Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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The CPC isn't calling for anything like a cold winter down south. In fact, the official forecast is for a somewhat warmer than normal winter along the Gulf coast.

Click for larger image
outlook


Now, the 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks do call for an area of PDC in the deep Southeast over the next two weeks, but the majority of the country--including, yes, Texas--should range from normal to much above normal (according to these forecasts, Texas won't see "normal" again until next fall):

outlook

outlook
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 13th, with Video
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I was mentinong this yesterday. People believe that the cool weather we have been experiencing down here in the Mississippi Gulf Coast is an anomaly, but I think that this is an early fall and that the hot weather is gone. It might get warmere in the comming days, but the pattern will be that of fall. As far as how it will affect hurricane formation I guess we are still about to see that. The GFS is predicting something big in the GOMEX in less than 300 hours on its 06Z run, but that is way in the future and I would expect chages in this prediction. I think a hurricane is still likely, but not as likely as a few weeks ago. Cool weather will continue and get more intense and this winter will be a cold one for us down here in the Gulf Coast.
I wish I could say the same thing for FL. but we're going to be stuck in the soup for a while yet, I don't expect the first blast of winter until Nov. it's the same thing every year when I go trick-or-treating, you leave the house, and come back hot and sweaty in your costume ;P
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it seems like fall is already here. i believe it rained here in northern cali early sunday morning.
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I remember after Wilma came through nice cool air out of the North came in. It basically pulled a cold front in behind it into South Florida.

I was watching an animated video showing the fronts coming down during this time period. Two cold fronts sweep the entire GOM after Wilma's landfall in Florida.

Here's the site for anyone interested. You can scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the animation (weather map the days before Wilma's landfall in Fl.

http://www.lakeeriewx.com/Meteo241/ResearchTopicF our/HurricaneSteering.html


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dog great live music there papa grows funk is one of many http://www.papagrowsfunk.com/multimedia/video.html radiators were one of my favorites too but they retired also neville brothers rock live
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104. 7544
ok time for a new invest
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Zagat's underground?
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Quoting LazarusRH:



What lake?
I highly doubt we'll see anything less than ~50F north of Lake P late next week with that front.
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Quoting LazarusRH:


Agree with Mandina's
BUT if you want the quarter food, try the Redfish Grill and be sure and get the double chocolate bread pudding.
Also Dickie Brennan's Steakhouse is good.
If your per diem won't cover those, hit the Gumbo Shoppe.

Or, if on the Esplanade end of the quarter, Port of Call for a good steak or tasty burger.

(Just tossing out less expensive, but fairly good alternatives.)
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Quoting Nimitz:


Ask any cabbie to take you to Mandina's on the corner of Canal and Cortez. Forget any restaurants in the Quarter...go to Mandina's, it has extremely good Cajun, Creole and Italian food.


Agree with Mandina's
BUT if you want the quarter food, try the Redfish Grill and be sure and get the double chocolate bread pudding.
Also Dickie Brennan's Steakhouse is good.
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Quoting MtnWX10:


10 day GFS forecast for 700 mb and 850 mb shows parked strong continental high, as well as Bermuda High developing westward. Any development of TC would find it difficult to make northward turns, imo.

Link


Although it is interesting that the only weakness in the ridge is over the central gulf coast....
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Quoting basti11:



on the contrary my friend i do live on the gulfcoast...i have been following hurricanes for over 20 years and i do know what is going to happen..once the cold fronts come down they bring shear and most important dry air and low humidity...so if you think a hurricane could penetrate that force field you are sadly mistaken...just to make a point what happen to NATE...went into mexico could not come north because of the dry air...i rest my case...i have been doing this for a long time my friend and you have nothing to worry about as long as these cool fronts keep coming down...huriicane season is over for the GOM for 2011...


I was mentinong this yesterday. People believe that the cool weather we have been experiencing down here in the Mississippi Gulf Coast is an anomaly, but I think that this is an early fall and that the hot weather is gone. It might get warmere in the comming days, but the pattern will be that of fall. As far as how it will affect hurricane formation I guess we are still about to see that. The GFS is predicting something big in the GOMEX in less than 300 hours on its 06Z run, but that is way in the future and I would expect chages in this prediction. I think a hurricane is still likely, but not as likely as a few weeks ago. Cool weather will continue and get more intense and this winter will be a cold one for us down here in the Gulf Coast.
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10 day GFS forecast for 700 mb and 850 mb shows parked strong continental high, as well as Bermuda High developing westward. Any development of TC would find it difficult to make northward turns, imo.

Link
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Quoting basti11:



on the contrary my friend i do live on the gulfcoast...i have been following hurricanes for over 20 years and i do know what is going to happen..once the cold fronts come down they bring shear and most important dry air and low humidity...so if you think a hurricane could penetrate that force field you are sadly mistaken...just to make a point what happen to NATE...went into mexico could not come north because of the dry air...i rest my case...i have been doing this for a long time my friend and you have nothing to worry about as long as these cool fronts keep coming down...huriicane season is over for the GOM for 2011...


No evidence of a strong cold front as far south as Houston for the next 2 weeks on the NAEFS ensembles although it doesn't look like max temperatures will exceed 100F again this year after tomorrrow. Also, the chances of precip do go up a little beginning this weekend. Link
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Finally, will start disipating North...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9899
Quoting basti11:


well you need to look my friend we have a cool front coming in for thursday and a major coming in for next friday...temps are forecast to be in the upper 30s north of the lake and the upper 40s in the city...just giving you the facts a CAP will be over the GOM from this thursday on...we are done with hurricane season my friend..



What lake?
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The largest river (La Plata) in Puerto Rico is out of banks. PR has suffered this 2011 season by the tails of Irene and now Maria.

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Quoting kshipre1:
if any potential future storm wants to do anything in the caribean and GOM, it will have to overcome plenty of dry air. That is a pretty big dome of high pressure setting up...


7-DAY FORECAST
for DALLAS, TX 75231

Today
107° | 78° 41° | 25° Sunny Hum.: 21% Precip.: 10% Wind: SW at 14 mph
Wed 14
102° | 75° 38° | 23° Isolated T-storms Hum.: 26% Precip.: 30% Wind: SSW at 12 mph
Thu 15
90° | 68° 32° | 20° Isolated T-storms Hum.: 46% Precip.: 30% Wind: ESE at 12 mph
Fri 16
90° | 74° 32° | 23° Isolated T-storms Hum.: 49% Precip.: 30% Wind: ESE at 12 mph
Sat 17
95° | 75° 35° | 23° Isolated T-storms Hum.: 49% Precip.: 30% Wind: ESE at 12 mph
Sun 18
96° | 75° 35° | 23° Scattered T-storms Hum.: 46% Precip.: 40% Wind: ESE at 12 mph
Mon 19
95° | 74° 35° | 23° Scattered T-storms Hum.: 49% Precip.: 40% Wind: ESE at 12 mph
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\\
5 day QPF
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if any potential future storm wants to do anything in the caribean and GOM, it will have to overcome plenty of dry air. That is a pretty big dome of high pressure setting up...
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HPC still has the low off of NC in the 7 day forecast

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Quoting AussieStorm:

so does that mean you have 80% chance of no rain, BOOOOOOOOOOO




As long as one of those 20% parks itself over my yard, I will be happy. Plus, 20% is much better than the 0% we have had lately. There's always hope!
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83. MTWX
Quoting AegirsGal:
Take a short trip on one of the paddle boats, if you have time. Also the French Market Restaurant on Decatur (in the Quarter) has the best char-grilled oysters and calamari! Fleur De Lis on Chartres (also in the Quarter) has the best muffuletta's and Potato salad. Sorry, when I think of Nola, I think of food.

Can't forget the ACME Oyster House, if you are into raw bivalve scene!!! They are excelent there!
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82. jpsb
Quoting basti11:



on the contrary my friend i do live on the gulfcoast...i have been following hurricanes for over 20 years and i do know what is going to happen..once the cold fronts come down they bring shear and most important dry air and low humidity...so if you think a hurricane could penetrate that force field you are sadly mistaken...just to make a point what happen to NATE...went into mexico could not come north because of the dry air...i rest my case...i have been doing this for a long time my friend and you have nothing to worry about as long as these cool fronts keep coming down...huriicane season is over for the GOM for 2011...
Dido, you are correct, once the cold fronts start no more hurricanes for my part of Texas (S.E) for sure.
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Quoting Nimitz:


Ask any cabbie to take you to Mandina's on the corner of Canal and Cortez. Forget any restaurants in the Quarter...go to Mandina's, it has extremely good Cajun, Creole and Italian food.
Take a short trip on one of the paddle boats, if you have time. Also the French Market Restaurant on Decatur (in the Quarter) has the best char-grilled oysters and calamari! Fleur De Lis on Chartres (also in the Quarter) has the best muffuletta's and Potato salad. Sorry, when I think of Nola, I think of food.
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that is interesting but most likely those tracks will change so much over time

not discounting it and scary to see a possible wilma like storm
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Quoting keisa90:



For what it's worth:



NWS Houston, TX...

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.

so does that mean you have 80% chance of no rain, BOOOOOOOOOOO
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Quoting Nimitz:


Ask any cabbie to take you to Mandina's on the corner of Canal and Cortez. Forget any restaurants in the Quarter...go to Mandina's, it has extremely good Cajun, Creole and Italian food.


That was what i wanted....something like that for an answere...thank you Nimitz. Gotta burn that per diem on something!
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Quoting hophead:
Question of curiousity for the masses regarding the talk of a "break" in the weather in TX. If relief comes into play and TX gets some rain and some cooling, what does this do with the high pressure that is over TX due to these drought conditions. More importantly, if that high weakens, how does that affect steering paths of upcoming storms.

It seems to me a case of be careful what you wish for. A lowering of the dome, shall we call it the TX hurricane shield, opens the area to severe potential as we enter the GOM part of the season.

I realize it is what it is and steering is complex, just some "what if" musings....thanks for indulging.


Good question. According to Basti, the season's over anyhow so we shouldn't worry. By the way, has someone called the paramedics over to Basti's house? I believe he's choking on his foot. Don't worry Basti, crow will help the sore throat you probably have.
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Quoting hophead:
Question of curiousity for the masses regarding the talk of a "break" in the weather in TX. If relief comes into play and TX gets some rain and some cooling, what does this do with the high pressure that is over TX due to these drought conditions. More importantly, if that high weakens, how does that affect steering paths of upcoming storms.

It seems to me a case of be careful what you wish for. A lowering of the dome, shall we call it the TX hurricane shield, opens the area to severe potential as we enter the GOM part of the season.

I realize it is what it is and steering is complex, just some "what if" musings....thanks for indulging.




I think a lot of people around here would welcome a tropical system as long as it is not another Ike.
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Quoting basti11:



yes i agree with you..


http://www.accuweather.com/us/tx/midlothian/76065 /forecast-month.asp

For my area. Looks like there's two cold front coming. One is a dry one and 2nd one is a wet one. Let's hope it happens.
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Quoting Buhdog:
FLying into the Big Easy today for the 1st time for a short bizz trip. Any suggestions for site seeing downtownish area? Obviously french quarters....i don't think patrap wants me over for a fresca, but that would be cool.

have a good couple days crews...i will lurk you over.


Ask any cabbie to take you to Mandina's on the corner of Canal and Cortez. Forget any restaurants in the Quarter...go to Mandina's, it has extremely good Cajun, Creole and Italian food.
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Quoting basti11:



im not saying for se fla its onlt for the gom from brownsville to cedar keys fla on the gom side...you guys are still in the soup in se fla and the bahamas..


I'm not sure about the entire Gulf Coast.
But I did have an old professor at U.T. tell me (weather and climate class) that the first "strong cold front" to clear the Texas coast and make it into the GOM pretty much ends the hurricane season for Texas. I don't know about rest of the Gulf Coast.

But he ment a "strong cold front" clearing the state and just Texas' hurricane season.
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Question of curiousity for the masses regarding the talk of a "break" in the weather in TX. If relief comes into play and TX gets some rain and some cooling, what does this do with the high pressure that is over TX due to these drought conditions. More importantly, if that high weakens, how does that affect steering paths of upcoming storms.

It seems to me a case of be careful what you wish for. A lowering of the dome, shall we call it the TX hurricane shield, opens the area to severe potential as we enter the GOM part of the season.

I realize it is what it is and steering is complex, just some "what if" musings....thanks for indulging.
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basti, it would take for that front to stall for weeks to cool down the waters...it aint gonna happen, and i take it that you dont live along the gom...dont worry plenty of people on here have good ideas on how to cook CROW!!!
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FLying into the Big Easy today for the 1st time for a short bizz trip. Any suggestions for site seeing downtownish area? Obviously french quarters....i don't think patrap wants me over for a fresca, but that would be cool.

have a good couple days crews...i will lurk you over.
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Quoting basti11:


well you need to look my friend we have a cool front coming in for thursday and a major coming in for next friday...temps are forecast to be in the upper 30s north of the lake and the upper 40s in the city...just giving you the facts a CAP will be over the GOM from this thursday on...we are done with hurricane season my friend..


That's almost funny. The hurricane season is over on Sept. 13th.
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HOUSTON—The triple-digits are expected to linger for two more days, then –guess what – go away! You heard it: "A change of seasons" is almost upon us so ... keep your fingers crossed ... it may be time to say bye-bye to the extreme heat, according to KHOU 11 News Meteorologist David Paul.

Tuesday’s highs, which are expected to blow away the previous record of 98 degrees, will top off around 102 and hold steady in the triple-digits through Wednesday. After that, they will drop to the upper-90s Thursday, and continue on a downward trend to the lower-90s through the weekend.

Our rain chances increase as the days go by, but don’t look for any over the next couple days.

"There’s a slight chance for the weekend; but next week is looking a little more meaty," said Paul
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Quoting basti11:




hes halucinating...that high isnt going anywhere for at least a week..


Just remember you heard it here first. Rain Friday through Wednesday of next week. I hope crow tastes good.
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Quoting basti11:




hes halucinating...that high isnt going anywhere for at least a week..



For what it's worth:



NWS Houston, TX...

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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