Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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Can someone explain why my account was temporarily banned, for allegedly circumventing a ban? I have no idea what that means, and I had not logged on in a few days and during my absence I got a 24 hour ban somehow.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX A LITTLE OVER
MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN SHEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MARIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE CYCLONE
PEAKING AT 55 KT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND HWRF
THROUGH 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THAT MARIA WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 3 AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY DAY 4.

AFTER STALLING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF MARIA
HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE
RECENT JUMPY MOTION...A LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
355/07 IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY 48
HOURS...MARIA WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY
COSMETIC CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 24
HOURS. THROUGH THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THAT ISLAND AT THIS TIME.

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Quoting basti11:



DOUG i gave my reasoning behind why i think our hurricane season is over after september 24...we have continued shots of cold air coming out of canada its going be worse in october...also october is our driest month of the year with very low humidity and ample DRY AIR..you have to figure also when is the last time you saw record breaking cold in early september..we will see..


Ok stormtop, you were only right during katrina, face it, the GOM won't freeze, no way cold air can get this far south in September.
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Quoting kipperedherring:
No need for the bad vibes man. Chill out, stay groovy and catch some reruns of Mod squad. That's how I keep my cool. Peace.
Oh... Mod Squad.... thanks for reminding me...

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Quoting tropicfreak:


Don't forget Opal!

I certainly haven't forgotten Opal; I am originally from Panama City and remember her well. For some reason, this year she has come to mind a lot and I have been wondering if this will be the year that we have a repeat of that type of storm in the Panhandle.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That is complete and utterly false.

*Cough* Wilma *Cough*
*Cough* Mitch *Cough*
*Cough* There are a lot more... *Cough*
I don't really think he was comparing to other late years, only that he thought that for THIS YEAR the pattern favored an early end to the season for the Gulf.

I might disagree with him strongly (I see no forecasts of anywhere near low 50's or 40's anywhere around NOLA for the next week or even month), but we'll just wait and see.

It certainly does seem as if the NW Gulf from Brownsville to Mobile is pretty much safe, barring any unforseen circumstances. Then again, they were saying that in 2002, right before Lili arrived.


Anthony
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TEXAS THREAT ENDS SOON

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially lasts until Nov. 30, the threat to Texas will soon fall off.

The following map, made with NOAA’s historical hurricane tracks tool, Link shows all of the storms that have made landfall at hurricane intensity in Texas after Sept. 24. As you can see there are just three storms that hit Texas, most recently Hurricane Jerry in 1989.

Hurricane strikes after Sept. 24. (NOAA)



So it’s possible for a hurricane strike after Sept. 24, but the odds are about 50-to-1 based upon a century and a half of hurricane records. Why is Texas at less of a risk compared to other areas of the Gulf coast?

By mid- to late September, the jet stream typically dips farther south across the United States, pushing cold fronts to the Texas coast. These fronts buffer the approach of tropical systems, pushing them east toward the north-central or northeastern Gulf Coast.

At the same time, the Bermuda High — a large region of high pressure centered over Bermuda that typically stretches all the way to Texas through the summer — starts to weaken and retreat to the east. This allows storms to turn northeast before tracking all the way into the western Gulf of Mexico.

So the realistic end of hurricane season is near at hand for the state of Texas.

Little interesting Factoid I came across from Link (page 2)

BTW The mercury has reached 102 degrees this afternoon at Bush Intercontinental Airport, reports the National Weather Service, smashing the old record of 98 degrees set in 1912.

Houston has never recorded a temperature above 100 degrees after Sept. 12. Until today.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 234
Guys put basti11 on ignore, he's clearly stormtop/stormkat/cloudburst, based on the inconsistent caps and lower case.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, given that its really slow up in here, I thought it would be good to make an announcement.

Starting on June 1st, 2012 I will be posting 5-10 minute video updates with my tropical weather updates on a daily basis. I will be working and experimenting with video editing, recording and sound recording over the next few months with my first video in May.


cool.

*Sigh...*

Will somebody tell this guy, EVEN if you do mean Tampa south, it is still part of Florida, and THEREFORE part of the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.

Not that hard to understand IMO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, I agree. #306 was posted while I was writing my post. The subject matter was Texas and not the entire CONUS but, yes, 1956 covered a much larger area. I would still like to know the depth, in terms of negative inches, for each of these years. I believe that could be a more telling story, or not.


I agree. My aunt, who lives in Enid OK, remembers the 1956 drought and the dust bowl back in the thirties.
She said what s going on now was a lot similar to back then.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
For comparison, the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the three worst droughts on record for Texas:



August 2011 (statewide average of -7.75)



September 1956 (statewide average of -7.80)



August 1918 (statewide average of -7.09)


So there have been worse droughts? thats impossible this one is being caused by global warming
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, given that its really slow up in here, I thought it would be good to make an announcement.

Starting on June 1st, 2012 I will be posting 5-10 minute video updates with my tropical weather updates on a daily basis. I will be working and experimenting with video editing, recording and sound recording over the next few months with my first video in May.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isn't basti short for Bastardi?
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Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985

Dissipated November 1, 1985

Highest winds 1-minute sustained:

85 mph (140 km/h)

Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)

Fatalities 24 direct, 50 indirect

Damage $2.8 billion (1985 USD)

(Includes indirect losses)

Areas affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle
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Quoting basti11:
IF IM WRONG i will eat all the crow and apologize to everyone in here and will personally never make a forecast again...i said SEPTEMBER 24 WILL MARK THE END OF THE HURRICANE SEASON FOR JUST THE GOM...FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CEDAR KEYS FLA...with a storm traveling ne TAMPA SOUTH IS STILL IN THE SOUP..


SPEAK A LITTLE LOUDER PLEASE!!

And will it hit FL as a Cat 5 Stormtop?
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Quoting carcar1967:


Look at post 306. Looks like the drought of 1956 covered more area. than either 1918 or 2011.


Yes, I agree. #306 was posted while I was writing my post. The subject matter was Texas and not the entire CONUS but, yes, 1956 covered a much larger area. I would still like to know the depth, in terms of negative inches, for each of these years. I believe that could be a more telling story, or not.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting MrNatural:


Gives new meaning to the "persistence" forecast.
I remember one year on Christmas it was in mid 90s and we had a pool party, LOL
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Quoting thisishsyterical:
what about alaska our countries bigest state and they havent had much precip this year either


Yeah we're fine up here lol.
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105 Degrees out there right now...... No Rain in sight

Link
Texas wildfires: More evidence of climate change

The above story does reference Climate Change and the Texas Wildfires. So be warned.

What I am taking out of this story is the following:

Six of the 10 largest wildfires in Texas history occurred in 2011. This year’s wildfire in Bastrop County set a somber state record for destruction: the highest number of homes lost in a single fire in Texas history.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 234
Quoting basti11:


LEVI you have to factor in we alread had record breaking cold weather in early september and more scheduled to come down the pipe...we are going to be with low humidity and to top it off dont forget the wind shear plus the dry air...i do understand we were hit in oct and nov in previous years,however we didnt get any record breaking temps in september...


2 weeks of cold doesn't mean we're going into an ice age until winter starts.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Looking at post #253, I notice that it has an "exceptional" range that 1955 and 1918 do not have. Since I do not know what the "exceptional" range is considered to be ( -5 or more inches? ), for 2011, I cannot know for sure how 2011 compares to 1955 or to 1918. However, 1918 was more severe, in total area, than was 1955 and 2011 is more severe, in total area, than was 1918 and possibly deeper, in its lack of moisture, than was 1918. Does anyone have this data to compare more accurately? ... Dr. Masters, if you do not mind, what do the archives show?


Look at post 306. Looks like the drought of 1956 covered more area. than either 1918 or 2011.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Why?


Atmo are you a moderator on this site? I need some assistance.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
I remenber back in late 80's or early 90's when due to public pressure NHC stopped using geograpical positions in the US for advisories unless the cyclone was almost over the town/city. Last week with Katia it was reported to be approx 400 miles west of Bermuda. LOL, I suppose it could have been 535 miles west north west of Bermuda if it was directly over Cape Hatteras. And someone said the greenback is losing its power? Maybe in the supermarket but not at NHC.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


This is an immature and ignorant statement IMO.

Ida hit the GOMEX coast, in an El Nino year, IN NOVEMBER, and almost as a hurricane to boot.
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Well now..That is a big blow up of convection over Maria's center.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting basti11:



OK I SAID WHAT I HAD TO FIRST OF ALL THIS IS NOT AND EL NINO YEAR...hurricanes cant go into shear and dry air...they need 80 degree sst to survive...im not trying to play a game here this is a proven fact i been tracking storms in the gom for over 20 years and yes we did get hit in november by liliy but that year we didnt have record breaking cold in early september....the cause of all this was LEE..we have a front coming through thursday but the real shot of cold air will be down here by saturday after next...we will have lots of low humidity and ample pools of DRY AIR...we have a force field around us and nothing will break through it or even attempt to enter the northern or ne gom...


You'd think it not being an El Nino year would increase the risk wouldn't it? Your acting like its mid-November already with the pattern, yet its mid-September and peak hurricane season.
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Quoting thisishsyterical:
what about alaska our countries bigest state and they havent had much precip this year either

I think the equation for Alaska will never fall into the same category as Texas and neighbouring states as it has ample reserves of fresh water in snow and rivers from snow melt and also it does not have the high temperatures to cope with. Added to this it has a relatively small population who are accustomed to extremes of conditions by the very fact that they live there.
Ive lived over half my life in a place where we don't get rain for 5 or 6 months of the year but the difference is its always been like that here.
PS I'm stuck in rainy Manchester at the moment!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2066
Quoting basti11:



OK I SAID WHAT I HAD TO FIRST OF ALL THIS IS NOT AND EL NINO YEAR...hurricanes cant go into shear and dry air...they need 80 degree sst to survive...im not trying to play a game here this is a proven fact i been tracking storms in the gom for over 20 years and yes we did get hit in november by liliy but that year we didnt have record breaking cold in early september....the cause of all this was LEE..we have a front coming through thursday but the real shot of cold air will be down here by saturday after next...we will have lots of low humidity and ample pools of DRY AIR...we have a force field around us and nothing will break through it or even attempt to enter the northern or ne gom...


You're hard to understand. You just said Florida was "still in the soup", and its part of the NE Gulf of Mexico. So..is it closed down or isn't it?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting 1900hurricane:
For comparison, the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the three worst droughts on record for Texas:



August 2011 (statewide average of -7.75)



September 1956 (statewide average of -7.80)



August 1918 (statewide average of -7.09)


Extreme South Texas always seems to be better off than the rest of the state during these droughts.
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Quoting Levi32:
It's also very hypocritical to slam someone down for a forecast just because you disagree with it. It doesn't matter if it annoys you to death. If it's a forecast with a given reasoning, then please respect it.


We weren't necessarily responding to his forecast, we were responding to his comment that said that the Gulf of Mexico was OFFICIALLY closed down for the rest of the season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So the rest of the WUbloggers know that he is posting INCORRECT information.
Um, okay, if anyone didn't know that already, do please raise your hand.

C'mon, hands up.
*tap, tap*

Didn't think so.
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Quoting basti11:



BEFORE YOU COMMENT YOU NEED TO READ AND UNDERSTAND MY POST I DONT THINK YOU DO..but lets take the 2 hurricanes you mentioned first MITCH never entered the gom went into belize...the other one wilma went into s fla ..if you read what i said s fla is still in the soup this does not include them just the GULF OF MEXICO FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CEDAR KEYS FLA...
I like you basti, you keep the blog entertained, check this one out, if I could whistle, that is one nasty track if you ask me.

1924 Cuba Hurricane formed Oct. 14 reached maximum sustained winds of 165 mph Cat 5. DOOM!

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'll play your game:



Hurricane Jerry - October 12 to October 16.


Don't forget Opal!

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Quoting Levi32:
The western gulf does shut down in October, but these are all the hurricanes passing through the gulf and SW Atlantic during October....it's not a dud month on average by any stretch of the imagination.



You know its a bad sign when you cant see the state of Florida, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
It's also very hypocritical to slam someone down for a forecast just because you disagree with it. It doesn't matter if the forecast or the person making it annoys you to death. If it's a forecast with a given reasoning, then please respect it.
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Quoting txjac:


It's just his opinion and he's entitled to that. I dont think that anyone on the blog is relying on posts here as to what the rest of the season will bring.

There are plenty of other posts that indicate more storms to come ...heck even a couple of posts stating that TX may get some rain ...



It is his opinion, and I countered it with my own opinion.
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Afternoon all... back in for a short while after a long, long day. The 94 degree weather today, with horrible humidity, made for a high level of discomfort....

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Quoting twincomanche:


Looking at post #253, I notice that it has an "exceptional" range that 1955 and 1918 do not have. Since I do not know what the "exceptional" range is considered to be ( -5 or more inches? ), for 2011, I cannot know for sure how 2011 compares to 1955 or to 1918. However, 1918 was more severe, in total area, than was 1955 and 2011 is more severe, in total area, than was 1918 and possibly deeper, in its lack of moisture, than was 1918. Does anyone have this data to compare more accurately? ... Dr. Masters, if you do not mind, what do the archives show?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
317. txjac
Quoting CybrTeddy:


This is an immature and ignorant statement IMO.

Ida hit the GOMEX coast, in an El Nino year, IN NOVEMBER, and almost as a hurricane to boot.


It's just his opinion and he's entitled to that. I dont think that anyone on the blog is relying on posts here as to what the rest of the season will bring.

There are plenty of other posts that indicate more storms to come ...heck even a couple of posts stating that TX may get some rain ...

Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2475
The western gulf does shut down in October, but these are all the hurricanes passing through the gulf and SW Atlantic during October....it's not a dud month on average by any stretch of the imagination. Florida is most threatened climatologically.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Why?


So the rest of the WUbloggers know that he is posting INCORRECT information.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting basti11:
after september 24th the only ones that have to worry about some serious hurricanes are anywhere in the caribbean sea,south florida,bahamas and bermuda...we have a major COLD FRONT coming down for next weekend that will bring much cooler ssts to the GOM also lower humidity and lots of DRY AIR...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LAKE AND UPPER 40S IN THE CITY...this will officially END THE HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE GOM FOR 2011...


This is an immature and ignorant statement IMO.

Ida hit the GOMEX coast, in an El Nino year, IN NOVEMBER, and almost as a hurricane to boot.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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