Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.
The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.
Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.
Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.
Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.
Jeff Masters
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KEY LARGO — A combination of atmospheric conditions have helped steer tropical storm activity away from
the Florida Keys so far this
year, but weather experts caution against being too confident until after October.
Rizzo warns Floridians not
to become complacent in
early autumn since cyclonic
storms tend to form suddenly in a “Genesis region” near
Venezuela. These storms tend
to travel north in October,
rather than northwesterly as
they do in summer.
“On TV you see storms that
form off Africa and watch their
progress for 10 or 12 days and
have plenty of time to prepare.
In October, you may have 36 to
48 hours [of warning with the
Southern Caribbean storms],”
he said. “They go northerly,
not westerly, and then the fall
cold fronts [that sweep from
the northwest] tend to push
them toward Florida.”
ESL by LSU GOES-13 Atlantic view
click image for loop
Only 0.14" near FM 646 and I-45
TN will welcome you. Good choice. That's part of real America.
ummmmmmm,I don't want to sound.geez Im not sure of the right word there.I live in Soo Cal,is that part of "real america"? Let me know where I need to be in the USA to be in "real america", as I don't want to be in the wrong area.I want to be "really" American.
As expected, P26L was absorbed by Maria.
P27L should be one of the key ingredients for a possible TC development in the W/NW Carib. by next week.
The cosmic phenomenon will happen when one of the brightest stars in the night sky explodes into a supernova.
And, according to a report yesterday, the most stunning light show in the planet’s history could happen as soon as this year.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-134 9383/Betelgeuse-second-sun-Earth-supernova-turns-n ight-day.html#ixzz1Xw1TmUrK
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