Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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where in the heck is politics mentioned in the blog header?
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not in cool waters yet, still at 28-29 °C, which is plenty to sustain Maria for the next 12-24 hours.

Soooo. Do you think cane status is out of the question?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seafarer459:

Aw Geeze...This stings
Link

Everyone knows when glaciers melt cold fresh water sinks into adjacent waters possibly disrupting thermo haline ocean currents which provide us with our wunderful climate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE MARIA:

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA FROM ARNOLDS
COVE TO JONES HARBOR.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF AVALON
PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 65.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 210SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 330SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 65.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 120SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 46.7N 54.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 54.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 320SE 270SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting emcf30:
I am Definitely not taking any sides of the AGW debate. Here is a video I found.


Any chance of finding a way to lose it again? :)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting quasigeostropic:


A blogger and a MET myself, I've been here on the blogs since 2005 but have taken a long break. Many longtime bloggers(with good reputations) from here have left because this site is out of control with their "rating system" which the AGW crowd loves to use against the skeptics. Also the egotism that pervades the blogs is irritating. I've watched this blog evolve for more than 5 yrs. Used to be the BEST place on the web to blog. With that, I will not contribute to WU getting anymore free advertisement by me(when you blog or make a blog here, WU is advertised!)




Quoting hurricanejunky:


That is huge crock of crap. I personally know of three people on here who have been astro-turfed by the skeptics simply because of political or ideological differences not because of the content of the post. There are bots on here doing that to people. I don't think anyone on either side should click minus on every post by a particular user because you don't like them. Those ratings should be based solely on the content of the post.


Quoting Neapolitan:

I saw where you wrote this over on Levi's blog, and I have to say that the facts don't seem to bear you out. Anyone coming to this blog without logging in, or with their filter set high, won't see comments from the most vocal supporters of the overwhelming science behind AGWT, including Some1Has2BtheRookie, Xyrus2000, yonzabam, greentortuloni, and myself. By the same token, comments by many of the most outspoken deniers of that science are completely visible to one and all. (Most of the others hidden are simply those who've engaged in enough trollish behavior that they've offended everyone equally.)

I hate to see anyone leave because they feel slighted. I'll say this: my comments have been hidden for months, and I have often been ridiculed openly by contrarians--but I'm still here. This blog and the comments are mostly a great source of valuable information, if you ask me.



I would agree with the "out of control" ratings system. It does nothing but promote the same social Darwinism on this blog as is present in high school - the formation of "cliques" and the vilification of individuals that do not "belong" to them. IMHO the whole ratings system does nothing but stifle open and honest debate among the members here.

I do agree with both hurricanejunky and Neopolitan. I have come on here asking questions pertaining to climate change models and potential effects on tropical weather activity, and been pounced upon. Oftentimes people's opinion and/or interpretation of data are vilified - and people from both sides of the spectrum are guilty of this.

Last but not least, is that I agree with Grothar. We all need to develop a sense of humor, and stop fighting with one another. It is extremely unproductive, and serves no purpose but to further reinforce the extreme positions that people have.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


When you can loan money to an industry and it saves close to 2 million jobs in an economy that is bleeding jobs like a stuck pig, I think it makes sense. The money has been mostly paid back so it wasn't given to the auto industry with no strings attached as it was under previous administrations.


Key word, (plural)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting hurricanejunky:

Whatever Doug. No one in the history of the country has ever made an investment in something that failed, right? What about the auto industry loans? That's a great success story. Don't hear you talking about that. Also don't hear any mention of the Green energy success stories of which there are many.

Why don't you try watching something other than Fox Noise? Maybe you'd learn something. Your man crush JB is on there now so you should be a happy camper



Also. In my opinion, our government shouldn't be investing in private industry. Let the natural ebb and flo of free enterprise sort out the winners and losers so that our government isn't gambling with taxpayer money. Is that such an extreme position?

Couldn't agree more with you Doug.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not gunna probe into who is right or wrong here. But HJ, I've respected you in the past. But your tone, demeanor, and utter disrespect for anyone that doesn't agree with you makes you look foolish.


On a more pressing note, euro ensemble means are tending toward an A-B high conducive to westward movement in the atlantic. Should continue to see waves making it across for the foreseeable future.
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Quoting seafarer459:

Aw Geeze...This stings
Link

Why, are you a fan of abrupt climate change?

(One of my posts above states clearly that I thought abrupt climate change was unlikely. But I hadn't seen that article. So thanks.)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting sarahjola:
think it may be from fronts comming in?


No, probably from a tropical wave entering from the east or just the buildup of moisture in the area that will be taking place in a few days from now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
I am Definitely not taking any sides of the AGW debate. Here is a video I found.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gotta watch this area of the world in 7-10 days or less from now...May see some Caribbean development before months end.

think it may be from fronts comming in?
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Link

Sorry, check it out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Uh, yes clean energy is absolutely clean. There is no pollution or waste that results from those energy sources. I was citing the Hudson river tidal turbines because they have produced 80 Megawatt hours for over two years now. That is nothing to sneeze at and will add one more viable clean energy source to our portfolio.
80 Megawatt hours equals 3.33 megawatts a help yes a solution no. One power plant can produce over 2400 megawatts. BTW you should go to a mine or a processing plant and tell us all how clean the process is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see a lot of outrage here about the $500 million lost to Solyndra.

I think it's worth mentioning that 8 days after Solyndra announced they were filing Chapter 11, the FBI raided their offices to investigate possible fraud. So... yeah, us taxpayers got screwed on this deal and guess what... our taxpayer-funded FBI is on the case, as they should be.

Now, what I haven't seen is any outrage over a report released just two weeks ago which states:

"As much as $60 billion in U.S. funds has been lost to waste and fraud in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past decade through lax oversight of contractors, poor planning and payoffs to warlords and insurgents, an independent panel investigating U.S. wartime spending estimates."

Source 1

Source 2


I haven't heard anything about FBI raids on military contractors' offices yet, but let's hope they're in the works, right?

Let's review:

- $0.5 billion wasted by a fraudulent "green" company
- company is under investigation by FBI
- citizens are (rightly) outraged

- $31 to $60 billion wasted by military contractors
- no announced investigation
- no outrage by anyone (that I've heard)

I'm a little confused...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting hurricanejunky:

Whatever Doug. No one in the history of the country has ever made an investment in something that failed, right? What about the auto industry loans? That's a great success story. Don't hear you talking about that. Also don't hear any mention of the Green energy success stories of which there are many.

Why don't you try watching something other than Fox Noise? Maybe you'd learn something. Your man crush JB is on there now so you should be a happy camper



Also. In my opinion, our government shouldn't be investing in private industry. Let the natural ebb and flo of free enterprise sort out the winners and losers so that our government isn't gambling with taxpayer money. Is that such an extreme position?
Thought the same thing when we were told by the government that 'some industries' were too big to fail...what a crock of crap. If a business fails, it fails.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Chances are that Ophelia develops early next week in the eastern Atlantic from a vigorous tropical wave.

The global models still aren't too enthusiastic with the Caribbean development we have been anticipating, however, they do continue to indicate that favorable conditions will be in place for some sort of cyclogenesis in the coming days and weeks.

Interesting path depicted on the 12z GFS for Ophelia. As it enters the Caribbean it is confined south of 15˚N and still manages to recurve towards the northeast before 70˚W...in September! That would definitely be interesting to say the least.


Stay and post weather with me :D

I'm the only one..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting hcubed:


And we just sunk half a trillion dollars into a "green" energy company that has now gone bankrupt.

Think about how many billion dollar weather disasters we could have covered for the price of supporting one failed company.


565 MILLION DOLLARS,NOT BILLION,NOT TRILLION
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link


makes since to me!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, it pretty much has - but as some storms do not intensify to that extent even in what we perceive to be perfect conditions, are we missing an ingredient?

And I think you kinda answered your own question, hydrus. You're right, climate is inexorably tied to the weather, but some dislike the conversation about the anthropogenic factor in climate alteration which inevitably creeps in.



I think that could well be a good hunch. Even if the season only adds one to three more storms, one of those could be a dangerous and potential landfalling hurricane. While it's a worn cliche by now, it is still correct: 'only takes one'


I don't know about you, but I think we've already had one to make this season memorable. Did we already forget about Irene? 55 people dead 20 Billion + in Damage across the Caribbean and the U.S. Let the rest go out to sea. We already have had a devastating season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AegirsGal:
I think the current debate going on here blog could be a healthy one if: each person who posts understands that regardless of what position or opinion they hold will be disagreed with and possibly insulted. I would prefer some originality in the use of rhetoric, using the same talking points as the talking heads on TV or regurgitated by politicians is getting really stale.

Good arguments (on both sides of an issue) need extrinsic evidence (i.e. factual information) not intrinsic. (i.e. opinions and 'feelings').

My parting shot is this: if you can't take the reality of being disagreed with, don't post your opinion.


I 100% agree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
One might think a tropical weather board is an inappropriate place to spew political venom of any color. I would hope those who wish to speak of politics would find a political board to continue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chances are that Ophelia develops early next week in the eastern Atlantic from a vigorous tropical wave.

The global models still aren't too enthusiastic with the Caribbean development we have been anticipating, however, they do continue to indicate that favorable conditions will be in place for some sort of cyclogenesis in the coming days and weeks.

Interesting path depicted on the 12z GFS for Ophelia. As it enters the Caribbean it is confined south of 15˚N and still manages to recurve towards the northeast before 70˚W...in September! That would definitely be interesting to say the least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Didn't hear that "head of the line" BS when banks were paying bonuses to their executives before paying back the TARP money which was a BUSH started program.
Your hypocrisy is absolutely disgusting.
and yours as well! why is it that when a fact is thrown in people resort to " well bush did it"? what, is everyone five and feeling like mom is catching them in the act? let me give you some good ole mom advice "2 wrongs don't make a right" and " if bush jumps off a bridge will obama follow?" its been 3 years. its time obama take the credit for his doing. i didn't like bush and a lot of his actions either, and i went as far as to protest bush in new orleans. but i guess all you can see is party lines. and you dare speak of hypocrisy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not sure who is lying to whom, but the previous administration did not cancel nor deny the Solyndra loan request.

From yesterday's sworn testimony of Jonathan Silver, Executive Director of the Loan Programs Office at the DOE:

"Solyndra submitted its initial application in 2006, and much of the extensive due diligence on the transaction was conducted between 2006 and the end of 2008. By late 2008, Solyndra was considered by those involved in the DOE loan programs to be the project most advanced in the due diligence process, and the likely recipient of the program’s first loan guarantee. In fact, by the time the Obama Administration took office in late January 2009, the loan programs’ staff had already established a goal of, and timeline for, issuing the company a conditional loan guarantee commitment in March 2009.

"After the Obama Administration took office, the loan programs’ staff, and their advisors, continued their comprehensive review of the transaction and, in March 2009, on the exact timeline that had been developed during the Bush Administration, the program issued Solyndra a conditional commitment for a $535 million loan guarantee. Subsequently, in September 2009, following several more months of rigorous and comprehensive due diligence and documentation by the loan programs’ staff and external advisors, and the raising of almost $200 million of additional private investment by the company, the transaction reached financial close and DOE formally issued its loan guarantee.

"Although I was not at the Department when the Solyndra loan guarantee was considered or issued, it is my understanding that the transaction went through nearly three years of rigorous and exhaustive internal and external due diligence before any taxpayer funds were put at risk."


Also, This timeline of the whole mess.

I'm not saying the current administration did no wrong; if evidence of any is found, there should and will be repercussions. But facts are facts, and they alone should dictate the course of action.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13604
I think the current debate going on here blog could be a healthy one if: each person who posts understands that regardless of what position or opinion they hold will be disagreed with and possibly insulted. I would prefer some originality in the use of rhetoric, using the same talking points as the talking heads on TV or regurgitated by politicians is getting really stale.

Good arguments (on both sides of an issue) need extrinsic evidence (i.e. factual information) not intrinsic. (i.e. opinions and 'feelings').

My parting shot is this: if you can't take the reality of being disagreed with, don't post your opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91 °F here today for the high temperature...Expected to be no higher than 68 °F tomorrow.

FALL!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting Birthmark:

Take your time. I won't tell you how long it took me to digest it all. And it's not vanity that keeps me from telling. :)

Simplest explanation:
-CO2 is a greenhouse gas (GHG)
-GHGs retain heat
-Humans are pumping out about 30 billion tons of CO2/year
-Atmospheric CO2 has increase nearly 40% in the Industrial Era
-The type of carbon (C) in the CO2 tells us that burning of fossil fuels is the chief culprit in the increase.

That isn't anywhere near a complete description, but that's the essence of it. Every bit of it is more than adequately supported by the science.

Aw Geeze...This stings
Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know its sad when the kid (me) has to try to control the adults.

Come on...You guys are acting like 2 year olds.



Very well said!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:

Whatever Doug. No one in the history of the country has ever made an investment in something that failed, right? What about the auto industry loans? That's a great success story. Don't hear you talking about that. Also don't hear any mention of the Green energy success stories of which there are many.

Why don't you try watching something other than Fox Noise? Maybe you'd learn something. Your man crush JB is on there now so you should be a happy camper



Also. In my opinion, our government shouldn't be investing in private industry. Let the natural ebb and flo of free enterprise sort out the winners and losers so that our government isn't gambling with taxpayer money. Is that such an extreme position?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know its sad when the kid (me) has to try to control the adults.

Come on...You guys are acting like 2 year olds.



Check your mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gotta watch this area of the world in 7-10 days or less from now...May see some Caribbean development before months end.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.