Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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433. whepton3
10:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do I have to talk in baby language?.Okay..big big bright round ball go down earlier than 2010.it go down at 6:30 instead of 8:00 P.M.


If that's the case, tropical cyclones are the least of our worries.

sunrise/sunset doesn't vary 90 minutes from year to year.

Big bright round ball is highly predictable, as is the orbit of the small blue ball around it, as well as the way the little blue ball spins.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
432. SouthALWX
10:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
You may not be aware, but this is a blog open to the public. We can respond, and will respond, to what appears to be an obvious nonfact. I have a feeling you knew very well what you were doing. I wouldn't label you an outright troll yet, but you were certainly misleading people for your amusement.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
430. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:58 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.Now I ended up in Antartica.Very cold.I can see penguins from my house.


I thought you lived in Washington D.C.? That's what you said a day or two ago.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
428. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
THIS.Is exsacally what I said a few months ago on the blog.So since Levi said it doesn't make since several other bloggers have to jump down my friggin throat?.Followrs this was a conversation between two people.Why are others involved?


Nobody is jumping down your throat, do not blow it out of proportion. Everybody is merely telling you that if you are at the same latitude, the sunset times will not be nearly that significant.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
427. Bielle
10:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do I have to talk in baby language?.Okay..big big bright round ball go down earlier than 2010.it go down at 6:30 instead of 8:00 P.M.


The sun will set at 7.22 p.m. today, September 12, 2011 in Washington D.C. just as it set at 7:22 p.m. last year on this date. (My link didn`t work, and I couldn`t fix it. Sorry.)
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
425. druseljic
10:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
You gotta love this site. Been lurking most of the day. I was looking for the sunset time in my area and thought the easiest way was to do a google search. That search brought me right back to WU.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
424. SouthALWX
10:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
you moved latitude ... ...

*facepalm*

That would explain it lol.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
423. Levi32
10:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting Chucktown:


I'm actually leaning more towards a homegrown system developing just off our coast early next week. Yesterday's CHS NWS disco mentioned that next weeks high pressure is going to be somewhere along the lines of 2 whole standard deviations above normal. That strong NE fetch may try to "spin" something up somewhere off the SE US coast. Very unusual this early.


That's already being hinted at by the GFS. I've been eyeing that possibility as well. It will be interesting to see whether both regions will become active or whether only one will be able to.

Day 7:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
422. weatherguy03
10:54 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Not saying the season is over, but don't be surprised if we don't go gangbusters for the rest of this month. We still have October to deal with.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
421. ncstorm
10:53 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting Chucktown:


I'm actually leaning more towards a homegrown system developing just off our coast early next week. Yesterday's CHS NWS disco mentioned that next weeks high pressure is going to be somewhere along the lines of 2 whole standard deviations above normal. That strong NE fetch may try to "spin" something up somewhere off the SE US coast. Very unusual this early.


I have been posting the runs since this weekend..the Euro is beginning to pick up on development as well..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
419. washingtonian115
10:53 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting SouthALWX:
389 ...
Unless the poster changed latitude ... lol


HOWEVER,
If you are experiencing a weather pattern that is different .. cloudiness for example, the sky will appear to darken faster and may be what you are experiencing.
Oh yes I did.It's cold up here it's in -30 degree temps....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17838
418. PcolaDan
10:53 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
One person was killed on Monday afternoon as parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland were battered by the remnants of Hurricane Katia. Damage and flooding was also reported.
Katia emerged in the far eastern Atlantic on August 29 and made its way north of the Caribbean before turning towards the north, staying well off the East Coast of the United States. It then rapidly crossed the Atlantic for a second time during the weekend as it lost tropical characteristics but remained near hurricane-strength as it approached Europe.
Forecasters in Ireland and the United Kingdom had issued weather warnings for large parts of the region as post-tropical cyclone Katia passed close to the north of Scotland, causing strong winds and heavy rainfall throughout Monday.
In Ireland, the strongest gust recorded was 122.5 km/h at Malin Head in County Donegal. Elsewhere, Belmullet in County Mayo recorded a 112 km/h gust.
“In the UK, the maximum sustained winds we saw was about 60 miles (96 kilometers) per hour at Capel Curig in north Wales,” said Met Office forecaster Dan Gray. The strongest gust was at Cairngorm in Scotland and that was 144.5 kilometers per hour.
Gray said the most severe weather affected the region between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. local time on Monday, but stormy weather is forecast to continue into Tuesday. “The windiest weather will last until about midnight our time tonight,” he added.
In northeast England, a driver was killed at around 3 p.m. local time when a tree fell on a minibus between Staindrop and Barnard Castle, near Dunhouse Quarry, in County Durham. A passenger in the vehicle was injured.
Elsewhere in County Durham, in the village of Langley Moor, fifteen cars sustained serious damage when strong winds collapsed a roof at a business premises. There were no reports of injuries.
“There have been a number of trees brought down, houses without power, we’ve seen very large waves, and a tidal surge on the west-northwest England and west Wales coastlines, which is producing some localized flooding in those areas,” Gray said.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
417. SouthALWX
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
409. That is impossible. It may appear to be different due to differing twilight weather from this year to last. I think you must be remembering incorrectly to some degree.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
416. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011


Goodnight Maria...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
415. PlazaRed
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Last year at this time the sun started to go down at around 8:00.This year it's starting to get darker with the sun trying to go down at 6:30.

You must have moved your position on the planet and not moved the hands on your clock!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2190
414. weatherguy03
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


FWIW, Bret, Cindy, and Don all developed in a downward MJO phase.


Like I said..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
413. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do I have to talk in baby language?.Okay..big big bright round ball go down earlier than 2010.it go down at 6:30 instead of 8:00 P.M.


That be wrong-wrong, kk?

If big big bright round ball go down early early than 2010, then Earth Earth has some big big problems.

;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
412. Chucktown
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the deal with the Caribbean. It's still 10 days or so away if it's going to happen. I've been working on the idea that tropical development will occur there between September 15th and 25th (now more realistically 20th to 25th). When we're in a long-range situation like this, that's just about as far as we should go in terms of maturity of the cyclone. Let's say yay or nay on development first, and then if it becomes clear later that we will get it, then we can talk about how intense of a cyclone it will be and all of that. Some folks here are too eager to know exactly what's going to happen 15 days from now, and that's just not possible. However, you would be surprised how much we can know 15 days in advance about the general things, such as, whether tropical development has a half-decent chance of occurring.


I'm actually leaning more towards a homegrown system developing just off our coast early next week. Yesterday's CHS NWS disco mentioned that next weeks high pressure is going to be somewhere along the lines of 2 whole standard deviations above normal. That strong NE fetch may try to "spin" something up somewhere off the SE US coast. Very unusual this early.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1785
411. Bielle
10:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think my winter here will be cold.I mean the days are shorter than they were last year.Some of the trees are turning colors.And the cold out breaks have been coming early this year.


You posted this bizarre statement last night, too. If there is any change in the length of the day, year over year, it is measured in microseconds. There certainly is no 90-minute change.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
410. Levi32
10:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03:
This season when the MJO has not been favorable, tropical development has been hard to come by. I believe we may be below normal as far as tropical development goes for the rest of September.


I wouldn't be surprised. When you stack up the ACE, this season really hasn't been phenomenal thus far. It's not as active as it appears to be.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
408. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03:


I am not counting all of those little junk storms that the NHC named this season. Yes, I know they are officially part of the numbers. ACE is down this season.


I am not either -- Many of our storms, such as Arlene, or Harvey, have developed in the downward motion of the MJO.

ACE is now approaching 70, which is above average up to this date.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
407. ncstorm
10:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting fact: Over half of our storms this season have come from the downward motion of the MJO.


off of frontal boundaries..those were exceptions to the rule..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
406. MNhockeymama
10:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Question for you, Levi - how does LaNina affect the upper midwest? We had so much snow last year with some severely cold days (though it seemed like not quite as many as other years) - are we looking at the same type of situation this year? Does that also possibly affect how quickly it warms again in the spring - so we could also see flooding again?
Member Since: September 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
405. weatherguy03
10:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting fact: Over half of our storms this season have come from the downward motion of the MJO.


I am not counting all of those little junk storms that the NHC named this season. Yes, I know they are officially part of the numbers. ACE is down this season.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
404. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Do you realize what you just said lol. For what you said to be true, the Earth's angular momentum would have to have significantly changed.

Sunset at Washington D.C. on September 12th last year was 7:21pm. Tonight, it's 7:22pm.


See, that makes a lot more sense, lol. If there was that much of a difference in sunset times, I'd be a little worried, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
403. JLPR2
10:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
According to radar estimates, 8 inches have fallen in the last few hours in Ceiba, PR.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
402. CybrTeddy
10:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03:
This season when the MJO has not been favorable, tropical development has been hard to come by. I believe we may be below normal as far as tropical development goes for the rest of September.


FWIW, Bret, Cindy, and Don all developed in a downward MJO phase.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
401. SouthALWX
10:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
389 ...
Unless the poster changed latitude ... lol


HOWEVER,
If you are experiencing a weather pattern that is different .. cloudiness for example, the sky will appear to darken faster and may be what you are experiencing.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
But that being said I find the MJO forecasts very inaccurate.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
Quoting weatherguy03:
This season when the MJO has not been favorable, tropical development has been hard to come by. I believe we may be below normal as far as tropical development goes for the rest of September.


Interesting fact: Over half of our storms this season have come from the downward motion of the MJO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting washingtonian115:
Last year at this time the sun started to go down at around 8:00.This year it's starting to get darker with the sun trying to go down at 6:30.


Do you realize what you just said lol. For what you said to be true, the Earth's angular momentum would have to have significantly changed.

Sunset at Washington D.C. on September 12th last year was 7:21pm. Tonight, it's 7:22pm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the deal with the Caribbean. It's still 10 days or so away if it's going to happen. I've been working on the idea that tropical development will occur there between September 15th and 25th (now more realistically 20th to 25th). When we're in a long-range situation like this, that's just about as far as we should go in terms of maturity of the cyclone. Let's say yay or nay on development first, and then if it becomes clear later that we will get it, then we can talk about how intense of a cyclone it will be and all of that. Some folks here are too eager to know exactly what's going to happen 15 days from now, and that's just not possible. However, you would be surprised how much we can know 15 days in advance about the general things, such as, whether tropical development has a half-decent chance of occurring.


Just watched your latest tropical tidbit. Good info. Thanks!
Member Since: September 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
This season when the MJO has not been favorable, tropical development has been hard to come by. I believe we may be below normal as far as tropical development goes for the rest of September.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone who tracks the tropics is aware that a strong high pressure system over New England can have an affect on the pressures in the Caribbean. All the models are calling for an extremely strong high pressure there.




That would be an Isabel like setup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


What? Lol.


Earth's rotation is speeding up,

Is that why I feel heavier than normal?

I can tell my doctors why..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
DGEX..


18Z NOGAPS..


and the Euro and CMC..more model support than the caribbean system..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the deal with the Caribbean. It's still 10 days or so away if it's going to happen. I've been working on the idea that tropical development will occur there between September 15th and 25th (now more realistically 20th to 25th). When we're in a long-range situation like this, that's just about as far as we should go in terms of maturity of the cyclone. Let's say yay or nay on development first, and then if it becomes clear we will get it, then we can talk about how intense of a cyclone it will be and all of that. Some folks here are too eager to know exactly what's going to happen 15 days from now, and that's just not possible. However, you would be surprised how much we can know 15 days in advance about the general things, such as, whether tropical development has a half-decent chance of occurring.


TropicalAnalystwx14 votes yay, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting washingtonian115:
Last year at this time the sun started to go down at around 8:00.This year it's starting to get darker with the sun trying to go down at 6:30.


That makes no sense, lol. The sun does the same thing every season, every year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting Grothar:
Maria is looking good.


Interesting to note that Maria is still drawing breath!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2190
Here's the deal with the Caribbean. It's still 10 days or so away if it's going to happen. I've been working on the idea that tropical development will occur there between September 15th and 25th (now more realistically 20th to 25th). When we're in a long-range situation like this, that's just about as far as we should go in terms of maturity of the cyclone. Let's say yay or nay on development first, and then if it becomes clear later that we will get it, then we can talk about how intense of a cyclone it will be and all of that. Some folks here are too eager to know exactly what's going to happen 15 days from now, and that's just not possible. However, you would be surprised how much we can know 15 days in advance about the general things, such as, whether tropical development has a half-decent chance of occurring.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Here's the 12 Z Euro at 240 hr.

Link

And here's MJO forecast for the rest of the month, this week is showing some upward motion, but beginning next week, not a favorable MJO setup for the Caribbean.

Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1785
Quoting Levi32:


What? Lol.
Last year at this time the sun started to go down at around 8:00.This year it's starting to get darker with the sun trying to go down at 6:30.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17838
With the La Nina intensifying, I'd expect the MJO to hang around the above normal temp atlantic more than the GFS is advertising. I don't buy that forecast yet.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting Levi32:


The GFS had turned a cold shoulder to upward motion in the Atlantic, actually. In my mind this is the only inhibiting factor on development in the Caribbean given this overall pattern.



Still won't there be Upward Motion in the Caribbean because of the high pressure to the north, which forces upward motion in that area?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862

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