Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

Share this Blog
20
+

There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 762 - 712

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

762. jpsb
2:11 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
The CC debate is evolving, and politics, big business and religion are stepping in IMO. On this blog opinions are about 60/40 proCC. Unfortunately a few CC proponents are overzealous, and seem to harp on the subject alienating those on the fence.

Yes astronomy is a much better field. As is particle physics.

In the iconic movie "The Graduate" he tells the graduate one word about his future........ "plastics". I say to Astronomers and Physicists........ "Gravity".
I can believe we are having a resonable dicussion! hope I don't ruin that. I am inclined not to believe in AGW, however I am not certain in that believe, as I think more research needs to be done to explain the lack of predicted warming over the last ten years or so. I do not think I am being unreasonable, but the quite a few AGW believers think I am an idiotic heretic, lol. According to them it is settled science. Well I am not a scientist (just a math guy) but doesn't a theory have to be provable? And isn't not one of the proofs predicting accurately future events pertanate to the theory?
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
761. miguel617
1:56 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
New Blog.
Member Since: January 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
760. jpsb
1:53 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting BLee2333:


Then you should know the second half

Hey, in your opinion, do you think that supernova will reach a level bright enough to be seen with the naked eye?
The Earth could soon have a second sun, at least for a week or two.

The cosmic phenomenon will happen when one of the brightest stars in the night sky explodes into a supernova.

And, according to a report yesterday, the most stunning light show in the planet’s history could happen as soon as this year.



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-134 9383/Betelgeuse-second-sun-Earth-supernova-turns-n ight-day.html#ixzz1Xw1TmUrK
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
759. Patrap
1:51 PM GMT on September 14, 2011




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
758. WxLogic
1:51 PM GMT on September 14, 2011


As expected, P26L was absorbed by Maria.

P27L should be one of the key ingredients for a possible TC development in the W/NW Carib. by next week.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
757. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:44 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting twincomanche:
TN will welcome you. Good choice. That's part of real America.



ummmmmmm,I don't want to sound.geez Im not sure of the right word there.I live in Soo Cal,is that part of "real america"? Let me know where I need to be in the USA to be in "real america", as I don't want to be in the wrong area.I want to be "really" American.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
756. Patrap
1:43 PM GMT on September 14, 2011


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
755. RitaEvac
1:42 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting jpsb:
You got 2 inches lucky you! Here in San Leon we got maybe 1/2 inch :( not looking good for any rain any time soon here.


Only 0.14" near FM 646 and I-45
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
754. Patrap
1:42 PM GMT on September 14, 2011

ESL by LSU GOES-13 Atlantic view

click image for loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
753. jpsb
1:40 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting LillyMyrrh:


It's the same way here in the Golden Triangle of SETX. I loved that slow soaker of a rain we got from TS Lee. But it was less than 2" here, so it helped a little, but only a very little, and for only a few days. A real rainstorm with the lighting that goes along with it could spell disaster.
You got 2 inches lucky you! Here in San Leon we got maybe 1/2 inch :( not looking good for any rain any time soon here.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
752. klew136
1:39 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
An article in our local Keys paper, full article can be found at www.keysnews.com

KEY LARGO — A combination of atmospheric conditions have helped steer tropical storm activity away from
the Florida Keys so far this
year, but weather experts caution against being too confident until after October.
Rizzo warns Floridians not
to become complacent in
early autumn since cyclonic
storms tend to form suddenly in a “Genesis region” near
Venezuela. These storms tend
to travel north in October,
rather than northwesterly as
they do in summer.
“On TV you see storms that
form off Africa and watch their
progress for 10 or 12 days and
have plenty of time to prepare.
In October, you may have 36 to
48 hours [of warning with the
Southern Caribbean storms],”
he said. “They go northerly,
not westerly, and then the fall
cold fronts [that sweep from
the northwest] tend to push
them toward Florida.”
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
751. WxLogic
1:36 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Good Morning
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
750. stoormfury
1:32 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
97L could be in the making southeast of the cape verde islands. the area is showing signs of organisation with good cyclonic turning.IIN 22W
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
749. Squid28
1:32 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
Seein' as how the blog needs a wake-me-up this morning...

* * * TEXAS * * * KingsRanch to be precise. Are we awake yet? ;-)


That looks like Baton Rouge to me, what are we looking at anyways?
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
747. kshipre1
1:29 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
lol...this blog has become super slow

if there were upcoming storms or especially current storms with a possible threat to land, there would have been at least 4,000 posts by now!! :)
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
746. aspectre
1:28 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Seein' as how the blog needs a wake-me-up this morning...

* * * TEXAS * * * KingsRanch to be precise. Are we awake yet? ;-)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
745. Squid28
1:24 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Amazing how slow the blog has become over the last couple days...


I do not think this got a lot of press, but UTMB in Galveston has been conducting a study since Ike paid a visit to town about the effects on adolescents of evacuating vs. not evacuating for a storm. I have included a couple of links, I will let everyone decide for themselves what they think but I did find it interesting. The first link is to a Youtube video about it the second is from as local station KUHF

UTMB Youtube

KUHF article

Man I actually was able to just work in a mental health point into a weather blog. This actually might make a good point for Dr. M to consider for a future blog of his....
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
744. kshipre1
1:18 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
you said it perfectly. exactly correct

just because the oceans are dormant right now, do not expect that to continue especially with a La Nina in play

some yellow, orange and red circles should be appearing soon on the NHC website!! :)
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
742. bigwes6844
1:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
trust me the season aint over by a long shot!!! who has the chart to remind these people!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2473
741. hydrus
12:58 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Maria getting some convection over LLC
She would have been a formidable storm if the shear was not so fast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19598
740. capeflorida
12:52 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
"is maria behind schedule"

"about 8 days"

I would start thinking about a pregnancy kit If I were her!
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
738. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2011



Maria getting some convection over LLC
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
737. hydrus
12:37 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19598
736. superpete
12:36 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting thisishsyterical:
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms
The 'Season' as you put it hasn't even started yet in the NW / SW Caribbean
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
735. hydrus
12:36 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Still waves over there..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19598
734. Skyepony (Mod)
12:32 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Sudan: Heavy Rains in N. Bahr El Ghazal Displace Thousands Amid High Food Prices
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36154
733. leelee75k
12:31 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
on water vapor imagery of the Atlantic, you can see Maria getting squeezed.

and lol at the 8 days late comment, she certainly didn't follow the plan, taking her sweet time to move on out of the caribbean.
Member Since: September 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 557
732. stoormfury
12:27 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
The only sign of tropical activity ,apart from Maria is a 1010 mb low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N 20W.None of the global models have latched on this slowly organising area of disturbed weather.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
731. kshipre1
12:15 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
even if a big storm does form there, regardless of if there is low to moderate shear and warm water temps, there would be plenty of dry air for any system to contend with.

been a large high pressure past few days pumping in drier air. atmosphere needs to moisten a bit.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
730. EasyRiderX
12:11 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting thisishsyterical:
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms


I thought people were saying a big storm was going to form in the Caribbean?
Member Since: September 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
729. EasyRiderX
12:10 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
If the NHC says Maria was repositioned west then why do they have her movement NNW? Maria is 60mph. I think she becomes a hurricane. This looks bad for Canada.
Member Since: September 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
728. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:56 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011

...MARIA REPOSITIONED TO THE WEST...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 69.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
727. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:31 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Wow, not even 200 posts since I left last night, lol.

I knew Maria would be a little stronger this morning, and should be stronger still as we go to bed last night, since shear has let up. There is still a chance for hurricane status, especially over the next 24 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30280
726. aislinnpaps
11:16 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
I'm off. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
725. PensacolaDoug
11:11 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Bielle:


I lived in an apartment tower in Toronto at one time. One of the residents made a garden in his 25th floor apartment by putting down plastic sheeting, and then spreading dirt everywhere. He was growing vegetables. The plastic sprung a leak, which is how the indoor garden was found.



What was he growing? I'm guessing not tomatoes.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
724. PensacolaDoug
11:08 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting kipperedherring:
I believe alot of this can be attributed to PensacolaDoug. I'm just sayin'...



I'll bake ya a cake!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
723. aislinnpaps
10:52 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting thisishsyterical:
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms


I typed a reply and then deleted it. Thinks about my stash, come mid November I think we'll have a party here with it.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
721. aislinnpaps
10:44 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

A beautiful sunny morning in Puerto Rico contrasts with what occured yesterday when the tail of Maria was causing the massive floodings. The rivers are slowly going down and all is returning to normal.


Good to hear. It really looked like you guys were being pounded with rain from Maria.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
720. Tropicsweatherpr
10:43 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Good morning.

A beautiful sunny morning in Puerto Rico contrasts with what occured yesterday when the tail of Maria was causing the massive floodings. The rivers are slowly going down and all is returning to normal.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
719. aislinnpaps
10:42 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Good morning, all. Another super hot day to be had here.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
718. islander101010
10:39 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Astrophysics:


Wow I didn't realize we were heading back to a La Nina. I definitely want to see more thunderstorms, I miss the ones in Florida we get almost every summer arvo. I'll be heading back home most likely in December but that's winter time so I won't see the summer thunderstorms ): If you are in tomorrow then definitely we should get some lunch. Very interested to hear how your ski trip in New Zealand went. Yeah 970mb isn't really that low for typical winter storms the UK experiences but that pressure is common for a moderately strong cat 1 hurricane.
back to fl. in dec thankfully in time to see the allman brothers at wanne april 13
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
716. Astrophysics
10:27 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Quadrantid:


Will have to tell you all about New Zealand next time we grab lunch -- I might actually make it into the office tomorrow, rather than being stuck here working ;)

We're looking like heading back to La Nina, so I reckon it'll be another stormy season for Queensland. Hoping we get more exciting thunderstorms this year -- apparently last year was relatively restrained from that point of view :)

Interestingly, just spoke to my folks on Skye in the UK, and they said the tail end of Katia was really overblown and a total non-event. It was no more windy than a normal storm there (which makes sense, since it was only 970ish), though it was a bit worse in central/southern Scotland


Wow I didn't realize we were heading back to a La Nina. I definitely want to see more thunderstorms, I miss the ones in Florida we get almost every summer arvo. I'll be heading back home most likely in December but that's winter time so I won't see the summer thunderstorms ): If you are in tomorrow then definitely we should get some lunch. Very interested to hear how your ski trip in New Zealand went. Yeah 970mb isn't really that low for typical winter storms the UK experiences but that pressure is common for a moderately strong cat 1 hurricane.
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
715. islander101010
10:27 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
is maria behind schedule?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
714. aspectre
10:22 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
709 FrankZapper "In the iconic movie The Graduate he tells the graduate one word about his future........ 'plastics'. I say to Astronomers and Physicists........ 'Gravity'."

Especially if the Higgs fails to show up at the LargeHadronCollider and/or gravity waves fail to show up at LIGO/etc under circumstances in which "it definitely should have" (eg Betelgeuse going supernova).
If either or both were to occur, it'd once again become time for a new "Newton/Einstein" to remake the Universe in his/her own image.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
713. Quadrantid
10:12 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Astrophysics:


Yeah I agree the Blue Mountains are really nice. To bad to hear it rained both times you went up ):. I just recently went up to the Blue Mountains with a group of people from UNSW to do some longboard skateboarding on some of the empty roads which was heaps fun plus we had good weather. I also like the road trip to Siding Spring and the area itself is quite nice. I just like getting out of Sydney period. Hopefully we will have nice warm weather this summer, so I can enjoying the beach for surfing. I wonder if this year will be an active stormy season for NSW and if Queensland will yet again be hit by more tropical cyclones eh?


Will have to tell you all about New Zealand next time we grab lunch -- I might actually make it into the office tomorrow, rather than being stuck here working ;)

We're looking like heading back to La Nina, so I reckon it'll be another stormy season for Queensland. Hoping we get more exciting thunderstorms this year -- apparently last year was relatively restrained from that point of view :)

Interestingly, just spoke to my folks on Skye in the UK, and they said the tail end of Katia was really overblown and a total non-event. It was no more windy than a normal storm there (which makes sense, since it was only 970ish), though it was a bit worse in central/southern Scotland
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
712. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:55 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
18:50 PM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (996 hPa) located at 25.0N 136.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 27.0N 131.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 27.4N 129.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 27.5N 128.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701

Viewing: 762 - 712

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.