Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.
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Quoting txjac:
Bush Park fire update.

175 firefighters on the scene. There is NO water in the bayous to put the fire out with. Water is being flown and trucked in. Fire is moving NORTH (previously I said south) so it's moving away from my direction. There are tenative evacuation measures. The north side of highway 6 is closed. This thing just took off so freaking fast ...

I do have my valuables together so I'm pretty ready if I got to get out quickly


Stay safe! I live in Leon County where a big fire was last week. It is so scary to live in Texas now. We want rain so badly, but no lightning!!!!!
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Hurricane Irene likely won't end up in the top 10 costliest hurricanes, but it wont be far behind either..

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603. txjac
Bush Park fire update.

175 firefighters on the scene. There is NO water in the bayous to put the fire out with. Water is being flown and trucked in. Fire is moving NORTH (previously I said south) so it's moving away from my direction. There are tenative evacuation measures. The north side of highway 6 is closed. This thing just took off so freaking fast ...

I do have my valuables together so I'm pretty ready if I got to get out quickly
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Why the Cape Verde storms recurve? They don't understand that we need them in the caribbean... Come come come...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
So they're twins now? LOL.



Fraternal.

Heheh.
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Quoting JLPR2:

Maria's twin in the WPac is doing slightly worse than her.


Is it just me, or do Western Pacific storms always look elongated, and scary? They are always in the bottom part of the satellite position :P
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
So they're twins now? LOL.



Fraternal.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well of course. Been calling them that since yesterday. Both are struggling TS, good enough for me. XD

Well, Maria is doing better. Still a hideous sight though XD
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A billion just isn't what it used to be.
In all things, not only meteorologcally, as some way of comparing one disaster to another, it's just not as simple as looking to a conveniently large number to say it's "greater".
Even adjusted for inflation, the numbers alone don't tell the story. Times change....there weren't as many expensive homes by the coast as there are now. When Gloria blew through the NE, my home at the time was worth 50k, which is when I sold it. Today it's worth 1.4 million, even in a down housing market. It also didn't cost nearly as much to rebuild inland. What would have been a 30k loss to a home in years past is now a 250k re-construct. Especially in the NE. These factors, plus population shift from urban to suburban density, really need to be taken into account when comparing some storm in 1822 or 1964 to another in 2011.
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593. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So they're twins now? LOL.


Well of course. Been calling them that since yesterday. Both are struggling TS, good enough for me. XD
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mjo now shows neutral to negative on the atlantic side meaning favored upward motion. greens showing up. makes sense for the green off africa and western carribean
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I believe 1955 is considered to be the most ordinary year of all time. It was PLEASANTVILLE.



September 1959 was an extrordinary month.


"cause I was born!
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589. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
This season has been good for me. I got hit by Irene, tracked close Emily and Maria.. etc. I expect one more to get close to PR! :P!


If we do get affected again it will probably come from the south, like Omar in 2008.

Storms from the CV area seem ready to swim north.
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Quoting JLPR2:

Maria's twin in the WPac is doing slightly worse than her.

So they're twins now? LOL.
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it makes no sense that the gfs recurves 3 Cape verde systems all east of 50W.... thats not right. at least it shows cape verde development. take with a grain of salt all of them form or recurve
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Quoting FrankZapper:
link please
Link
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585. JLPR2

Maria's twin in the WPac is doing slightly worse than her.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Im watching an argument on youtube right now. America v. Anti-Americans. For some reason its on Cyndi Lauper messes up on the National Anthem at the U.S. Open Tennis video, but one thing is certain, the Anti-US people are making stuff up like, " America has as much poverty as africa. Sry this is really of topic but what a disgrace.

Well, the US Census Bureau says that 46.2 million Americans (almost 1 in 6) currently live in poverty.....

I have no idea what the figures for "Africa" are.
But many people say "Africa" without distinguishing where they are talking about.
It's an entire Continent.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25295
GFS shows ALL OF THE CAPE VERDES RECURVING WHILE SHOWING THE CARRIBEAN SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
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Quoting bappit:

I have to agree with jascott1967. The season has been unspectacular stats-wise--except I find the storms interesting. I still want to know why Irene had such low surface winds when it had a low pressure and higher winds aloft. What I read indicated that the stability of the lower atmosphere affects how strongly winds aloft propagate to the surface. Of course, that is familiar to low level jet watchers when there is an inversion at night, but inversion and hurricane are two words that don't go together, I would think. Must be something more subtle than that. Maybe if a shallow layer of dry air snuck into the circulation ... that would be stable relative to the moist air above. There is such a thing as elevated convection--familiar with that when over cool air masses in Texas, but the heavy rain in North Carolina might not be consistent with that. It is a puzzlement.

Edit: oops I meant to disagree with WNPR and agree with Jascott.


I disagree with both Jascott and you. While this season has not produced the amount of hurricanes that a typical season would, both of the hurricanes we've had have been deadly and costly. Hurricane Irene has killed at least 55 people, and the damage estimates are up to $10.1 billion. It caused record flooding in the Northeast, as well as destroying a very popular bridge (yes, I know, so very anti-climatic). It was the first hurricane to strike the USA in three years as well. To add to your question, my opinion of why Irene was never able to match its pressure, is that the answer is simple -- the storm was so big, it didn't have time enough to up its winds, especially once the dry air began really getting into the system right before the Bahamas.

I could go on about Lee being very costly too, or should be I should say, but I am not going to do that :P
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Neapolitan, I also read that Lee caused up to 3 billion in damages. If that's the case, Lee could merit retirement.. becoming the 2nd ever Tropical Storm ever retired.


Well most of that is attributed to damage in PA and NY after Lee merged with a frontal system so it's still up in the air.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very active season, that is for sure.

One thing I find interesting is the amount of frontal boundary storms we've had this season. Never seen so many..
Very active in terms of named systems, indeed. Although named storms is certainly not the only way to measure tropical activity. As Levi said, it's also probably the worst way to measure total tropical activity and how much the global atmosphere was affected by these storms. For these kind of measurements, ACE would be a better measure of tropical activity.

Anyway, yea we've had 5 storms from frontal boundaries and 8 storms form outside of the tropics (north of 23N). This probably isn't a record (I don't care to go dig through the archives to find out) but it's certainly a rarity, especially at this point in the season.
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575. Relix
This season has been good for me. I got hit by Irene, tracked close Emily and Maria.. etc. I expect one more to get close to PR! :P!
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Im watching an argument on youtube right now. America v. Anti-Americans. For some reason its on Cyndi Lauper messes up on the National Anthem at the U.S. Open Tennis video, but one thing is certain, the Anti-US people are making stuff up like, " America has as much poverty as africa. Sry this is really of topic but what a disgrace.
link please
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Quoting txag91met:
Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.



Did you get any afternoon thunderstorms this summer?
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Just a hello :)

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dude, what the hell?

I have to agree with jascott1967. The season has been unspectacular stats-wise--except I find the storms interesting. I still want to know why Irene had such low surface winds when it had a low pressure and higher winds aloft. What I read indicated that the stability of the lower atmosphere affects how strongly winds aloft propagate to the surface. Of course, that is familiar to low level jet watchers when there is an inversion at night, but inversion and hurricane are two words that don't go together, I would think. Must be something more subtle than that. Maybe if a shallow layer of dry air snuck into the circulation ... that would be stable relative to the moist air above. There is such a thing as elevated convection--familiar with that when over cool air masses in Texas, but the heavy rain in North Carolina might not be consistent with that. It is a puzzlement.

Edit: oops I meant to disagree with WNPR and agree with Jascott.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, we'll see. It should be a really close call between reaching the Greek alphabet and not making it.

Personally, I'm thinking we'll finish out the season with 20-21, although I do recognize that if we do not end on these numbers, it will be more likely that we surpass them then fail to meet them. I could easily see 3 in Sep, 3/4 in Oct, and 1/2 in Nov happening.


Very active season, that is for sure.

One thing I find interesting is the amount of frontal boundary storms we've had this season. Never seen so many..
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Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.



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Quoting hcubed:


And that chart will be even more dramatic when they total Lee's rain, and overlay the two.

Some of the same areas got hit from both, IIRC.

If damage estimates are correct, the total damage this season has done to the US would be over $13 billion. And we still have half of September, October and November.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Is there ever an ordinary year?
I believe 1955 is considered to be the most ordinary year of all time. It was PLEASANTVILLE.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.
Yeah, we'll see. It should be a really close call between reaching the Greek alphabet and not making it.

Personally, I'm thinking we'll finish out the season with 20-21, although I do recognize that if we do not end on these numbers, it will be more likely that we surpass them then fail to meet them. I could easily see 3 in Sep, 3/4 in Oct, and 1/2 in Nov happening.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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