Nate almost a hurricane; Maria remains disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Tropical Storm Nate, and has found winds much stronger than the storm's satellite appearance would suggest. At 2:17 pm EDT, the aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1500 feet of 93 mph, which would ordinarily support upgrading Nate to a Category 1 hurricane. Surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were about 70 mph, suggesting that Nate is indeed very close to hurricane strength. However, latest visible satellite loops show that if Nate is a hurricane, it's only half of a hurricane. Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center, and the northern half of the storm almost cloud-free. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 140 miles to the northwest of the center of Nate, were just 28 mph at 3:50 pm EDT this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is keeping the northern half of the storm dry.

Nate will meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and the computer models are sharply divided on what happens early next week to the storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, potentially forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, our two best-performing models last year, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that a weak trough of low pressure expected to move across the U.S. early next week will be strong enough to turn Nate northwards towards an eventual landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.

Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.

The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.

Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" of rain fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a greater than 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The rain has ended in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has risen to 25.69', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is now spilling over the flood walls protecting the city, according to media reports. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts from Tropical Storm Lee and its remnants. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.69'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 4. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its previous record flood crest. The river is forecast to crest at 27.2' (green lines are the predictions.) Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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1977. StormHype
6:00 PM GMT on September 10, 2011
Quoting StormHype:


Well, you have to realize what the govt pays for these is outrageously over priced. Likely, they gave a contract to some company in DC connected with an insider to design and build custom ones for them. This happens all the time unfortunately. I can think of numerous ways these could be built cheap using the latest off-the-shelf technology (am an embedded system engineer with 20+ yrs experience.) PM if you want to collaborate and I will send my direct email.


Ok, I visited your blog and see what they pay to maintain these. OMG. Outrageous. I've seen them on rivers in N FL and it's old tech with too many large expensive mechanical components. So I can see it being high, but this is ridiculously high. ~$17K per year to maintain a gauge? WTF? Dummies are getting ripped off. Private sector could do this for probably less than $2k. Better yet, make it volunteer and give a tax break or something.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
1976. StormHype
5:54 PM GMT on September 10, 2011
Quoting Inyo:
I'm looking into how much stream gages and automated rain gages cost so I can try to figure out alternative ways of obtaining this life-saving data if our government is unable or unwilling to fund even this relatively tiny expenditure that saves lives. If this is the case, maybe we can find state, grant, or private funding to do something about this. I'm specifically looking at Vermont but this could be applicable anywhere.

Does anyone know how much a stream gage costs, how much one could cost, and how much an automated weather station (such as the Wunderground stations - are they mostly Davis weather stations?) cost. Perhaps there can be a more focused effort to bring more wunderground censors on line and perhaps even stream gages... I realize exact amounts of water can not be calculated without measuring hte stream bank but for warning of a flash flood, simply being able to see a dramatic rise in water level would be enough.

Ideas? I'll be posting about this soon on slowwatermovement.blogspot.com


Well, you have to realize what the govt pays for these is outrageously over priced. Likely, they gave a contract to some company in DC connected with an insider to design and build custom ones for them. This happens all the time unfortunately. I can think of numerous ways these could be built cheap using the latest off-the-shelf technology (am an embedded system engineer with 20+ yrs experience.) PM if you want to collaborate and I will send my direct email.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
1975. aspectre
3:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
13.4n55.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF
13.6n55.5w, 14.0n57.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Sept_12pmGMT and ending 9Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island blob at 13.92n60.89w-UVF is the endpoint of the straightline projection on the most recent*previous*mapping connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12mGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 17.3mph(27.9k/h) on a heading of 285.4degrees(WNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passing 7.8miles(12.5kilometres) south of Dominca ~15hours from now

Copy&paste bqn, pmv, 13.92n60.89w-uvf, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, 13.1n51.8w-13.2n53.7w, 13.2n53.7w-13.6n55.5w, 13.6n55.5w-14.0n57.0w, dom, 13.6n55.5w-15.095n61.354w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 9Sept_6amGMT)

* Correcting for the alteration of the endpoint of TropicalCyclone's previous path would also change the endpoint of its travel-speed, heading, and straightline projection... in this case, to Martinique rather than to St.Lucia as shown.
But I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1974. STLweatherjunkie
3:30 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting P451:
This was Nate 14 hours ago. Putting up a lone tower of -70C's.


Nate, Loop ending 8PM, Thursday

Now Nate is a storm that only has two small blobs of -55C cloud tops at best with the rest of the storm down in the -30s and -40s.


Nate, 945am, Friday

Healthy TS's have a large region of -70C's and in most cases some areas of -80C's - that translates to deep convection.

Nate has no deep convection. He doesn't even rival an afternoon thundershower in that respect.

Maria, although disorganized, has many -70C's and quite a decent patch of -80 to -85C tops. This is deep convection.






nate is still a noteworthy tropical storm, just because it isnt huge and doesnt have deep convection like maria does not mean it is about to die. Comparing the two storms is like comparing a elephant and a dog, the BOC is a favorable environment for small tropical disturbances to form and they can become strong.

I agree it has alot of dry air to deal with, and its nearly stationary movement doesnt help. But given its so small and the heat content in the gulf is so high, it would be foolish to just blow off the storm.
Member Since: September 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
1973. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:01 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:
For now... I wouldn't expect much of a northerly component to Maria for a while:



i thunk so to looking at that,why the models swap back west then?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1972. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:


There were a couple models hinting at a small system (may be a quick development) of a piece of energy in the stalled out front.

If it persists then it could at the very least become a meso-low.


Think i saw that on NOGAPS model a couple of days ago had it as a 1010mb going ENE/NE Across florida and up the east coast weakening to 1014mb
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1971. gordydunnot
2:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
No pressure drops in the gulf but Tampa still may get some nice thunderstorm action this afternoon evening.Comment for Maria these systems seem to fire nicely in the evenings but shear seems to pick back up in the daytime, Predict ull to the nw of Maria will hinder development today. Like Moonlight Cowboys take on Maria. Find it varying interesting to see how the models have shifted on Nate and Maria the last 24hrs. Uncertainty seems to be the rule. Back latter have a nice day all. Remember reverse my guess and you'll probably get it right. NHC rules most of the time. Last shared observation King Tutt still seems to be in charge from the Yucatan to somwhere northeastward towards Greenland, this has been for the last several years, I am starting to wonder if this is becoming a semipermanent weather feature. Like the big spot on Jupiter. At any rate for the U.S. I hope it keeps up.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1968. WxLogic
2:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
@63HR 12Z NAM:



Prod runs are not more in line withe the Parallel run that would replace it in 10 to 11 days.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4976
1967. help4u
2:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
They need funding for gauges.Funding is your money you pay in taxes just send in extra,problem solved.
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
1966. Matt74
2:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nice pic!
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
1965. AussieStorm
2:36 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting Inyo:


I don't see the article, can you please repost it? Thanks.

Sorry about that.

here
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1964. ecflweatherfan
2:36 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Dumb..ses on this blog need to stop with the stupid political crap and which news channel is better than the other. I wish admin would pay more attention to that. It has NOTHING to do with this blog. Wanna debate about those channels, go elsewhere. CNN and FNC and the others have blogs that you can argue those points.

As far as tropics are concerned, Nate looking more symmetrical this morning, albeit tiny. Maria is... eh, she is there (not much happening with her), although convection is present today moreso than yesterday. I am really interested to see what pans out path-wise with Maria, as it seems that a more southerly track would be probable, given her current state, but not so sure the NOGAPS is the right solution at this point, unless other models begin to line themselves up with that.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
1963. Inyo
2:35 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here is an article you can read.

Operating a basic stream gauge costs around $15,700 per year. Those with advanced measurement tools can cost nearly twice as much. The Geological Survey splits the bill at many gauges with dozens of partners, including state agencies and local governments.


I don't see the article, can you please repost it? Thanks.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
1961. AussieStorm
2:33 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting Inyo:
I'm looking into how much stream gages and automated rain gages cost so I can try to figure out alternative ways of obtaining this life-saving data if our government is unable or unwilling to fund even this relatively tiny expenditure that saves lives. If this is the case, maybe we can find state, grant, or private funding to do something about this. I'm specifically looking at Vermont but this could be applicable anywhere.

Does anyone know how much a stream gage costs, how much one could cost, and how much an automated weather station (such as the Wunderground stations - are they mostly Davis weather stations?) cost. Perhaps there can be a more focused effort to bring more wunderground censors on line and perhaps even stream gages... I realize exact amounts of water can not be calculated without measuring hte stream bank but for warning of a flash flood, simply being able to see a dramatic rise in water level would be enough.

Ideas? I'll be posting about this soon on slowwatermovement.blogspot.com

Here is an article you can read.

Operating a basic stream gauge costs around $15,700 per year. Those with advanced measurement tools can cost nearly twice as much. The Geological Survey splits the bill at many gauges with dozens of partners, including state agencies and local governments.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1959. WarEagle8
2:29 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Cluster of thunderstorms heading toward Tampa Bay.
I noticed that earlier. Do you see any spin/circulation in the loop?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
1958. AussieStorm
2:29 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
More reckless cost-cutting putting lives and property at risk. (Tipped off by a WU tweet):

USGS Nationwide List of Threatened Streamgages

376 is a lot, I hope they can get funding.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1957. Inyo
2:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
I'm looking into how much stream gages and automated rain gages cost so I can try to figure out alternative ways of obtaining this life-saving data if our government is unable or unwilling to fund even this relatively tiny expenditure that saves lives. If this is the case, maybe we can find state, grant, or private funding to do something about this. I'm specifically looking at Vermont but this could be applicable anywhere.

Does anyone know how much a stream gage costs, how much one could cost, and how much an automated weather station (such as the Wunderground stations - are they mostly Davis weather stations?) cost. Perhaps there can be a more focused effort to bring more wunderground censors on line and perhaps even stream gages... I realize exact amounts of water can not be calculated without measuring hte stream bank but for warning of a flash flood, simply being able to see a dramatic rise in water level would be enough.

Ideas? I'll be posting about this soon on slowwatermovement.blogspot.com
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
1956. Vlad959810
2:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting NativeSun:
Looks like the center of Maria is 13.8N 59.9 west and still moving west at 20 mph. Maria's track may end up being the same as the original track of Irene, to the south of PR and south of Hati crossing over east or central Cuba as a hurricane. I don't see the trough or front thats going to pull Maria NW being as strong as the GFS model forecast.

And the Leeward Islands as well
Member Since: July 14, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
1955. HurrMichaelOrl
2:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Could this be the System your talking about or is it to far off?



Aussie, that may be the system the nogaps was showing, is that next Tuesday? I was thinking it was something in the nearer timeframe though (today or tomorrow). That's why the blob in the Eastern Gulf got my attention. It could just be another cluster of thunderstorms though.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1128
1954. TampaSpin
2:27 PM GMT on September 09, 2011


Looks very confident of that turn!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1953. Neapolitan
2:25 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
More reckless cost-cutting putting lives and property at risk. (Tipped off by a WU tweet):

USGS Nationwide List of Threatened Streamgages

"The following streamgages have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. The primary reason for these actions is the lack of funding to support the continued operation of the streamgages. Funds for these streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. For those streamgages at risk for discontinuation, the current funding source has indicated that it can no longer fund the streamgage. Efforts are currently underway to identify another funding source for the operation of these streamgages; however, if no funding is identified, then these streamgages will have to be discontinued also."

Stream gages

See the whole entry here.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
1951. aspectre
2:22 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
13.4n55.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF
13.6n55.5w, 14.0n57.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Sept_12pmGMT and ending 9Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island blob at 13.92n60.89w-UVF is the endpoint of the straightline projection
on the most recent*previous*mapping
connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12mGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 17.3mph(27.9k/h) on a heading of 285.4degrees(WNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passing 7.8miles(12.5kilometres) south of Dominca ~15hours from now

Copy&paste bqn, pmv, 13.92n60.89w-uvf, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, 13.1n51.8w-13.2n53.7w, 13.2n53.7w-13.6n55.5w, 13.6n55.5w-14.0n57.0w, dom, 13.6n55.5w-15.095n61.354w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 9Sept_6amGMT)

* Correcting for the alteration of the endpoint of TropicalCyclone's previous path would also change the endpoint of its travel-speed, heading, and straightline projection...
...in this case, to Martinique rather than to St.Lucia as shown. But I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1950. Stormchaser2007
2:22 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
1949. moonlightcowboy
2:21 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Good morning, everyone! TGIF! :)


Maria's putting on a show for us, adding some deep convection, but still moving mostly within the low-level easterly flow. 14n is quite low, crossing into the Caribbean certainly effects the islands and increases the chances for a CONUS impact. She won't be in a hurry to move more northwards until she gains some intensity, imo.

Have a good day and weekend, all! :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1948. PrivateIdaho
2:21 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


What I would give for 50s and some nice rain right now. Warm/hot and muggy as usual here.


Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 09 Sep 7:53 MDT


Fair

46°F
(8°C) Humidity: 68 %
Wind Speed: calm

Barometer: 30.24 in (1021.30 mb)
Dewpoint: 36°F (2°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles


Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1947. AussieStorm
2:20 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but could that little blob well off the west coast of Florida be the system/storm that the nogaps was hinting at a couple days ago? It was showing another small storm NE of Nate just off the FL west coast, then moving across the peninsula and through the northern-most Bahamas.

Could this be the System your talking about or is it to far off?

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1946. ncstorm
2:18 PM GMT on September 09, 2011


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15659
1944. KingofNewOrleans
2:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting muddertracker:
"Nate" is really getting on my nerves. The biggest Texas tease ever! The 7 a.m. NHC track is just downright depressing, especially after the "hope" track of yesterday.


Even if Nate were to get close to Texas, it'll be the sheared side of the storm. More wind than rain. Really wouldn't do Texas any favors, just like Lee didn't.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
1943. WxLogic
2:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but could that little blob well off the west coast of Florida be the system/storm that the nogaps was hinting at a couple days ago? It was showing another small storm NE of Nate just off the FL west coast, then moving across the peninsula and through the northern-most Bahamas.


There were a couple models hinting at a small system (may be a quick development) of a piece of energy in the stalled out front.

If it persists then it could at the very least become a meso-low.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4976
1942. will40
2:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


that looks NNE?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


that looks NNE?



more like a wobble i think
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
1941. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
TS Nate in motion


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve, Loop


that looks NNE?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1939. VirginIslandsVisitor
2:13 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Good morning, everyone...just checking in on Maria. My other half is down on the bay pulling our boats out of the water, along with the other fishermen. Definitely not the calm before the storm right now!
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 626
1938. AussieStorm
2:13 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:



When you hold a position of authority, and you're often right, sadly you'll get criticized a lot, probably because people are jealous. Its crazy how often people criticize Dr. Masters on his own blog. He writes huge blogs, so yeah sometimes he might write a misprint or *GASP* make a mistake so people go crazy and question his ability... Why are people so darn critical of others???

Who was being critical of Dr. Masters?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1937. HurrMichaelOrl
2:12 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but could that little blob well off the west coast of Florida be the system/storm that the nogaps was hinting at a couple days ago? It was showing another small storm NE of Nate just off the FL west coast, then moving across the peninsula and through the northern-most Bahamas.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1128
1935. AussieStorm
2:10 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting P451:
This was Nate 14 hours ago. Putting up a lone tower of -70C's.


Nate, Loop ending 8PM, Thursday

Now Nate is a storm that only has two small blobs of -55C cloud tops at best with the rest of the storm down in the -30s and -40s.


Nate, 945am, Friday

Healthy TS's have a large region of -70C's and in most cases some areas of -80C's - that translates to deep convection.

Nate has no deep convection. He doesn't even rival an afternoon thundershower in that respect.

Maria, although disorganized, has many -70C's and quite a decent patch of -80 to -85C tops. This is deep convection.





Nate has probably used up all the TCHP in that part of the BOC also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
1934. sailingallover
2:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Hi All,
Boats on the hard in Grenada so not on much this year.
For those of us in the Leewards and PR Maria's going soak us as the Upper Level Low to our north that is shearing her is also going to enhance rainfall.

The pressure also dropped over night which bodes for strengthening and stronger winds.. use an extra line or 10 and batten down the hatches..
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
1933. NativeSun
2:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Looks like the center of Maria is 13.8N 59.9 west and still moving west at 20 mph. Maria's track may end up being the same as the original track of Irene, to the south of PR and south of Hati crossing over east or central Cuba as a hurricane. I don't see the trough or front thats going to pull Maria NW being as strong as the GFS model forecast.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
1930. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
Here's Nate IR Loop:
Link


Looks to be heading north?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1928. MarathonZiggy
2:07 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Sorry if this was posted earlier but has anybody noticed Lexion Avilia's 5AM discussion about Katia ?

Note the last paragraph. I found it amusing.

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES ....

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING .......

NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE.


He has history of adding some comedy to his discussions when appropriate.

Zig
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
1927. Stormchaser2007
2:07 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
Maria is loving the Kelvin wave.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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