Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Levi, Can you please post the MJO for the next few weeks and give a short conclusion. I was looking it over and in my opinion it does not look to be in green for to long for the caribbean. I just want to make sure I am correct
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term fish was used when i was a kid in the sixties we used it back in the 90s on the west palm beach blog a fish is not hitting the conus simple as that. sorry islanders canadian english bahamians and bermudians nothing personal but thats the way it is
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4717
Quoting AussieStorm:
58. RitaEvac 3:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Not to be negitive but... Couldn't you of made that as a personal blog and link it here. it's a really long comment.
uhh.. same for you Aussie.. had a few full length entries yourself on this morning's blog.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Well, looks like we have a new blog cop. Thought that was Pat's job.

This fish stuff is just your opinion right? Or is it a law? Or are we not allowed to define fish storm to suit our own liking?


I'd read comment 69. That's a good read (BTW, thanks for that piece Nea).

The storms that do go out to sea impact those who are out there on ships. Hence, why the local chief met and I use the term "shipping-interest storm." A storm doesn't have to hit land to cause an impact.
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Quoting cmahan:


Actually, for reasonable people, "fish storm" is restricted to storms that do not hit land at all. The definition only widens to "any storm that doesn't strike the U.S." if you're a jerk.

Excellent!!! Plus 1
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Quoting AussieStorm:
58. RitaEvac 3:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Not to be negitive but... Couldn't you of made that as a personal blog and link it here. it's a really long comment.


RitaEvac - Thank you for all of the information you posted. I feel it is quite useful and takes up no more space than someone posting three long posts in a row. Your information is in the correct blog...the main blog.
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Quoting bluenosedave:


Sure wasn't. This is one reason I find that term so annoying. It isn't useful and it's rarely accurate.
It's a term use only by some people from the continental U.S. meaning with that, it isn't going to hit CONUs.But there is a world beyond the U.S. That is why that term is so ackward and unrealistic to say the least.
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Boy for the peak of the season there is not really much going on out there at the moment.
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It appears that the LLC is (finally) moving to the North.
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58. RitaEvac 3:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2011
Not to be negitive but... Couldn't you of made that as a personal blog and link it here. it's a really long comment.
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, September 12th, with Video
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Quoting aquak9:
Aspectre:
* Y'all ought to be ashamed of yourselves; especially aquak9 who came up with a doozy that involves a regular poster who wouldn't even have the time what with the aftermath of Irene.

I haven't got a CLUE WTH you're talking about. But I am at work and do not have the time to defend such foolishness to the likes of a nutball as yourself.

In the meantime, GFY.

Aussie- You should know better than that- why don't you ask the SOURCE.

Mate, WU-Mail me.



So after reading quite a few posts on the main blog about "fish storms", I felt a need to clear up a few misconceptions with them.

1. What is a "fish storm"?
> A "fish storm" is one that is generally viewed to not impact land areas at all. In other words, it misses the Caribbean islands, and curves out to sea before hitting the United States coastline.

2. What about Bermuda, and the Canadian Maritimes?
> According to many of the people to proclaim a storm to be a "fish storm", they don't exist. Don't mind the thousands of people that live there, and the billions of dollars that have been invested in structures and infrastructure.

3. Ok... so if it doesn't hit the Caribbean islands, and it doesn't hit the US East Coast, and it misses Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes... can it then be considered a "fish storm"?
> Absolutely not. Even if it doesn't make landfall it still impacts people. Thousands of people are at sea in the Atlantic Ocean at any given time. From fishermen to oil tankers, from container vessels to navy ships, they are all impacted by storms in the Atlantic.

4. But that is only a few thousand people, and just their ships, right?
> Not really. Consider just one container vessel. An "average" transatlantic vessel will hold 1500-3000 containers on board, carrying everything from resin (used to make plastics) to foodstuffs, to finished electronics. Basically... a very large majority of our daily purchases. When a major storm is kicking up waves and wind in the Atlantic, the storms at the very least are delayed into port (kinda hard to do 20 knots when you are getting battered by 30+ foot waves), and at the very worst, a container vessel can lose part of its cargo if hit by a rogue wave. Also, keep in mind these brave people are *working* in nasty weather. They are hauling fish, checking containers on board, and protecting our shores in this kind of weather.



5. Ok... I'm starting to see your point. But what if everyone at sea was moved from the area?
> You still have the crazy/stupid/wierd/suicidal people that surf these high waves, or go swimming with strong seas... and get sucked out by the currents. Even beyond that, strong waves cause coastal erosion, and potential undermining of coastal structures, if not outright tidal flooding.

So basically what I am saying is that there is no such thing as a "fish storm". Every tropical cyclone is going to impact SOMEONE. People can die, millions of dollars of damage can be done, even if a cyclone never makes landfall.

From jeffs713 blog, "Fish" Storm.
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apparently we have a fall ball game ,Dr. thanks for the update. we can live in NC without another storm. But October can produce the worst as recorded. another safe month would be great for all.
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Why tropical weather expert Max Mayfield doesn't use the unscientific term "fish storm" (and why I don't either):
Bill is more than a "fish storm"

I have heard some people refer to Hurricane Bill as a “fish storm.” That is not an accurate description if they are implying that Bill will have no impacts to land areas or to marine interests. Bill is large and powerful and, as mentioned in the National Hurricane Center advisories, large swells generated by this hurricane are affecting the northern Leeward Islands and should begin affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, most of the eastern U.S. coast, and the Atlantic Maritimes of Canada during the next few days. And time will tell how strong the winds will be on Bermuda, Cape Code, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

I’m also reminded of a hurricane conference a few years ago when one presenter referred to a particular hurricane as a “fish storm.” The conference attendees from the U.S. Navy almost came out of their seats. The presenter only meant to imply that there were no direct impacts to land areas. Those with marine interests in the audience made it clear that hurricanes and the forecasts of hurricanes are of great importance to them and can have huge impacts. Hurricanes have the potential to cause loss of life over the open ocean to those on ships and there are obvious economic consequences as well. In fact, it costs the Navy tens of millions of dollars if, for example, the fleet at Norfolk has to be moved from port due to a hurricane threat.

The historical record indicates that the loss of life related to hurricanes has shifted from ship-related to coastal and inland areas. This is likely due in large part to improvements in communications allowing ships to move out of harm’s way. But let’s not forget that hurricanes can indeed have impacts to the marine community.

Max Mayfield's Hurricane Blog - August 20, 2009
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Quoting Oxon:
May I ask a question, picking up on something from the previous blog?

I know that the general assumption has been that a warming world would not see more frequent hurricanes, but would see more violent ones.

This year, we've seen a lot of potential storms be (thank God) weakened by dry air, especially if they were near continental areas that had been experiencing heat and drought. That kind of heat and drought is also, presumably, going to be more frequent if there's warming.

Which left me wondering: am I correct in thinking that the problem may not be that hurricanes in general will become more powerful (you may get another group like this year's), but that if you get circumstances where everything comes together (there's not dry air, SSTs remain high, etc) the upper-end potential, as it were, is going to get higher and higher? Or is that getting things all muddled.



Global Warming ultimately will create more moisture in the atmosphere and thus less potential for dry air intrusion as we have seen this year. I was thinking the same but the evidence is not there yet. The high over Texas has been persistent but this looks to be more of the anomaly and not the norm going forward. I could be wrong.
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Quoting MikeVentrice:



Nice discussion.. I just wanted to point out that even though the SSTs are cooling over the eastern Pacific, it does not necessarily mean that the atmospheric response to those conditions are on board yet. This being said, teleconnection patterns may not be as robust as you might be thinking. If you take a look at the time-longitude diagram of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR anomalies) with filtered OLR in wavenumber and frequency for different equatorial wave modes and **LOW-FREQUENCY** convective signatures (Solid bold black contours), even though the SSTs are cooling in the Pacfic, the atmosphere has not yet adjusted into a La-Nina state. Further, we are not even sure if this current SST anomaly pattern is a bonified La Nina, or if it is just intraseasonal variability within Ocean forced by an up-welling oceanic Kelvin wave. The current intraseasonal atmospheric pattern suggests a relaxation of the cooling within the eastern Pacific as a series of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events may develop within the next 1-3 months.

-Mike V.


Sorry forgot to add the link of the figure I was mentioning.
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66. jpsb
Quoting basti11:



well i spoke to 2 reliable mets and they told me what the definition of a FISH STORM is to them...if we went by what you say we would never have a fish storm take katia hitting scotland..so according to you katia wasnt a fish storm...guy you have a lot to learn...check with any met that just might educate you on what a FISH STORM is..
Katia did not hit Scotland, Katia died (as a tropical cyclone) in the North Atlantic. The upper level low that resulted from the death of Katia (Katias' ghost) is what hit the UK, not Katia.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Alright. Two decent members are banned, 1 other is apparently assigning some sort of blame in the wrong place, and now, we have an expected response for such shenanigans.

And as to why the 2 got banned, I've seen one other make the most postings of initials-boy-with-curtain. In fact, about half of his posts are equally as useless and meant entirely to incite off-topic conversation at the expense of those he mocks. But he isn't banned.

So, Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot is really going on in here?


Hmm... I believe is due to la Nina. If El Nino would have been here then that would have been another story. :)
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Totally out of control in Texas.

See post 58
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la nina seems to be coming back could lead to a few w. carib storms this fall?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4717
2010-2011 Drought becomes the 2nd worst drought in State History!

Summer of 2011 (Jun-Aug) the hottest ever for the state of Texas!




La Nina develops again in the central Pacific…indications suggest this drought will continue into 2012 (a multi-year event)



Drought:

The current Drought Monitor shows an astounding 81% of the state in exceptional drought or the worst category. 95% of the state is either in exceptional or extreme drought. Rainfall deficits across southeast Texas are now approaching 25-30 inches since last October and nearing 40 inches at Galveston since Hurricane Ike. These are staggering deficits, none of us have seen such large rainfall departures in our lifetime.



Current PDSI values fell from -7.12 in July 2011 to -7.75 in August 2011 making this drought now the 2nd worst on record. Listed below are the worst droughts and their PDSI values:



1951-1957: -7.80

2010-2011: -7.75

1916-1918: -7.09

1924-1925: -6.10

1999-2000: -5.51



February 1 to Sept 3 rainfall (driest ever by far for IAH, Hobby, College Station):

COLLEGE

HOUSTON HOBBY STATION



5.95 2011 7.21 2011 7.93 2011

12.50 1917 14.30 1956 9.39 1925

14.03 1901 16.41 1963 11.73 1988

14.93 1930 16.48 1953 11.86 1917

15.29 1951 17.18 1998 13.06 1937



Note: For BUSH IAH to move to 2nd place a staggering 6.55 inches of rainfall would be required and for Hobby 7.09 inches. This is an incredible record.



Rainfall Departures from October 1, 2010 to September 3 are:

Bellville: -24.60

Brenham: -24.55

College Station: -23.18

Columbus: -25.32

Conroe: -27.73

Crockett: -20.53

Danevang: -20.05

Galveston: -17.97

Freeport: -26.99

Hobby: -26.96

BUSH IAH: -26.72

Huntsville: -29.08

Katy: -24.64

Livingston: -31.21

Madisonville: -26.97

Matagorda: -25.37

Tomball: -33.13

Victoria: -26.73

Corpus Christi: -18.94



Rainfall Departures since Hurricane Ike:



BUSH IAH: -27.39

Hobby Airport: -32.81

College Station: -27.61

Galveston: -38.87



Fire Weather:

In the last 7 days alone, 181 fires have burned 166,45 acres across the state.
Elevated to at times critical fire weather conditions will continue until widespread wetting rains fall over the entire region. If rains do not fall, the state will have critical fire weather conditions behind each cold frontal passage this fall under strong and dry north winds which will promote rapid wind driven wildfires.



This is the worst fire weather conditions we have ever faced and additional fires similar to the Bastrop fire will become increasingly common if no rain falls.



Currently 251 out of 254 counties have burn bans in place, effective last week it is prohibited to start a BBQ in any City of Houston Park.



Agriculture:

Crop and livestock losses stand at 5.2 billion dollars


During the summer of 2010 hay was selling for 12 dollars per ton, today it is selling for 170 dollars per ton.


There is little to no vegetation left for livestock to feed on. Hay is being trucked into the region from the SE US and the central plains to substitute for the lack of vegetation locally. Un-irrigated vegetation is now either dead of close to being dead. KBDI values are nearly 750-800 across every county in the area. At values of 800, there is no longer any water in the top 8 inches of soil and all vegetation with roots in this layer will begin to die. It is interesting to note that Bastrop County has a KBDI value of 790, the highest in the area. KBDL values can also be used to determine fire spread and growth potential and anything over 700 is considered critical. The following is the KBDI value for selected counties:



Austin: 760

Bastrop: 790

Brazos: 770

Brazoria: 746

Calhoun: 757

Colorado: 779

Fort Bend: 751

Galveston: 705

Grimes: 769

Harris: 761

Lee: 783

Liberty: 728

Matagorda: 750

Montgomery: 782

Nueces: 768
San Jacinto: 771

Travis: 774

Trinity: 756

Victoria: 757

Waller: 765

Washington: 779

Wharton: 765



The extreme short term dryness coupled with the record and long lasting heat of this summer is also resulting in the loss of millions of trees across the area. It is estimated that at least 1.2 million trees have died in the last 3 months in the 8 county area around Houston. The Texas Forest Service estimates that between 26-64 million trees are currently at risk of dying from the current conditions or about 10-12% of the canopy coverage in this area. 6.6 million trees were lost to Hurricane Ike, so on the low end, the current drought may kill 4-5 times more trees than Ike. In Memorial Park alone 2,800 trees have died. In central Texas, live oak and cedar trees are starting to die from lack of water. Without sustained soaking rainfall all vegetation will continue to suffer and the area landscape will continue to decline.



Wildlife is also being greatly affected across the entire region as water sources have been depleted. There is no longer enough water to sustain wildlife in rural areas and significant losses are starting to occur especially with respect to turtles, deer, and ground forage animals. In lakes and streams where water has dried up all fish supplies have been lost.



Water Supply:

Strong evaporation rates from high temperatures and gusty winds continue to result in rapidly declining lake levels across the state. Decreases on capacity in the last 3 weeks has been 5-10% across many of the water supply systems. A total of 583 water supply systems have mandatory water restrictions in place with an additional 294 under voluntary restrictions. LCRA is reporting that the amount of water flowing into the Highland Lakes chain from Jan-July 2011 was only 10% of average, or the lowest ever recorded since the completion of Lake Travis in 1942. This poor inflow combined with incredible evaporation rates (122,000 acre feet) from Jan-July is resulting in significant losses on the water supply lakes. Based on the current lack of inflow into the lakes, strong evaporation, and demand, the lakes will continue to decline by about 1 foot per week into early October.





Lake levels below conservation pool and current capacity:

Lake Conroe: -5.30 (77%)

Lake Houston: -7.60 (61%)

Lake Buchanan: -27.36 (43%)

Lake Travis: -48.38 (39%)

Toledo Bend: -11.00 (61%)

Lake Livingston: -3.10 (86%)

Lake Somerville: -9.39 (43%)

Lake Georgetown: -22.61 (39%)

Sam Rayburn: -12.22 (59%)



Forecast:

No rain is forecast for the next 5 days, with maybe a 20% chance of rainfall over this upcoming weekend. With La Nina conditions developing again, and the tropical threat appearing to end for Texas, a warm and dry fall, winter, and spring appears to be in store for the state. 1 and 3 month forecasts from CPC show below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures through the end of 2011. The current drought will be maintained or worsen and conditions will continue toward critical levels.

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Here we are at the apex of hurricane season, and nary a tropical wave to discuss.

I blame climate change for this lack of activity.

Just like I blamed climate change for the 2005 hurricane season. Climate change and the president who allowed those hurricanes to strike us.


It's all due to climate change, which is 100% the fault of energy hogging, conservative Americans.


Chinese CO2 is perfectly harmless- it's a collective CO2. And Al Gore's massive CO2 emissions are ejected into the atmosphere with good intentions, so they do not count, either.



LOL- i am glad my FL house is safe for the next few days, anyway.
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basti11 3:40 PM GMT on September 12, 2011



we cant hear you
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Quoting basti11:



a FISH STORM only becomes a fish storm if it doesnt affect the united states..that is the definition of a FISH STORM...if doesnt matter if it hits and caribbean islands or bermuda ..if it misses the good old usa its known as a FISH STORM..


Actually, for reasonable people, "fish storm" is restricted to storms that do not hit land at all. The definition only widens to "any storm that doesn't strike the U.S." if you're a jerk.
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Quoting help4u:
Blog dead,back later.


"CLEAR..."
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Quoting help4u:
Major cold coming this week!Plains are nailed by cold air!

Yeah, I see that Minneapolis/St. Paul will dip into the upper 30s for the first time this season Wednesday night after a high today of 90. (For the record, the earliest first freeze ever in the Twin Cities was 9/3/74.)

On a related note, some are acting a bit nutty over this week's brief Midwestern cold snap, accusing the major media of intentionally ignoring it. (I say brief, as temps will rebound quickly to near-record warmth by the early part of next week.) But according to the SPC, Thursday and Friday will have many minus-4 and some minus-8 anomalies--and this after 110 days of plus-eight and plus-12 anomalies, so relatively speaking, it shouldn't be a big deal at all.
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Will a weak Maria make it to the east coast and then strengthen over the gulf stream?
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Looks like Marias LLC has screeched to a halt just west of 67W.

Like a kid racing ahead in a mall till they realize they need to wait up for mom.....or they'll get lost. lol


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Blog dead,back later.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


What the hell with Maria she is dancing en una lozeta!!!
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Katia visiting Europe, today's image.



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Major cold coming this week!Plains are nailed by cold air!
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Quoting will40:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST
ASSUMES MARIA WILL REMAIN A DEEP CYCLONE AND FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
IF MARIA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN INDICATED HERE AND
WEAKEN OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

from the 11:00 discussion. thats been my feeling all along. Just have to wait and see what happens


yep..Maria is doing what she wants to do..LOL
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UK Radar.

Winds rising across the UK.

The deep area of low pressure which contains post-tropical cyclone Katia was at 0900 BST centred approximately 200 miles northwest of Sligo, Ireland with a central pressure of 966 hpa. Winds are strengthening, currently meaning 55 mph with a recent gust of 82 mph at Capel Curig in the mountains of North Wales. Elsewhere winds are widely gusting to 40 to 50 mph, with further strengthening expected across some northern areas through today. Keep up to date with the latest warnings using the link below. Issued at 1024 on Mon 12 Sep 2011.

Link



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IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST
ASSUMES MARIA WILL REMAIN A DEEP CYCLONE AND FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
IF MARIA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN INDICATED HERE AND
WEAKEN OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

from the 11:00 discussion. thats been my feeling all along. Just have to wait and see what happens
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Note the lower SSTs in the Bay of Campeche from Nate and between Bermuda and the OBX from Katia.

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I posted yesterday that the track was off from the models..

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for

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Quoting Jax82:
Katia was not a fish after all! ;)


Definately not. Lots of power out in Ireland with trees down. Latest @ http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/atmosphere/ storm/former-hurricane-katia-batters-ireland-and-u k/37238.html
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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