Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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712. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
18:50 PM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (996 hPa) located at 25.0N 136.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 27.0N 131.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 27.4N 129.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 27.5N 128.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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711. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST September 14 2011
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 21.0N 124.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast slowly

Meanwhile, another Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 20.0N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary
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Quoting Quadrantid:


Been up to the Blue Mountains already (though both times I've been up there with my good lady, it's done nothing but rain ;)). I'm definitely going to have to take her with me the next time I go up to the AAT, if she can get some leave (and if my boss is ok with it!). The road trip up from Sydney to the observatory is just awesome - especially coming from a country where a two hour drive is considered a really long way! Seven hours, or so, from UNSW to Siding Spring, going out through the Blue Mountains then turning north - it's just awesome, and really drives it home just how big and empty this place is compared to the UK :D Will have to drag her out to the goldfields at some point, though - though I suspect she'll make the same kind of ring comments... she keeps on hinting about rings, for some reason - I can't quite work it out, myself - after all, she's never been all that keen on jewelery before ;)


Yeah I agree the Blue Mountains are really nice. To bad to hear it rained both times you went up ):. I just recently went up to the Blue Mountains with a group of people from UNSW to do some longboard skateboarding on some of the empty roads which was heaps fun plus we had good weather. I also like the road trip to Siding Spring and the area itself is quite nice. I just like getting out of Sydney period. Hopefully we will have nice warm weather this summer, so I can enjoying the beach for surfing. I wonder if this year will be an active stormy season for NSW and if Queensland will yet again be hit by more tropical cyclones eh?
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Quoting Quadrantid:


Oh, I know that :) But that doesn't justify the unpleasantness that happens around the Climate Change debate.

An interesting thought occurred to me after I posted that article - thinking back, I can't think of a single scientist I know personally who thinks that the climate isn't changing (and I should caution that I know no climate scientists, so no experts on the subject). Similarly, I can't think of any single scientist I've discussed it with (usually at the pub) who would argue that that change is anything other than man made - among the people I work with, at least, its generally accepted that that is the single best explanation for the evidence we've seen. That said, I wouldn't say a single one of us [i]believes[/i] in man-made climate change - that's just not how science works.

The reason that's interesting to me is that when I think about the friends I have who aren't scientists, they're much more divided on the issue. Sure, there are more of them who think the climate is changing than those who think it isn't, but there's still debate there. These include some of the brightest people I know, and so I find it really interesting that there's such a glaring difference in the way that the issue is viewed, just among my friends, between those who are scientists, and those who aren't. Maybe it's down to the way things are played out in the media, or maybe I do know some scientists who disagree with man-made climate change, but they feel peer pressure to remain silent when we're at the pub (though I really hope not! and, to be honest, I doubt it -- most of my mates are an argumentative bunch, so they'd be likely to shout all the louder if they disagreed ;)). I don't know -- but it's an interesting thought/observation :)
The CC debate is evolving, and politics, big business and religion are stepping in IMO. On this blog opinions are about 60/40 proCC. Unfortunately a few CC proponents are overzealous, and seem to harp on the subject alienating those on the fence.

Yes astronomy is a much better field. As is particle physics.

In the iconic movie "The Graduate" he tells the graduate one word about his future........ "plastics". I say to Astronomers and Physicists........ "Gravity".
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Quoting ktymisty:


Stay in Sydney, travel through the Blue Mountains National Park ( world heritage and all ). Drive through to Dubbo and check out the old goldfields ( might find enough for a ring hehehehe ) then on to Parkes for the telescope...a couple of days out west with history and warm sunny days..and even might find a nugget or two


Been up to the Blue Mountains already (though both times I've been up there with my good lady, it's done nothing but rain ;)). I'm definitely going to have to take her with me the next time I go up to the AAT, if she can get some leave (and if my boss is ok with it!). The road trip up from Sydney to the observatory is just awesome - especially coming from a country where a two hour drive is considered a really long way! Seven hours, or so, from UNSW to Siding Spring, going out through the Blue Mountains then turning north - it's just awesome, and really drives it home just how big and empty this place is compared to the UK :D Will have to drag her out to the goldfields at some point, though - though I suspect she'll make the same kind of ring comments... she keeps on hinting about rings, for some reason - I can't quite work it out, myself - after all, she's never been all that keen on jewelery before ;)
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Quoting aspectre:
695 Quadrantid "It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;) ."

Most of the prominent members of the Board of Inquisition were also previously subject to an Inquisition themselves. The Renaissance equivalent of the grilling one would receive to obtain a PhD nowadays, so to speak. And basicly, they gave him a pass.

What got Galileo into trouble was a certain lack of people skills, and an even more abysmal understanding of the politics of Statehood.
The Pope had asked him some cogent questions about his theory. And Galileo answered by publishing a treatise in which those same questions were asked by "The Idiot".
Which unfortunately put the Pope in a bind: let followers think that the Head of the Church allows people to slander&insult the Maker of Kings -- the Pope played both roles in WesternEurope at the time -- or punish Galileo for his (knowing or not) impertinence. The "punishment" of house arrest was about as mild as the Pope could get away with considering the times and the political implications.


Interesting :) It's been a fair while since I've read much about Galileo's arguments with the church (in fact, it's probably been more than a decade :) I knew that his cantankerous and confrontational behaviour had played a role in his punishment (which is a salutory lesson for both sides of the Climate Change debate, actually -- you're more likely to get people to see your point of view if you don't abuse them :P) - though I hadn't realised quite how much so :P

It's interesting that so many of the "big name" scientists from back then were very difficult characters - Newton and Hooke spring to mind, among others. That said, my girlfriend (who's a biologist) has often remarked on how many of my colleagues in the different physics/astro departments I've worked in were somewhat socially lacking - there's definitely still some truth in the fact that physics attracts more than its fair share of difficult characters ;)
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TS.Maria's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 13Sept_6amGMT and ending 14Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 14Sept_6amGMT,
the coastline blob at 40.178n74.012w-blm is the endpoint of the 14Sept_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 44.395n67.9w-05me is the same for the 13Sept_6pmGMT*mapping

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 10.2mph(16.4k/h) on a heading of 335.3degrees(NNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over Corolla,NorthCarolina ~3days22hours from now
(on the Virginia border)

Copy&paste 44.395n67.9w-05me, 40.178n74.012w-blm, 21.4n67.6w-21.8n67.8w, 21.8n67.8w-22.3n67.9w, 22.3n67.9w-23.0n68.1w, 23.0n68.1w-23.8n68.5w, konx, 23.0n68.1w-36.522n75.862w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 14Sept_12amGMT)
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Quoting Quadrantid:


Sadly, I think not -- it's just too far away. In fact, from what I can spot about it on the web, it's probably peaked in brightness. It's still a pretty awesome story, though, to catch it so soon after detonation - there'll be loads of great new science that'll come out of the study of it :)

Fingers crossed we get a closer one some time soon -- I'd love to see a proper naked-eye nova or supernova :) Sadly, I was still a kid, and nothern-hemisphere bound when 1987A happened, so I never got to see that!


Mine will be crossed with you. I missed out on 87 as well. (Still in High School)
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Quoting Quadrantid:


Looks like it to me -- I need to make an effort to get out there while I'm working here. Might be hard to sell a trip to the Dish to my gf, though - think she's more interested in visiting the Barrier Reef and Kangeroo Island, for some reason ;)


Stay in Sydney, travel through the Blue Mountains National Park ( world heritage and all ). Drive through to Dubbo and check out the old goldfields ( might find enough for a ring hehehehe ) then on to Parkes for the telescope...a couple of days out west with history and warm sunny days..and even might find a nugget or two
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
695 Quadrantid "It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;) ."

Most of the prominent members on the Board of Inquisition had previously also been subject to an Inquisition themselves. The Renaissance equivalent of the grilling one would receive to obtain a PhD nowadays, so to speak. And basicly, they gave him a pass.

What got Galileo into trouble was a certain lack of people skills, and a far far more abysmal (as in "What deep dark hole did you just climb out of?") understanding of international politics.
The Pope had asked him some cogent questions about his theory. Galileo answered by publishing a treatise in which those same questions were asked by "The Idiot".
Which unfortunately put the Pope in a bind: let followers think that the Head of the Church allows people to slander&insult the Maker of Kings -- the Pope played both roles in WesternEurope at the time -- or punish Galileo for his (knowing or not) impertinence. The "punishment" of house arrest was about as mild as the Pope could get away with considering the times and the political implications.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes, interesting article.

Whether the Diamond Planet is real or not, things on Earth are not affected by the discovery.(except maybe the price of diamonds might go down.......jk)
But with CC/AGW we could be dealing with a future worse than a post-nuclear one. Who knows?


Oh, I know that :) But that doesn't justify the unpleasantness that happens around the Climate Change debate.

An interesting thought occurred to me after I posted that article - thinking back, I can't think of a single scientist I know personally who thinks that the climate isn't changing (and I should caution that I know no climate scientists, so no experts on the subject). Similarly, I can't think of any single scientist I've discussed it with (usually at the pub) who would argue that that change is anything other than man made - among the people I work with, at least, its generally accepted that that is the single best explanation for the evidence we've seen. That said, I wouldn't say a single one of us [i]believes[/i] in man-made climate change - that's just not how science works.

The reason that's interesting to me is that when I think about the friends I have who aren't scientists, they're much more divided on the issue. Sure, there are more of them who think the climate is changing than those who think it isn't, but there's still debate there. These include some of the brightest people I know, and so I find it really interesting that there's such a glaring difference in the way that the issue is viewed, just among my friends, between those who are scientists, and those who aren't. Maybe it's down to the way things are played out in the media, or maybe I do know some scientists who disagree with man-made climate change, but they feel peer pressure to remain silent when we're at the pub (though I really hope not! and, to be honest, I doubt it -- most of my mates are an argumentative bunch, so they'd be likely to shout all the louder if they disagreed ;)). I don't know -- but it's an interesting thought/observation :)
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Yes, interesting article.

Whether the Diamond Planet is real or not, things on Earth are not affected by the discovery.(except maybe the price of diamonds might go down.......jk)
But with CC/AGW we could be dealing with a future worse than a post-nuclear one. Who knows?
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Quoting ktymisty:


Very good article, and

is that Parkes in the background? Certainly looks like 'the paddock'


Looks like it to me -- I need to make an effort to get out there while I'm working here. Might be hard to sell a trip to the Dish to my gf, though - think she's more interested in visiting the Barrier Reef and Kangeroo Island, for some reason ;)
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Quoting BLee2333:


Then you should know the second half

Hey, in your opinion, do you think that supernova will reach a level bright enough to be seen with the naked eye?


Sadly, I think not -- it's just too far away. In fact, from what I can spot about it on the web, it's probably peaked in brightness. It's still a pretty awesome story, though, to catch it so soon after detonation - there'll be loads of great new science that'll come out of the study of it :)

Fingers crossed we get a closer one some time soon -- I'd love to see a proper naked-eye nova or supernova :) Sadly, I was still a kid, and nothern-hemisphere bound when 1987A happened, so I never got to see that!
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Quoting Quadrantid:
Off topic warning, but since it's awfully quiet here, I thought I'd stir the pot a little -- here's a really interesting article from a big name astronomer here in Australia about the difference between how the media react to Astronomical results and Climate Change results.

I'm really lucky that I work in a field (Astronomy) where people's response is almost universally positive - the few bits of media attention my work has got (far smaller than that which prompted this article though!) have all been great fun, and not at all stressful. I can't imagine what it must be like to be a researcher into Climate Change, knowing how your results will be hammered in the press by people who don't agree with them - regardless of which side of the fence they come down.

Regardless of whether you think Climate Change is happening or not, or whether you think that man is having any influence on it, or not, surely you'd agree that pillorying people purely because their results don't fall into line with your ideas/beliefs is very, very wrong. It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;)).


Very good article, and

is that Parkes in the background? Certainly looks like 'the paddock'
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Crap, won't let me modify my comment. I started to comment on NWFL, but elected not to but it put it in there anyhow. Guess I need to finish it...

You should know then that the second half of the season is usually pretty active for NWFL. Especially the first half of October...
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Quoting fldude99:
I don't want to be too premature, but I think we may be out of the woods for this season needs in NW FL. Just experience and the feel of the air.. and many years


Then you should know the second half
Quoting Quadrantid:
Off topic warning, but since it's awfully quiet here, I thought I'd stir the pot a little -- here's a really interesting article from a big name astronomer here in Australia about the difference between how the media react to Astronomical results and Climate Change results.

I'm really lucky that I work in a field (Astronomy) where people's response is almost universally positive - the few bits of media attention my work has got (far smaller than that which prompted this article though!) have all been great fun, and not at all stressful. I can't imagine what it must be like to be a researcher into Climate Change, knowing how your results will be hammered in the press by people who don't agree with them - regardless of which side of the fence they come down.

Regardless of whether you think Climate Change is happening or not, or whether you think that man is having any influence on it, or not, surely you'd agree that pillorying people purely because their results don't fall into line with your ideas/beliefs is very, very wrong. It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;)).


Hey, in your opinion, do you think that supernova will reach a level bright enough to be seen with the naked eye?
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Off topic warning, but since it's awfully quiet here, I thought I'd stir the pot a little -- here's a really interesting article from a big name astronomer here in Australia about the difference between how the media react to Astronomical results and Climate Change results.

I'm really lucky that I work in a field (Astronomy) where people's response is almost universally positive - the few bits of media attention my work has got (far smaller than that which prompted this article though!) have all been great fun, and not at all stressful. I can't imagine what it must be like to be a researcher into Climate Change, knowing how your results will be hammered in the press by people who don't agree with them - regardless of which side of the fence they come down.

Regardless of whether you think Climate Change is happening or not, or whether you think that man is having any influence on it, or not, surely you'd agree that pillorying people purely because their results don't fall into line with your ideas/beliefs is very, very wrong. It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;)).
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This is mesmerising. Igor had all the hallmarks of a powerful system. We have not yet seen one like this in the ATL.
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Roke's LLC is excessively exposed. Most of the convection is at a distance to the west. It's an interesting observation that the ATL is at a break and the WPAC kicked off.
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692. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
15:50 PM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (996 hPa) located at 24.6N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 26.9N 131.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.4N 129.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 27.5N 128.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 18:50 PM JST..
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Quoting robert88:
Troughs are unbelievable for this time of year. They are already making it into the Caribbean. There could be a good deal of shear in store for any disturbance that forms in that region. We could easily end up with one cane for the month of September. I have been tracking storms for about 26 years and this year has been quite boring for hurricanes in general. It's mainly been a bunch of struggling tropical storms with very weak on and off pulsating cores. Irene and Katia....meh. Their cores struggled as well and were quite unimpressive for the most part. You would think we would have seen at least one stadium effect eyewall by the peak of the season....especially going by the strong amount of majors we were expected to see by the expert forecasters. Wake me up when we have something like this to track.
Ah, I remember Igor. Entertaining storm to track.
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690. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST September 14 2011
===============================

The low pressure area now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal areas of West Bengal and Orissa with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels tilting southwestward with height.

Vortex over north Bay of Bengal moved westward and lies over northwest Bay of Bengal with center near 20.3N 87.5E.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Wind shear at this time is between 10-20 knots but cloud features indicates weakening signs. Associated broken intense convection over Jharkhand and northeast Orissa. Moderate to intense convection over northwest Bay of Bengal
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I feel the same. Irene and Lee were enough. Maybe a few more fish would be nice.
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I don't want to be too premature, but I think we may be out of the woods for this season needs in NW FL. Just experience and the feel of the air.. and many years
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And in Puerto Rico as well.
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Uncle Sam sent me to all kinds of places off the N.A. continent.

Even paid me to go.
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Oh it might get alittle windy up the east coast in a couple of days forgot to mention that in previous post
thanks and good night
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Interesting subject you all are discussing this evening
I have found most of what you would call the poor as in having very little financess or two paychecks from being homeless and most middle class or two paychecks from being poor my opinion anyway for what it might be worth

Looks to be a pretty strong front coming down this ways

48 hr forecast

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21.9n67.9w, 22.1n67.9w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_12amGMT_ATCF
21.8n67.8w, 22.3n67.9w, 23.0n68.1w are now the most recent positions
Starting 13Sept_12amGMT and ending 14Sept_12amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the 14Sept_12amGMT straightline projection,
the coastline dumbbell at 44.395n67.9w-05ME is the endpoint of the straightline projection
on the
13Sept_6pmGMT*mapping connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 34.716n76.703w-MRH is the same for the 13Sept_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 8.3mph(13.8k/h) on a heading of 345.2degrees(NNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over Belmar,NewJersey ~6days from now

Copy&paste 34.716n76.703w-mrh, 44.395n67.9w-05me, 21.1n67.4w-21.4n67.6w, 21.4n67.6w-21.8n67.8w, 21.8n67.8w-22.3n67.9w, 22.3n67.9w-23.0n68.1w, blm, 22.3n67.9w-40.178n74.012w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 13Sept_6pmGMT)

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection.
In this case, the endpoints denoted by 44.395n67.9w-05ME and 34.716n76.703w-MRH have been individually shifted southward and westward...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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Quoting PLsandcrab:

Totally agree! I live in the piney woods of East Texas. It is so dry here that I live in fear of a storm with lightning without a lot of rain. We had high winds in Leon County last weekend from Tropical Storm Lee and trees blew down and hit the power lines and started a huge fire. Our trees are sooooo stressed!


It's the same way here in the Golden Triangle of SETX. I loved that slow soaker of a rain we got from TS Lee. But it was less than 2" here, so it helped a little, but only a very little, and for only a few days. A real rainstorm with the lighting that goes along with it could spell disaster.
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Maria's COC North in the Atlantic...


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 22 Comments: 10052
Quoting DVG:
Is Maria reforming a new center, or is that new blob just a temporary burst of convection?


Did a new center form in the south blob closer to Domincan Republic?
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Hey everyone, Checking in for one sec...
So Maria still the same, Pathetic, but we could see Ophelia and Philippe in the next 10 days. Just got home from my team's first game. We lost, 6-12, but not dissipointed knowing that we lost 42-0 last season against the same team.
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To finish the evening off on a more appropriate note...
ECMWF is showing Maria impacting Maine on the 16th and then another system doing the same on the 20th.. 17th and 18th showing something for North TX... hopefully that will expand as we head to the weekend..
Night all
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The AO and NAO by week two is forecasted to plunge into negative territory which should weaken the Bermuda ridge and slacken the trade winds over the Caribbean. Deepening the troughs over the East. So we should watch the Western Caribbean rather then the coast of Africa.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser