Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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233. Jax82
Quoting tropicalnewbee:
anyone know if this miraculous turn is going to happen with maria? seems she is moving a lot farther west that everyone thought.


Take a look at the WV loop, the trof is digging all the way to central FL, the east coast is safe for now.
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Quoting will40:


yes it will prob happen. question is how far west she will be when it does happen


I am hoping before she will skirt the central east coast of florida-thats where I live. I do not mind a little wind and rain but others here do.
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Quoting tropicalnewbee:
anyone know if this miraculous turn is going to happen with maria? seems she is moving a lot farther west that everyone thought.


yes it will prob happen. question is how far west she will be when it does happen
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anyone know if this miraculous turn is going to happen with maria? seems she is moving a lot farther west that everyone thought.
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Quoting SOUTHFL43YRS:


Did you make it through Irene OK?


OK, lost some shingles as usual.
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Quoting fredric1979:


Mob, I was 5, the only thing I can truly remember is the sound of all the pine trees snapping. You ask anyone who was here then and man do they have some stories. That was the number 1 costliest storm for a while. That is still the earmark storm for a lot of people.
yeah my grandparents stayed in Bayou La Batre, Al during Frederic. They tell the stories of the wind howling and the trees snapping. It was definitely the worst here as far as wind. From what I hear anyways. But just from pure damage it is Katrina that I hear about now. I mean they was launching boats in the middle of the highway to go save people. The power of the water from storm surge is unreal. My house was destroyed from water in Katrina. It was there during Frederic and nothing happened to it. But you are right, as far as wind Frederic is the worst, but the damage goes to Katrina. My family and myself were homeless for 7 months after Katrina. Slept on my screen porch for 2 months before we finally got a FEMA camper. And them campers are small when you got 3 people and 2 dogs.
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227. Jax82
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
a little exaggerated ...




OMG!!!! ;)
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Quoting fredric1979:


Mob, I was 5, the only thing I can truly remember is the sound of all the pine trees snapping. You ask anyone who was here then and man do they have some stories. That was the number 1 costliest storm for a while. That is still the earmark storm for a lot of people.
We experienced that storm a few days before you, in Puerto Rico, when it cross the Island from east to west, just 3 days after we were skirt by cat. 4 hurricane David; terrible year for the island of Puerto Rico,many lost of lives and property after having two strikes in one week.
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Quoting help4u:
Since most on here think the hurricane season is over with the cold moving in anyone have any ideas of what winter will be like.
cold i hope....LOL
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Quoting help4u:
Since most on here think the hurricane season is over with the cold moving in anyone have any ideas of what winter will be like.


Talking bout NW Gulf
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Quoting help4u:
Since most on here think the hurricane season is over with the cold moving in anyone have any ideas of what winter will be like.


A repeat of last year, only a little bit less cold.
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Since most on here think the hurricane season is over with the cold moving in anyone have any ideas of what winter will be like.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



covering up
center under some convection finally


Did you make it through Irene OK?
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a little exaggerated ...


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Early Fall!! At least it feels like it and the GFS has nothing developing for a while. I just hope this is true.
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I don't think I've seen anything like that in my life! typing and drugged at same time in the hospital. I can't help but LMAO, lol

To post 212

Yhanks for thy kiind thoughtd guys. my rigjt eye is swoll shut and im om heavy drugn, My right Eyey has Ceulitis. It is bavteria, my rifht eye also mhas a shinge oi itthujs crap reallihutrs. dugs are knokkingmeout byebye
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covering up
center under some convection finally
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why does wikipedia has katia as a Cat 5?

Hurricane Katia strengthening on September 4.
Formed August 29, 2011
Dissipated September 12, 2011
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
160 mph (255 km/h)
Lowest pressure 926 mbar (hPa; 27.34 inHg)
Fatalities 2 direct, 1 missing
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, United Kingdom
Part of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

??? I know it's wrong but...
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The worst hurricane in Tampa's history hit Oct 25 1921. It developed north of Panama. I am not letting my guard down yet.
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Quoting RussianWinter:

Wish that cold would come to Miami. We've been getting 90's for many days in a row and it ain't stopping any time soon. As a Eurasian-born I know what Celsius is and it's pretty darn cold swing if you go from like 26-27 to 6-7 (Like going from nice summer weather to slightly above freezing temps). Will that cold stick around or will it leave and pull out before Florida and the Gulf get's hit by the mighty storm the models are predictin?


It will probably pull out before development tries to occur, but normal to cooler than normal conditions may try to stick around over the eastern U.S. for a little while afterwards.
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Yhanks for thy kiind thoughtd guys. my rigjt eye is swoll shut and im om heavy drugn, My right Eyey has Ceulitis. It is bavteria, my rifht eye also mhas a shinge oi itthujs crap reallihutrs. dugs are knokkingmeout byebye
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Quoting mobhurricane2011:
Hard to believe that it has been 32 years since Frederic made landfall on the Al/Ms state line. It was the year before I was born. It was the only storm I heard people in Mobile, Al talk about until Katrina in 2005. We had other storms hit between them time frames, Georges, Danny, and Ivan, although we got lucky here in Mobile with Ivan when right before landfall it took a turn to the east and hit Baldwin County, Al and P-cola extremely hard


Mob, I was 5, the only thing I can truly remember is the sound of all the pine trees snapping. You ask anyone who was here then and man do they have some stories. That was the number 1 costliest storm for a while. That is still the earmark storm for a lot of people.
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Quoting Levi32:


I already know what your opinion of "cold" in the summer is Rita lol. I won't try to make you appreciate what 20 degrees Celsius below normal in September actually means.

Wish that cold would come to Miami. We've been getting 90's for many days in a row and it ain't stopping any time soon. As a Eurasian-born I know what Celsius is and it's pretty darn cold swing if you go from like 26-27 to 6-7 (Like going from nice summer weather to slightly above freezing temps). Will that cold stick around or will it leave and pull out before Florida and the Gulf get's hit by the mighty storm the models are predictin?
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Quoting Levi32:


???


Well, at least he enjoys your opnions...
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12Z CMC 144hours out


12z Nogaps


system off the NC Coast
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Quoting HIPPOCRITT:

Season's a Bust.
Is that a bad thing? Not in my book. I'm glad it is bust for Florida, and feel badly for everyone else suffering from Irene, and Lee.
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Quoting CCravey01:


Apparently I skipped a bit of reading in the discussion this morning, heh. Serves me right trying read tiny print on my phone at 5:30am, in the dark, and on just a few sips of coffee...oops, sorry. Thanks, will



welcome anytime
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Quoting Levi32:


I already know what your opinion of "cold" in the summer is Rita lol. I won't try to make you appreciate what 20 degrees Celsius below normal in September actually means.


If it's 50 degrees for September in SE TX then yea that's cold
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Quoting will40:


Apparently I skipped a bit of reading in the discussion this morning, heh. Serves me right trying read tiny print on my phone at 5:30am, in the dark, and on just a few sips of coffee...oops, sorry. Thanks, will
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This what's left in Bastrop State Park



Nothing for the deer to eat or drink
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Quoting RitaEvac:


LOL, are you serious, is this have a legitimate chance?


I already know what your opinion of "cold" in the summer is Rita lol. I won't try to make you appreciate what 20 degrees Celsius below normal in September actually means.
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Quoting Levi32:
This is record cold. This is a big deal.



LOL, are you serious, is this have a legitimate chance?
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Quoting Grothar:


You're a mess! Just stay away from me. By the way, do you mean conjunctivitis instead of colitis of the eye?


LOL! Sorry that he is sick, but I honestly was thinking there was going to be a punch line after reading "colitis in my eyes."
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Quoting CCravey01:



I wonder why there is never any type of discussion on other scenarios...? If what you're saying is true, then I don't understand why the NHC doesn't talk about stuff like that. I think that would be pretty important info, ya know? I'm sure all of those models are very reliable, but what if they are configuring in how shallow Maria is, or if the ridge does not come down far enough?

I read this blog to have a better understanding of what all the "swirly lines" are, and to understand what ull's, mll's, and all that stuff mean and what impact they can or will have on a storm.


IF MARIA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN INDICATED HERE AND
WEAKEN OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.



from their discussion this morn
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12Z EURO predicting Subtropical formation off the NE Coastline.. Interesting
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Quoting zoomiami:


Some people will always find something to disagree with, I have come to the conclusion that they spend the day looking for things that they think are wrong so they can Ah-ha! I agree that it has diminished the character of this blog over the long term -- but ignore works rather well.

It is interesting to see Katia affecting Ireland and Scotland. Katia was really a long tracking storm, having come from Cape Verde all the way back to Europe.



I disagree. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26003
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:

Season's a Bust.





good luck with that lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114927
all communities evolve over time...it is simply the way of things...and adds richness to life,,,,
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Quoting will40:


as long as she stays shallow that ridge is gonna have to come pretty far south to pick her up



I wonder why there is never any type of discussion on other scenarios...? If what you're saying is true, then I don't understand why the NHC doesn't talk about stuff like that. I think that would be pretty important info, ya know? I'm sure all of those models are very reliable, but what if they are not configuring in how shallow Maria is, or if the ridge does not come down far enough?

I read this blog to have a better understanding of what all the "swirly lines" are, and to understand what ull's, mll's, and all that stuff mean and what impact they can or will have on a storm.
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Quoting scott39:
hey gro, good too see you back. i havent been on here in awhile because Im in the hospital and very sick. Ive got shingles on my head and colitis in my eyes and now im dealing with pnemonia. im too young for this old crap. looks kike yhe conus is thy clear for awhile. my right ryr is shut , so spellinh will be a challsnge


You're a mess! Just stay away from me. By the way, do you mean conjunctivitis instead of colitis of the eye?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26003
Quoting Grothar:


One globe at a time, will!!!



Good for you Gro
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191. txjac
Quoting scott39:
hey gro, good too see you back. i havent been on here in awhile because Im in the hospital and very sick. Ive got shingles on my head and colitis in my eyes and now im dealing with pnemonia. im too young for this old crap. looks kike yhe conus is thy clear for awhile. my right ryr is shut , so spellinh will be a challsnge


OMG, poor baby. And here I am complaining. I am so sorry to hear this. Wish I could give you a hug (a mom hug). Wishing for a speedy recovery for you...take it easy
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2494
Quoting JLPR2:
Believe it or not, Maria is now the third biggest ACE contributor of the 2011 Hurricane (Tropical Storm) season. With a whooping 3.98 10^4 kt^2.

But she cant push the season over 70 all by herself.

I have been telling my son about the ACE, can anybody let me know,1 what it stands at at present, more or less,2 what is average for this time of year and 3 what is the record maximum for a season.
Thanks a lot if anybody can supply that info for me I'll pass it on to him.
Weather here in the UK even got a bit of a mention on the national news tonight at the end.Its very blustery and a few branches off trees in my street, about 80MPH in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the stay cat that lives here,{the catcaster,} will not go out tonight so its a good sign that the gales are with us for the night.
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Quoting will40:


you must be feeling better Gro. I see you are lifting that Globe much better


One globe at a time, will!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26003
Quoting scott39:
hey gro, good too see you back. i havent been on here in awhile because Im in the hospital and very sick. Ive got shingles on my head and colitis in my eyes and now im dealing with pnemonia. im too young for this old crap. looks kike yhe conus is thy clear for awhile. my right ryr is shut , so spellinh will be a challsnge






i wondered where you have been scott. We all hope you the best and a good recovery
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Quoting aprinz1979:
Since the blog is pretty slow right now, I would like to ask a stupid question..... Looking at some of the models, the high pressure builds in right after Maria goes north. If she were not to be pulled by the trough, could she continue west?


You don't have to wait until the blog is slow to ask a stupid question. I do it all the time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26003
Quoting Grothar:


Yes.

Thanks Grothar,I was afraid that is what you meant.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes.


you must be feeling better Gro. I see you are lifting that Globe much better
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Quoting Grothar:
The GFS, NOGAPS and the Euro are all calling for the same high pressure. Unusual to see them all agree that far out on such a strong high.


img src="">
hey gro, good too see you back. i havent been on here in awhile because Im in the hospital and very sick. Ive got shingles on my head and colitis in my eyes and now im dealing with pnemonia. im too young for this old crap. looks kike yhe conus is thy clear for awhile. my right ryr is shut , so spellinh will be a challsnge
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183. txjac
Quoting Grothar:
Anytime you see a strong high pressure over the NE US, like this image shows, you can expect extreme pressure falls in the Caribbean basin. This is a stong high pressure coming up this week.





Okay, here is where I have problems understanding the weather ...you are showing us this coming Saturday right? So we will have lower pressure then? Does that mean that it will be easier for it to rain or just easier for any system to come this way (that is if there is one)

What causes the highs and lows to move around, up and down?

Thanks to whomever has the patience for this
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2494

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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