Nate almost a hurricane; Maria remains disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Tropical Storm Nate, and has found winds much stronger than the storm's satellite appearance would suggest. At 2:17 pm EDT, the aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1500 feet of 93 mph, which would ordinarily support upgrading Nate to a Category 1 hurricane. Surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were about 70 mph, suggesting that Nate is indeed very close to hurricane strength. However, latest visible satellite loops show that if Nate is a hurricane, it's only half of a hurricane. Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center, and the northern half of the storm almost cloud-free. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 140 miles to the northwest of the center of Nate, were just 28 mph at 3:50 pm EDT this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is keeping the northern half of the storm dry.

Nate will meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and the computer models are sharply divided on what happens early next week to the storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, potentially forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, our two best-performing models last year, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that a weak trough of low pressure expected to move across the U.S. early next week will be strong enough to turn Nate northwards towards an eventual landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.

Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.

The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.

Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" of rain fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a greater than 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The rain has ended in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has risen to 25.69', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is now spilling over the flood walls protecting the city, according to media reports. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts from Tropical Storm Lee and its remnants. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.69'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 4. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its previous record flood crest. The river is forecast to crest at 27.2' (green lines are the predictions.) Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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jajaja!!!!!!!! chupacabra no creo que se llame asi

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol
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The blog will only see the one outlier and think----->

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Quoting aquak9:

chupacabra

lol
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Quoting aquak9:

chupacabra
merci!
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting PcolaDan:

I don't remember seeing any warnings. Not that I catch them all.

NWS had it on their home page yesterday about minor communication failures......
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Quoting Fresca:


Is anyone here buying this horribly fake troll?


Looks like they write like they speak - broken Spanglish ?
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I just have a quick question....why do people post old graphs?
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Quoting JNCali:
commo se dis "troll" en espanole??

chupacabra
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Dewey - Hurricane Models gone into windshield wiper mode?
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Maria ay maria she coming out of that coma

Quoting TropicalGenesis:
Maria looks to be picking up some MOJO tonight. Appears she will be in better form tomorrow morning after taking a beating today. This is another system that we cannot let our guard down in PR and it looks like the Bahamas will be getting another blow. Then it is anyone's guess.

I see Maria acting like a Hugo and heading to the Northeast coast of PR and ending up missing DR and heading towards South Carolina land full but it all depends on the system predicted to move through the midwest.

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Quoting interstatelover7165:
LOL

My thoughts exactly XD
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I am thinking it was probably caused by one of the coronal mass ejections that have been Earth-directed for the past week.... We'll most likely come to find that as the cause in the morning.

I don't remember seeing any warnings. Not that I catch them all.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I honestly would say that Florida has been the best place over the last several years. Unlike most of the country, we are getting less extreme weather/flooding events than we used to. I remember when I grew up,( and yes I do remember correctly because I was always a science freak even as a little boy) that we used to have a lot more extreme rainfall events and we got more severe thunderstorms.

Now we get less of both, whereas the rest of the country seems to be getting more. We also are even getting less tropical systems than we used to.


Maybe. But South Florida has its other drawbacks as a place to live. For one, it is getting cost prohibitive.

Baha - Canada... No, too darn cold and full of snow. Unless I am missing an area that doesn't get that way in the winter, which is possible.
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Quoting TuMama:


No I have never had troll behavior what is in your mind?
OW, really sorry about that i had somebody with a very similar name to you on my Ignore list.
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Quoting aquak9:

when laser beams come out of your eyes

no really, a solar flair of sorts, an eruption from the Sun.
LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks. I must have missed it. I was otherwise occupied at the time. Just trying to catch up.


Oh please...you were only on death's door. Don't be so dramatic....I was already making room for that antique silverware you promised me.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
Maria looks to be picking up some MOJO tonight. Appears she will be in better form tomorrow morning after taking a beating today. This is another system that we cannot let our guard down in PR and it looks like the Bahamas will be getting another blow. Then it is anyone's guess.

I see Maria acting like a Hugo and heading to the Northeast coast of PR and ending up missing DR and heading towards South Carolina land full but it all depends on the system predicted to move through the midwest.

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Quoting TuMama:


What is coronal mass ejection?

A coronal mass ejection is when the Sun ejects a large amount of material from its outer atmosphere, or "corona". :)
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Doctors in the Atlantic Ocean Hospital are trying to revive MARIA she making a comeback...Fishes are concerned
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Quoting aquak9:

when laser beams come out of your eyes

no really, a solar flair of sorts, an eruption from the Sun.
lol!
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TY waterpup
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Quoting Grothar:


But a moving blob.


As in, we're gonna get soaked this weekend. Wonder if this'll hold together long enough to get into the GoM? That'd be quite interesting.... And Grothar saw it first!


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Quoting RussianWinter:


Forgive me, but what's the "family emergency plan" in case of a power outage?


Would be the same as if it was an earthquake. They stress planning the "what if" your family was separated. How would you communicate (pick a relative out of the area) where would you meet up? I only lived in Southern CA about six years. But we had "earthquake" kits in the cars, you had to make one to send to school for your kids, and at home. It's really just planning for any diaster. But in CA it's with earthquakes in mind, just like our Hurricane planning here in FL.
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Quoting TuMama:


What is coronal mass ejection?

when laser beams come out of your eyes

no really, a solar flair of sorts, an eruption from the Sun.
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Quoting Fresca:


Is anyone here buying this horribly fake troll?

Yah if i rember she had some very trollish behvior that why i have her on ignore.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Forgive me, but what's the "family emergency plan" in case of a power outage?
My thoughts exactly! And since they are encouraging everyone to stay off the roads it could make it even more difficult?!
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting Dakster:


The Central US had nasty tornados and floods this year too... Try again.


I honestly would say that Florida has been the best place over the last several years. Unlike most of the country, we are getting less extreme weather/flooding events than we used to. I remember when I grew up,( and yes I do remember correctly because I was always a science freak even as a little boy) that we used to have a lot more extreme rainfall events and we got more severe thunderstorms.

Now we get less of both, whereas the rest of the country seems to be getting more. We also are even getting less tropical systems than we used to.


It is quite strange, because, severe thunderstorms, extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones are all quite common historically in Florida, especially heavy rain events and tropical cyclones, but they are becoming less frequent, at least that has been the recent trend.
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The CCKW may help Maria, but first it will hurt it. From the paper Dr. M links to:

"The convectively suppressed phase (red contour) of the composited CCKW moves eastward ahead of the convectively active phase (blue-dashed contour), and is observed to weaken local convection over the Atlantic ITCZ and tropical African region."
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Okay, I must have missed this one.

Someone w/the screen name GrotharsFamily said he had passed away. But I guess he was just passing some gas away, instead.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Maria is still a TS:

AL, 14, 2011090900, , BEST, 0, 132N, 537W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 100, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, S,




good mb drop it look like
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Quoting Dakster:


The Central US had nasty tornados and floods this year too... Try again.
Canada?

Quoting TX2FL:
Hi Everyone,

I'm evacuated from the remnants of Lee, the evacuated us, 65,000 of us in the Wyoming Valley at Wilkes Barre, PA. The river is expected to crest at 40.8 feet and the levee protecting us is at 41 feet. Praying it doesnt go higher, every estimate since yesterday has been higher and higher. My husband and mother in law didn't want to leave, didnt understand that this was a mandatory evacuation. One of the floodgates at a main road is starting to fail, the river is now at 38.9 feet. Hope they fix it. That's all..just an update. Hoping that Maria and/or NATE do not affect us in the end of their tropical lives.
Stay safe!

Quoting Grothar:
Anybody know what that feature is above Puerto Rico>

img src="">
Twave that came off Africa in front of Maria. Can't remember if it was ever invested or not.
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Quoting TuMama:
Is power outages a possible terror attack I saw on news there is a new threat.
I am thinking it was probably caused by one of the coronal mass ejections that have been Earth-directed for the past week.... We'll most likely come to find that as the cause in the morning.
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Quoting Bielle:


Could you people find a sports blog, please.
Does it really bother you that much?
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Quoting aquak9:

It was not really his family, Tu. It was a mean person using a fake screen name. A Troll.


Okay, I must have missed this one.
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Quoting TuMama:
Is power outages a possible terror attack I saw on news there is a new threat.


They are denying this is a terrorist attack...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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