Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

Share this Blog
31
+

Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 467 - 417

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

These darn events are always throwing a wrench in the works:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yes Indeed... I might have a different opinion than someone else does about an issue, but I can drink beer with anyone. With the stipulation that they are pulling for LSU tonight against MS. State. Just Joking I like the competition as well.

Finally got Hurricane Maria I see. It's hard to believe that we are in the peak week of the season with such a lack of activity.


And it should stay quiet in the near term unless there's a surprise or two.

Did you see Auburn's War Eagle crash into the stadium glass during the pre-game flight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CJ5:


I agree with the sentiment. I for one am not worried about global warming. I think it is time for mother earth to hit the reset button. I am prepared as one can be for that. What this planet needs is a biblical flood event. Maybe global warming will be that event.


Me neither. I'm fascinated by the subject, but, at my age, I won't live to see the most extreme effects.

It's today's young children who will live in a world devastated by climate change. And their grandchildren will see coastal cities around the world erased by rising sea levels.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When my lizard saw this he started making a new sign for himself. "Death Valley or Bust!". Seems he is planning a trip. He said something about there was more water there than here. .... He might be right.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Just for a change, can we discuss the weather?

What are the models predicting for Maria's intensity for the next couple of days? Is there a chance she will remain a hurricane long enough to cause serious problems in Newfoundland?


It is likely that Maria will strengthen over the next 12-24 hours under relatively favorable conditions. It has built up an eyewall, which should make strengthening a lot easy for the storm. The storm has about 12-24 hours left of warm ocean temperatures and moderate wind shear. After that, wind shear is expected to increase significantly, and water temperatures will also begin to drop off significantly. As a result, Maria should be weakening as it approaches Newfoundland. However, it is still possible that Maria is a weak hurricane by the time it reaches Newfoundland. If not, it will likely be a strong tropical storm. I'd expect the problems in Newfoundland would be heavy rain and gusty winds, since they will be on the northwestern side of the system, and it isn't expected to pass directly over the area.

However, that may change..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting OviedoWatcher:


There was a global warming argument, unfortunately it has just ended up as a series of personal attacks over the last half hour.


It wasn't AGW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Caribbean has been rather tranquil over the past week and the result has been SSTs warming to 29-31C. With the focus of tropical activity switching to this area of the world soon, the above statement is not the best news.



SSTs:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atl134:
I don't even have to read the comments to imagine there's global warming argument... so how about something we can all agree on... that is a heck of a mustache John Zavalney has.
its great! even if he's mad he still looks sooo happy. lol! even if he punched me in the face i'd have to tell him how nice his mustache is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Irene'05 holds the record,she waited 11 days for hurricane status

Thanks. But according to Irene's official TCR, the storm dropped back to TD status after 24 hours as a TS, and stayed that way for nearly three days before becoming a TS again for just 16 consecutive TWOs. This year's Maria, however, has kept herself at TS strength the entire time (though we'll know for sure when the season is over and the TCR is released). Do you know of any storms which have done that for that long?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dropped in to see what's happening during a tropical cyclone lull. Is anyone moderating this WEATHER reader's comments board? It appears everyone is watching the garbage cable news political shows (yawn) instead of the weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I checked advisory archive,and Irene'05 waited 42 advisory times for cane status
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember to catch Climate Reality Project Live tonight at 7pm on Current TV. Go to Current.com for more info.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
why is the tropics so quiet right now? is this the end of the run as far as africa is concerned? someone said before that we need to watch the gulf or caribbean for development in the next week or so. does this mean that a front will cause possible development or will the caribbean spark up a storm? tia!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just for a change, can we discuss the weather?

What are the models predicting for Maria's intensity for the next couple of days? Is there a chance she will remain a hurricane long enough to cause serious problems in Newfoundland?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StAugustineFL:






OMG!.. Guess you didn't catch that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
443. CJ5
Quoting Trouper415:
-We have cut down 95% of worlds rainforests
-We have killed 90% of large ocean fish
-Coral is in devastating decline
-2 billion people around the world hardly have food to
eat
-We are in a planetary species extinction at a rate faster than when the dinosaurs went extinct
-Oil is becoming more and more scarce
-Wars abound
-People are losing their homes and their jobs
-people hardly have time to spend with their families because we are worked so hard
-The list goes on....

the solutions to all of these non-arguable critical issues ALSO solve climate change.

I don't know why people even argue about climate change anymore. If it exists or not, or if it is human induced or not, who cares.

It is time to focus on solutions which strive to resolve ALL of these issues at the same time.

Planet is in big trouble, and so is our civilation

Peace to all


I agree with the sentiment. I for one am not worried about global warming. I think it is time for mother earth to hit the reset button. I am prepared as one can be for that. What this planet needs is a biblical flood type event. Maybe global warming will be that event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
go maria! and keep going.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maria has finally gotten her settlement from her abusive drunken husband Wind Shear, her divorce has been finalized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrMixon:


Well, not meaning this in a bad way, but I hope you aren't in management... ;)

Either way, you make an important point - some people refuse to admit they were wrong even in the face of incontrovertible evidence.


I was joking of course. Just needed a little humor in the blog. Glad u didn't get fired
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maria was a tropical storm for 33 consecutive TWOs before becoming a hurricane for the first time. That's 8.25 days, or 198 hours. I'm not sure whether that's a record of some kind, but I would imagine it's one of the longest incubation periods ever. (For comparison's sake, Irene became a hurricane on her sixth TWO, and Katia on her eighth. Last year's extended-adolescence leader was Earl, which didn't become a hurricane until its 17th TWO.)

Irene'05 holds the record,she waited 11 days for hurricane status
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its likely that Maria will become a strong Category 1 hurricane, probably between 85-90 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
-We have cut down 95% of worlds rainforests
-We have killed 90% of large ocean fish
-Coral is in devastating decline
-2 billion people around the world hardly have food to
eat
-We are in a planetary species extinction at a rate faster than when the dinosaurs went extinct
-Oil is becoming more and more scarce
-Wars abound
-People are losing their homes and their jobs
-people hardly have time to spend with their families because we are worked so hard
-The list goes on....

the solutions to all of these non-arguable critical issues ALSO solve climate change.

I don't know why people even argue about climate change anymore. If it exists or not, or if it is human induced or not, who cares.

It is time to focus on solutions which strive to resolve ALL of these issues at the same time.

Planet is in big trouble, and so is our civilation

Peace to all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobinTampa:
Hey can someone post the radar loop for NOLA???




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nice to see Maria finally decide to move out of Dodge - she was getting very old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Uh, yes clean energy is absolutely clean. There is no pollution or waste that results from those energy sources. I was citing the Hudson river tidal turbines because they have produced 80 Megawatt hours for over two years now. That is nothing to sneeze at and will add one more viable clean energy source to our portfolio.
Quoting nymore:
80 Megawatt hours equals 3.33 megawatts a help yes a solution no. One power plant can produce over 2400 megawatts. BTW you should go to a mine or a processing plant and tell us all how clean the process is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
She made it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maria was a tropical storm for 33 consecutive TWOs before becoming a hurricane for the first time. That's 8.25 days, or 198 hours. I'm not sure whether that's a record of some kind, but I would imagine it's one of the longest incubation periods ever. (For comparison's sake, Irene became a hurricane on her sixth TWO, and Katia on her eighth. Last year's extended-adolescence leader was Earl, which didn't become a hurricane until its 17th TWO.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seafarer459:

Soooo. Do you think cane status is out of the question?


It's a hurricane right now...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Yall do know we have Hurricane Maria right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 467 - 417

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
71 °F
Overcast