Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting twincomanche:
You had one like this in the 1950s.


This year in Texas has been drier than any of the years in the 1950s when averaged for the state.

1917 was Texas's driest year but it was just a one year drought.

I'm out.
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The grounds here are still saturated with all the heavy rain that Tropical Storm Irene caused and the rain in the recent days following the storm, now experiencing the tail of Maria sin early this morning. In the southwest part of the island it has strop raining but the damage is already done. This has been a very rainy hurricane season for Puerto Rico.
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i hope nobody is getting scared of anything hitting tampa bay
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Quoting Skyepony:
Gulf of Mexico getting dusted today..


Won't be surprised that a lot of it is from TX.

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Reporting from PUERTO RICO. Tropical Storm maria is well north of the island but we are experiencing heavy rain this morning over 10 inches in spots or higher. last night i was awaken by heavy lightning strike close to my house. 2 bridges collapsed in Patillas,PR in the southeast part of the island and 3 minutes from my house allegedly a car got swept away in the river with people inside i hope that not true well that's all for now from Puerto Rico.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



You are exactly right, buildings around here are built very poor. Even a category 2 would tear apart the Tampa Bay area. And the northern U.S. takes damage even worse from wind than us...
I have to agree with you there, around tampa bay and probably all across this great country of ours, saving a buck or two has become the norm, especially in building quality buildings with quality building materials, I am scared to death of say a cat 2 hurricane coming IN here, most of these houses would be gone, Cheaper to rebuild?
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yep. and if any system is going to do anything in the GOM, it will have to fight all the dry air
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Yeah, Dallas has broken their daily record. The old record was 100 in 1965.
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agreed. they give accurate enough or fair info on potential of tropical development but location wise very unreliable
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249. Skyepony (Mod)
Gulf of Mexico getting dusted today..
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Boone, Watauga County
Lat: 36.2 Lon: -81.65 Elev: 3146
Last Update on Sep 13, 3:15 pm EDT


Fair

75 °F
(24 °C) Humidity: 34 %
Wind Speed: N 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.12"
Dewpoint: 45 °F (7 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi


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Quoting Birthmark:

C'mon down to Murphy. I heard there was a guy buildin' a cabin up the road!

lol, Im done banging nails.
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Quoting TampaTom:


And, not the feel good Beach Boys kinda endless summer...


No. I found the whole "endless summer" movie on youtube but didn't post it. Just seems cruel.

We had our hottest month ever in July, and that was bad enough.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Why's it raining in the desert




Talk about adding insult to injury..
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RitaEvac I'm sure this will turn out to be a record high as well.

That also makes day 70 of 100+ days in Dallas this year. A new record.

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On the news last night, they said according to some tree rings they did some samples on years back that they calculated the last devastating drought in TX like this was in the mid 1700s and the one previous of that was 1500s. So I guess about every 200 some years we get these droughts like this.
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Quoting MtnWX10:

Yeah..........so true. But dont try to make a living here unless you can do it by breathing air.

C'mon down to Murphy. I heard there was a guy buildin' a cabin up the road!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


This year Texas has been the land of the endless summer :-/


And, not the feel good Beach Boys kinda endless summer...
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Record high temperature set at Dallas Fort Worth...

a record high temperature of 103 degrees was set at Dallas Fort
Worth yesterday. This breaks the old record of 100 set in 1930.

Record high temperature set at Austin Bergstrom...

a record high temperature of 102 degrees was set at Austin
Bergstrom today breaking the old record of 100 set in 2000

Record high temperature set yesterday at Corpus Christi...

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Corpus Christi
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 98 set in 1965.
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239. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
3:00 AM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (998 hPa) located at 23.1N 137.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 25.0N 134.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 26.7N 130.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 27.2N 129.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Fresh off the press

Statement as of 2:03 PM CDT on September 13, 2011

... Record high temperature set at Houston intercontinental...

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Houston
intercontinental this afternoon. This breaks the previous city of
Houston high temperature record of 98 degrees set in 1912. The
temperature will probably warm a few more degrees this afternoon and
if the value reaches 102 degrees or warmer... 2011 will have the
distinguished Honor of having the earliest 102 degree day and the
latest 102 degree day in a calendar year.


This year Texas has been the land of the endless summer :-/
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Why's it raining in the desert


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12z CMC ensembles are in the camp of allowing home-grown development to occur off the SE US coast farther north than the Caribbean, but caused by the same high over New England.

Day 8:

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Derrumbes mean mudslides.


That's awful! The rainband needs to move away from Puerto Rico now!
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Fresh off the press

Statement as of 2:03 PM CDT on September 13, 2011

... Record high temperature set at Houston intercontinental...

A record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at Houston
intercontinental this afternoon. This breaks the previous city of
Houston high temperature record of 98 degrees set in 1912. The
temperature will probably warm a few more degrees this afternoon and
if the value reaches 102 degrees or warmer... 2011 will have the
distinguished Honor of having the earliest 102 degree day and the
latest 102 degree day in a calendar year.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Not good! What does 'derrumbes' mean? I hope Maria's tail leaves you alone soon too.


Derrumbes mean mudslides.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15363
Quoting pottery:

Good point.
Also, keep in mind that the British dont tend to build on Beaches, and their buildings are generally properly built to withstand winds.
Bermuda is a good example as well.

Recent American construction is rather Flimsy by comparison.

It's the destruction that makes the News.



You are exactly right, buildings around here are built very poor. Even a category 2 would tear apart the Tampa Bay area. And the northern U.S. takes damage even worse from wind than us...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, that one probably is a little off, too.


Houston's bout right
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Heat index map by analysis of official obs:

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Quoting RitaEvac:
OOOOOOOOOOOOOGGGGGAAAAAAA


Bryan Parkway, Dallas, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
107 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 106 °F
Wind: 2.5 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 5.4 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 248 °F

False Alarm
Yeah, that one probably is a little off, too.
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Summa, Summa, Summatime........ Summatime...

Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
100.1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 39%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 109 °F
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Quoting kshipre1:
not to sound like I am not concerned or taking it seriously, but these models are not even credible. no system has even formed.

take Irene for example. models had tampa bay constantly too early on then suddenly tracks shifted eastward.

good to keep an eye on this of course but historically, storms or hurricanes normally hit north or south of tampa bay


Models 300 hours out are unreliable. But they can be fairly accurate in predicting favorable conditions for tropical development.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Southwood Valley, College Station, Texas (PWS)
Clear
101.6 °F
Clear
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 2.3 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 10.8 mph
Pressure: -
Heat Index: 121 °F
Wow, a PWS with a dewpoint 20 degrees F off...like usual.

No way is it really 79 F for a dewpoint in central TX.

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OOOOOOOOOOOOOGGGGGAAAAAAA


Bryan Parkway, Dallas, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
107 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 99%
Dew Point: 106 °F
Wind: 2.5 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 5.4 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 248 °F

False Alarm
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So far around 10 inches have falled in parts of PR. Here are some photos of the Marias tail event. Hopefully,Maria starts to move and the tail breaks.

Link


Not good! What does 'derrumbes' mean? I hope Maria's tail leaves you alone soon too.
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Southwood Valley, College Station, Texas (PWS)
Clear
101.6 °F
Clear
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 2.3 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 10.8 mph
Pressure: -
Heat Index: 121 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Gee, why not send him to EVERY tourist trap?? LOL.

\

Haha, yeah I know, Cafe Du Monde is a tourist trap , but I like Beignets and they suck anywhere else. And K-Paul's is good, thought better if someone else is paying ($$$)!

What I really miss is the French Bread. They can't even get it right in Baton Rouge, where I grew up, only an hour away.

Back to lurking then, taking notes on other good places there, and enjoying the on-topic discussions too.
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not to sound like I am not concerned or taking it seriously, but these models are not even credible. no system has even formed.

take Irene for example. models had tampa bay constantly too early on then suddenly tracks shifted eastward.

good to keep an eye on this of course but historically, storms or hurricanes normally hit north or south of tampa bay
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hope the flooding in Peurto Rico isn't too bad.


So far around 10 inches have falled in parts of PR. Here are some photos of the Marias tail event. Hopefully,Maria starts to move and the tail breaks.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15363
Click Image for Loop


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Quoting Patrap:
Imagery

The ESL's unique location and capabilities allows it to observe the earth in a variety of ways with surveillance of the Gulf of Mexico being our primary activity. We are equipped for numerous atmospheric views, investigation of ocean applications, and we produce True Color images from a few spacecraft.






Guys po-boy on Magazine,just past Jefferson. Large roast beef Po-boy,dressed,cold barq's root beer.

Or my Bar b Q Shrimp, which has no Barbecue sauce, buts lotsa butta'

Im 200 feet from Guys.


Need to get your cholesterol tested Pat
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Hope the flooding in Peurto Rico isn't too bad.
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Marie still there, still blah. Moved a tick east between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. for the first time.

More interesting are the long term GFS runs. The 06Z GFS run shows a major hurricane making landfall near Tampa at 300 hours.

The 12Z run shows the same storm as a Cat 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm making landfall at the same location in 336 hours.


Long way out. Lots could change. But the first time two consecutive runs showed this.

Anything else to talk about?
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Imagery

The ESL's unique location and capabilities allows it to observe the earth in a variety of ways with surveillance of the Gulf of Mexico being our primary activity. We are equipped for numerous atmospheric views, investigation of ocean applications, and we produce True Color images from a few spacecraft.



Quoting MTWX:

I forget who originally asked the question, but I'm sure he/she would like input on things to do in NOLA from someone who lives there. You or Patrap have any ideas??



Guys po-boy on Magazine,just past Jefferson. Large roast beef Po-boy,dressed,cold barq's root beer.

Or my Bar b Q Shrimp, which has no Barbecue sauce, buts lotsa butta'

Im 200 feet from Guys.
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214. MTWX
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Gee, why not send him to EVERY tourist trap?? LOL.


I forget who originally asked the question, but I'm sure he/she would like input on things to do in NOLA from someone who lives there. You or Patrap have any ideas??
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Quoting Levi32:


"Hybrid" is just another word used to describe subtropical storms, since they are a hybrid of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

thank you
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Post 209, Patrap.
Maria is stuck.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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