Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 783 - 733

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

I wish it would just go about its northerly business, is all. All this hanging about and looping is not condusive to the comfort of those to the west of it.

I suppose the trough / front that's supposed to take it out is going to pick it up today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Just took a look at Maria.




This is one weird storm, is all I can say. It's moved about 50 miles in the last 2 days, it seems. [OK, I'm sure its more, but really! it's been hovering over that little NE corner of the CAR for days....]



Hi Baha, it seems to be moving SE,more like drifting or looping
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all. Just took a look at Maria.




This is one weird storm, is all I can say. It's moved about 50 miles in the last 2 days, it seems. [OK, I'm sure its more, but really! it's been hovering over that little NE corner of the CAR for days....]

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear ahead of that African disturbance is 20 to 30+ knots, and shear tendency is upward. Note area between 30 and 60 West:

Wind Shear and Shear Tendency
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Ya'll got me looking at SAL

Nearly 100 animals were found dead after a Petco store flooded in upstate New York. Petco apologizes to the community after residents express outrage, and the company promises a full investigation.



SAL doesn't look too bad. What is the prognosis for that disturbance on the coast of Africa?

MIMIC gives a clearer picture (much clearer than radar) of what is going on with Maria.

CIMSS MIMIC Maria

re: Petco - that reinforces a decision I previously made to favor their competition.

WTO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I guess it would depend on how you defined stationary. Within a degree size square for latitude and longitude?

Storms can crawl, do hairpin turns and loop but they seldom are absolutely stationary.


I would say drifting NW at 2mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting vince1:

I'll stick with Firefox, which is improving
Indeed, the betas are already showing promise.


Firefox 6 (6.02) is great. I often have 25 or 30 windows open, running javascript and activeX, and Firefox rarely crashes. Chrome is coming along nicely - I use it for some things. Internet Explorer is my third choice - I only use it when required for some dark ages or proprietary websites.

Edit: I have 9 GB of RAM in a powerful desktop so I tend not to notice memory leakage that is relatively mild.

WTO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The forecasters were calling for quality over quantity and we are getting the opposite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing exciting on the global models. If October isn't insanely active...this is going to be a BIG bust in terms of hurricanes. We haven't even had a hurricane this season that gives you the WOW factor and we are past the peak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
This disturbance was developed by the 12z EURO run.



That looks very menacing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Definitely a better choice...now trade in that memory leaking Firefox for Chrome...LOL!

I'll stick with Firefox, which is improving
Quoting Tazmanian:




firefox 7 will come with the fix for memory leaking

Indeed, the betas are already showing promise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
circulation is evident in long range radar from PR, looks to almost be moving SE slowly.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Also here, quiet and good temp. for sleeping...

Hasta la vista beibi.... (spanglish)

No drought.... 500 gallons of rain water collected... for daily use...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
770. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


How are you guys doing for rain this year?? My guess is you are NOT having a drought year??


Nope, in fact I believe we are at above normal levels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Still not a drop in my area while the SE and south are getting swamped.
Puerto Rico is going to get nail tonight good, all of Maria's convection hsading SE...towards the big Island
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
Quoting JLPR2:
Still not a drop in my area while the SE and south are getting swamped.


How are you guys doing for rain this year?? My guess is you are NOT having a drought year??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
767. JLPR2
Still not a drop in my area while the SE and south are getting swamped.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
766. Skyepony (Mod)
Ya'll got me looking at SAL

Nearly 100 animals were found dead after a Petco store flooded in upstate New York. Petco apologizes to the community after residents express outrage, and the company promises a full investigation.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


And to think, I was going to leave you in my will.


And to think I was gonna get so much money from you being that you are a Robber Barron and all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Virgin Islands, specially Anegada, should be in TS conditions, now for a while...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
763. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Going NW?


Yep, out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
This disturbance was developed by the 12z EURO run.



Going NW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



i dont no what your seeing but i see all most no SAL at all at this time


Well, not as strong as months before, but some there in the N of the new wave....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
760. JLPR2
This disturbance was developed by the 12z EURO run.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
759. JLPR2
Another area of 8"+ rainfall accumulating in south PR.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
SAL is doing it's inhibiting job again.... Good...




i dont no what your seeing but i see all most no SAL at all at this time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
757. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


And we have still October to go... and november...


If that run becomes a reality then we could very well have to dust off the Greek alphabet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Let see in that last run of the GFS I saw:

Ophelia in the CATL, barely reaching the islands, seems to dissipate before achieving it.

Philippe behind Ophelia, recurving near 50w.

Seems like a TD in the Western Caribbean, but considering strength isn't exactly what the models are known for, it could very well be Rina.

Sean behind Philippe, at 20N 40W at the end of the run.

If that were to happen it would put September at 7 named storms.


And we still have October to go... and november...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update!
Quoting JLPR2:
Let see in that last run of the GFS I saw:

Ophelia in the CATL, barely reaching the islands, seems to dissipate before achieving it.

Philippe behind Ophelia, recurving near 50w.

Seems like a TD in the Western Caribbean, but considering strength isn't exactly what the models are known for, it could very well be Rina.

Sean behind Philippe, at 20N 40W at the end of the run.

If that were to happen it would put September at 7 named storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. JLPR2
Let see in that last run of the GFS I saw:

Ophelia in the CATL, barely reaching the islands, seems to dissipate before achieving it.

Philippe behind Ophelia, recurving near 50w.

Seems like a TD in the Western Caribbean, but considering strength isn't exactly what the models are known for, it could very well be Rina.

Sean behind Philippe, at 20N 40W at the end of the run.

If that were to happen it would put September at 7 named storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAL is doing it's inhibiting job again.... Good...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS run tonight took away the Texas rain forecast for the weekend but brings moderate to heavy rain to much of Texas on September 20-21.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 384 hours shows the Cape Verde storm is near 20N 41W. The storm has weakened slightly between 360-372 hours and strengthened to a Cat 1 hurricane between 372-384 hours. It slowed down a lot between 372-384 hrs. The trough to the northwest is filling in.

That concludes this run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.

Stop the teasing... I remember some weeks ago, we had 80% possibilities of rain in Houston, went to zip overnight. I'll believe it when I see it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 00Z GFS run at 360 hours shows the Cape Verde storm at the edge of hurricane strength. It is moving WNW and is near 17.5N 40W. A large trough is developing in the central Atlantic and starting to scoop the storm north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
748. JLPR2
Maria has a twin in the Wpac.


Looks nice on infrared but the LLC is displaced to the west of the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting swflurker:
Can I get the 6888 hr run?


You can write the program and get the supercomputers yourself ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 00Z GFS run at 324 hours shows the Cape Verde tropical storm gaining strength. It is near 15N 37W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can I get the 6888 hr run?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 288 hours shows the depression emerging into the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N, 91W and moving WNW. A vigorous disturbance is SW of the Cape Verde Islands near 13N 30W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like it's reorganizing and expanding just N of PR.... S convection now over the N PR...

If it keeps stationary and expands, we will be inside the TS impact area...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 312 hours shows the Campeche depression moving west into Mexico near Veracruz and dying. The Cape Verde system is now a tropical storm near 14.5N 35W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 288 hours shows the depression emerging into the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N, 91W and moving WNW. A vigorous disturbance is SW of the Cape Verde Islands near 13N 30W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Culebra PR just repoted 30mph south  sustained winds and 38mph wind gust
Fajardo PR just reported 34.4mph south wind gust
Yes tonight Puerto Rico is feeling the effects of a real storm, and it looks that is going to turn worst with a tropical storm almost stationary on top of us..
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
The 00Z run of the GFS at 264 hours shows the west Caribbean low developing into a tropical depression and making landfall on the Yucatan coast near the Mexico/Belize border.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The same large low that last night's GFS showed in the western Caribbean appeared at 168 hours. It is weaker than last night's run. At 240 hours still showing no signs of development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On a westward track, Tropical Depression Eleven steadily intensified, becoming a tropical storm on September 11 at 1800 UTC; it received the name Hugo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NCEP page is freezing up for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


I'll believe it when it's a puddle that doesn't evaporate in less than 30 seconds on the ground :P


lol....not really funny, but is.

well, I hope that high will move soon and some good rain can come in.

Wishful thinking anyways.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
735. flsky
This is beautiful. Any info to add w/the pic?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm still here. 168 hours and nothing yet.

And the rain that the GFS run last night brought to Texas? That's mostly gone too.



heh heh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting FrankZapper:
Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.
Really??  The run I saw had that potential storm heading towards Mexico, not Texas.

And I wouldn't quite declare the season dead by any means in the GoM...if the Texas Death Ridge does seem to be weakening its grip, and the fronts begin to move on in, or if the A-B High decides to reestablish itself, it still could get interesting. Remember Lili of 2002?? Juan of 1985?? Opal?? Georges??

Most storms coming out of the W or SW Carribean, though, I expect to either go W into Mexico or CenAm, or get shunted N to NE into Florida or the Atlantic.


Anthony
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 783 - 733

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.