Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FortBendMan:
There's a new fire near Katy, TX that just started in the George Bush Park. So far no injuries - hopefully it will be contained quickly as this park is fairly close to some large suburban communities in West Houston.

BTW, no rain in Houston but at least we are seeing rain chances in the long range forecasts. 60 pct a week from now (that's the best we can do in Houston these days - just hope for the future). Hopefully today was our last truly hot day of the summer but we'll still have a lot of 90 degree days.


Tomorrow will be a little bit hotter but after that, just hot, not dang hot!
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 234
If you are looking for a line to pursue? Then last winter we were on about ice in northern Mexico, storms across the north east, for weeks on end,record snowfalls in the northern states, about the only place that was sort of half normal was the west coast and I'm sure somebody will scream cos I wrote that!
Given that it seems probable that and action replay of last year is going to take place with La Nina then all is not so much a matter of speculation as a question of time for a lot of things to repeat themselves.
People who argue are OK most of the time,without them everything would suffer from boring agreement.
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Quoting basti11:



LEVI all im saying for the next 2 weeks ill use louisiana im sure feeling good with these cool fronts coming in so early...we will just have to see how things pan out...the ones that should be concerned is south fla they are the ones going to be under the gun when something develops in the nw or western caribbean...it can take only 2 tracks west into mexico or ne into the keys and south fla..


The GOM is open for biz well into Oct. Georges and Wilma were Oct major canes in recent history.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everybody will be waking up to a stronger Maria in the morning...Still wouldn't rule out hurricane status if I were you, even if the National Hurricane Center has it peaking at 65 mph. Remember, they said they are on the low end of the intensity forecast, and most models take it up to hurricane status.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
Non-Live Video of new wildfire just west of Houston...

Link Live Video Edit - not live anymore some good video..

Link Chronicle Story

Houston Fire Department received the call at 3:17 p.m. Tuesday of a grass fire at George Bush Park in the 16700 block of Westheimer Parkway, a spokeswoman said. Engine 86 arrived first at 3:26 p.m. finding a grass fire near the roadway. It has progressed into the wooded area and is spreading.

HFD has 22 pieces of equipment and nearly 60 firefighters on the scene. Several grass/brush trucks and dozers have been deployed from nearby departments such as Cy-Fair, West I-10 and Community Volunteer Fire Departments.

No injuries have been reported and no evacuation has been ordered, the spokeswoman said. A Houston Police Department helicopter is to provide aerial help. The fire is traveling north-northeast and being pushed by the wind.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 234
Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay, that's odd.

They must think you are a second handle for someone else that got a ban.

Dare I say it? Yeah.
Seems as though we are suddenly handing out bans left and right around here, but to the wrong people. Let the goofy and distracting remain and ban the level-headed.


Thanks for sticking up for us atmo!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's a new fire near Katy, TX that just started in the George Bush Park. So far no injuries - hopefully it will be contained quickly as this park is fairly close to some large suburban communities in West Houston.

BTW, no rain in Houston but at least we are seeing rain chances in the long range forecasts. 60 pct a week from now (that's the best we can do in Houston these days - just hope for the future). Hopefully today was our last truly hot day of the summer but we'll still have a lot of 90 degree days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wildfires erupting again across the region this afternoon.
 
Walker County (Crabbs Prairie Fire): fire has rekindled this afternoon near FM 1693 and Hopewell Rd and is burning in heavy pine forest. Fire is showing a 25-30dbz on the local radar and the smoke plume is likely reaching 10-15 thousand feet into the air. Numerous fire departments are responding along with TFS crews.
 
Harris County (George Bush Fire): major grass fire has developed in George Bush Park near 16500 Westheimer Parkway. Numerous ground crews are on the fire including Cy-Fair and HFD. Ground crews are requesting air support from both helicopters and fixed wing aircraft. Fire is showing erratic behavior in brush and tall grasses.
 
Very poor fire weather conditions in place currently with gusty S to SW winds and very low RH. Seabreeze will be moving through the US 59 corridor in the next 1-2 hours shifting the winds to the SE at 15-20mph and gusty. Conditions are currently favorable for rapid fire weather growth.
 
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay, that's odd.

They must think you are a second handle for someone else that got a ban.

Dare I say it? Yeah.
Seems as though we are suddenly handing out bans left and right around here, but to the wrong people. Let the goofy and distracting remain and ban the level-headed.


Yup, I'm still here! hehehe.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
401. uptxcoast
10:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


It's ok lol. I pioneered the setup here on WU but I have and will continue to encourage others to try making videos the same way.

Now I assume you guys are capable of finding your own mic :P


I can find my own microphone I just need to have you give me the script!

I have really enjoyed your video's Levi. They are entertaining and informative. Thank You for the time and effort!
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 234
400. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's a blog...that's highly frowned upon, remember?


Oh boy...lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
399. atmoaggie
10:13 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting JupiterX:
Can someone explain why my account was temporarily banned, for allegedly circumventing a ban? I have no idea what that means, and I had not logged on in a few days and during my absence I got a 24 hour ban somehow.
Okay, that's odd.

They must think you are a second handle for someone else that got a ban.

Dare I say it? Yeah.
Seems as though we are suddenly handing out bans left and right around here, but to the wrong people. Let the goofy and distracting remain and ban the level-headed.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
398. MiamiHurricanes09
10:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Why am I not allowed to speculate now?
It's a blog...that's highly frowned upon, remember?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
397. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not hardly.

If you need something not covered by the WunderWiki (http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlog s), I'd send a message to WunderBlogAdmin.

Open your mail, compose, send to "WunderBlogAdmin".
Now, if you get no response for a full day, send it again. Sometimes they are busy and/or a message goes unnoticed, it seems.


You forgot the word "ignore" ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
395. Levi32
10:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ok, now, all I need to know is..

* What type of computer do you have?
* What type of headset?
* Where can you buy them?


It's ok lol. I pioneered the setup here on WU but I have and will continue to encourage others to try making videos the same way.

Now I assume you guys are capable of finding your own mic :P
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
394. atmoaggie
10:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting JupiterX:


Atmo are you a moderator on this site? I need some assistance.
Not hardly.

If you need something not covered by the WunderWiki (http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlog s), I'd send a message to WunderBlogAdmin.

Open your mail, compose, send to "WunderBlogAdmin".
Now, if you get no response for a full day, send it again. Sometimes they are busy and/or a message goes unnoticed, it seems.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
393. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


He's after all of my secrets now....lol.

"Sketch-it", is what it's called.


Ok, now, all I need to know is..

* What type of computer do you have?
* What type of headset?
* Where can you buy them?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
392. PrivateIdaho
10:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting JupiterX:
Can someone explain why my account was temporarily banned, for allegedly circumventing a ban? I have no idea what that means, and I had not logged on in a few days and during my absence I got a 24 hour ban somehow.


Maybe you were thinking funny thoughts when you weren't here.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
391. Levi32
10:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Thanks Levi! I've been meaning to ask you, but what program do you use to get the cursor to highlight specific areas on your screen?


He's after all of my secrets now....lol.

"Sketch-it", is what it's called.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
390. CybrTeddy
10:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting LITHCAT:
What do you all make of the GFS run at 324? Looks like Tampa might get a good cleaning.



Well there's your answer already, its at 324 hours.. meaning that its unlikely to occur at this time. It is however showing the many possibilities that are showing up that could occur, there's a reason why they go out that far.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
389. gulfbreeze
10:06 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting JamesSA:
Who is forecasting temps into the 40's in the northern GOM? I am only seeing a drop into the mid 90's on my local 8 day forecast.
Thank You there is no forcast.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 874
388. Levi32
10:05 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
I understand what Basta is saying, first cool wave came in after Lee, now another shot is coming and if we get temps in the 40s along the gulf coast, the season IS gonna shut down for the nothern GOM except for southern Florida, Yucatan, BOC, Carribean, Bahamas


The entire Gulf of Mexico is open for business until the end of September, and 2-3 cold nights aren't going to freeze it over with ice. Let's not start feeling all safe while we're in the peak 2 weeks of the season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
387. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:05 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting AllStar17:


Nice. I'd embarrass myself if I did that.


Yes, yes you would.

lol, no, I'm just playing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
386. LITHCAT
10:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
What do you all make of the GFS run at 324? Looks like Tampa might get a good cleaning.

Member Since: August 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
385. AllStar17
10:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, given that its really slow up in here, I thought it would be good to make an announcement.

Starting on June 1st, 2012 I will be posting 5-10 minute video updates with my tropical weather updates on a daily basis. I will be working and experimenting with video editing, recording and sound recording over the next few months with my first video in May.


Nice. I'd embarrass myself if I did that.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
384. CybrTeddy
10:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi! I've been meaning to ask you, but what program do you use to get the cursor to highlight specific areas on your screen?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
383. Levi32
10:01 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, given that its really slow up in here, I thought it would be good to make an announcement.

Starting on June 1st, 2012 I will be posting 5-10 minute video updates with my tropical weather updates on a daily basis. I will be working and experimenting with video editing, recording and sound recording over the next few months with my first video in May.


Sweet - looking forward to it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
382. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:01 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
381. bohonkweatherman
10:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Bastrop fire 70 percent contained, winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph by Wednesday, hot spots could easily spread.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
380. CybrTeddy
10:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
bastil, your making it sound like the ENTIRE Gulf Coast is going to see 30-40 degree lows in September. This is simply not true. Infact, just by looking at the next 7 day forecast it appears that lows across most of the Gulf Coast won't dip below 65 degrees. The cold your referring to will occur in the middle of the CONUS, where that will actually act to increase the odds of tropical cyclone development in the Western Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
379. AllStar17
10:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
The Latest:
*Click images to magnify (images can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking on them)



Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
378. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
CMC @ 120 hours:



ECMWF @ 120 hours:



The GFS and NGP don't really develop the system...They may very briefly, but these two don't show the solid storm that the ECMWF and CMC do. Given the wave off Africa, the conditions, and the ECMWF, I'm leaning more towards the CMC/ECMWF camp than GFS/NGP.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
377. CybrTeddy
9:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting thisishsyterical:
oh go please stop when something develops then lets speculate


Why am I not allowed to speculate now?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
376. JamesSA
9:57 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Who is forecasting temps into the 40's in the northern GOM? I am only seeing a drop into the mid 90's on my local 8 day forecast.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
375. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Majority of the models are saying that we'll probably have another CV system soon off Africa this week, similar path to Lisa in 2010 or Gordon in 2006.


Yep, we're on the lookout for Ophelia, which payed me a visit last time it was used.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31516
374. Some1Has2BtheRookie
9:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:


I agree. My aunt, who lives in Enid OK, remembers the 1956 drought and the dust bowl back in the thirties.
She said what s going on now was a lot similar to back then.


OK, I do not go back as far as your aunt but, I qualify for 1956. I remember long hot summers. I remember periods of drought and periods of torrential rains. I remember cold winters. I do not remember a years such as 2010 - 2011, in Houston, Texas. I have never had my lawn die from lack of rain. It has gotten close but, my lawn still made it. I have never before had to water my trees to keep them from dieing. This year, I have. I sincerely hope that we see now is an anomaly and not, "the new norm". That would be scary, to say the least. Will rain return to Texas? Yes, but, when and for how long? .... Look at my avatar. The lizard wants to know.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
371. CybrTeddy
9:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Majority of the models are saying that we'll probably have another CV system soon off Africa this week, similar path to Lisa in 2010 or Gordon in 2006.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
370. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
6:50 AM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (998 hPa) located at 23.3N 137.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 25.5N 133.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 26.7N 130.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 27.2N 129.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

Next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued by Japan Meteorological Agency at 9:50 AM JST..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44802
367. islander101010
9:53 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
maria might become a monster for the tuna fishermen
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4350
366. tropicfreak
9:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
I understand what Basta is saying, first cool wave came in after Lee, now another shot is coming and if we get temps in the 40s along the gulf coast, the season IS gonna shut down for the nothern GOM except for southern Florida, Yucatan, BOC, Carribean, Bahamas


We won't see 40s anytime this week on the gulf coast or next week. Heck local weather here in VA says lows bottoming out no lower than the 50s.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
365. RitaEvac
9:49 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
We wont know for sure until later, but the season may already be over for the western/NW and Northern gulf since Lee drove in that first cool front
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
364. MiamiHurricanes09
9:48 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
I see that the 12z ECMWF (amongst other global models) develops the tropical wave off of the African coast and draws it poleward as an upper-low cyclone causes a break in the ridge. On the look out for Ophelia...

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
363. RitaEvac
9:46 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
I understand what Basta is saying, first cool wave came in after Lee, now another shot is coming and if we get temps in the 40s along the gulf coast, the season IS gonna shut down for the nothern GOM except for southern Florida, Yucatan, BOC, Carribean, Bahamas
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
362. JupiterX
9:46 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Can someone explain why my account was temporarily banned, for allegedly circumventing a ban? I have no idea what that means, and I had not logged on in a few days and during my absence I got a 24 hour ban somehow.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.