Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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533. JLPR2
It sort of looks like Maria developed a Mid-level circulation in her convection.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Grothar:



You have to save the properties to a host site like this one upload it then post it.

Link
Copy.
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Quoting Grothar:


Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.



I mean areas.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Maria just ain't in a hurry to go anywhere ATM.
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Quoting txjac:


I know nothing however I can say I hope that Maria doesnt impact Bermuda. You guys are out there like in the middle of no where all by yourselves
Dont worry about us. No wooden framed houses here.
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Quoting Grothar:
Big cold front.



Grother, I know you don't really know me and have probably only seen a few of my posts over several years. I just wanted to say that I am glad to see you back and I assume that you are feeling better. Good to see you again on a regular basis. Tom
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527. txjac
Quoting Grothar:


Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.


Wow, thats amazing ...very strange weather this year.
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Quoting twincomanche:
I'm jealous. I can't get it to do that however I am just a lowly peasant on here. Sigh.



You have to save the properties to a host site like this one upload it then post it.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
525. txjac
Quoting BDADUDE:
Dudettes feel free to respond.


I know nothing however I can say I hope that Maria doesnt impact Bermuda. You guys are out there like in the middle of no where all by yourselves
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Quoting kipperedherring:
Exactly! I believe BDADUDE and Caicosretiredsailor are actually one in the same!
That cut me to the bone dude.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

3 years ago.


I do remember that... It was a pretty rough night. I was in a coffee shop with a friend of mine, she was from Baytown and was freaking out about Ike. The following afternoon Ike had come ashore and it was raining up where we were, so we got lunch while trying not to get knocked over by the winds which were 20-30mph +40 gusts.

One strange thing I remember from that storm was watching the Transtar traffic cameras go out, one by one by one from south to north.
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Quoting twincomanche:
And when's this supposed to happen?



Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting txjac:


What about the dudetettes?
Exactly! I believe BDADUDE and Caicosretiredsailor are actually one in the same!
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Quoting txjac:


What about the dudetettes?


Cut their last record for Motown and retired.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting txjac:


What about the dudetettes?
Dudettes feel free to respond.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I'm jealous. I can't get it to do that however I am just a lowly peasant on here. Sigh.
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516. txjac
Quoting BDADUDE:
So do you dudes think that Maria will bring any nasty weather here to Bermuda??


What about the dudetettes?
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So do you dudes think that Maria will bring any nasty weather here to Bermuda??
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514. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
And when's this supposed to happen?



I think I saw Saturday posted earlier today
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Quoting JLPR2:


So cute! LOL!

The blog seemed tired, had to do something! XD
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Quoting Grothar:
Big cold front.

And when's this supposed to happen?

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511. txjac
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm in orange. Me no likey.


I'm in orange too ...me likey!
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Quoting Bielle:


You are definitely on form tonight, sir.


Sad thing is, it doesn't last long.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
I think the ACE total seems so low because we've already had so many stgrms. I wonder what the average ACE per storm is... 70/13? doesn't seem like much...
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508. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dean and Felix don't compare to Marco.


So cute! LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting JLPR2:
So we're almost at 70 in terms of ACE, but have only seen 2 hurricanes.

But here is a little interesting fact: 2007 featured two category 5 hurricanes (Dean and Felix) with a total of 15/6/2 and its ACE only reached 72.21.

I would say we are above normal at the moment.

Dean and Felix don't compare to Marco.
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Big cold front.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting twincomanche:
I posted this earlier but find it interesting.


I'm in orange. Me no likey.
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I posted this earlier but find it interesting.

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502. JLPR2
So we're almost at 70 in terms of ACE, but have only seen 2 hurricanes.

But here is a little interesting fact: 2007 featured two category 5 hurricanes (Dean and Felix) with a total of 15/6/2 and its ACE only reached 72.21.

I would say we are above normal at the moment.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Grothar:


I don't think they want you to, just in case they might be wrong.


You are definitely on form tonight, sir.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Are we not allowed to post images from the Weather Channel? Tried it twice and it didn't post.


I don't think they want you to, just in case they might be wrong.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I stayed up until 2AM for that storm, made me tired, lol.

Irene and Ike....two "I" storms, a male name and a female name....they all hate you. lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

3 years ago.


I stayed up until 2AM for that storm, made me tired, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
Quoting Grothar:


I found that episode very pulsating.
You're a cool dude Grothar.
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3 years ago.
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AL, 14, 2011091300, , BEST, 0, 212N, 674W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 175, 175, 0, 60, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
Quoting washingtonian115:
Last year at this time the sun started to go down at around 8:00.This year it's starting to get darker with the sun trying to go down at 6:30.


It's just a bunch of conspiracy theory hocus-pocus...most of these bizarre theories surround the Comet Elenin fantasy, the Planet X/Nibiru fantasy, et. al. It's just that...a fantasy that does its best to disregard science, while using pseudo-science to twist the truth.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
The Jellyfish Chronicles. Spongebob.


I found that episode very pulsating.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074

Shear hasn't let up yet?
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Are we not allowed to post images from the Weather Channel? Tried it twice and it didn't post.
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Quoting Grothar:


Try reading, "The Sun Also Rises" by Hemingway.


Ha!
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Maria...move already.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


"War and Peace" Leo Tolstoy
The Jellyfish Chronicles. Spongebob.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It'll give more rain to Mexico than what Nate ever could produce.
Looks that way right now.
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Quoting twincomanche:
From Plymouth State Tropical weather page.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM 19N89W TO 13N84W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF
82W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
From Plymouth State Tropical weather page.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM 19N89W TO 13N84W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF
82W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


It'll give more rain to Mexico than what Nate ever could produce.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
From Plymouth State Tropical weather page.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM 19N89W TO 13N84W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ISLAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF
82W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND GUATEMALA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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