Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Off to my workshop today. Am loving being able to go in an hour later and to be able to leave school for a 'real' lunch. Miss my kids, but still get to see them and get a hug. They are totally confused! LOL, teacher there but not teaching them. Everyone have a wonderful and safe Tuesday.
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Quoting rkay1:
Yeah because 300+hrs model forecasts are accurate.  These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.



No, they're not accurate.

But they do give an indication of what could be in the offing in terms of conditions.

But every now and then, they do get pretty close on what happens.
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maria looks like a very large amplitude tropical wave with multiple centers. rookie at this. any opinions?
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Quoting Cotillion:


It's been on the news enough. I think it'd be more of a news item if it had hit further south. It's more of a news story as it happens less. NW Scotland is pretty used to these type of storms, though this was quite fierce.

I was on the south side of it, walking around York yesterday wasn't too bad though it was strong. I was basically at the cut off point - all trains going north were cancelled due to it being too problematic with the high winds.


True. Katia probably didn't really affect them in a serious way, which is great. If it had, it would have been posted.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

Copious amounts of rain continue to fall in PR with amounts already around 13 inches. Numerous flood warnings have been issued and I learned just now that some roads are impassable.



It's barely moving!

I figured you guys to be drying out by now, but it just sits and rains.
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Quoting rkay1:
lol, I just love when people get hyped up about 300+hr models.  We have enough problems getting a 5 day forecast cone narrowed down, let alone a system that doesn't exist.



It's a weather blog. People are discussing weather. No problem if it is 300+ hours out. Wishcasters will be wishcasters, do as I do, ignore them. But to try to stop people from posting what is on a model in a weather blog? Really. That's all I have to say on this.
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sw corner of puerto rico is getting heavy rain there is a bay there called phosphorus bay which when there is not a moon is one of the most amazing places ive seen that part of the island is very beautiful
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning 6z GFS back on board with the Caribbean disturbance this is 300hrs. out and initially develops it around the 19th. Also, develops two other waves out in the middle of the Atlantic. Link Loop



Saw this same system form in a model run I saw this past Sun. morning.

Developed it in the same place, but took it on a more eastern track up the east coast of FL and through the SE essentially along the Eastern side of the Appalachian chain.

Interesting though it developed it in almost the same place.
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Can someone clarify for me what is going to make Maria go North? Is it the trough that went thru Florida yesterday or is it that she is following the periphery of the high or is it a weakness between the highs? She hasn't moved much since yesterday am, but she is looking better today.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I have friends in the UK who also raise and show Papillons and belong to their email list. I've been surprised no one there has mentioned Katia. Normally they talk about the weather, especially storms and snow. I've seen pictures of some of your flooding, etc..


It's been on the news enough. I think it'd be more of a news item if it had hit further south. It's more of a news story as it happens less. NW Scotland is pretty used to these type of storms, though this was quite fierce.

I was on the south side of it, walking around York yesterday wasn't too bad though it was strong. I was basically at the cut off point - all trains going north were cancelled due to it being too problematic with the high winds.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Good morning all. To our friends in PR, can anyone provide us with your current Maria rainfall totals todate? You guys look you are getting pounded..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For the first time in several mornings, Maria's center of circulation is NOT exposed.

if there really is one
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Good morning.

Copious amounts of rain continue to fall in PR with amounts already around 13 inches. Numerous flood warnings have been issued and I learned just now that some roads are impassable.

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Since the previous mapping for 12Sept_12pmGMT :
20.5n66.0w, 20.6n67.0w, 20.8n67.1w, 21.2n67.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_13Sept_6amGMT_ATCF
20.3n66.1w, 20.6n67.0w, 20.8n67.1w, 21.1n67.4w, 21.4n67.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 12Sept_6mGMT and ending 13Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the long northwesternmost line-segment is the 13Sept_6amGMT straightline projection,
the coastline blob at 32.361n80.441w-BFT is the endpoint of the 13Sept_12amGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
the coastline blob at 35.69n75.721w-MEO is the endpoint of the 12Sept_6pmGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the island blob at 22.389n72.821w-MYG is the endpoint of the 12Sept_12pmGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

The aforementioned previous (unseen) straightline projections have been corrected*: ie derived from the most recent(13Sept_6amGMT)set of ATCFcoordinates

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 4mph(6.4k/h) on a heading of 328degrees(NNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over TopSailBeach,NorthCarolina ~11days1hour from now

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection. eg The re-evaluation&alteration of 20.5n66.0w to 20.3n66.1w also changed the concurrent straightline projection and its end point from the island dumbbell at 21.079n73.101w-IGA to the island blob at 22.389n72.821w-MYG.
Normally I choose to preserve the historicity of the mappings by using the endpoint from the most recent previous mapping on the new map, but I made corrections this time because of the 18hour span between maps.

And because I dislike "pulling a rabbit out of the hat", to see the branchings of straightline projections (including the IGAtoMYG shift) from TS.Maria's path, copy&paste
20.5n66.0w-20.6n67.0w, 20.5n66.0w-21.079n73.101w, iga, 20.3n66.1w-20.6n67.0w, 20.3n66.1w-22.389n72.821w, myg, 20.6n67.0w-20.8n67.1w, 20.6n67.0w-35.69n75.721w, meo, 20.8n67.1w-21.1n67.4w, 20.8n67.1w-32.361n80.441w, bft, 21.1n67.4w-21.4n67.6w, 21.1n67.4w-34.408n77.603w, 01nc into the GreatCircleMapper for more info...
...as well as a feel for why I don't post those previous branchings (or corrections) on the map.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Cotillion:


Bit more info:

"Tributes have been paid to a "selfless and loyal" hospice ambulance driver killed by a falling tree as the remnants of Hurricane Katia brought 80mph winds to Britain.
Volunteer George Brown, 68, from High Etherley, County Durham, was killed on Monday afternoon on the A688 between Staindrop and Bishop Auckland.
He was driving to collect patients on behalf of Butterwick Hospice in Bishop Auckland when the tree fell on to the ambulance."

Real shame, being killed trying to help others.


Bless him and his family. How sad. Makes you wonder sometimes why the good are taken.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

...MARIA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 67.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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Quoting Cotillion:
Katia's winds are slowly subsiding with a little bit of damage and one unfortunate fatality.

Still be pretty blustery today yet, though.


I have friends in the UK who also raise and show Papillons and belong to their email list. I've been surprised no one there has mentioned Katia. Normally they talk about the weather, especially storms and snow. I've seen pictures of some of your flooding, etc..
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Bus driver George Brown dies in County Durham after tree falls on vehicle
Lorry driver killed in three-vehicle smash on M54
Boy, 11, hospitalised after being hit by roof that blew off garage in Bradford

Hopefully no one else is hurt or worse.


Bit more info:

"Tributes have been paid to a "selfless and loyal" hospice ambulance driver killed by a falling tree as the remnants of Hurricane Katia brought 80mph winds to Britain.
Volunteer George Brown, 68, from High Etherley, County Durham, was killed on Monday afternoon on the A688 between Staindrop and Bishop Auckland.
He was driving to collect patients on behalf of Butterwick Hospice in Bishop Auckland when the tree fell on to the ambulance."

Real shame, being killed trying to help others.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Cotillion:
Katia's winds are slowly subsiding with a little bit of damage and one unfortunate fatality.

Still be pretty blustery today yet, though.


Bus driver George Brown dies in County Durham after tree falls on vehicle
Lorry driver killed in three-vehicle smash on M54
Boy, 11, hospitalised after being hit by roof that blew off garage in Bradford

Hopefully no one else is hurt or worse.
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The National Hurricane Center still lies on the weakest end of the intensity forecast, compared to all of the computer models. They lie at 55 knots (65 mph), while most models have it at 65-70 knots (75-80 mph). All of them bring it up to hurricane status though.

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Katia's winds are slowly subsiding with a little bit of damage and one unfortunate fatality.

Still be pretty blustery today yet, though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


She's barely even moved over the past couple of days.


And lashing Puerto Rico with rain. I hope she doesn't cause any mudslides or such. And it looks like Bermuda will be next when she finally decides to move on.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
TX13 and CRS, I think Maria's philosophy is 'watch what I can do'. She has been something to watch over the course of days.


She's barely even moved over the past couple of days.
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TX13 and CRS, I think Maria's philosophy is 'watch what I can do'. She has been something to watch over the course of days.
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Quoting swflurker:
Can I get the 6888 hr run?
How about the OVER 9000hr run?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, I'm starting to need the sugar rush myself.... may make a run to DD before I settle in to work...


Morning, Baha! Sending you some French Toast with lots of extra syrup. *G* We're in for another triple digit heat day. But Fall is coming...
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A mess of a storm....
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
For the first time in several mornings, Maria's center of circulation is NOT exposed.

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Quoting aislinnpaps:


<-- passes Rkay1 some coffee with extra sugar and donuts. A bit early for being harsh. Coolie's just saying what's possibly out there.
Hey, I'm starting to need the sugar rush myself.... may make a run to DD before I settle in to work...
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Good Morning all.
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Quoting rkay1:
Yeah because 300+hrs model forecasts are accurate.  These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.



<-- passes Rkay1 some coffee with extra sugar and donuts. A bit early for being harsh. Coolie's just saying what's possibly out there.
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Quoting rkay1:
Yeah because 300 hrs model forecasts are accurate. These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.

You must really like attacking people, lol. And besides check the link the storm develops in 6 days and with the trough over the east coast, the storm really has two ways to go North and then Northeast or North and then West depending on how strong it actually gets.
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Steering at the 850mb level over Maria for a pressure >1000mb and winds around 45kts or less...



...and wind shear of 20kts with 30kts approaching from the trough.

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Keep an eye on the Center of Maria as we get the first good pass of the visible satellite this morning, the NHC has the center at 21.6N 67.7W. I betch ya that is well removed from the convection that is to the south. Link Two things probably happening here: 1) Wind Shear from the approaching trough and 2) The steering in this area is weak. What will probably happen is the center will lift off to the NNW then North and eventually NE and build new convection around it leaving behind the old convection to persist over PR and eventually wane.
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300 hrs is like a dream but florida looks to be under those circles irene and lee most likely will be retired will there be another one? maria is pulling a surprise getting so close to puerto rico
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Another Hoboob (dust storm) in Phoenix on Sunday caused by collapsing thunder storm.
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Quoting thisishsyterical:
i think they better figure out whats gonna happen with maria before they say theres 2 new waves that havent even developed yey lol
LOL, well I'll admit I didn't see that stall occurring. By the looks of it PR is getting a lot of rain and winds.
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Good morning 6z GFS back on board with the Caribbean disturbance this is 300hrs. out and initially develops it around the 19th. Also, develops two other waves out in the middle of the Atlantic. Link Loop

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Good morning, all.

Britain braced for second day of storms bringing blackouts and transport chaos
Bus driver George Brown dies in County Durham after tree falls on vehicle
Lorry driver killed in three-vehicle smash on M54
Boy, 11, hospitalised after being hit by roof that blew off garage in Bradford

Britain hit by winds of up to 80mph

Thousands of homes across central England lose power

All high-speed ferries from Portsmouth to France are cancelled
Tour of Britain cycle race cancelled over safety fears
Planes blown off course while landing at Leeds Bradford International Airport


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2036158/Hu rricane-Katia-UK-Worst-storms-15-years-bring-black outs-chaos.html#ixzz1XpR5PoHe


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even though we are little more than half done it seems as if we are more than that. only thorn in that idea is its a la nina. might be quite a few to go
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Looks like our friends in P.R are getting hammered this morning in some areas. Also, looks like there was some potential Water spout action just S.E of Ponce with strong rotation in the area.

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Seriously, Maria! The power went out at my house...
Just peeking, see ya in the afternoon guys.
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Maybe trying to re-locate the center SW?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I wish it would just go about its northerly business, is all. All this hanging about and looping is not condusive to the comfort of those to the west of it.

I suppose the trough / front that's supposed to take it out is going to pick it up today.


yes,its supposed to,havent seen anything saying otherwise
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I wish it would just go about its northerly business, is all. All this hanging about and looping is not condusive to the comfort of those to the west of it.

I suppose the trough / front that's supposed to take it out is going to pick it up today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.