Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FrankZapper:
Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.
Really??  The run I saw had that potential storm heading towards Mexico, not Texas.

And I wouldn't quite declare the season dead by any means in the GoM...if the Texas Death Ridge does seem to be weakening its grip, and the fronts begin to move on in, or if the A-B High decides to reestablish itself, it still could get interesting. Remember Lili of 2002?? Juan of 1985?? Opal?? Georges??

Most storms coming out of the W or SW Carribean, though, I expect to either go W into Mexico or CenAm, or get shunted N to NE into Florida or the Atlantic.


Anthony
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I'm still here. 168 hours and nothing yet.

And the rain that the GFS run last night brought to Texas? That's mostly gone too.
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731. DFWjc
Quoting TexasHurricane:


good news! where in TX?


I'll believe it when it's a puddle that doesn't evaporate in less than 30 seconds on the ground :P
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours show the capture of Maria completed. There are no other interesting areas in the tropics. I'll keep watching the run to see if anything pops up.


This could be the next "pops up".... Just to go out from Africa...

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours show the capture of Maria completed. There are no other interesting areas in the tropics.



the season is dead lol
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The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours show the capture of Maria completed. There are no other interesting areas in the tropics. I'll keep watching the run to see if anything pops up.
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The 00Z run of the GFS at 84 hours shows Maria near 42N 59W, moving northeastwards quickly, and beginning to be captured by a larger low.
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The 00Z run of the GFS at 72 hours shows Maria near 37N 65W and deepening, possibly from baroclinic factors. Probably a Cat 1 hurricane. No other action in the tropics.
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The 00Z run of the GFS at 60 hours shows Maria at 32N 68W moving NNE. Close enough to give Bermuda a few squalls but still too far west to be dangerous.

Maria strengthened between 48 and 60 hours and is now on the border between tropical storm and hurricane.
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.


good news! where in TX?
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Quoting luigi18:


She is driving us Crazy thanks God is out to SEA can you imagine having her visit us here in PR for these 3 days!
Well is she hangs out in there for 24 hours and the convection continues to pulls southward, we might get 1975 Tropical storm Loisa, in Puerto Rico, hope not. Loisa was one killer storm.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.


huh? that is far out, but got a picture or link to that?
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.




no no no all rain has too come too me 1st TX cant have any heh heh heh
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Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.
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oh if any one cares window 8 build Conference starts on SEP 13th too SEP 16th whats see if they cone out with window 8 beta


Link
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Eh ... normally I'm all for a strong fish storm ... but the weaker Maria is the less of a cool wake she'll leave and the less effect of rising pressure will result. Too much cooling and it will enhance storm propagation further south.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



can we make it a cat 5 lol


That's subject to the energy constraints of the atmospheric and oceanic system Taz :P
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715. 7544
idk none of the models showed her even stalling this long shes got to move soon or not
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
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TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.
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The 00Z GFS run at 48 hours shows Maria near 29N 69W at about the same strength. No other tropical development.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
At 36 hours in the 00Z GFS run Maria is near 26N 69W moving due north as a strong tropical storm



can we make it a cat 5 lol
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Keeper of the Gate's sun image makes me think of the Green Lantern.
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At 36 hours in the 00Z GFS run Maria is near 26N 69W moving due north as a strong tropical storm
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think hurricane season is ending early this year?


I think we will go through November with storms. Could be wrong. We'll find out!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think hurricane season is ending early this year?


I don't think it'll end early, I think we're just heading into a short lull. I've seen that happen from time to time.
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I guess it would depend on how you defined stationary. Within a degree size square for latitude and longitude?

Storms can crawl, do hairpin turns and loop but they seldom are absolutely stationary.
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dos any one think hurricane season is ending early this year?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks for the information. I was looking for data about the longest time a Hurricane was stationary and its consecuenses...



Flora wasn't completely stationary, but was in the same general area for 4 days. A hurricane the whole time. Hit Haiti as a Cat 4, then hung out over eastern Cuba. Most of the fatalities were in Cuba.

There were reliable reports of 70" of rain, and even reports of 90"

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 24 hours shows Maria near 24N 69W stronger than she is now, but still a tropical storm.

I'm doubting she will be much stronger with her lack of organization and continued shear.



the 18z showed a hurricane hiting MX at the end whats see what it show this yeting you no what too keep a eye on at the end of the mode runs
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700. 7544
hmm wasmaria supoose to stall for this long and could the trof weaken before it grabs her tia
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Quoting txjac:


I believe that some of it is due to Nate spinning around for days and bringing up cooler waters ...plus we just had a cool/cold front pass through here for about a week...temps were way down ...however that have now returned to their unbearable triple digits!


Just heard the high is moving away from Texas! 85 is the high on Thursday here in Dallas. Plus, chances of rain from the front moving east from the Rockies is getting better and better. A change is a coming. :)
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The 00Z run of the GFS at 24 hours shows Maria near 24N 69W stronger than she is now, but still a tropical storm.

I'm doubting she will be much stronger with her lack of organization and continued shear.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Hurricane Flora did that for 4 days in 1963 in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Over 7,000 dead.


Thanks for the information. I was looking for data about the longest time a Hurricane was stationary and its consecuenses...

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Quoting sunlinepr:
What the heck is holding Maria there... can you imagine a stationary Cat 1 hurricane the same period of time Maria has been here... It would be catastrophic...

When will she get things moving??



Hurricane Flora did that for 4 days in 1963 in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Over 7,000 dead.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Maria doesnt act like she wants to "feel the weakness" ....and there is a little moisture in Texas !


water vapor imagery does not represent actual water vapor content in the air. if you look at the scale it is also sensing a temperature (ie corresponding to a certain height). Water vapor = Infrared just using a different wave length, that gets reflected at a slightly different height.

Link
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What the heck is holding Maria there... can you imagine a stationary Cat 1 hurricane the same period of time Maria has been here... It would be catastrophic...

When will she get things moving??

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Definitely a better choice...now trade in that memory leaking Firefox for Chrome...LOL!




firefox 7 will come with the fix for memory leaking
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Quoting floodzonenc:


Sorry... I would have been a better supporter but I was watching MNF.

I always miss good "Series" until they are over and in syndication. Please keep "I Predict" alive.

Consider this the start of a petition. :)
If only the Treekies/Treekers had had this support!

Thank you
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba




Definitely a better choice...now trade in that memory leaking Firefox for Chrome...LOL!
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Maria doesnt act like she wants to "feel the weakness" ....and there is a little moisture in Texas !

Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
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Culebra PR just repoted 30mph south  sustained winds and 38mph wind gust
Fajardo PR just reported 34.4mph south wind gust
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Maria has tops to 65000 ft on radar, that's tall.


Hail? Hail yes I bet!
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The video seems odd---the people in the parking lot don't seem to be dealing with much wind. But they are downwind of the building, so that explains it.

I'm not suggesting the video is fake. ITN is a good news organization.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe have a nic vacation am paying for evere one


Well I'm ready for one.....lets go :)))...and I dont even know what an Acer is....I have a dull Dell laptop :\
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.