Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting SouthALWX:
326:
Well, I dunno if it would or not. I think we have a storm that sneaks into the gulf ... but excluding an unlikely texas landfall, the rest of the gulf would be wide open depending on small scale features and exactly where the long wave troughing sets up. If it lines up with the texas panhandle, then areas west to LA could see the main impacts.


Considering the pattern, a trough would be able to pick a storm up to the northeast, so I would pretty much rule out Louisiana, unless the storm somehow missed the trough. There are many possibilities for a storm, but for now, mine is a storm to develop in the northwest Caribbean, crossing over the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, into the Central Gulf of Mexico, and the Northeast into Florida.
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haha 327! I hadn't seen that, but am encouraged that it jives up with my own thinking. (I'm only a Junior meteorology student, good to see the professionals agreeing, roughly, with my own thinking.)
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Anyone who tracks the tropics is aware that a strong high pressure system over New England can have an affect on the pressures in the Caribbean. All the models are calling for an extremely strong high pressure there.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
326:
Well, I dunno if it would or not. I think we have a storm that sneaks into the gulf ... but excluding an unlikely texas landfall, the rest of the gulf would be wide open depending on small scale features and exactly where the long wave troughing sets up. If it lines up with the texas panhandle, then areas west to LA could see the main impacts.
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Quoting fredric1979:


Mob, I was 5, the only thing I can truly remember is the sound of all the pine trees snapping. You ask anyone who was here then and man do they have some stories. That was the number 1 costliest storm for a while. That is still the earmark storm for a lot of people.

That was the year I moved to Pensacola and Fredric had just gone through Ala/Miss coastal areas...I had never seen an area so de-forested in my life.Other storms have come and gone...Then came Ivan...it was worse than Fredric IMO...
Ivan cured me of wanting to ride another one out...now we have an evac plan that includes monies put away for an extended motel stay if necessary...Best senerio would be to move away from the GOM coast,but am fulfilling a request to my ailing mother to stay here with her until she passes..I do so gladly but I keep a wary eye on the tropics and pray ...No more storms for us please...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can't help we are monitoring the same thing. But guess what? So is The Weather Channel, AccuWeather, and several other weather sites...Its easy to see in the computer models.


Normally I don't ever post long excerpts, but this is from Crown Weather. Almost all of the models are calling for some type of development in the Western Caribbean and have now for about a week. I believe this was from Saturday. Nothing new.


What’s Next In The Tropics?:
Looking beyond Maria and Nate, it appears that our next potential area of concern will be over the western Caribbean, southern Gulf of Mexico and possibly in the area around the Bahamas from about next weekend until the end of September. A strong area of high pressure is forecast to push eastward into the northeastern United States next weekend. This is the type of weather pattern that leads to development in the western Caribbean. In fact, a tropical wave may be tracking into the western Caribbean at the same time with the potential for lowering pressures in the southwestern Caribbean. The ensembles of the GFS and European models are hinting at lowering barometric pressures in the southwestern Caribbean starting around September 19th. So, this is something that will need to be watched for in the coming days.

As was forecast by Crown Weather Services back in the late spring, we are now reverting back into a La Nina and this phase of the ENSO are notorious for leading to strong October hurricanes in the Caribbean. Looking over the current weather pattern and the forecast model progs for the next couple of weeks, it appears that we may be heading into an October like weather pattern as early as 6 to 10 days from now and continuing right into October. This in turn would favor a lowering of barometric pressures in the western and southwestern Caribbean, as was mentioned in the previous paragraph.

October tropical cyclones normally track towards the Florida Peninsula, Cuba and the Bahamas. Given that we are in a La Nina, I feel somewhat confident in saying that we may have three to four tropical cyclones develop in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico in October with a threat to the eastern Gulf coast, the Florida Peninsula, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. In addition, don’t be surprised to see one or two storms form in November this year given the La Nina weather pattern. This hurricane season is not over by any stretch of the imagination.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting GBguy88:


Opal in 1995 also formed just off the coast of the Yucatan. Panhandlers remember her.


Yeah, that's another good track, although it'd probably be farther east.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Went back to look for some analogues for a potential storm in the Caribbean...here are some I found.

- Mitch ('98)
- Wilma ('05)
- Ida ('09)
- Paula ('10)
- Harvey ('11)
- Matthew ('10)
- Karl ('10)
- Richard ('10)
- Paloma ('08)


Opal in 1995 also formed just off the coast of the Yucatan. Panhandlers remember her.
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Yay for dry air.
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322. JLPR2


Seems nice, I believe this is the wave or disturbance that the GFS briefly develops.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INSISTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY
I hope they tell her that personally I don't think she can read yet.
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Went back to look for some analogues for a potential storm in the Caribbean...here are some I found.

- Mitch ('98)
- Wilma ('05)
- Ida ('09)
- Paula ('10)
- Harvey ('11)
- Matthew ('10)
- Karl ('10)
- Richard ('10)
- Paloma ('08)
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A few nice waves coming off of Africa. Let's see if they fizzle out once they hit the Atlantic. CV season is coming to an end very soon.

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316.
well, the colder temps would almost definitely be associated with some frontal activity and associated dry air. depending on timing, a front could easily stall out along the northern gulf coast. As a storm was steered toward this leftover dry air, ingestion would be possible. However, I tend to think that the amount of convection further south would provide a pocket of moisture. So long as sheer isn't too oppressive, a larger storm would have no problem mixing out marginally dry air before it could reach the core.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
I've been liking September for a Northern/Eastern gulf threat since July. Given the ENSO situation, we really need texas to cooldown and drop the heights down to something a little less suppressing. I didnt expect La Nina to be so strong as it apparently is, and thus it seems we may be pushing our threat window from the month of september to the 30 day period from 9/15 - 10/15. With the global modeling indicating above average heights over the NE US into Canada, major red flags are raised for a CONUS threat. It remains to be seen if the air will moisten enough over the gulf through the whole column as we've seen dry air being a big issue to date. With air piling up in the Caribbean, however, I suspect we'd get enough moistening to support a healthy tropical cyclone. Where it goes remains to be seen, but the ensemble means are advertising what has this year been rare thus far, a bit of longwave troughing over the central US. This encourages storms to ride up and out of the western Caribbean. The small scale features (short wave troughs in particular) are much too difficult to predicate this far out, but the pattern indicates we should see atleast one, possibly 3-4 storms coming north out of the Caribbean sea through mid October. As the eastern atlantic shuts down, and before the AEWs subside, we'll have several seed storms travel into the area and I suspect the action will move closer to home over the next 30-45 days. Add to that a conducive phase of the MJO and, well, those saying season is over (read: trolls) should stock up on the crow :)



Excellent post, I agree completely. To add to the post some, the dry air you talked about probably would not exist, since it came from subsidence from the high over Texas. However, with it getting pushed to the southwest, and the high over the Northern United States, I would think the atmosphere would be moist.
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Oh no.It seems winter wants to come early this year......I hate loooooong winters wen they don't include snow for our area(looks at 2011)
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I've been liking September for a Northern/Eastern gulf threat since July. Given the ENSO situation, we really need texas to cooldown and drop the heights down to something a little less suppressing. I didnt expect La Nina to be so strong as it apparently is, and thus it seems we may be pushing our threat window from the month of september to the 30 day period from 9/15 - 10/15. With the global modeling indicating above average heights over the NE US into Canada, major red flags are raised for a CONUS threat. It remains to be seen if the air will moisten enough over the gulf through the whole column as we've seen dry air being a big issue to date. With air piling up in the Caribbean, however, I suspect we'd get enough moistening to support a healthy tropical cyclone. Where it goes remains to be seen, but the ensemble means are advertising what has this year been rare thus far, a bit of longwave troughing over the central US. This encourages storms to ride up and out of the western Caribbean. The small scale features (short wave troughs in particular) are much too difficult to predicate this far out, but the pattern indicates we should see atleast one, possibly 3-4 storms coming north out of the Caribbean sea through mid October. As the eastern atlantic shuts down, and before the AEWs subside, we'll have several seed storms travel into the area and I suspect the action will move closer to home over the next 30-45 days. Add to that a conducive phase of the MJO and, well, those saying season is over (read: trolls) should stock up on the crow :)

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Quoting weatherguy03:


Could get some good training of rain cells by Sunday/Monday coming off the Alantic with this local Noreaster setting up. Could be some localized flooding, especially along the coast. You need to move closer to the beach!;)


I need to do alot of things...lol

The beach receives the lions share but I get mine as well. Usually more than enough to make me happy.
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Need to watch the tail of the stalled Front that extends thru S. Florida into the NW Caribbean.
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Quoting Levi32:
This is record cold. This is a big deal.


Local forecast (MI) - current temp 84. High Thursday only 60, that's 15 degrees below average. Frost advisories for Thurs & Fri nights, temps down into the 30's. Brrrrr. I think it's time to get the down comforter out of summer storage.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Or maybe Like this

Link

Link

Winds offshore in Fajardo
La pared looks OK


It does indeed.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


The beach is a tad too far away for me to make the drive. Probably 20 minutes by car and 12 miles as the crow flies.

I've been waiting awhile for a good NE/E/SE flow. If I recall it was 2006'ish a steady onshore flow setup and dumped a good 12" in my area.


Could get some good training of rain cells by Sunday/Monday coming off the Alantic with this local Noreaster setting up. Could be some localized flooding, especially along the coast. You need to move closer to the beach!;)
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Quoting mobhurricane2011:
He has alot of useful info he provides to this blog on his own without echoing anyone, but hey, if your gonna echo someone, Levi isn't a bad one to follow. Very bright person with alot of knowledge on the tropics


+1 :-)
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Quoting srada:


I doubt the caribbean system would eithier..is there even model support for that system? I havent been following the recent discussion on it..


The Caribbean system has been showing up on and off in the GFS runs for the past couple days. Climatologically favored place and time, but who really knows?
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Quoting weatherguy03:


LOL. I was down there today, two feet at best! Swell coming tomorrow.


The beach is a tad too far away for me to make the drive. Probably 20 minutes by car and 12 miles as the crow flies.

I've been waiting awhile for a good NE/E/SE flow. If I recall it was 2006'ish a steady onshore flow setup and dumped a good 12" in my area.
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Quoting ncstorm:


well okay, I will watch for both of us then!


lol, if a storm forms off the coast, I will watch it. However, while neither have formed, I am more focused on the potential Caribbean system.
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Quoting starbuck02:


Sounds like Levi's echo.
He has alot of useful info he provides to this blog on his own without echoing anyone, but hey, if your gonna echo someone, Levi isn't a bad one to follow. Very bright person with alot of knowledge on the tropics
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
St Augustine waves like this? Kidding of course.


Or maybe Like this (Rincon PR)

Link

Link

Winds offshore in Fajardo
La pared looks OK
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Quoting srada:


I doubt the caribbean system would eithier..is there even model support for that system? I havent been following the recent discussion on it..


Yes, the Caribbean system is gathering model support, but it will take a while for models to all fully latch on, considering it is still a while out.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like it's raining cats and dogs in Eastern Puerto Rico.



And the flood advisories are up.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

PRC037-053-069-103-122345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0431.110912T2049Z-110912T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-
449 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 447 PM AST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SO FAR ESTIMATED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES WERE BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES AND
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND LOW SPOTS IN
ROADWAYS. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1820 6582 1830 6565 1825 6561 1813 6577

$$

RAM
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

PRC095-109-151-122345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0430.110912T2044Z-110912T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-YABUCOA PR-
444 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
PATILLAS...MAUNABO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 438 PM AST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SO FAR ESTIMATED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES WERE BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES AND
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND LOW SPOTS IN
ROADWAYS. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6602 1812 6590 1802 6583 1796 6596

$$

RAM
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
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296. srada
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, I am worried about the Caribbean more than something off my coast. Anything that develops there is already entering cooler waters, and is insignificant. It wouldn't even move towards the coast more than likely.


I doubt the caribbean system would eithier..is there even model support for that system? I havent been following the recent discussion on it..
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Those waves are raging!

Link


LOL. I was down there today, two feet at best! Swell coming tomorrow.
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Quoting ncstorm:


dont you live in NC? You have the Euro, CMC and NOGAPS predicting development of something off your coast and you are worried about the caribbean system..okay my friend..

Yes, I am worried about the Caribbean more than something off my coast. Anything that develops there is already entering cooler waters, and is insignificant. It wouldn't even move towards the coast more than likely.
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Quoting starbuck02:


Sounds like Levi's echo.


I can't help we are monitoring the same thing. But guess what? So is The Weather Channel, AccuWeather, and several other weather sites...Its easy to see in the computer models.
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Quoting ElConando:


Nice knowing you St. Augustine!


Those waves are raging!

Link
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290. JLPR2
Looks like it's raining cats and dogs in Eastern Puerto Rico.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Tired of Maria... My prediction as an experienced Meteorologist..... you can correct me if wrong...



Here we can see Typhoon Maria... Almost Going Annular in the Caribbean sea, north of the islands...



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've seen some posts about potential subtropical development off the North Carolina coast in about 7-10 days. That is of little significant compared to what may be brewing in the Caribbean 10-15 days from now. Yes, I do realize that is a very long way away, and the important little details are to be ignored for the time being. HOWEVER, the computer models are beginning to come into agreement with a potential storm developing in the Western/Northwest Caribbean, due to high pressure farther north over the United States, and high pressure/subsidence creating from Irene's, Katia's, and Soon-to-be-Maria's cool wake. What this does is force upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Bahamas. In addition, with high pressure farther north, subsidence, which can be attributed to Don's death, conditions would be favorable for development.

The 12Z GFS has dropped the system it has shown for the past couple of runs, however it does show lower pressures near the Yucatan peninsula. Given the pattern, a hypothetical storm could take two tracks: 1.) West into the Yucatan peninsula, and then into the Bay of Campeche, before moving into Mexico. Or, which is a more likely track at this time, a track into the central Gulf of Mexico before being picked up northward, and then northeastward into Florida. I am not going to focus on intensity, since it is a long way out. However, given the pattern, it appears conditions would be favorable for intensification, with the only limiting factor being land interaction.

Just something to watch next week..


Sounds like Levi's echo.
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Quoting EasyRiderX:
I think Maria is still going west. Storms over her center now too.
no shes pretty much stationary and seems to be ready to get her act together and head out to sea
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Quoting EasyRiderX:
Did the hurricane hunters go into Maria today?


They canceled todays mission.
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I keep reading that a big storm will form in the west Caribbean. How can we be so sure?
Member Since: September 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
Quoting MtnWX10:


looks like dust from the fires to me imo


Oh. It looked like a dusting of snow to me. Sorry.
Member Since: September 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
I've seen some posts about potential subtropical development off the North Carolina coast in about 7-10 days. That is of little significant compared to what may be brewing in the Caribbean 10-15 days from now. Yes, I do realize that is a very long way away, and the important little details are to be ignored for the time being. HOWEVER, the computer models are beginning to come into agreement with a potential storm developing in the Western/Northwest Caribbean, due to high pressure farther north over the United States, and high pressure/subsidence creating from Irene's, Katia's, and Soon-to-be-Maria's cool wake. What this does is force upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Bahamas. In addition, with high pressure farther north, subsidence, which can be attributed to Don's death, conditions would be favorable for development.

The 12Z GFS has dropped the system it has shown for the past couple of runs, however it does show lower pressures near the Yucatan peninsula. Given the pattern, a hypothetical storm could take two tracks: 1.) West into the Yucatan peninsula, and then into the Bay of Campeche, before moving into Mexico. Or, which is a more likely track at this time, a track into the central Gulf of Mexico before being picked up northward, and then northeastward into Florida. I am not going to focus on intensity, since it is a long way out. However, given the pattern, it appears conditions would be favorable for intensification, with the only limiting factor being land interaction.

Just something to watch next week..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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