Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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Post 209, Patrap.
Maria is stuck.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24879
Quoting gwadaman:


Hi WxLogic, can i get a link to this.....

Thanks

Newbie questions:
1. what is meant by Pouch, and explain naming convention corresponding to P26L
2. Are these similar to Invests (earlier chronologically than Invests)?
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Quoting MtnWX10:


I prefer the term Global Climate Chaos

I can go with that.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24879
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


lol.
You won't get any AGW post from me. I try to stay out of those debates.

Very wise!

Hot, Overcast, Humid and Still here at 11n 61w.
And not much going on in the ITCZ or across the Trop. Atl.
Strange season, this one.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24879
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


lol.
You won't get any AGW post from me. I try to stay out of those debates.


I prefer the term Global Climate Chaos
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Quoting pottery:

Is this an AGW post, in disguise?

:):))


lol.
You won't get any AGW post from me. I try to stay out of those debates.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Richmond seemed like it always got rain in the past.
But recently, it seems like it has gotten a lot more snow. The past few winters especially.


It did seem that way. Richmond tended to get primarily rain from coastal storms 3-5 years back, while 30 miles to the west got snow or sleet. A lot has changed
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Richmond seemed like it always got rain in the past.
But recently, it seems like it has gotten a lot more snow. The past few winters especially.

Is this an AGW post, in disguise?

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24879
Quoting tropicfreak:


It varied a lot over a small area. East End of Richmond saw 2-4" while the West End got a foot or more. I live just SW of Richmond in Chesterfield County.


Richmond seemed like it always got rain in the past.
But recently, it seems like it has gotten a lot more snow. The past few winters especially.
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Quoting dfwWxDude:


Eat lunch at Mother's on Poydras, supper at Paul Prudhomme's restaurant "K-Paul's". And you have to get Beignets, either at Cafe Du Monde or there is a better place in Metarie I hear.

If you like Architecture, take the St. Charles trolley car to uptown and back, beautiful.

There are a lot of neat shops near the Crescent City farmers market, but they close early.

Was just there in August. Enjoy the tropical humidity! And do not think for a second the afternoon shower will cool thing off!


Gee, why not send him to EVERY tourist trap?? LOL.

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Quoting Patrap:


Boone is nice,,thats my retirement land.

Yeah..........so true. But dont try to make a living here unless you can do it by breathing air.
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Quoting Patrap:


Boone is nice,,thats my retirement land.


Been there before, located in the middle of all those ski resorts.
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Quoting MtnWX10:


True....but in the mountains of western NC at 4000-6000 ft ASL, it is a bit more dramatic..imo


Boone is nice,,thats my retirement land.
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Quoting mossyhead:
They say that everywhere.


True....but in the mountains of western NC at 4000-6000 ft ASL, it is a bit more dramatic..imo
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, it can be just a few miles either way. One storm we got all rain so we would drive about 10 miles to go sledding. They had about a foot of snow on the ground just a few miles to our NW.


It varied a lot over a small area. East End of Richmond saw 2-4" while the West End got a foot or more. I live just SW of Richmond in Chesterfield County.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
"Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated."


Based on this, I wonder why the British would bother coming to the U.S. to experience severe weather. There hasn't been really anything other than Charley or Andrew that's the winds produced in 1986 there in that part of the U.K.

Not to say that hurricanes aren't destructive. But those intense winds in the U.K. were produced by an unnamed system, yet we get stupid tropical storms like Lee that get more attention.


I think many would be shocked to find there are places like the U.K. and other areas in the world that get powerful extra-tropical storms that get very little attention yet surpass the wind force of most hurricanes...

So, people coming from the U.K. would be surprised to find that the British Isles has been hit with hurricane force winds far more than the Tampa Bay area has which is supposedly in the "dangerous tropics".


Funny to think on that.

Good point.
Also, keep in mind that the British dont tend to build on Beaches, and their buildings are generally properly built to withstand winds.
Bermuda is a good example as well.

Recent American construction is rather Flimsy by comparison.

It's the destruction that makes the News.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24879
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Hurrianes take the path of least resistance. Wilma followed the path of lowest pressure to the N.E along the trough.

And the rush of cool air after Wilma's passing was refreshing. In my area its usually hot and humid after a hurricane hits. But after Wilma came through a real strong north wind came through.


Thank goodness it was cool in S. Fl. after Wilma because our power was out for 10 days. We already had power outages during the blistering heat earlier that season, so it would have been tough to deal with that again.
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CMC 12Z..end of the run

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


My sister lives in Richmond, and I used to live in Alexandria Virginia. We seemed to always be right on the rain/snow line. Anyone east and south of our location got rain and anyone north and west got snow. It drove me crazy.


Yeah, it can be just a few miles either way. One storm we got all rain so we would drive about 10 miles to go sledding. They had about a foot of snow on the ground just a few miles to our NW.
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"Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated."


Based on this, I wonder why the British would bother coming to the U.S. to experience severe weather. There hasn't been really anything in Florida other than Charley or Andrew that could match the winds produced in 1986 there in that part of the U.K.

Not to say that hurricanes aren't destructive. But those intense winds in the U.K. were produced by an unnamed system, yet we get stupid tropical storms like Lee that get more attention.


I think many would be shocked to find there are places like the U.K. and other areas in the world that get powerful extra-tropical storms that get very little attention yet surpass the wind force of most hurricanes...

So, people coming from the U.K. would be surprised to find that the British Isles has been hit with hurricane force winds far more than the Tampa Bay area has which is supposedly in the "dangerous tropics".


Funny to think on that.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


My sister lives in Richmond, and I used to live in Alexandria Virginia. We seemed to always be right on the rain/snow line. Anyone east and south of our location got rain and anyone north and west got snow. It drove me crazy.


That mid December storm in 2009 left me on the edge, it was raining just a mile away from my house, while I was getting sleet. I got 10" out of that storm. Scared the crap out of me.
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Go to work with a 30% chance of snow flurries and you end up with 6"-10" of snow. lol
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Once again Richmond VA is on that line, sigh I hate watching winter storms here, any little shift in track could mean a big shift on the rain snow line, I hate it.


My sister lives in Richmond, and I used to live in Alexandria Virginia. We seemed to always be right on the rain/snow line. Anyone east and south of our location got rain and anyone north and west got snow. It drove me crazy.
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From 101 AussieStorm "[a link to] Impact of Northeast Flooding on Chesapeake Bay."

Can't believe the politicians are still talking about cutting the NOAA/NWS budget. That report alone is probably generating a HUGE amount of deal-making amongst seafood buyers and seafood sellers, and moving an even larger amount of money in the seafood futures market.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Preliminary winter outlook. Old prediction.



Once again Richmond VA is on that line, sigh I hate watching winter storms here, any little shift in track could mean a big shift on the rain snow line, I hate it.
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Quoting MtnWX10:


And as they say in WNC, "If you dont like the weather, wait ten minutes and it will change."
They say that everywhere.
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Quoting dfwWxDude:


Eat lunch at Mother's on Poydras, supper at Paul Prudhomme's restaurant "K-Paul's". And you have to get Beignets, either at Cafe Du Monde or there is a better place in Metarie I hear.

If you like Architecture, take the St. Charles trolley car to uptown and back, beautiful.

There are a lot of neat shops near the Crescent City farmers market, but they close early.

Was just there in August. Enjoy the tropical humidity! And do not think for a second the afternoon shower will cool thing off!
Morning Call?

Been there a long time, for Metairie (my pop used to frequent in the early 70s). Is rather good, without the tourist-y-ness of Cafe Du Monde.
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‎12z GFS Ensembles continue to gravitate towards a trough in the east by Day 12, a pattern associated strongly with late-season developments in the western Caribbean that move north or northeast into the gulf, Florida, or Bahamas.

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Quoting starbuck02:


In SW Florida last year it was cold in November/December but January - March was way warmer than average.


Yeah, it was a cold winter, but we had an early Spring. It started getting warmer in March and it stayed that way.
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Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

question for you. so bascially you think chances are pretty slim that the south will experience an overall cooler winter like last year even though it will be a La Nina? thanks


In SW Florida last year it was cold in November/December but January - March was way warmer than average.
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179. DFWjc
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, Wichita Falls, Texas, is at 101 degrees right now. That's the 100th day this year that city has hit the century mark.

The old record was 79.


THEY SAID IT COULDN’T BE DONE…

Actually we’ve all been saying we hope it could never be done…but it did. Today just before 2pm we hit 100° at DFW Airport for the 69th time this year. This ties the all-time record for number of days in the triple digits set back in that infamous year of 1980. We also set a new record high today, eclipsing the old record of 100° set back in 1930.

We’ll very likely set another record high temperature tomorrow as we expect temps close to 105°! And tomorrow thus we will establish a new bar when we hit 100°+ for the 70th time this year, and leave 1980 in the dust.
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12Z CMC @144HR starting to pick up on something:

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, the tails of Irene and Maria have been worse for Puerto Rico in the 2011 Atlantic season than the actual systems making landfall because of the massive flooding that has occured with both. See some photos of todays events.

Link


Wow...that looks pretty bad. I didn't realize Maria was giving you so much rain on the back side.
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Levi, the tails of Irene and Maria have been worse for Puerto Rico in the 2011 Atlantic season than the actual systems making landfall because of the massive flooding that has occured with both. See some photos of todays events.

Link
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Quoting gwadaman:


Hi WxLogic, can i get a link to this.....

Thanks


Hi... link to which GFS/NGP/or Tropical Wave Pouch site?
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Quoting LazarusRH:


Agree with Mandina's
BUT if you want the quarter food, try the Redfish Grill and be sure and get the double chocolate bread pudding.
Also Dickie Brennan's Steakhouse is good.


If you're looking for BBQ Shrimp, Mr. B's, 201 Royal Street...........yummy!!
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Quoting klew136:
Levi, what is the difference between hybrid and tropical storms?


"Hybrid" is just another word used to describe subtropical storms, since they are a hybrid of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.
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Quoting 996tt:


Haha, this dude is all over the place and, unfortunately, pretty much lached on to my theory about the front and the questions I was asking as Lee was going through last Monday. He and his infinite wisdom on fronts and X years of forecasting initially said Nate would hit Mobile and was stuck on Mobile for about the first 4 days of Nate. I was the lone voice pondering whether the Northern GOM might be closed due to early and deep front[s] and whether all storms inlcuding Nate would go west into Mexico or take a Wilma line through the Florids straights.

Regrettably, he bought into that theory now and seemingly enjoys using the theory to tell everyone the party is over. Kind of like the fat kid who is elated when the party is over because he didn't get invited . . .


I have always heard the front thing, but the fronts are usually latter in the year (October - November). I have yet to hear one real Met state that steering "this season" is now altered by these unseasonably cool fronts diving through the South and I am just neophyte weather dude who is still holding out hope that we can get some action in the Northern GOM, or at least a nice swell or two.

Not sure why, but I have this mental image of Basti11 being some overweight kook sitting around in his white fruit-of-the-looms and bath robe typing away.


Hilarious! +100
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aspectre "...TS.Maria was headed toward passage over MoreheadCity,NorthCarolina..."
39 EasyRiderX [inre the comment&mapping on page1comment29] "Maria is going to the Outer Banks?"

Maria was going to the OuterBanks.
6hours before that, Maria was going to (Beaufort)MoreheadCity, NorthCarolina
6hours before that, Maria was going to TopSailBeach, NorthCarolina.
6hours before that, Maria was going to Beaufort,SouthCarolina
6hours before that, Maria was going to RoatanIsland(OuterBanks)NorthCarolina.
6hours before that, Maria was going to MayaguanaIsland,Bahamas...

The straightline projection isn't a forecast. It doesn't tell where a TropicalCyclone will head, it doesn't even tell where it is heading.
It only tells of where a TropicalHeading was headed.
And as you can see from the examples above, it's pretty much a safe bet that it isn't heading right now to where it was heading.

For a lengthy explanation of what the straightline projection actually is, what it can be used for, and how it should be read, click on this link to blog1918page47comment2349.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Hurrianes take the path of least resistance. Wilma followed the path of lowest pressure to the N.E along the trough.

And the rush of cool air after Wilma's passing was refreshing. In my area its usually hot and humid after a hurricane hits. But after Wilma came through a real strong north wind came through.
Yeah you are right. The only good thing about the cool air was right after Wilma flooded my home, I was able to sleep with the doors and windows open to help dry it out. Of course, I had no electric, so without that cool air, I would have been sweating and being eaten by mosquitos. There are all kinds of blessings in disguise with Wilma. But I won't go into that. It would take too long.
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Levi, what is the difference between hybrid and tropical storms?
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks I'm glad you enjoyed it :)

During the hurricane season I usually make a video every day. I don't currently have a personal website outside of a facebook page, but I am designing one hopefully for next year.


Keep up the excellent work and I'll keep checking those "bits."
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Quoting kwgirl:
You have that backwards. Wilma was sitting over in the Yucatan and the cold front came through and pushed her East. Otherwise, it would have kept going into the GOM and Texas.


Hurrianes take the path of least resistance. Wilma followed the path of lowest pressure to the N.E along the trough.

And the rush of cool air after Wilma's passing was refreshing. In my area its usually hot and humid after a hurricane hits. But after Wilma came through a real strong north wind came through.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol. While it is true, last year was something that hasn't really happened before in our records, so the chances of it happening again for a 2nd year in a row are pretty small, and it is likely to be a more typical La Nina winter. Who knows though. You can never say never with the weather.


And as they say in WNC, "If you dont like the weather, wait ten minutes and it will change."
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FWIW, Wichita Falls, Texas, is at 101 degrees right now. That's the 100th day this year that city has hit the century mark.

The old record was 79.
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Quoting Grothar:


Anomalies can repeat themselves in a row. You never saw my sister's three kids.


Lol. While it is true, last year was something that hasn't really happened before in our records, so the chances of it happening again for a 2nd year in a row are pretty small, and it is likely to be a more typical La Nina winter. Who knows though. You can never say never with the weather.
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Yes, the generalizations of La Nina are vague. For Texas, La Nina is supposed to bring a cooler winter. My question was, cooler than what, cooler than cold? Cooler than hot?

Turns out, it means both. Since La Nina brings a westerly flow across the south US, it inhibits the back and forth swings of severe cold fronts and either warm/moist gulf air or warm/dry air from the SW. So we should be a bit warmer on average I suppose.

Not that any of that mattered last year, with the North Atlantic Oscillation.



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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Levi:
Thank you for your Tropical Tidbit; I thoroughly enjoyed listening. I don't know what your background is but you explained it all so succinctly. Will you be continuing with the Tidbits? Do you have a website?
Thanks again!

Gulfbeachgal


Thanks I'm glad you enjoyed it :)

During the hurricane season I usually make a video every day. I don't currently have a personal website outside of a facebook page, but I am designing one hopefully for next year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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