Nate almost a hurricane; Maria remains disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is in Tropical Storm Nate, and has found winds much stronger than the storm's satellite appearance would suggest. At 2:17 pm EDT, the aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1500 feet of 93 mph, which would ordinarily support upgrading Nate to a Category 1 hurricane. Surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were about 70 mph, suggesting that Nate is indeed very close to hurricane strength. However, latest visible satellite loops show that if Nate is a hurricane, it's only half of a hurricane. Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center, and the northern half of the storm almost cloud-free. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 140 miles to the northwest of the center of Nate, were just 28 mph at 3:50 pm EDT this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is keeping the northern half of the storm dry.

Nate will meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and the computer models are sharply divided on what happens early next week to the storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, potentially forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, our two best-performing models last year, the GFS and ECMWF, predict that a weak trough of low pressure expected to move across the U.S. early next week will be strong enough to turn Nate northwards towards an eventual landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria barely survived as a tropical storm today, but is now making a bit of a comeback. Satellite loops show that Maria has been badly ripped up by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it. The low-level center has been exposed to view most of the day, and surface arc-shaped clouds have been racing away from the storm to the west this afternoon, indicating that dry air has been getting into Maria's thunderstorms and disrupting the storm. However, the areal coverage and intensity of Maria's thunderstorms have increased a little in the past two hours. Maria is passing close to buoy 41040, which measured sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 2:50 pm EDT.

Wind shear is predicted to fall to the low range on Friday as Maria approaches the Lesser Antilles. In addition, as I noted in this morning's post, Maria will be encountering an atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is currently passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. I believe Maria will continue to organize and arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds. The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is on the high end of what is possible, and I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands--assuming passage over Puerto Rico and the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic does not significantly disrupt the storm. A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it.

The latest computer model runs have been trending more southwards, and the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahama Islands are all at high risk of a direct hit by Maria. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have once Maria approaches the U.S. East Coast. Most of the models foresee that Maria will turn north before arriving at Florida, and potentially threaten North Carolina, Bermuda, or Canada. The latest run of the GFDL model, though, brings Maria through the Bahamas to a point just 100 miles southeast of Miami as a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. While this forecast is an outlier, and it is more likely that Maria will turn north before reaching Florida, it will be another two days before we will have a fair degree of confidence on when Maria will curve to the north.

Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" of rain fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a greater than 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The rain has ended in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has risen to 25.69', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is now spilling over the flood walls protecting the city, according to media reports. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 2. Seven-day precipitation amounts from Tropical Storm Lee and its remnants. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.69'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 4. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 19' over flood stage, and more than 9' above its previous record flood crest. The river is forecast to crest at 27.2' (green lines are the predictions.) Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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1527. 3211976
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1526. Bielle
Quoting Grothar:
This is the town where our home is. Remember, the river is going to crest tonight, This is just from the rain.



Scary, even if it is, for many, just "stuff" that is lost, and not lives. Stuff helps define who you have been, who you are and who you might be. When all the physical history of a life floats away, is drowned, or is eaten by mold and fungus, it is hard to find a clear path again to self.
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TS.Maria's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 8Sept_6amGMT and ending 9Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island dumbbell at 13.46n61.166w-svd is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 20.3mph(32.7k/h) on a heading of 276.7degrees(W)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over Dennery,St.Lucia ~16&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste bqn, pmv, 13.46n61.166w-svd, 13.2n47.3w-13.0n50.2w, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, 13.1n51.8w-13.2n53.7w, 13.2n53.7w-13.4n55.5w, uvf, 13.2n53.7w-13.92n60.89w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 9Sept_12amGMT)
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1524. JLPR2
Quoting HrDelta:


I'm turning in now, but the point should be made that where the center is, is extremely unclear. Hell, there's a decent chance that there isn't one, and we have a Dolly-esque system here.


There is a LLC, I have no doubt about that, but there is a really good chance that it is open to the south.
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Quoting HrDelta:


I'm turning in now, but the point should be made that where the center is, is extremely unclear. Hell, there's a decent chance that there isn't one, and we have a Dolly-esque system here.

If we have an open wave, chances it will continue W because of the trade winds, through to the northwest Caribbean and redevelop are pretty good. I'll check tomorrow. Goodnight all.
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1522. JLPR2
Nate's convection is really shallow.


Compare it to Maria's.
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1521. HrDelta
Quoting JLPR2:


That's the satellite's idea of where the center is, not always accurate.


I'm turning in now, but the point should be made that where the center is, is extremely unclear. Hell, there's a decent chance that there isn't one, and we have a Dolly-esque system here.
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1520. JLPR2
Surprisingly models shifted east, to the NE of PR.


Now to wait for the long awaited WNW turn. xD
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1519. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Maria is north of the forecastpoint.


That's the satellite's idea of where the center is, not always accurate.
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1518. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:
Funny to see these two with the same numbers.

09/0615 UTC 13.8N 55.6W T2.5/2.5 MARIA
09/0615 UTC 19.9N 92.0W T2.5/2.5 NATE
Maria is north of the forecastpoint.
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1517. JLPR2
Funny to see these two with the same numbers.

09/0615 UTC 13.8N 55.6W T2.5/2.5 MARIA
09/0615 UTC 19.9N 92.0W T2.5/2.5 NATE
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Big blackout in southern California. 2 million with no power.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1515. Bielle
Quoting defdogz:


Was gonna say that, but had to step away from my desk. ("We have to go outside. Now.")



Not a fan of ketchup on fries. Tartar sauce is OK, though!

'Night, all. Turn the lights off when you leave.


Quebec turns it into "poutine": gravy and cheese curd on fries. It look so awful I have never had the courage to try it.
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1514. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
This is the town where our home is. Remember, the river is going to crest tonight, This is just from the rain.

OMG
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1513. 7544
yeap looks like maria is blowing up in dmax now the euro o does not agree with gfs and takes her just a bit further west before she tuns
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Quoting 7544:
eruo?
What language are you speaking?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1511. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Center has to be closer then


That would be interesting since the buoy is at 14.6N.

Or even more, what if the pressure falls below 1005mb in the buoy? O.o
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1510. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


Exactly. Pressure is down to 1005mb 83miles to the NE of the center. O.o
Center has to be closer then
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1509. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Uh WTF!


Exactly. Pressure is down to 1005mb 83miles to the NE of the center. O.o
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1508. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, Maria is a mystery.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.8 F

Uh WTF!
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Tilt your head a little to the left.


It's a near perfect hurricane symbol!
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1506. 7544
eruo?
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1505. JLPR2
Well now, Maria is a mystery.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.8 F

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Just heard a large, prop-driven plane depart Keesler in Biloxi. Odd. They wouldn't launch a second recon into Nate with one in the system, would they?
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1503. JLPR2
Maria is firing intense convection, but not sure if there is actually a closed LLC.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Ok, that's bizarre. I just got sprinkled on, here in eastern Missouri, from weather that's coming from the wrong direction. We NEVER get rain from the northeast here. (Well, hardly ever. I think it did it when Dennis drifted past us.)

So I look at the Eastern US Infrared loop to see what it is...

Link

Am I actually being sprinkled on by some part of Lee? There's certainly a low there.
Weird. Too bad we didn't get any real rain. We're in a drought here too. Just not the epic proportions of Texas' drought.


Yes, it is the remnants of Lee and it is pretty unusual for us to get rain from that direction and I agree, we do need the rain.
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MARIA = 2009 ERIKA
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Quoting 7544:
cmc shifts west again will the others follow ?


GFDL and HWRF shift right
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1498. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Good to see you too Gro. Life is calling big time. Just started a cabinetry design business a couple weeks ago, needed a new car "I HATE car shopping". Toughiness rules for now, ciao.


Good Luck with your new business. Times are tough.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
1497. Grothar
This is the town where our home is. Remember, the river is going to crest tonight, This is just from the rain.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


That's un-American!

Where you are you should be an expert:) I went to college up there from Kansas. Year of the dam break & big flood.
I was amazed. They served pototes 3 or 4 differnt ways at every meal. Moms from there so I knew about the potatoes, but It was differnt. We used bread or biscuts & gravy. They used potatoes. (Now my favorite)
Got to go up & see the potato sheds, thats not the right word. They were amazing! Went on snow mobils way up in the mountians & Was amazed when I wrecked it & tried to stand up in the snow & sank to my waist! Tried to Ski but kept going down the mountian backwards. Came home & designed some "Ski Kansas" T Shirts with Yucca, Cactus & All.
See, I said "snow" twice this is weather related:) OK, not the right weather Sorry
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1495. 7544
cmc shifts west again will the others follow ?
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1494. Grothar
This is only one small part and the rivers haven't crested yet. shut the music off, it is annoying.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting winter123:
Everything on satellite indicates to me that Maria has reformed further north. Almost the exact same thing Irene did, in the exact same place! With the same forecast track. I am not liking this one bit.
Link (hit Trop Points to see it seems to be all southerly winds over the forecast points!



Just looked at nearly every loop format.......i'm not sure where the COC is at now...my guess would be further west than the main blog which has been the position all day!
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1492. JLPR2
Interesting, according to the NHC, Maria is gaining latitude slowly.

2:00 AM AST Fri Sep 9
Location: 13.4°N 55.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
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1491. Grothar
Quoting ElConando:


Is it 1993 Mississippi river flood bad?


It is very bad, some of the towns may be under 20 feet of water. There are thousands of people stranded on the highways. No way to get to them. Most of the midwest is flat. The area up there is very mountainous. The valley areas are being hit very hard. They have evacuated a couple of hundred thousand people already and they expect more rain this week. It will be catastrophic in many places. The topography is very different there. They were mostly unprepared for it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
1490. JLPR2
Quoting winter123:
Everything on satellite indicates to me that Maria has reformed further north. Almost the exact same thing Irene did, in the exact same place! With the same forecast track. I am not liking this one bit.
Link (hit Trop Points to see it seems to be all southerly winds over the forecast points!


Buoys reports dont support that. Still ENE winds in one and in the other ESE, the center is south and in between them.
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Ok, that's bizarre. I just got sprinkled on, here in eastern Missouri, from weather that's coming from the wrong direction. We NEVER get rain from the northeast here. (Well, hardly ever. I think it did it when Dennis drifted past us.)

So I look at the Eastern US Infrared loop to see what it is...

Link

Am I actually being sprinkled on by some part of Lee? There's certainly a low there.
Weird. Too bad we didn't get any real rain. We're in a drought here too. Just not the epic proportions of Texas' drought.
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Quoting gugi182:
Will NATE be a MAJOR HURRICANE?

A. YES
B. NO

Will it go into Texas and help alleviate the sever drought and if so i hope Texas gets rain but i don't wish them a hurricane just rain so it could help the wildfires


Based on what I saw on TWC (Yeah yeah, I know, but I don't have the time to spend 200 hours looking at models, steering charts, etc) it seems like itll either drift west (if its weaker), or get caught up by one of the troughs and move NNE (if its stronger). But then if it feels the trough, itll get shear and weaken then lose it's steering again! This storm could be a potential forecasting nightmare, but it seems due to the TX ridge, it will not threaten TX. Either northeastern gulf coast, or southern gulf coast of mexico. Any thoughts on this??

edit: Going to vote no due to tangling with troughs and dry air, and cold water upwelling due to sitting in place
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Everything on satellite indicates to me that Maria has reformed further north. Almost the exact same thing Irene did, in the exact same place! With the same forecast track. I am not liking this one bit.
Link (hit Trop Points to see it seems to be all southerly winds over the forecast points!
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Quoting Grothar:


Leave it to you to catch that! Wondered where you have been. Glad to see you are back.


Good to see you too Gro. Life is calling big time. Just started a cabinetry design business a couple weeks ago, needed a new car "I HATE car shopping". Toughiness rules for now, ciao.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Agree which would favor a more Westerly movement than NHC is showing IMO!


I'm in agreement on a more westward track than currently indicated. No way in hell does the system gain 5 degrees of latitude before reaching 65 degrees west given the incredibly fast steering flow the system is currently caught in and will continue in during the next 24 hours or so. In fact, it seems the main core of Maria is now further out west around 56 to 58 west tonight.
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Quoting Grothar:


Skye, have you been following the flooding in the Northeast? It is really being under-reported. It is enfolding to be one of the most catastropic flooding they have ever had. If you could find info on it, it could be of interest. The situation is getting worse by the hour. They expect thousand of homes and businesses to be destroyed.


Is it 1993 Mississippi river flood bad?
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1483. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Skye, have you been following the flooding in the Northeast? It is really being under-reported. It is enfolding to be one of the most catastropic flooding they have ever had. If you could find info on it, it could be of interest. The situation is getting worse by the hour. They expect thousand of homes and businesses to be destroyed.


Saw at least 2 died. Part of DC is flooded, along with a large swath of NE. Some people still don't have power after Irene..one of the bigger power companies.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


As far as I know, it's air coming off of the mountain range down south across the border. It's up pretty high and it's also pretty warm, so it rides along up in the troposphere minding its own business. Meanwhile the great vast hot plate of Texas warms air at the surface that tries to rise. But it can't, because there's this big stable mass on top. This is why Steve McCauley up at WFAA is always talking about 'The Cap.' It prevents convection from working up to a high enough altitude where it's cool enough for water to condense into rain drops.

The air that rises has to go some place, so thanks to the coriolis effect it spirals down out towards the edge in a clockwise fashion.

In other words, if you took a few thousand feet off of those mountains, the ridge might not show up as often.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

This info is totally amazing! And I actually understand a lot of it. Also the graphs below were great.
All I know is it almost always rains during the livestock shows at the fair. Do you think its all the cows burping & passing gas, like apperntly the goverment does:)
I do the fairboard & 4-H thing, 26yrs now. Check in is Fri & Have to judge classes on Sat. So it WILL rain in our part of Missouri this weekend! We need it too, so I am willing to judge wet goats (phew) etc.
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Plant evapotranspiration and drought paper....interesting read....I'm out.
Link
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting TampaSpin:


We gotta another system forming behind MARIA!


I bet I know where it will go.
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1479. defdogz
Quoting PrivateIdaho:

Jinx!!


Was gonna say that, but had to step away from my desk. ("We have to go outside. Now.")

Quoting Bielle:


Canadians put vinegar on chips (french fries); the Dutch put mayonnaise; in Belize, I was given lime juice; and in the USA, kechup, only kechup (hate the stuff!).


Not a fan of ketchup on fries. Tartar sauce is OK, though!

'Night, all. Turn the lights off when you leave.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just shows how poorly organized the system is and would suggest more that this no longer has a defined closed surface circulation and may be a vigorous tropical wave.


Agree which would favor a more Westerly movement than NHC is showing IMO!
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1477. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:
Sweet dreams everybody.



Night! may you sleep with Maria and TWs.
What a nightmare! XD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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