New floods in Pakistan kill 226; Maria heads towards brush with Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on September 14, 2011

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A year after enduring the most devastating flooding in its history, Pakistan is again experiencing historic floods. An unusually heavy and late-lasting monsoon has brought torrential rains to Pakistan's southeast Sindh Province, which borders India to the east and the Arabian Sea to the south, and includes Pakistan's largest city, Karachi. The heavy rains began in the 2nd week of August, and have continued into the 2nd week of September, accumulating to 2 1/2 times more than average. According to Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Pakistan's Federal Advisor on Climate Affairs, this is the highest 4-week monsoon rainfall total ever recorded in Sindh province, amounting to more than 37 million acre feet of water, "which is unimaginable." The "unimaginable" rains occurred after a 12-month period where the province received no rain and was under severe drought conditions. At least 226 people have been killed in the new flooding, 1.2 million houses have been damaged or destroyed, and 280,000 people made homeless. There were already 1 million people needing food aid and 800,000 families without permanent shelter due to last year's floods, making this year's renewed flooding particularly disruptive. According to the India Meteorological Department, by September 1, the monsoon usually begins to retreat from northwest India and southeastern Pakistan. That hasn't happened this year, and the monsoon rains are forecast to continue at least for the remainder of this week--well into the 3rd week of September. This very unusual monsoon season also started a week earlier than normal.


Figure 1. Rainfall during the 2011 monsoon season has accumulated to 8 to 12 inches above average over portions of Pakistan's Sindh Province. Image credit: Pakistan Meteorological Department. Before and after satellite images of the flood are available at NASA Earth Observatory.

Is there a climate change connection?
Last year, heavy monsoon rains were enhanced by a very unusual jet stream configuration that brought cool air and rain-bearing low pressure systems to northern Pakistan. The great floods of 2011--rightfully called Pakistan's Katrina--submerged one fifth of the country, killing 1985 people, leaving 11 million homeless, and doing a record $9.5 billion in damage. This year, the monsoon weather patterns were much different, but also highly unusual, resulting in yet another great flood in Pakistan. In an interview with dawn.com, Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Pakistan's Federal Advisor on Climate Affairs, stated: "...climate change has become a reality for Pakistan. Clearly, Pakistan is heading for an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events which included frequent floods and droughts, and the need of the hour is to plan for the future changes." These events are in line with international climate change projections, he said.


Figure 2. Evacuations in Pakistan's Sindh Province during the summer 2011 floods. Image credit: Pakistan Meteorological Department.

A skeptic of Dr. Qamar's arguments might point to the fact that monsoon rainfall in neighboring India was not all that unusual in either 2010 or 2011, and that major monsoon flooding disasters in back-to-back years in Pakistan were probably just bad luck. However, the monsoon in India and Pakistan has undeniably changed in recent decades. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In addition, heavy downpours preferentially occur during thunderstorms, and a warmer climate produces a longer period of time during the year when thunderstorms can occur, giving more opportunities for heavy rainfall events. During August 2011, ocean temperatures in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Pakistan, in the region between 15°N - 25°N, 60°E - 70°E, were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, according to an analysis I did of the HADSST2 dataset. This was the 5th highest such value in over 100 years of record keeping. During the July 2010 monsoon, this region of ocean was 1.1°C (2.0°F) above average, the warmest July ocean temperatures on record. The extra heat in the ocean the past two summers have undoubtedly contributed to the high rainfall totals in Pakistan by allowing more water vapor to evaporate into the air. Thus, we should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades as the climate continues to warm and the oceans off the coasts of India and Pakistan heat up. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. Another concern is that climate change might lead to more failures of the monsoon--years when the rains are far below normal, leading to widespread drought and crop failures. This is a more dangerous scenario, since historically, droughts have been much more deadly than floods in Asia. Failure of the monsoon rains typically occur during El Niño years, so if climate change increases the frequency of El Niño, we might see an increase in the failure of the monsoon rains. So far, climate models are unclear on how climate change might affect El Niño, so we don't know how great a concern future failures of the monsoon might be.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Tropical Storm Maria headed towards a brush with Bermuda
Tropical Storm Maria is finally pulling away from Puerto Rico, and is headed north-northwest towards a brush with Bermuda, which will occur Thursday morning. Wind shear has fallen about 5 knots since yesterday, and is now a moderate 10 - 15 knots. This reduction in shear has allowed Maria a strengthen some, and satellite loops show the storm has more heavy thunderstorms that are better organized. The storm's surface circulation is still exposed on the storm's west side, though, and Maria does not have anything close to a complete eyewall built. Maria passed near NOAA buoy 41046 this morning, which reported a 1-hour period of sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 45 mph. An outer spiral band of Maria is just beginning to appear on Bermuda radar.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Forecast for Maria
A trough of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast a predicted to turn Maria to the north-northeast by early Thursday, and accelerate the storm past Bermuda. The trough will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots beginning late tonight, which gives Maria just a short window of opportunity to intensify today. NHC gave Maria a 32% chance of reaching hurricane strength by Thursday in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia today. On Thursday morning, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 4 am local time on Thursday. Bermuda may experience a few hours where the wind rises above tropical storm force, 39 mph, near 8 am local time Thursday. Occasional rain squalls are expected to bring 1 - 3 inches of rain to the islands. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Most of the storm's high winds will be on the right side, and Maria will be weakening rapidly then, so I'm not expecting the storm will do much wind damage. Heavy rains could bring minor to moderate flooding to the eastern portion of the island.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. The models are backing off this morning on the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance late this week off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 6 -7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this idea.

The Climate Reality Project
Those of you who like Al Gore's efforts to promote climate change awareness and solutions may be interested in checking out his latest effort tonight at 7 pm local time, in all 24 of the world's time zones, via climaterealityproject.org. It's a live streaming multimedia presentation created by Al Gore and delivered once per hour by 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe.

Jeff Masters

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186. N3EG
I find it humorous when bloggers claim that the peak of this weak solar cycle is going to radically change our climate...just like the most intense solar cycle in 1957 or the Carrington solar flare in 1859 did. Yeah, right...
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185. jpsb
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Well put! I don't think anyone could have said it better. 1000
Thanks, what scares me most is the thought of all those d*mn yankees moving down here to Texas during the next ice age. Yuck!
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184. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
This is from Local NWS: DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STACKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY DAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME CHANGES LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH TX WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL PASS THROUGH HERE DRY. MAIN CONSEQUENCES WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND COME COOLER AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.




Well look at that (sarcasm) you might get away with no sweating on Thursday!
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Sure hope you get that and more....doesnt hurt to hope. I remember someone on the blog...dont remember who, at this time...but they made the statement that dry air begets more dry air...so I'm thinking ~~~ will some moisture possibly bring more moisture...just saying...
This is from Local NWS: DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STACKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY DAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME CHANGES LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH TX WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL PASS THROUGH HERE DRY. MAIN CONSEQUENCES WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND COME COOLER AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.

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Re: the Al Gore thing.

It has ALWAYS been a Strategic Idea to kill the Messenger, when the Message is hard to understand or when we just plain like the Status Quo.

Damm thing is, The Message lives on!
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Quoting JNCali:
How about those Packers!


Yeah, I know it's just tirst game of the season but WOW this could be a fun year (Again)
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Quoting LBAR:
Al Gore *snicker*
Al will be more than happy to speak to your group for anywhere from $100K to $175K.. I bet he had to buy a bigger lock box for all that green!
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12Z GFS (Operational) following the steps of its 06Z run with little to no development.

In contrast NGP sure is getting less reluctant at dropping the system.
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Quoting twincomanche:
What's normal? Oh yeah, I remember now, it's a discussion of hurricanes, fires , tornadoes and such.LOL.


Yea, that' the ticket
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176. LBAR
Al Gore *snicker*
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175. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting lhwhelk:

Actually, tests showed they were a kind of sponge, the "potato sponge," that was loosened from the ocean floor. They died in the process, and it was decay that caused the stink. Wish I had a link for you, but this was about two days ago.


Really.. This article is a few hours old...Auburn Univ is wrong..can't tell oil from a sponge?.. BP is wrongfully admitting that Lee washed up some of their oil. Do you think that the workers deployed by BP are picking up sponges instead of oil right now? I saw the article about the sponges a few days ago but Lee washed up more than sponges..
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Quoting jpsb:
Well the discussion is not that the climate is changing, everyone knows that climate changes over time. It not even in doubt (much) that modern man is having an effect on the climate. The discussion really is how much is mankind contributing to the recent warming? Or to put it another way, would the recent warming have occurred sans mankind? I have not studied the issues in 5 or 6 years, but back when I did I decided that the science was not there. I'll take another look at it but I seriously doubt the science is much better now. It is also very hard to ignore the profit motive that some like Al Gore have. Very hard.

There are one or two canaries in cage indicators of run away global warming. One would be global sea levels, another would be mountain glacial ice. As far as I can tell sea levels are not rising at an alarming rate and mountain ice is doing just fine. In fact I recall reading last month that some mountain passes in the high Rockies were still snowed in. And some ski resorts were still opened.

Another thing to check would be sea temperatures, since the sea is a much better at holding heat then is air.

As I have mentioned before, due to the current configuration of the continents the Earth is in a cool, ice age period and has been for the past few million years or so. We should all be happy there is no land mass at the north pole, cause if there was your significant other would be a Neanderthal. ;)

One last thought, would a little warming be a bad thing? More moisture, longer growing season better crops with increased CO2, all these things sound pretty good to me. The threat is not a little warming the threat is run away warming and the case for runaway global warming has not been proved IMHO.


Well put! I don't think anyone could have said it better. +1000
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Quoting twincomanche:
I think that the subject got started because the good Dr. started it with his comment. he certainly can't criticize us for being off topic discussing something he posted. How this drifted off into the never ending drilling discussion.....who knows. I have been sort of reading past that with glazed look (LOL) since I have heard it all several times.


We all have the freedom to discuss with respect our points of view....

But Dr. Masters just wrote:

"Those of you who like Al Gore's efforts ....."

If we don't like Al Gore's ideas, we can ignore it.... or present our ideas, respecting that some here, have their own on either side of the subject....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9884
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


All seasons have lulls, and we are in one.

That's true.
But this is not what was forecast, at all.....
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Quoting Minnemike:
hi Wunderblog multiple personalities. first, thanks for the blog Doctor M!! always appreciated in whatever scope of subject matter you wish to address :)

the climate storm is upon us... change is happening, face the facts. i care not to contribute to the back and forth of AGW, seems obvious enough to those who listen with their minds open. what i will say is, that facts indicate it's become hotter in recent decades globally, but just wait until we hit the next solar maximum!! will the proverbial frog jump out of the water then?.... no, i doubt it will. adaptation to changing climate is inevitable. it will be fraught with disaster and opportunity. a new learning curve for the species is around the corner.

And that's as pleasant a way to put it as possible, I think.

My own assessment is quite a bit more grim.
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Will this 2011 Atlantic season reach the Greek names? If you want to comment about this question, I have a blog about it.

Link
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168. jpsb
Quoting Birthmark:
Well the discussion is not that the climate is changing, everyone knows that climate changes over time. It not even in doubt (much) that modern man is having an effect on the climate. The discussion really is how much is mankind contributing to the recent warming? Or to put it another way, would the recent warming have occurred sans mankind? I have not studied the issues in 5 or 6 years, but back when I did I decided that the science was not there. I'll take another look at it but I seriously doubt the science is much better now. It is also very hard to ignore the profit motive that some like Al Gore have. Very hard.

There are one or two canaries in cage indicators of run away global warming. One would be global sea levels, another would be mountain glacial ice. As far as I can tell sea levels are not rising at an alarming rate and mountain ice is doing just fine. In fact I recall reading last month that some mountain passes in the high Rockies were still snowed in. And some ski resorts were still opened.

Another thing to check would be sea temperatures, since the sea is a much better at holding heat then is air.

As I have mentioned before, due to the current configuration of the continents the Earth is in a cool, ice age period and has been for the past few million years or so. We should all be happy there is no land mass at the north pole, cause if there was your significant other would be a Neanderthal. ;)

One last thought, would a little warming be a bad thing? More moisture, longer growing season better crops with increased CO2, all these things sound pretty good to me. The threat is not a little warming the threat is run away warming and the case for runaway global warming has not been proved IMHO.
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Quoting Birthmark:


But we do know. Abrupt climate change is almost always accompanied by mass extinction.




I beg to differ.


I'm sorry that is nonsense. That is somewhat akin to saying that because we don't know exactly the score of every kid in the US on next year's SATs that we can't predict --within a range-- the average nationwide score. Predicting climate is far, far easier than predicting weather.


Actually the last Glacial Maximum peaked roughly 20,000 years ago. Since then, the ice has been receding. If the ice has been receding, then it has been getting warmer. A trend we are still seeing today. A trend that has 20,000 years to back it up.

Now there have been wobbles in that trend.

There was a period of rapid cooling during the dark ages around the time of the Black Plague.

Now we are seeing a period or rapid warming.

Who is to say that this current warming trend will continue at the current pace or, like the rapid cooling, correct itself regardless of what man does.

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Quoting twincomanche:


Who would have thunk it a couple of weeks ago.


All seasons have lulls, and we are in one.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9884
164. yoboi
whats with all this climate debate just read the bible it tells you how the earth will end and there is nothing anyone can do about it............
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, September 14th, with Video


Levi, what a serious analysis you made of all those hurricanes developing in the W Carib. and the variables causing it...
Excellent job... Appreciate your effort and the time you dedicate....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9884
Quoting twincomanche:
What's normal? Oh yeah, I remember now, it's a discussion of hurricanes, fires , tornadoes and such.LOL.
How about those Packers!
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
This is why we should really listen to what Al Gore has to say.... You'll see at the bottom.

It was 1987! At a lecture the other day they were
playing an old news video of Lt.Col. Oliver North testifying at the Iran-Contra hearings during the Reagan Administration. There was Ollie in front of God and country getting the third degree, but what he said was stunning!
He was being drilled by a senator, 'Did you not recently spend close to $60,000 for a home security
system? Ollie replied, 'Yes, I did, Sir.'
The senator continued, trying to get a laugh out of the audience, 'Isn't that just a little excessive?'
'No, sir,' continued Ollie.
'No? And why not?' the senator asked.
'Because the lives of my family and I were threatened, sir.'
'Threatened? By whom?' the senator
questioned..
'By a
terrorist, sir' Ollie answered.
'Terrorist? What terrorist could
possibly scare you that much?'
'His name is Osama bin Laden, sir' Ollie
replied.

At this point the senator tried to repeat the name,
but couldn't pronounce it, which most people back then probably couldn't. A couple of people laughed at the attempt. Then the senator continued.. Why are you so afraid of this man?' the senator asked.

'Because, sir, he is the most evil person alive that I know of', Ollie answered.
'And what do you recommend we do about him?' asked the senator.

'Well, sir,
if it was up to me, I would recommend that an
assassin team be formed to eliminate him and his men from the face of the earth.' The senator
disagreed with this approach, and that was all that
was shown of the clip.

By
the way, that senator was Al Gore.















This whole story has been debunked by Snopes: http://www.snopes.com/rumors/north.asp

Member Since: October 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
Quoting twincomanche:
I think that the subject got started because the good Dr. started it with his comment. he certainly can't criticize us for being off topic discussing something he posted. How this drifted off into the never ending drilling discussion.....who knows. I have been sort of reading past that with glazed look (LOL) since I have heard it all several times.


I think I've heard it one too many times. Maybe the blog will get back to "normal" (what ever that is) when something starts to brew anew in the tropics. At least that's my prayer
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hi Wunderblog multiple personalities. first, thanks for the blog Doctor M!! always appreciated in whatever scope of subject matter you wish to address :)

the climate storm is upon us... change is happening, face the facts. i care not to contribute to the back and forth of AGW, seems obvious enough to those who listen with their minds open. what i will say is, that facts indicate it's become hotter in recent decades globally, but just wait until we hit the next solar maximum!! will the proverbial frog jump out of the water then?.... no, i doubt it will. adaptation to changing climate is inevitable. it will be fraught with disaster and opportunity. a new learning curve for the species is around the corner.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
We are expecting a trace to a tenth of an inch in any rain in South Central Texas but I will take it because that is alot more than i have received last 4 months combined.


Sure hope you get that and more....doesnt hurt to hope. I remember someone on the blog...dont remember who, at this time...but they made the statement that dry air begets more dry air...so I'm thinking ~~~ will some moisture possibly bring more moisture...just saying...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
Reading this blog today reminds me of the definition I heard in the movie, "Contagion"... a blog is graffiti with punctuation.

Well, sometimes there's punctuation. 8^)
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Quoting MrMixon:
By what authority do people come here and tell Dr. Masters what to post on his blog?

There's something like a trillion (no exaggeration) web pages on the internet. I bet dollars-to-dumplings there's a weather blog somewhere that hates on Al Gore as much as some of you would like to do. Dr. Masters respects Al Gore and I suspect your rantings here aren't going to stop him from occasionally posting about him (indeed, you might just encourage further pro-Gore postings...)


It's Dr Masters blog. Plain and simple we are his guests. With that I'm out, will come back to check on the weather aspects of the blog later.
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Man it's days like this I miss a nice big fat Cat 5 storm ....
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Quoting basti11:
this front will cool things off a little but its the next front a week from friday that packs a big punch and will cool us down in the upper 40s in the city...highs in the upper 60s...that will END HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE GOM...


What cold front a week from Friday? I don't see anything in the long range forecast. I am supposed to be on vacation in St. George Island, FL the last week of September. It's going to be cold? Back to lurking.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Don't you know? The bloggers on here get to talk about whatever they want, despite the rules.

Oh well...At least some of us like to follow the expectations of this blog.


Well, obviously not ALL of the bloggers got to talk about whatever they wanted.. LOL
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150. CJ5
Quoting jpsb:
There are lots of deep water wells and only 1 failure in the past 20 or 30 years so blaming the equipment is a bit of a stretch. Now the blow out preventer did fail. And that is not suppose to fail (still waiting to read why that did fail). But had BP followed best practices, instead of listening to bean counters they would be selling oil from that well right now.


Blaming the equipment is part of the reason we had the explosion and the spill. It failed to act to seal the well. It wasn't by bad design it was because of the circumstances. I imagine a better design will begin being used.

The actual workers who died was part of the problem. They failed to vent the gas fumes overboard and instead vented them on board. They also failed to notice problems early enough.

BP was part of the problem. They failed to fully investigate why there was a previous burp in the well a week earlier. They also had some unclear procedures that result in bad decisions.

As for Hailburton and the cement...everyone understands that the cement failed to plug the well. It is assumed it became tainted with nitrous gas during placement and did not solidify properly. The official report could not determine what happened exactly.

So, the fact that the media and the left continue to blame "big oil" and use the Deep Water Horizon as the poster child for all things oil/gas evil is wrong. Accidents happen, usually big accidents happen because many small things happen together. We are going to have accidents it is just a fact of life and there is not always some evil corporation causing them on purpose.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:
When did this blog change to a political blog? Did I miss something? I thought this was a tropical weather blog? What's up Dr. Masters?


Don't you know? The bloggers on here get to talk about whatever they want, despite the rules.

Oh well...At least some of us like to follow the expectations of this blog.
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Quoting MrMixon:
By what authority do people come here and tell Dr. Masters what to post on his blog?

There's something like a trillion (no exaggeration) web pages on the internet. I bet dollars-to-dumplings there's a weather blog somewhere that hates on Al Gore as much as some of you would like to do. Dr. Masters respects Al Gore and I suspect your rantings here aren't going to stop him from occasionally posting about him (indeed, you might just encourage further pro-Gore postings...)
Agree, nasty political commentary as several above have no place here. Just start your own propaganda blog if you feel compelled (or join the cacaphony on Foxnation.com).
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is great, almost 100 here again and clear, we look to suffer awhile longer in South Central Texas. Looks like amounts around Dallas of around a tenth of an inch, probably seemed like a flood. That is awesome if your roads got wet for Texas that is a flood, LOL.


It rained hard for a solid 10 minutes, but was gone as fast as it came. I walked outside and stood in the yard with my hands lifted towards the sky. I thought, "What is this strange substance falling from above"? Needless to say, it has been a long while since I've seen a good downpour. What a good way to start your day, even if it was short-lived.
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Quoting Skyepony:
ORANGE BEACH, Ala. (AP) — Tests show the wave of tar balls that hit Alabama's beaches after Tropical Storm Lee was from last year's BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, a coastal mayor said Tuesday.


Actually, tests showed they were a kind of sponge, the "potato sponge," that was loosened from the ocean floor. They died in the process, and it was decay that caused the stink. Wish I had a link for you, but this was about two days ago.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, September 14th, with Video

Levi: Loved the analysis - appreciate all your hard work!!!
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Quoting MtnWX10:
Aviation GFS model ensemble is predicting vigorous tropical cyclonic development in the western Carribean with a northerly track. I say GOM development/support of TC it is not over especially for coastal MS, AL, and FL.


TC climatology maps clearly show the high season for NW carribean/Gomex storms is from late Sept. thru Oct.... just when the Cape Verde season winds down.
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Hey all.. The thing I have issues with regarding AGW is that every article I've read is chock full of qualifiers. There are never any emphatic conclusions stated. "If we don't reduce CO2 emissions the weather might probably continue to change possibly in the near future maybe." yarrrrgh! -IMO
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142. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Thank you, I did not realize that was suppose to cause the disturbance. I thought it had to do with the cooling off of the States, and where the high pressure would be allowing something to pull up from that are. Now it makes sense why the ECMWF and a few others have dropped it from their runs.


Post 115 shows it nicely. Part of the wave that bore Maria remains & should continue west into the Caribbean. If it gets enough energy under the right conditions, remains to be seen. The interaction with the tail of the front that cooled off the USA does have a part in the set up.
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We are expecting a trace to a tenth of an inch in any rain in South Central Texas but I will take it because that is alot more than i have received last 4 months combined.
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I see many here are arguing about drilling again. I got the solution to prevent accidents such as the one on the Dee Water horizon. Drill on land and close to the shore where divers can safely reach the bottom. That is the main reason why we could not stop the spill, because no one could get doun there to stop it and a spill this magnitude could not have been controlled with ROVs. If you like driving around in your motor vehicles as much as I do you need gasoline to power them. It is proven that solar is not a cost efficient source of energy as of yet. Hydrogen, well, who likes to drive with a potential hydrogen bomb underneath. Batteries, forget about it it creates more pollution with biproducts to build on battery for a prius than driving a hummer for several years. All this feel good little things people do to suppoedly save the environment have created a huge problem. Countries like China will never quit drilling and they have substandard methods of extraction when compared to us. Liberals ussually have good intentions but their good intentions when trying to force them down a country's throat always ends up in disaster. Dr Masters, all due respect, but Al Gore has 0 credibility in my book and I would not even write his name in a piece of paper and keep it in my pocket for fear of loosing my own credibility. Many scientist backs this up by the way.
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By what authority do people come here and tell Dr. Masters what to post on his blog?

There's something like a trillion (no exaggeration) web pages on the internet. I bet dollars-to-dumplings there's a weather blog somewhere that hates on Al Gore as much as some of you would like to do. Dr. Masters respects Al Gore and I suspect your rantings here aren't going to stop him from occasionally posting about him (indeed, you might just encourage further pro-Gore postings...)
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When did this blog change to a political blog? Did I miss something? I thought this was a tropical weather blog? What's up Dr. Masters?
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Quoting DFWjc:


The concrete is wet here in North Richland Hills...
That is great, almost 100 here again and clear, we look to suffer awhile longer in South Central Texas. Looks like amounts around Dallas of around a tenth of an inch, probably seemed like a flood. That is awesome if your roads got wet for Texas that is a flood, LOL.
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Quoting carcar1967:


The thing is are you 100% sure that rapid warming has not gone on in the past? The fact is we do not know.


But we do know. Abrupt climate change is almost always accompanied by mass extinction.

Quoting carcar1967:
Yes the Earth is warming has been for the last 10,000 plus years.



I beg to differ.

Quoting carcar1967:The simple fact is that earths weather patterns and climate change operate on a longer time scale than we have reliable data for. We no more know what the climate will be like a 100 years from now than we know what will develop in the tropics two weeks from now.

We simply do not have enough data.

I'm sorry that is nonsense. That is somewhat akin to saying that because we don't know exactly the score of every kid in the US on next year's SATs that we can't predict --within a range-- the average nationwide score. Predicting climate is far, far easier than predicting weather.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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