Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
substitute the calm before the storm for the lull before storms.

agree. it's hot out there.
The caribbean for example. The GOM.
Saturday was mid-point on The Chart.
anyway, goodnight.
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Quoting basti11:



lol i hope you are not SERIOUS....if we are going to see a hurricane develop it will be in september..im so glad TAMMY IS AT THE END of the list..if she forms this season she will be A BIT** FOR SOMEONE SOUTH OF 23N..


I am dead serious. Last time I checked, that didn't include hurricanes but named storms in total.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dude, what the hell?


And that chart will be even more dramatic when they total Lee's rain, and overlay the two.

Some of the same areas got hit from both, IIRC.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think we'll have a couple more storms this month...

* Ophelia
* Philippe
* Rina
* Sean?

Then October...

* Tammy
* Vince
* Whitney
* Alpha

And November...

* Beta


Imma go a bit more conservative for now and say that we will get to Whitney. Although, if I'm wrong, it will probably be too low.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa.
The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters


good evening.
appears that we're in a mid-season breather.
another week appears things will percolate.
substitute the calm before the storm for the lull before storms.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.


I think we'll have a couple more storms this month...

* Ophelia
* Philippe
* Rina
* Sean?

Then October...

* Tammy
* Vince
* Whitney
* Alpha

And November...

* Beta
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Quoting FrankZapper:
2011 will not be remembered as an ordinary year.
Is there ever an ordinary year?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.
Well if we combine the GFS and ECMWF we'll have Ophelia from the wave off of Africa. Philippe the Caribbean disturbance and Sean and Rina in the middle of the Atlantic by months end.
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Neapolitan, I also read that Lee caused up to 3 billion in damages. If that's the case, Lee could merit retirement.. becoming the 2nd ever Tropical Storm ever retired.
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Quoting twincomanche:
What is an ordinary year?
Let me rephrase. 2011 will be remembered as an extraordinary year.
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Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa.
The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.
--Jeff Masters

there is nothing going on right now except strange maria. in another week it may be a different story.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The Texas drought may last another year or so, who knows? The future outlook for most of Texas into 2012 is not looking promising. The floods throughout the midwest and northeast are terrible, the tornadoes were unbelievable. There is a very good chance the Texas drought will be the most costly by the time it ends? The Winter in the Northeast was not good. The Texas drought is the most persistent disaster that is for sure. To describe 2011 weather in the U.S.A. Costly Disasters come to mind for me. Bless all of those who have suffered losses and who continue to suffer.


2011 is an anomaly. 100% sure that 2012 will be somewhat better although not normal rainfall wise. Better hope for El Nino by the end of fall 2012 to bring in tons of rainfall...

I went through hell in 2005 when I got only 14 inches of rainfall just south of Dallas then it got a little better at 26 inches or whatever in 2006. 2007 was magical....
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

that must be a misstatement,"thats the only way they can go"ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm i don't think so. i see 4-6 more named storms for the season.
I've been saying since the beginning of the season that will use up all the names on the list. So I see 7 more names coming.
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523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.
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Quoting bappit:

That seems a bit unreasonable to ask. Are you making fun?


Yeah.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The Texas drought may last another year or so, who knows? The future outlook for most of Texas into 2012 is not looking promising. The floods throughout the midwest and northeast are terrible, the tornadoes were unbelievable. There is a very good chance the Texas drought will be the most costly by the time it ends? The Winter in the Northeast was not good. The Texas drought is the most persistent disaster that is for sure. To describe 2011 weather in the U.S.A. Costly Disasters come to mind for me. Bless all of those who have suffered losses and who continue to suffer.
2011 will not be remembered as an ordinary year.
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Quoting aquak9:
NOAA local says, winds 15- gust to 32.

No idea where westheimer and eldridge is...I'm in florida.

are you N, S, E or W of the fire?

The grass fire is south of I10 just west of highway 6. SW of the intersection of I10 and 6. Appeared to be headed north when I drove by at rush hour.

Edit: video and news report from 6 pm CDT.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So Levi, when is the next hurricane landfall? :P

That seems a bit unreasonable to ask. Are you making fun?
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Yeah but only 2 hurricanes thus far. NHC is making this season MUCH more incredible than it is in reality. I don't think it deserves the title of 2nd most active season on record.
NHC has criteria that needs to be met to name a storm. They don't just say ummmmmmmmmm, let's flip coin, heads wins and we name the storm. if it's a weak storm, it's a weak storm....just my 2 cents
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think....it's pretty much agreed at this point that the weather story of the year is the Texas drought. Despite the horrendous spring tornados and the historic floods in Vermont and New Jersey and parts of Pa. Texas is bigger(and no I'm not from Texas). At this point the whole country is praying for rain in Texas. This is an ongoing event as well.
The Texas drought may last another year or so, who knows? The future outlook for most of Texas into 2012 is not looking promising. The floods throughout the midwest and northeast are terrible, the tornadoes were unbelievable. There is a very good chance the Texas drought will be the most costly by the time it ends? The Winter in the Northeast was not good. The Texas drought is the most persistent disaster that is for sure. To describe 2011 weather in the U.S.A. Costly Disasters come to mind for me. Bless all of those who have suffered losses and who continue to suffer.
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Quoting basti11:



LEVI all im saying for the next 2 weeks ill use louisiana im sure feeling good with these cool fronts coming in so early...we will just have to see how things pan out...the ones that should be concerned is south fla they are the ones going to be under the gun when something develops in the nw or western caribbean...it can take only 2 tracks west into mexico or ne into the keys and south fla..

that must be a misstatement,"thats the only way they can go"ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm i don't think so. i see 4-6 more named storms for the season.
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks for sticking up for us atmo!

Atmo is still here. Just sayin'.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Talk about cold...

International Falls, Minnesota is currently a Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning. Guess what their low tomorrow night will be?

52? No.

42? No.

32? No.

22? YES.

With a slight chance of rain.


Heh, my husband and brother are about 100 miles north of there. Glad I didn't go now!

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yep - A multi-billion dollar hurricane that caused record flooding in the Northeast, as well is a minor blimp on the radar.

COMPLETELY AGREE...100%!

yeah right..


Tropical Storm Allison dumped over 40 inches in Jefferson county in Texas, killed 41 people and caused 6.8 billion dollars in damage. remember Allison? Maybe you do but if you poll people in the wake of Irene, I bet 90% of those polled wouldn't have a clue about Allison. Why?

But you're probably right. The nation as a whole will have a better recollection of Irene than Allison because, and only because of the fact it a) was talked about ad naseum by media and b) it was an Eastern US event.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Dallas officially reached 107 today, a new record a full seven degrees higher than the previous September 13 record of 100. (It reached 103 there yesterday, itself breaking the record of 100.) Dallas has now reached 100 on 70 different days since June 13, the most ever in a single year there.

Wichita Falls reached 105, also a record. More astoundingly, this was the 100th day in that city this year in which the temperature reached 100, completely obliterating the previous record of 79.

Finally, Oklahoma City also reached a record 102 today, the 63rd day this year the temp has reached 100. The previous record was 50.

FWIW, Dallas should be close to 100 tomorrow before the cold front passes through; Thursday's predicted high is just 81. Wichita Falls will drop to 59 Thursday night after reaching the upper 90s tomorrow; and OKC will be into the low 50s Thursday night. The cool spell will be short-lived, but my family in the area says it will be very welcome. One would imagine so... ;-)
Nea, why do you think it's been so HOT in Texas this year?
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Not sure if you've heard this, but Lee destroyed a bridge built in 1885.
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Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.


Irene caused around 10 billion in damages and killed over 40 people in the US alone.

Your comment about this season being unspectacular is way off base and it kind of scares me. Makes me think that it would take a Katrina-like disaster for you to not feel this way.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Dallas officially reached 107 today, a new record a full seven degrees higher than the previous September 13 record of 100. (It reached 103 there yesterday, itself breaking the record of 100.) Dallas has now reached 100 on 70 different days since June 13, the most ever in a single year there.

Wichita Falls reached 105, also a record. More astoundingly, this was the 100th day in that city this year in which the temperature reached 100, completely obliterating the previous record of 79.

Finally, Oklahoma City also reached a record 102 today, the 63rd day this year the temp has reached 100. The previous record was 50.

FWIW, Dallas should be close to 100 tomorrow before the cold front passes through; Thursday's predicted high is just 81. Wichita Falls will drop to 59 Thursday night after reaching the upper 90s tomorrow; and OKC will be into the low 50s Thursday night. The cool spell will be short-lived, but my family in the area says it will be very welcome. One would imagine so... ;-)


Thanks Nea

I thought Texas was finally supposed to be cooling off though lol
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
last week of september strong ridging no troughs. if a cape verde storm forms thats its final destination. if theres no trough east coast hit. also troughs are bad in the fall they pull carribean storms north into the US
If what you say comes true then that's the pattern change and we may be in trouble. I personally think CV is over. And anything that approaches the Gulf from the Caribbean gets choked by Texas hot and dry air. Now if that dry air goes away?
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Although Maria has been quite a dud intensity wise due to wind shear issues, she has absolutely dumped on Puerto Rico with rain. Hope all our bloggers in PR are doing well, rains should be easing up as Maria moves off. Still more rain in the forecast, however


Latest QPF, hours 12-36


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Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.

Dude, what the hell?
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Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.
I think....it's pretty much agreed at this point that the weather story of the year is the Texas drought. Despite the horrendous spring tornados and the historic floods in Vermont and New Jersey and parts of Pa. Texas is bigger(and no I'm not from Texas). At this point the whole country is praying for rain in Texas. This is an ongoing event as well.
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Quoting Levi32:


The entire Gulf of Mexico is open for business until the end of September, and 2-3 cold nights aren't going to freeze it over with ice. Let's not start feeling all safe while we're in the peak 2 weeks of the season.


How do you feel about the GFS developing the NW caribbean, and not the ECMWF? I feel like when the ECMWF doesn't develop something this year, it usually doesn't. I know it can still change it's tune considering it is a long way out, but what are you thoughts? What do you think is hindering development on the Euro, MJO or perhaps the syestem that is suppose to develop off the NC coast that the Euro showed for a few runs?
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Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.


Yep - A multi-billion dollar hurricane that caused record flooding in the Northeast, as well is a minor blimp on the radar.

COMPLETELY AGREE...100%!

yeah right..
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evening everyone
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, given that its really slow up in here, I thought it would be good to make an announcement.

Starting on June 1st, 2012 I will be posting 5-10 minute video updates with my tropical weather updates on a daily basis. I will be working and experimenting with video editing, recording and sound recording over the next few months with my first video in May.


Cool, I look forward to watching them.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why not? Plus, I said "Pretty Much". I didn't say it was certain. Think about it:

The regular storm alphabet features 21 storms, or letters.

We've already gotten A-N, or 14 named storms. That leaves seven more...With a good likelihood of at least 1-2 named storms over the next two weeks.

It's going to be tough to make it to the greek alphabet. We'd need 8 more storms.

Personally, I don't think we'll make it, but that's just my prediction.

Quoting Levi32:


That's the other point to be made for the other side as well. Meteorologically this season may be nothing extraordinary at this point, but it has left a painful mark and has demonstrated its threat to land. The entire theme of this season was supposed to be smaller numbers than last year but greater threat to land.


??

14 named storms and only 2 hurricanes? 8 Tropical Storms in a row to start off the season?

That's incredibly extraordinary. As far as I am aware, it's never happened before.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why? Because there haven't been many hurricanes? Oh well...There has still been a lot of storms that deserved a name (Jose MAY be an exception). I think people are using 2005 as the bar too much as the basis of a record breaking season. Even if we HAVE only had two hurricanes this season...more are to come.<br>
(Not trying to be rude, btw)



How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Where is the PATTERN CHANGE that the experts have been calling for over a month that was supposed to bring CONUS trouble? Where is Bastardi's FRENZY? The pattern is now changing and it looks like trough city and early fall.
last week of september strong ridging no troughs. if a cape verde storm forms thats its final destination. if theres no trough east coast hit. also troughs are bad in the fall they pull carribean storms north into the US
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Dallas officially reached 107 today, a new record a full seven degrees higher than the previous September 13 record of 100. (It reached 103 there yesterday, itself breaking the record of 100.) Dallas has now reached 100 on 70 different days since June 13, the most ever in a single year there.

Wichita Falls reached 105, also a record. More astoundingly, this was the 100th day in that city this year in which the temperature reached 100, completely obliterating the previous record of 79.

Finally, Oklahoma City also reached a record 102 today, the 63rd day this year the temp has reached 100. The previous record was 50.

FWIW, Dallas should be close to 100 tomorrow before the cold front passes through; Thursday's predicted high is just 81. Wichita Falls will drop to 59 Thursday night after reaching the upper 90s tomorrow; and OKC will be into the low 50s Thursday night. The cool spell will be short-lived, but my family in the area says it will be very welcome. One would imagine so... ;-)
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Where is the PATTERN CHANGE that the experts have been calling for over a month that was supposed to bring CONUS trouble? Where is Bastardi's FRENZY? The pattern is now changing and it looks like trough city and early fall.
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MH09 - That is kinda what we need to watch for...

But this is really nothing new...

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Quoting robert88:
Troughs are unbelievable for this time of year. They are already making it into the Caribbean. There could be a good deal of shear in store for any disturbance that forms in that region. We could easily end up with one cane for the month of September. I have been tracking storms for about 26 years and this year has been quite boring for hurricanes in general. It's mainly been a bunch of struggling tropical storms with very weak on and off pulsating cores. Irene and Katia....meh. Their cores struggled as well and were quite unimpressive for the most part. You would think we would have seen at least one stadium effect eyewall by the peak of the season....especially going by the strong amount of majors we were expected to see by the expert forecasters. Wake me up when we have something like this to track.


I agree with that. This 2011 Atlantic season has to be studied a lot by the experts to see what has been the real cause of the lack of hurricanes. And there was no El Nino to blame as it has been Neutral to La Nina, although with La Nina being officially proclamed recently,the effects in the Atlantic will be later.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
504. robert88 8:16 PM EDT on September 13, 2011

Those troughs that we have had the pleasure of having this season, are no longer going to be our friends come October and November. Those are the bad boys that screw over the Caribbean islands and the southeast United States when they turn Caribbean cyclones north and northeastward towards landmasses.


Lol.

I guess that is a good way to put it. :P
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504. robert88 8:16 PM EDT on September 13, 2011

Those troughs that we have had the pleasure of having this season, are no longer going to be our friends come October and November. Those are the bad boys that screw over the Caribbean islands and the southeast United States when they turn Caribbean cyclones north and northeastward towards landmasses.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.