a computer? Why don't you sell your electric / gas powered gadgets and just live off the earth like the AMISH?

You people preach AGW AGW & more AGW but you're still driving your V8's, consuming as much energy as the person who doesn't believe in AGW, and "hurting" mother earth. Heck, some of you even have fuel powered boats so why be hypocritical and keep on preaching?

Just a thought, not insulting anybody so please don't slam me upside the head trying to make excuses for not following what you believe in.



shhhhhh!! Don't say that, don't you know it the liberal world, it's do as I say, not as I do!
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Quoting Birthmark:

It appears that you are saying that we can't continue business as usual without severe repercussions. Is that a fair characterization of your position?

Another question: Is there enough fuel for nuclear power plants to do the heavy energy lifting world wide? And for how long? (I seriously don't know the answer to that.)


Depends on which technology you're talking about. Plants that do not use breeder technology would burn through the Uranium supply in about 100 years or so. By also using breeder technology to recycle spent fuel this can be extended, possibly significantly so. If we develop and deploy thorium based reactors, there is enough Thorium on Earth to last for up to 10,000 years.
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I have been following the back-and-forth on AGW on this blog for a long time (or at least it certainly feels like it) and now I feel like stiring the pot. If I was a creationist I would be very concerned about the possibilty of global warming (AGW or natural) as animals could not evolve to adjust to the changing climate. So how comes those I see here who state they are creationists not seeming to consider even the risk of GW? Why take the risk that so many life forms would be destroyed forever, with no possibility of anything replacing them (given that evolution will not fill in the gaps)?
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Here is Potts TWO, for right now...

Fair to Foul comments persist and will become more vitriolic as High Pressures dominate the craniums of posters and lurkers bringing the latter out of their holes and encouraging counter-productive circulatory spin of a notably damp kind.

These conditions are expected to persist as long as there is Garbage and Gore to wallow in, while the most up-to-date models keep trying to encourage a decent debate.

Outlying models are hesitant to accept the Reality, and keep stressing the need for an increase in the levels of CO2 emissions, because it was once written, ( in Hebrew or Sanscrit or something and translated 12 times) that we are pre-detirmined to be gonner's anyway.

The above Weirdness expected to persist indefinitely.
There are no other areas of interest in the Tropics.

Forecaster..

DUH.
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Quoting ncstorm:


some of the models are predicting a low off the NC coast this weekend..



Thank you. How would it impact our weather here in NC?
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
A thought for all the AGW believers:

Why don't you do something about it then?
If you believe we are destroying mother earth, why are you in a computer? Why don't you sell your electric / gas powered gadgets and just live off the earth like the AMISH?

You people preach AGW AGW & more AGW but you're still driving your V8's, consuming as much energy as the person who doesn't believe in AGW, and "hurting" mother earth. Heck, some of you even have fuel powered boats so why be hypocritical and keep on preaching?

Just a thought, not insulting anybody so please don't slam me upside the head trying to make excuses for not following what you believe in.
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:


I agree with this whole heartedly! People think it's so easy to just shut down fossil fueled plants and rely on renewables. Well that may work for states with those resources available. As far as Texas is concerned, this just will not work yet. Until we can get people to ease up on their energy consumption, we need reliable baseload generation to power the masses.

Wind isn't reliable and usually isn't available in the areas with the largest populations. Transporting wind energy from west Texas undergoes huge loses, making its generation a minimal addition to our thirsty grid system.


Nobody EVER said going to renewables is easy. It costs money and resources. From Wikipedia, Wind Power In Texas:

Wind is a highly variable resource. With proper understanding it can be incorporated into an electric utility's generation mix. When providing for the generating capacity to meet the peak demand in summer, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages the Texas power grid, counts wind at 8.7% of nameplate capacity.[12] Many areas in Texas have wind conditions allowing for development of wind power generation. The number of commercially attractive sites will expand as wind turbine technology improves and development costs continue to drop.[13]
Texas farmers may lease their land to wind developers for either a set rental per turbine or for a small percentage of gross annual revenue from the project.[14] This offers farmers a fresh revenue stream without impacting traditional farming and grazing practices. Although leasing arrangements vary widely, the U. S. Government Accountability Office reported in 2004 that a farmer who leases land to a wind project developer can generally obtain royalties of $3,000 to $5,000 per turbine per year in lease payments. These figures are rising as larger wind turbines are being produced and installed.[15]
The wind power industry is also creating thousands of jobs for communities and for the state.[16] Wind technology and the various aspects of producing electricity from wind power can help to keep employment in Texas after the rigs stop producing oil.[11]
Terrorism and industrial accidents can be potential threats to the large, centrally located, power plants that provide most of Texas’ electricity. Should one of these plants be damaged, repairs could take more than a year, possibly creating power shortages on a scale that Texans have never experienced before. Coal trains and gas pipelines are also vulnerable to disruption. However, wind power plants are quickly installed and repaired. The modular structure of a wind farm also means that if one turbine is damaged, the overall output of the plant is not significantly affected.[17]
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Quoting twincomanche:
More taxes will make the economy better. Howzat for starters.

During Ronald Regan's years (Republican), my ex-husband and I paid some serious taxes but the economy was great. Had our best financials years ever under that administration. Go figure...HIGH taxes, good economy.
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Quoting Minnemike:
yeah, chemistry and physics have no tact whatsoever... you right

Aww....Jeeze... Ya got me. Chemistry and Physics determines the next "IDOL" winner. We are talking people here.
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Quoting BobinTampa:



I've learned to ignore the AGW debates. People have picked their sides and no amount of typing in the comments section on a blog is going to change that.

The problem is that when the tropics are quiet, Dr. M discusses AGW in his update, AND they've banned most of the people who can actually make these lulls entertaining -- this place really sucks.


big time!
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The future trend of this Blog.

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Quoting AvidWeatherHound:
ncstorm, is there still something brewing off NC coast?


some of the models are predicting a low off the NC coast this weekend..

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Boy, the climate has certianly changed on this blog.
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Quoting BobinTampa:



I've learned to ignore the AGW debates. People have picked their sides and no amount of typing in the comments section on a blog is going to change that.

The problem is that when the tropics are quiet, Dr. M discusses AGW in his update, AND they've banned most of the people who can actually make these lulls entertaining -- this place really sucks.
+1
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151. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is intetesting to see that scenario by GFS,but I would wait for more runs and more model support to then be a credible possibbility. By more model support I would like to see ECMWF on board.


I would like to see persistence. The GFS has been jumping all around with CV storms.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm starting to miss the $10 I spent renewing my paid membership here. sigh.



Amen!!!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Interestingly the Nogaps was the first to show development of a tropical system in the CATL while moving it west. Also, the systems seems to be the result of two disturbances merging together, which the Nogaps also showed.
GFS is now agreeing with such scenario. Not that it is going to happen for sure, but there is the probability of something threatening the Eastern Caribbean.


Is interesting to see that scenario by GFS,but I would wait for more runs and more model support to then be a credible possibbility. By more model support I would like to see ECMWF on board.
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Quoting Jax82:


+10000000

No more info on tropics, more info on a debate. I'd rather see endless loops of wind azimuth displays.



I've learned to ignore the AGW debates. People have picked their sides and no amount of typing in the comments section on a blog is going to change that.

The problem is that when the tropics are quiet, Dr. M discusses AGW in his update, AND they've banned most of the people who can actually make these lulls entertaining -- this place really sucks.
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"The claim … is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me is that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this 'warming' period," his email message said.-Dr. Ivar Giaever

Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Digust Over GoreBull Warming
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ncstorm, is there still something brewing off NC coast?
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
145. JLPR2
Disturbance taking shape southeast of the CV islands.
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144. JLPR2
Quoting ncstorm:


your post will get lost in the GW discussion..I stopped trying hours ago to talk about tropics


That's why the GW discussion took over, people gave up.

Come on weather!
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Quoting seafarer459:
The AGW people, have themselves to blame. Had you all just started with, the globe is warming... No problem, But NOOOO. Y'all just had to start with, It's man's (your) fault. TACT, you fools, TACT.
yeah, chemistry and physics have no tact whatsoever... you right
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142. JLPR2
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
The GFS up to day 7-8 looks very credible.
It put the Central/Southern Lesser Antilles in danger of a hurricane with a weakening high that will put PR/DR at high risk.



Interestingly the Nogaps was the first to show development of a tropical system in the CATL while moving it west. Also, the system seems to be the result of two disturbances merging together, which the Nogaps also showed.
GFS is now agreeing with such scenario. Not that it is going to happen for sure, but there is the probability of something threatening the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
TS MARIA. 36a

200 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA MOVING BY BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES





Sill at

14-2-2

but for how long?


your post will get lost in the GW discussion..I stopped trying hours ago to talk about tropics
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Quoting cajunkid:
The Real Facts about Fracture Stimulation: The Technology Behind America’s New Natural Gas Supplies

Link


Right from the beginning you can see that this is spin, not a blatant fact oriented article. They are SELLING this to an unsuspecting public. I haven't made a personal decision on right or wrong, but the methodology reeks of the same stuff we have been sold in the past...
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TS MARIA. 36a

200 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA MOVING BY BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES





Sill at

14-2-2

but for how long?
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The AGW people, have themselves to blame. Had you all just started with, the globe is warming... No problem, But NOOOO. Y'all just had to start with, It's man's (your) fault. TACT, you fools, TACT.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm starting to miss the $10 I spent renewing my paid membership here. sigh.

Lol...Thats almost enough for a gallon of gas..jk..The Caribbean Sea could get interesting soon...
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The GFS up to day 7-8 looks very credible.
It put the Central/Southern Lesser Antilles  in danger of a hurricane with a weakening high that will put  PR/DR at high risk.
Quoting JLPR2:
264hrs...

This is the GFS's imagination at work, in other words, long range isn't accurate.

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134. Jax82
Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm starting to miss the $10 I spent renewing my paid membership here. sigh.



+10000000

No more info on tropics, more info on a debate. I'd rather see endless loops of wind azimuth displays.
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Does anyone know of any sites that would have past atmospheric conditions for winter seasons? I was wondering if it is possible to find potential analogue winter seasons for the US, similar to how we are able to identify potential analogue hurricane seasons. The only thing that comes to my mind, though is previous el nino/la nina cycles.
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Quoting MNhockeymama:


And there's no little battery at the bottom of each wind turbine that holds the energy - if the wind doesn't blow, it has to be backed up by traditional energy sources. The lines for the transmission of wind energy have to be built. In Southern MN there's thousands of wind turbines that aren't HOOKED UP INTO THE GRID. Xcel was required to have a certain number of turbines built by a certain year, but have extra time to build the lines to connect them into the grid. So you have thousands of turbines turning but not actually generating electricity; wearing out the turbines that only have about 10 year lifecycle anyway, not to mention how many turbines it takes to generate the same power generated by coal or natural gas. It is an expensive boondoggle.



A few weeks back I read an article about a company that wants to use recycled Toyota Prius batteries at the base of wind turbines as backup. The idea was to take batteries that no longer had sufficient charge capability for car usage, wire them together, add some control circuitry and produce cheap back-up power packs. I thought it was a great idea.
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Renewable Energy Can Meet Global Demand
Link
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I'm starting to miss the $10 I spent renewing my paid membership here. sigh.

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


You raise a point that seems to stick with so many people as an obstacle - cost. We spends hundreds of billions of dollars per year on a bloated defense budget that is greater than the next 16 countries combined, corporate tax subsidies for corporations who don't need it, corporate advertising abroad and the list goes on. Many people seem OK with their tax dollars going into those black holes but lose their mind when presented with the thought of using that same money to radically change our energy portfolio for positive reasons. I can't understand it.


I know you don't like the idea of big defense budgets, but without the military there's no one to keep the bad guys from coming in and blowing up all your shiny new technologies.

Also...remember that a huge proportion of the technologies you need to solve these problems come either directly or indirectly from research funded by the military and NASA.
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Quoting mossyhead:
Well, the hurricane season must be over. Usually politics will not show up here much unless the season is over. Nobody changes their mind due to these exchanges. I popped on here and I wondered why there were so many people hidden.


Cuz most of us lurking don't want to get involved in the Left vs. Right spew that comes out of the mouths of many here. You would think they would agree to disagree and move on. You know who the Independents are on here because they are all lurkers till the season heats up and never get involved when the GW crap Roller Derby starts between the Left and Right. This site always blows when it gets to the point.....I will go back to lurking until the tropics heat back up.

Cool...Mossyhead....I'm in FWB. Another local on this forum...:)

Out for now...
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Quoting oreodogsghost:
In Texas, we privatize everything and watch results and performance go down the tubes. For example, most of our charter schools are a joke, but they keep sucking at the taxpayer spigot.
That is because they still have to operate under government (state level) mandates.

Don't think for a minute they get that money with no strings attached.
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125. DFWjc
Quoting JNCali:
Climate Change.. formerly known as SEASONS!


LOL! Yeah who knew that when it got to mid September, it would, (gasp), get cooler outside...

Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Quoting twincomanche:
Talk about a potential climate changer. Taking all that energy out of the ocean. They had better be careful about that idea.

How does installing a Generator underwater diminish the energy of the ocean?
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The Climate Reality Project is what its acronym says CRaP. Faith of the faithful is a scary thing in science.
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Quoting carcar1967:


Both the far right and the far left need to get a clue.

I do not think it is right for some congressman to decide what kind of energy solution to use when they have a stake/investment or take campaign contributions from the many different energy providers.

Instead of looking at things in an unbiased way, they will vote what is in their own best interest.

I fully agree that we need to find other means to generate power with out burning coal, oil, Natural gas. But I am not aware of any technology that can take it's place at the current cost level. Everything we eat or buy has used fossil fuels.

So we have to gradually reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.


You raise a point that seems to stick with so many people as an obstacle - cost. We spends hundreds of billions of dollars per year on a bloated defense budget that is greater than the next 16 countries combined, corporate tax subsidies for corporations who don't need it, corporate advertising abroad and the list goes on. Many people seem OK with their tax dollars going into those black holes but lose their mind when presented with the thought of using that same money to radically change our energy portfolio for positive reasons. I can't understand it.
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So how will AGW regulations get enforced?.. Is China or the developing countries going to shut down their energy production because it's emitting too much CO2? What could possible motivate them?
Aside from the formation of an armed UN Climate police force with the authority to use force, I don't see how this is going to work. We can pass all the UN resolutions we want, we can boycott and levy penalties until we are blue in the face. Governments are not going to slow down their economic growth because that would guarantee their removal by their populace.
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Thank you! For people who want to engage in an intelligent debate, the fact that they can't seem to look past the two words global warming to what it actually entails makes me question why they should even have a voice in the conversation. When you come to a debate armed with nothing but misinformation about climate science you heard on Fox Noise or Glenn Beck's radio show, I think your credibility goes out the window.

Debate? Seems like my way or the highway. EVERY climatologist agrees? Broad brushes cover much, detail nothing.
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Here in southwest Nova Scotia we are getting a passing kiss from Maria. Overcast, 86% humidity, possibility of drizzle, and breezy from the southeast with that certain feel to the air that only comes with a tropical system.

With luck, this will be my only taste of the storm season.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
Quoting aprinz1979:
I read somewhere a couple month back they are trying to design some huge turbines to sink off the east coast so power could be generated using the Gulf Stream currents. Did anyone else see that?
Talk about a potential climate changer. Taking all that energy out of the ocean. They had better be careful about that idea.
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I read somewhere a couple month back they are trying to design some huge turbines to sink off the east coast so power could be generated using the Gulf Stream currents. Did anyone else see that?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.