Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxgeek723:


Yeah but only 2 hurricanes thus far. NHC is making this season MUCH more incredible than it is in reality. I don't think it deserves the title of 2nd most active season on record.


Why? Because there haven't been many hurricanes? Oh well...There has still been a lot of storms that deserved a name (Jose MAY be an exception). I think people are using 2005 as the bar too much as the basis of a record breaking season. Even if we HAVE only had two hurricanes this season...more are to come.

(Not trying to be rude, btw)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Dogs are always overprotective. ;)


Excuse me -- that's mama bears -- not dogs, humph
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460. DDR
Bohonk,thats bad news...
Locally too much rain is affecting our water supply.Weird huh?
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Quoting aquak9:
ais- I think he got confused- we're smokey here in Jax, too, where we both are. I-10 runs through our city, too, so the confusion is understandable. :)


I'm short of an hour and a half north of I10. That I10 is a long busy road.
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I have had south winds blowing for 2 days and my humidity is 18 percent. This is just unbelievable and I have never seen anything like it. If I could Blow up that High Pressure system I would have done it months ago! LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
457. DFWjc
Here's a reply from a local MET -

Larry Mowry
Upper level disturbance, air too dry for much rain. RT @teresasscott: @CBS11Larry Hi Larry, @CBS11Larry why do we have so much cloud cover?

All clouds, no rain = STOP TEASING US UP THERE!!!
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ais- I think he got confused- we're smokey here in Jax, too, where we both are. I-10 runs through our city, too, so the confusion is understandable. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why not? Plus, I said "Pretty Much". I didn't say it was certain. Think about it:

The regular storm alphabet features 21 storms, or letters.

We've already gotten A-N, or 14 named storms. That leaves seven more...



Yeah but only 2 hurricanes thus far. NHC is making this season MUCH more incredible than it is in reality. I don't think it deserves the title of 2nd most active season on record.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Aqua is in florida.


Oops! LOL
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Quoting Jax82:


Heck i'm near you Aqua, just over the intercoastal/JTB, and its been nasty. You'd think the fire would die after months of burning.


Aqua is in florida.
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Quoting Jax82:


Heck i'm near you Aqua, just over the intercoastal/JTB, and its been nasty. You'd think the fire would die after months of burning.


hey 82, I was talking about a new fire in Houston.

Dang, you're like maybe 4 miles from me as the crow flies. Hodges/JTB
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Quoting wxgeek723:


I don't think you can make that call in mid September.


Why not? Plus, I said "Pretty Much". I didn't say it was certain. Think about it:

The regular storm alphabet features 21 storms, or letters.

We've already gotten A-N, or 14 named storms. That leaves seven more...With a good likelihood of at least 1-2 named storms over the next two weeks.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is a very weak front coming into Texas this week and it should not go very far south before moving north as a warm front is what the Local weathermen around here are saying, it could spark isolated shower but chances less than 20 percent.


We're the same in my part of Louisiana, a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon on Wed and Thurs.
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Quoting twincomanche:


For Thurs.
That is a very weak front coming into Texas this week and it should not go very far south before moving north as a warm front is what the Local weathermen around here are saying, it could spark isolated shower but chances less than 20 percent.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay, that's odd.

They must think you are a second handle for someone else that got a ban.

Dare I say it? Yeah.
Seems as though we are suddenly handing out bans left and right around here, but to the wrong people. Let the goofy and distracting remain and ban the level-headed.


Thank you (although I still am baffled why they thought I was an alternate handle, considering I had not posted or even logged on in several days), back to lurking, could get something from Maria (I still have my doubts it will organize enough to be a threat) here in Bermuda.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll be watching for Ophelia, Philippe, and potentially Rina over the next two weeks. However, Ophelia and Philippe especially.

The greek alphabet is PRETTY MUCH a given for this season.


I don't think you can make that call in mid September.
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the pattern in which wilma formed and made landfall in the US looks remarkably similar to the pattern next week to 10 days. weak trough on the east coast with ridging to the north..... also how many hurricanes will we get this season? im thinking 6 to 8 so average to above avregae in terms of hurricanes :)
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Well, I think they've already left. So, I am not so familiar w/the area. Maybe it is just a big grassy park, surrounded by urban concrete.

Guess it's not too much to worry about.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


LOL, TA13. I would be gathering what I might need and putting it in one place just in case. I can always put it back if needed, but if they tell you to suddenly leave, you might not have much time to get together what you might want or need.

Yeah...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dogs are always overprotective. ;)


LOL, TA13. I would be gathering what I might need and putting it in one place just in case. I can always put it back if needed, but if they tell you to suddenly leave, you might not have much time to get together what you might want or need. Three miles is not that far away.
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Quoting aquak9:


Uh...I think taking my kid ANYWHERE right now would be last on my list.

Not being mean, maybe I am just overprotective.


Quoting aislinnpaps:


Evening, Aqua. I was thinking the exact same thing.


Dogs are always overprotective. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting aquak9:


Uh...I think taking my kid ANYWHERE right now would be last on my list.

Not being mean, maybe I am just overprotective.


Evening, Aqua. I was thinking the exact same thing.
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This is from Dallas NWS and Not Good news for Texas: MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRONG UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND CURRENT FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Quoting txjac:
Gotta run the kid to her class ...maybe I can get a closer look as I have to go towards the fire ...some roads are already being closed though


Uh...I think taking my kid ANYWHERE right now would be last on my list.

Not being mean, maybe I am just overprotective.
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Quoting aquak9:
west park tollway looks like a major thoroughfare.


Yes, it is. Rush hour should be ending soon.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
Quoting twincomanche:
I was making fun of Tropic13.


Yeah... :S
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Quoting twincomanche:
I wonder if any of those scattered showers are reaching the ground down there Texas way.
Good question, humidity in Dallas 16 percent, 20 percent here. I would say quite a bit of light shower activity is virga.
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433. txjac
Quoting aquak9:
I found you...is the west oaks mall very big? looks like that's a place to evac pretty quick.


It's a medium sized mall and I'm pretty sure that its already been closed as that is the direction that the fire is burning ...I saw the fire while driving home and was just praying that it wasnt me!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
west park tollway looks like a major thoroughfare.
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Talk about cold...

International Falls, Minnesota is currently a Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning. Guess what their low tomorrow night will be?

52? No.

42? No.

32? No.

22? YES.

With a slight chance of rain.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
I found you...is the west oaks mall very big? looks like that's a place to evac pretty quick.
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427. txjac
Gotta run the kid to her class ...maybe I can get a closer look as I have to go towards the fire ...some roads are already being closed though
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
426. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
TA, That's pretty profound.LOL.


I'm SW of the fire ...the way that its burning ...it hasnt jumped over westheimer parkway yet and is burning on the south side.
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wildfires erupting again across the region this afternoon. Conditions are currently favorable for rapid fire weather growth....
 


Lots of convection in the SoCal area this afternoon.. hope some of it blows your way!
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NOAA local says, winds 15- gust to 32.

No idea where westheimer and eldridge is...I'm in florida.

are you N, S, E or W of the fire?
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422. txjac
Quoting txjac:


Yes, the wind is blowing to I-10 southwards.

I'm at Westheimer and Eldridge area


Just as a pre-caution I have found someone to take six cats and a big dog ...great to have friends that love animals!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
We'll be watching for Ophelia, Philippe, and potentially Rina over the next two weeks. However, Ophelia and Philippe especially.

The greek alphabet is PRETTY MUCH a given for this season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
420. txjac
Quoting aquak9:
This fire is three miles away from my condo ...scary stuff ...and the wind is picking up. No evacuations as of yet although we have a police presence

The wind is blowing the smoke south, towards I-10...is that correct?

Where are you in relation to this fire?


Yes, the wind is blowing to I-10 southwards.

I'm at Westheimer and Eldridge area
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593
Quoting FortBendMan:
There's a new fire near Katy, TX that just started in the George Bush Park. So far no injuries - hopefully it will be contained quickly as this park is fairly close to some large suburban communities in West Houston.

BTW, no rain in Houston but at least we are seeing rain chances in the long range forecasts. 60 pct a week from now (that's the best we can do in Houston these days - just hope for the future). Hopefully today was our last truly hot day of the summer but we'll still have a lot of 90 degree days.
I hope so for some parts of Texas, fronts are suppose to bring us a 10 to 20 percent chance of a shower with lows maybe getting below 100 late next week, they are saying 98 or 99 behind the front here with it being 104 right now. For mid September this is Unreal even for Hot Texas.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
This fire is three miles away from my condo ...scary stuff ...and the wind is picking up. No evacuations as of yet although we have a police presence

The wind is blowing the smoke south, towards I-10...is that correct?

Where are you in relation to this fire?
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417. txjac

Harris County (George Bush Fire): major grass fire has developed in George Bush Park near 16500 Westheimer Parkway. Numerous ground crews are on the fire including Cy-Fair and HFD. Ground crews are requesting air support from both helicopters and fixed wing aircraft. Fire is showing erratic behavior in brush and tall grasses.


This fire is three miles away from my condo ...scary stuff ...and the wind is picking up. No evacuations as of yet although we have a police presence
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2593


Goodnight Maria
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Quoting basti11:



LEVI all im saying for the next 2 weeks ill use louisiana im sure feeling good with these cool fronts coming in so early...we will just have to see how things pan out...the ones that should be concerned is south fla they are the ones going to be under the gun when something develops in the nw or western caribbean...it can take only 2 tracks west into mexico or ne into the keys and south fla..
I live in NOLA and this kind of setup is conducive for a hurricane forming in Lake Pontchartrain and sitting there stationary until it is Cat 3. It might even drift south right over us. The Lake is still 84 degrees. I'm still keeping my guard up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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