Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting txjac:
t

Why the trade in? Thought that you were happy with your new purchase?



it was being vary buging when i un hock the power cord and i did not even like the key board that came with it this one has a nic big one and i can type with out missing up
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631. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
I think she makes up and heads North.


That would be a nice change, even it came up more north and even in to SW Texas

Not versed enough in troughs and such to even think about what could make it travel north
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba


Good. The acers are junk.
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629. JLPR2
Maria looks like a strong TS or even a minimal cat1 in infrared imagery, but we all know the truth. XD
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627. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:
and vary happy with it
t

Why the trade in? Thought that you were happy with your new purchase?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
*Hoping Maria is a Category 5 in the morning, headed between Bermuda and the USA, and then out to sea.*



can we make it a cat 6
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and vary happy with it
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*Hoping Maria is a Category 5 in the morning, headed between Bermuda and the USA, and then out to sea.*
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hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba


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Quoting PcolaDan:
And my last musical reference as I head to bed.
Tonight is the Harvest Moon.

With this, I bid you adieu.



I had the biggest crush on her when I was a kid.
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620. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
Keep a eye on that feature as soon as it gets over water into the Bay of Campeche.


I was wondering about that area myself ...hopefully it doesnt just sit there for days, spinning around and then goes in to Mexico
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And my last musical reference as I head to bed.
Tonight is the Harvest Moon.

With this, I bid you adieu.

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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Look at the pathetic ol'95E. don't got but ONE big thunderstorm. LOL


lol..I'm guessing its in the bottom right corner?

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There is still a couple of interesting areas of convection over Africa. Don't think Cape Verde season is over yet.
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Quoting twincomanche:
There is no such thing as extra garlic. LOL.

True.
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Look at the pathetic ol'95E. don't got but ONE big thunderstorm. LOL
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, I just realized it was getting bad over there, before 2pm they were dry. That's one persistent band of thunderstorms in the area.


Looking at the images, they are going to be around awhile. Looks like the DR is getting a little pounding, too.
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Nothing obvious after Maria, wonder if we will have the first period without any tropical systems after Maria leaves? Levi seems to think something is going to pop up in the Caribbean.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Talk about not going anywhere fast. I think she's going to be with us until the end of the season. (grin)


She making progress, lol...Last night, she was a whole two degrees farther east. XD
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Vampire storm? I thought that was just mythology.
Good for me though.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone! Maria just wants to hang out. If she does not starting moving the trough door might close very fast. I don't think that will happen but, its just bad to see a system in that location just hanging out!


Tornicane? Or Hurrnado?

Edit: LOL...Without clicking on the image, your avatar looks like it is flashing back and forth between a hurricane and tornado.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You are tempting me so much tonight. Golden Years, etc.


Figured you were lurking somewhere. We threw enough lines out there for you.
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The I Predict Series..........

I predict such a cold and bitter winter that in future years they will say "that was the start of the modern ice age". The cause will be found to be a fundamental drop in fusion in the Sun's interior.

Stay tuned for more exciting weather predictions from I PREDICT. (A Todd Ramsey/Frank Zapper production)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maria loves night time, hates day time.

Vampire storm? I thought that was just mythology.
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Evening everyone! Maria just wants to hang out. If she does not starting moving the trough door might close very fast. I don't think that will happen but, its just bad to see a system in that location just hanging out!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maria loves night time, hates day time.

Shes week, Dmin and Dmax still affect her.
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Maria loves night time, hates day time.

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599. txjac
Quoting defdogz:


He's a Dogo Argentino, ~105 pounds. He's from working hog dog stock but will never hunt because he's deaf. He is a wonderful dog - sweet-natured, even-tempered, smart, willing to please. I am grateful his breeder placed him with me instead of killing him, as most Dogo breeders do when they have deaf pups.



Aww ...so glad you got him! He's a lucky dog. All of my animals are rescues and couldnt imagine my life without them
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Quoting twincomanche:
And the AARP that thinks we are old. In the words of the saintly Rush Limbaugh we are just seasoned citizens.


In my case, it's all that extra garlic I eat. :|
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Quoting txjac:


Mine is about 73 pounds and sleeps on me everynight. What kind of dog is that ...looks like a sweety.
Just fed mine some leftover prime rib from this weekend ...made a big one as I thought my nephews where coming ...so she had about two pounds worth! Shes a big baby


He's a Dogo Argentino, ~105 pounds. He's from working hog dog stock but will never hunt because he's deaf. He is a wonderful dog - sweet-natured, even-tempered, smart, willing to please. I am grateful his breeder placed him with me instead of killing him, as most Dogo breeders do when they have deaf pups.
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Quoting Grothar:


It's the lonliest number you'll every do.


You are tempting me so much tonight. Golden Years, etc.
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595. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:



That is terrible. I didn't know it was that bad.


Yes, I just realized it was getting bad over there, before 2pm they were dry. That's one persistent band of thunderstorms in the area.
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592. JLPR2
Quoting txjac:


So that rain should be hitting you soon? How much are others getting there?


Doesn't seem like it will reach me. So far the north and west have been pretty dry, the south has some decent totals 2-6inches, 8+ in some isolated areas.
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591. txjac
Quoting floodzonenc:


Wow. I would sit up and roll over for two pounds of prime rib! (Looks at his leftover pizza with disdain.)


Wish that you would have been here as I rather a human would have had it! I dont really eat red meat so there wasnt anyone else around ...and I wouldnt have made you do any tricks!
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The good news is that this week's Midwestern cold spell will be very short-lived, and not one of those long-lingering events that are seen so often in late winter and early spring. For instance, Garden City, Kansas--which reached 97 today--will see a high only in the mid-50s on Thursday, but it will be around 90 again on Saturday. And Minneapolis, which will drop into the low 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights, will rebound to around 80 by Monday. Having said that, yes, with the exception of a few last gasps (some areas in Texas will see temperatures from 105-110 tomorrow), this insanely long, hot, and drought-filled summer appears to be finally sliding into the record books. And good riddance...
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589. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
And the AARP that thinks we are old. In the words of the saintly Rush Limbaugh we are just seasoned citizens.


Not that I believe he's a saint ...but I like that quote!
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Quoting PcolaDan:


One is such a lonely number.


It's the lonliest number you'll every do.
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Quoting ElConando:


It must have felt like two years ago to you too. xD god i'm terrible.


And to think, I was going to leave you in my will.
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Quoting defdogz:


Perhaps places, too. I absolutely refuse to turn on the heat until after Oct. 15. Gonna be a couple three dog nights later this week..........


One is such a lonely number.
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583. txjac
Quoting JLPR2:


NE, a few minutes from San Juan.


So that rain should be hitting you soon? How much are others getting there?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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