Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DFWjc:


Taking a break from weather for a sec.... Just wanted to let you know I work at Cowboys Stadium for Traffic and the people from Louisiana (cheering for LSU) were some of the nicest people I've met. It was a joy talking with some of the fans and the band was awesome, such power with their music... Also enjoyed the duck gumbo a fan gave me, LOL!!!


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
No offense but I've given up on Texas.It's like you keep hoping and their still not recieving.IMO they'll get it when they get it.They better hope they have a La nina year like 2007.


Not quite on 2007....It was El Nino that gave us rain during spring/early summer. The rain abruptly stopped in fall of 2007 (La Nina) and did not resume until El Nino in fall of 2009..

Kinda confusing.....The actual weather tends to "lag" after formation...

I'm not offended. I get offended when local TV weather people make it sound like it's going to rain. Guess they are just making a bunch of noise to get rating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting daddyjames:









I would agree with the "out of control" ratings system. It does nothing but promote the same social Darwinism on this blog as is present in high school - the formation of "cliques" and the vilification of individuals that do not "belong" to them. IMHO the whole ratings system does nothing but stifle open and honest debate among the members here.

I do agree with both hurricanejunky and Neopolitan. I have come on here asking questions pertaining to climate change models and potential effects on tropical weather activity, and been pounced upon. Oftentimes people's opinion and/or interpretation of data are vilified - and people from both sides of the spectrum are guilty of this.

Last but not least, is that I agree with Grothar. We all need to develop a sense of humor, and stop fighting with one another. It is extremely unproductive, and serves no purpose but to further reinforce the extreme positions that people have.


Agree with Daddy James, try to learn with the valuable information Dr. Masters provides, ignore the political issues, and respect both sides of the spectrum and of course follow my believes ,enriching my knowledge. In my case I worry about the future of the planet, thus appreciate the blog for the insights on the subject.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:

It's a ferret.

No wait...actually it's TWO ferrets.


Ferrets or Fairies?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
513. DFWjc
Quoting StormPro:

With drier air filtering in NOLA tonight I think it is a super night for a beer or 10 and watching LSU man-handle Ms St....GEAUX TIGERS and DRY AIR!! Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot


Taking a break from weather for a sec.... Just wanted to let you know I work at Cowboys Stadium for Traffic and the people from Louisiana (cheering for LSU) were some of the nicest people I've met. It was a joy talking with some of the fans and the band was awesome, such power with their music... Also enjoyed the duck gumbo a fan gave me, LOL!!!
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Looks like you have a wave going through there or something, based on IR.

Quoting caribbeantracker01:

yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First time I have ever seen my area's forecast say "Clear" in months.
Tonight
76 °F
Clear
Tomorrow
86 °F
Clear
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting caribbeantracker01:

yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
lol i know that feeling :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree. You'd think someone had insulted someone else's mother or something. Sheesh.

Quoting StormPro:

...Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aprinz1979:


why the question mark after no? Typo or you don't know either?


I'm hoping not, lol. I've not seen anything on his blog that would suggest such, unless he posted on the main blog while I was at school earlier today.

I certainly hope he hasn't left..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32803
Quoting xXAviatorXx:
In Antigua here. Always great to find another islander :)

yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
Quoting DFWjc:


Okay, here's why I'm not.

It's September.. for the last 15 years I've lived in NE Texas and it always rains after mid October. The rain will come when the temperature drops. IMO
I've been wishing Texas some rain.And it never came.We'll see what the fall and winter holds.And if Texs doesn't get no rin in that time period then Texas is screwed.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17798
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yes Indeed... I might have a different opinion than someone else does about an issue, but I can drink beer with anyone. With the stipulation that they are pulling for LSU tonight against MS. State. Just Joking I like the competition as well.

Finally got Hurricane Maria I see. It's hard to believe that we are in the peak week of the season with such a lack of activity.

With drier air filtering in NOLA tonight I think it is a super night for a beer or 10 and watching LSU man-handle Ms St....GEAUX TIGERS and DRY AIR!! Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
yooo i wish to report strong gusty winds in excess of 40 mph a lot of rain i am in the island of grenada
In Antigua here. Always great to find another islander :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No?


why the question mark after no? Typo or you don't know either?
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
500. DJMedik91
10:12 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting surferjoe5899:


Dont you know that weather is suppose to constantly be the same every year. If it moves up or down a little the only explanation possible could be man, the little dots on the earth. It couldn't possibly be that there is a big fireball up in the sky.


Joe, my post was highly sarcastic and not meant to take literally. Lol
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
499. DFWjc
10:11 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
No offense but I've given up on Texas.It's like you keep hoping and their still not recieving.IMO they'll get it when they get it.They better hope they have a La nina year like 2007.


Okay, here's why I'm not.

It's September.. for the last 15 years I've lived in NE Texas and it always rains after mid October. The rain will come when the temperature drops. IMO
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
498. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:11 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting aprinz1979:


Levi left???????


No?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32803
497. WeatherNerdPR
10:08 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Bermuda:
Max Wind Speed 39 mph
Max Gust Speed 50 mph
The highest winds they got from Maria.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
496. aprinz1979
10:06 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting JamesSA:


What a way to kill a blog! It has been almost as effective as killing a couple of bloggers and hanging their mutilated bodies from a bridge.

It is a shame, this was such a great place to come for information on the weather.


Levi left???????
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
495. DFWjc
10:05 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Ophelia? Where would it come from?


With all the cool air coming down from Canada, and Maria leaving there's still going to be some nice warm waters to churn up a Low building in the Carribbean, i think the pressures will be just right to build a nice tropical system and maybe go over Cuba and thru South Florida or Bahamas.. IMHO
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
494. caribbeantracker01
10:04 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
yooo i wish to report strong gusty winds in excess of 40 mph a lot of rain i am in the island of grenada
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
493. wunderweatherman123
10:03 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
canadian euro gfs nogaps all show development off africa
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
492. WeatherNerdPR
10:02 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Models are unanimous agreement that we will see Ophelia on Sunday...And some of our models are showing the Caribbean development in about weeks times.

Quoting DFWjc:


I'm still going with my prediction for a tropical system in the western Caribbean in the next 10-13 days..

Ophelia? Where would it come from?
EDIT: Never mind XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
491. washingtonian115
10:02 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting DFWjc:
The drought in Texas that has fueled wildfires, devastated agriculture and caused water shortages actually worsened in the past week while several other states also saw spreading drought, according to a weekly report issued Thursday. The forecast for three months out isn't any better: Texas was told to expect abnormally warm and dry conditions from October to December thanks to another La Nina weather cycle.

"Texas conditions continue to deteriorate what little they can from abysmal," the U.S. Drought Monitor stated. That was due to drought expanding into "the southeast, central, south-central, Big Bend region, and extreme south around Brownsville."

The lack of rain from Tropical Storm Nate last week "and better odds of a second consecutive La Nina winter only add fuel to this well-fed and entrenched drought," the report added.

La Nina conditions in the U.S. tend to mean warmer, drier weather in the south and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that over the next three months above normal temperatures are expected in Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas — as well as parts of areas along the western Great Lakes.

Much of Texas and Oklahoma would need 9 to 23 inches of rain over the next month to emerge from drought.



While some rain fell Thursday morning in parts of hard-hit north Texas, nearly 88 percent of the state is in what is classified as exceptional drought — up from 81 percent the week before.

Nearly 97 percent of Texas is in either exceptional or extreme drought.
Story: Drought may make it harder for Texas smokers to light up

From June through August, Texas suffered the hottest three months ever recorded in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. And the 12 months ending on Aug. 31 were the driest 12 months in Texas history, with most of the state receiving just 21 percent of its annual average rainfall.

Record heat has extended to other states: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma joined Texas in posting their warmest August on record.

In Texas alone, agricultural losses have topped $5 billion.
Story: Forecast for wildfire-weary Texas: Grim

Several other states are also seeing worsening drought:

Oklahoma: the entire state is in either severe, extreme or exceptional drought.
Georgia: Some 80 percent of the state is in extreme or exceptional drought.
Florida: Conditions improved in South Florida "but longer-term deficits and low lake levels (Lake Okeechobee in particular) and surrounding ecosystem stress is still of concern heading into the dry season."
South Carolina: Drought conditions spread into the state from north Florida.
North Carolina: the central part of the state saw new drought conditions after being missed by rains from Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee.
Midwest: an expansion of severe drought "leads to a band connecting Indiana with Illinois and Iowa to the west across the heart of the Corn Belt."

Over the next few days, some 1-2 inches of rain is forecast in drought areas. But the rain is expected to largely miss Texas, instead favoring Oklahoma, Kansas and areas more to the north.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
No offense but I've given up on Texas.It's like you keep hoping and their still not recieving.IMO they'll get it when they get it.They better hope they have a La nina year like 2007.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17798
490. aquak9
10:01 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



We need a gerbil expert.

It's a ferret.

No wait...actually it's TWO ferrets.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26629
489. DFWjc
10:01 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The rest of the basin seems quiet, when and where should we watch for development?


I'm still going with my prediction for a tropical system in the western Caribbean in the next 10-13 days..
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
488. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The rest of the basin seems quiet, when and where should we watch for development?


Models are unanimous agreement that we will see Ophelia on Sunday in the Eastern Atlantic. Also, some of our models are showing the Caribbean development in about weeks times.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32803
487. DFWjc
10:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting StAugustineFL:
482, not much but a little relief possibly on the way for TX.



NE Texas always get the Sept/Oct rain first, when i lived over there, we'd get anywhere from 3-6" for 10-12 days then dry then solid rain for a week...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
486. WeatherNerdPR
9:58 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, yeah...She is a hurricane now...And expected to strengthen more. I could see the storm going up by about 5-10 knots (10-15 mph) before she enters cooler waters and significantly higher wind shear.

JMO.

The rest of the basin seems quiet, when and where should we watch for development?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
485. StAugustineFL
9:58 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
482, not much but a little relief possibly on the way for TX.

Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 837
484. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:55 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
Maria's a hurricane? FINALLY.


lol, yeah...She is a hurricane now...And expected to strengthen more. I could see the storm going up by about 5-10 knots (10-15 mph) before she enters cooler waters and significantly higher wind shear.

JMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32803
483. WeatherNerdPR
9:53 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Good Afternoon.
Maria's a hurricane? FINALLY.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
482. DFWjc
9:52 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
The drought in Texas that has fueled wildfires, devastated agriculture and caused water shortages actually worsened in the past week while several other states also saw spreading drought, according to a weekly report issued Thursday. The forecast for three months out isn't any better: Texas was told to expect abnormally warm and dry conditions from October to December thanks to another La Nina weather cycle.

"Texas conditions continue to deteriorate what little they can from abysmal," the U.S. Drought Monitor stated. That was due to drought expanding into "the southeast, central, south-central, Big Bend region, and extreme south around Brownsville."

The lack of rain from Tropical Storm Nate last week "and better odds of a second consecutive La Nina winter only add fuel to this well-fed and entrenched drought," the report added.

La Nina conditions in the U.S. tend to mean warmer, drier weather in the south and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that over the next three months above normal temperatures are expected in Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas — as well as parts of areas along the western Great Lakes.

Much of Texas and Oklahoma would need 9 to 23 inches of rain over the next month to emerge from drought.



While some rain fell Thursday morning in parts of hard-hit north Texas, nearly 88 percent of the state is in what is classified as exceptional drought — up from 81 percent the week before.

Nearly 97 percent of Texas is in either exceptional or extreme drought.
Story: Drought may make it harder for Texas smokers to light up

From June through August, Texas suffered the hottest three months ever recorded in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. And the 12 months ending on Aug. 31 were the driest 12 months in Texas history, with most of the state receiving just 21 percent of its annual average rainfall.

Record heat has extended to other states: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma joined Texas in posting their warmest August on record.

In Texas alone, agricultural losses have topped $5 billion.
Story: Forecast for wildfire-weary Texas: Grim

Several other states are also seeing worsening drought:

Oklahoma: the entire state is in either severe, extreme or exceptional drought.
Georgia: Some 80 percent of the state is in extreme or exceptional drought.
Florida: Conditions improved in South Florida "but longer-term deficits and low lake levels (Lake Okeechobee in particular) and surrounding ecosystem stress is still of concern heading into the dry season."
South Carolina: Drought conditions spread into the state from north Florida.
North Carolina: the central part of the state saw new drought conditions after being missed by rains from Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee.
Midwest: an expansion of severe drought "leads to a band connecting Indiana with Illinois and Iowa to the west across the heart of the Corn Belt."

Over the next few days, some 1-2 inches of rain is forecast in drought areas. But the rain is expected to largely miss Texas, instead favoring Oklahoma, Kansas and areas more to the north.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
481. DFWjc
9:49 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting russm1:


I don't care where he was born. His father was not a US citizen therefore B.O. is not a NATURAL born citizen.


Who cares, I thought this is a weather site and not the local Vital Statistics office...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
476. Landfall2004
9:42 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting yonzabam:


Me neither. I'm fascinated by the subject, but, at my age, I won't live to see the most extreme effects.

It's today's young children who will live in a world devastated by climate change. And their grandchildren will see coastal cities around the world erased by rising sea levels.



I have a solution for that--many areas are in a drought. Use RO to desalinize the ocean water and pipe it inland! Heck, the Sahara could use a whole bunch--uh oh, but then, where would we get the Saharan dust that tempers some of our tropical systems???*sigh* Not as easy as it sounds.
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 360
470. Birthmark
9:35 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting ColdInFL:
These darn events are always throwing a wrench in the works:

Link

Google "difference between weather and climate."
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
469. HimacaneBrees
9:34 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting StAugustineFL:


And it should stay quiet in the near term unless there's a surprise or two.

Did you see Auburn's War Eagle crash into the stadium glass during the pre-game flight?


Yes I did.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1005
468. CosmicEvents
9:32 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting atl134:
I don't even have to read the comments to imagine there's global warming argument... so how about something we can all agree on... that is a heck of a mustache John Zavalney has.
Is that a moustache?
I thought it was a gerbil.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5684
467. ColdInFL
9:32 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
These darn events are always throwing a wrench in the works:

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71

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