Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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659. DVG
Is Maria reforming a new center, or is that new blob just a temporary burst of convection?
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Quoting scooster67:
Looks like she is finally done with PR. I hope there was little to no loss of lives.


For the moment I haven't heard of fatalities... only material ones....
collapsed bridges, lost homes....
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Quoting twincomanche:
TN will welcome you. Good choice. That's part of real America.

Visited there in the spring and couldn't believe how many folks would smile and wave at a stranger (me) driving down the road. I'm also looking forward to some real weather..
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
gfs and euro clearly make no sense when showing that cape verde wave recurving right away, they show a weakness in the high for a fast recurve yet we are going to be positive nao at the time which means a stronger bermuda high and no weakness...
I see what your saying. I was thinking some Caribbean mischief at that time and wondering where it might go. If that cap storm forms it will go west for a while.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Not many in the US.
I have never been outside the North American continent.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I disagree with both Jascott and you. While this season has not produced the amount of hurricanes that a typical season would, both of the hurricanes we've had have been deadly and costly. Hurricane Irene has killed at least 55 people, and the damage estimates are up to $10.1 billion.

When I mentioned Irene's stats, I wasn't thinking of the damage caused by the flooding. For comparison, Allison did tremendous damage in Houston killing a number of people all from its flooding rains. Allison's name was retired. It was just a tropical storm.

I'm defending what might be Jascott's point of view nonetheless. He may have a different outlook than me of course. At any rate.

I suppose one reason I am sticking with my opinion is that I am worn out by the news of disasters and their horrors. I don't think I have recovered from the calamities of the earthquakes in Haiti and Japan. Patrap posted a video shot by someone in a car floating in the tsunami not long ago. I wonder if they survived or if someone just found the video with their body. Maybe I would like to insulate myself from it all and just think of the physics of the storm. In that respect Irene's stats are intriguing but not particularly extreme for a hurricane.

Also worth considering is that compared to the earthquakes in Haiti and Japan, Irene's damage totals are not that overwhelming either. That may be a harsh statement to anyone who was left homeless by Irene or lost someone close to them, but I don't rate U.S. disasters only on a U.S. scale. I also don't rate hurricane disasters on a hurricane-only disaster scale either.

If I were somehow ignorant of the two tragedies I just mentioned, I might find Irene more imposing--not that I have any intention of diminishing the heartache that Irene has brought to people. I just have a hard time of forgetting the video of Port Au Prince showing a cloud of dust rising over the city, and I cannot forget the terror of the people in the many videos made of the tsunami.
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Quoting scooster67:
I wonder what it will be?

A trough coming to pick it up.

A front pushing it back north east.

neither and it goes into Mexico.



Of course, we will need to have the "it" first. :)
gfs and euro clearly make no sense when showing that cape verde wave recurving right away, they show a weakness in the high for a fast recurve yet we are going to be positive nao at the time which means a stronger bermuda high and no weakness...
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Quoting twincomanche:
Not sure where you are from or if you are quoting someone, but if you are referring to the United States, you are wrong. Just because our leaders have lost their way the rest of us have not.

I'm in SoCal and most people are not kind unless it is convenient or benefits them in some way. I'm moving my family to TN next month because I don't want to raise my kids in this environment..
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like she is finally done with PR. I hope there was little to no loss of lives.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.

Night younger person.
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I wonder what it will be?

A trough coming to pick it up.

A front pushing it back north east.

neither and it goes into Mexico.



Of course, we will need to have the "it" first. :)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, Maria is doing better. Still a hideous sight though XD


Floods for Haiti and Dominican Republic. Maria has caused a lot of problems.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Not many in the US.


I lived in an apartment tower in Toronto at one time. One of the residents made a garden in his 25th floor apartment by putting down plastic sheeting, and then spreading dirt everywhere. He was growing vegetables. The plastic sprung a leak, which is how the indoor garden was found.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
However I have seen some things that would make your head cave in. Ever see a dirt floor?


Stayed in a cabin with one in Belize 20 or so years ago.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Probably get a bit of rain from that soon.
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Quoting presslord:


I have a residential tenant who insists on referring to herself as 'homeless'...because she doesn't own a home...she rents......it nearly makes my head explode...
However I have seen some things that would make your head cave in. Ever see a dirt floor?
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55 deaths...

13-18 Billion (US plus Caribbean)

the cost of Irene....


Throughout its path, Irene caused widespread destruction and at least 55 deaths; monetary losses in the Caribbean could be as high as US$3.1 billion according to preliminary estimates.[7] Early damage estimates in the U.S. are about $10–15 billion.[8]
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Quoting pottery:

Give her a weekend in Port-au-Prince.....


precisely
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


and that's all that matters...

Seriously, I'm off to bed now, lol.

Yeah, me too!

Good night all.
Stay Safe.
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Quoting presslord:


I have a residential tenant who insists on referring to herself as 'homeless'...because she doesn't own a home...she rents......it nearly makes my head explode...

Give her a weekend in Port-au-Prince.....
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I    think you are wright.
Quoting JLPR2:


If we do get affected again it will probably come from the south, like Omar in 2008.

Storms from the CV area seem ready to swim north.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.

LOL I guess I'll go to sleep as well, unless I wanna get up 20 minutes late. XD
Good Night WU.
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Quoting pottery:

Well I was younger than you when I was younger than you but now I'm older than you because you are younger than me.

(well, it makes sense to me)


and that's all that matters...

Seriously, I'm off to bed now, lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Irene likely won't end up in the top 10 costliest hurricanes, but it wont be far behind either..

As your chart indicates those are U.S. Landfall damage estimates, but a couple of those storms also caused billions in damage in the Caribbean. Wilma in Mexico as an example ( not sure figures there) but I know Ivan caused over (U.S$) 3 billion in insured damages just here in Cayman alone.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.

Well I was younger than you when I was younger than you but now I'm older than you because you are younger than me.

(well, it makes sense to me)
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618. JLPR2
What is happening in the Atl is happening in the WPac.
So far the West Pacific has only produced 5 typhoons, a little on the low side if you ask me.
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616. txjac
Bush Park was an awesome place to go. Spent a lot of time there. My son played baseball there from 6-13 and then coached a team during his high school years. There is a large picnic area and plenty of places to walk and let the kids be kids. Also has a nice dog part that my Lylla loves to run in

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Quoting txag91met:
Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.




Totally agree! I live in the piney woods of East Texas. It is so dry here that I live in fear of a storm with lightning without a lot of rain. We had high winds in Leon County last weekend from Tropical Storm Lee and trees blew down and hit the power lines and started a huge fire. Our trees are sooooo stressed!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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