1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1236 - 1186

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

1236. SPLbeater
11:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Maria building heavy thunderstorms on north and NE sides, mayve a little intensification likely. doubt she will weaken beyond TS, but hey everything possible...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
1235. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:36 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting 69Viking:


I'm interested in how his pretty fast (not rapid yet) intensification is going to affect his eventual path.


saw a loop,looked like Nate took a ne jog,from s or se earlier today
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
1234. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:35 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting rushisaband:


I look at it more like dogging NBC. I sure do miss Nicole Mitchell. She was part time at TWC and in the AF Reserves flying with the hurricane hunters. Very easy on the eyes too


Anyone know if Nicole Mitchell is pilot or co-pilot? Shes is a AFR Captain,and am guessing co-pilot?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
1233. onthescene
9:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
New Blog!
Member Since: October 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1232. CaribBoy
9:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Caner:
New Blog...


good!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1231. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Looks like we will be making up for lack of hurricanes so far.

- Irene
- Katia
- Nate? (likely)
- Maria? (possibly, once in the Bahamas)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31863
1230. UKHWatcher
9:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting frostynugs:


That depression was found hanging out in warm waters with it's COC exposed. Despite the exposed COC, it's death toll is already at 1.


I'd heard it's water table was well below normal for what was expected? Fires had been raging throughout the night until it was 100% contained and choked.
Member Since: September 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
1229. Dakster
9:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting seasntrees:


You slay me! :)


What do you suppose they were doing in that apartment?

Studying biology or testing their chemistry?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
1228. Caner
9:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
New Blog...
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1227. SWLACajun
9:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting frostynugs:


That depression was found hanging out in warm waters with it's COC exposed. Despite the exposed COC, it's death toll is already at 1.


Actually the story I heard was the warm waters had escaped and the basin was dry....reason unknown. Also this depression was a bit on the wobbly side having sucked in some bad stuff earlier, making it pretty weak but deadly still.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1226. Msuknotmet
9:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

I'm starting to get used to the hatched white thingy over my head...




That just made me laugh! (Don't like that track at all)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
1225. skook
9:23 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Athens Pa


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 365
1224. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31863
1223. Caner
9:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting islander101010:
yea if your in the right front quadrant when nate makes landfall could be in for it


Um... I could dream... I think that would be a little further off than tomorrow.

I have already been through the eyewall of: David, Hugo, Fran, Georges, Ivan, (twice), Katrina, Rita and Gustav... With a near misses on Andrew and Emily.

So whatever develops, i doubt Nate holds any horrors for me.

Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1222. frostynugs
9:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Police: Arkansas meteorologist found asleep in tub next to dead man


Maybe someone was "Tropically Depressed" ?


That depression was found hanging out in warm waters with it's COC exposed. Despite the exposed COC, it's death toll is already at 1. Plenty of snow was also reported.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 227
1220. islander101010
9:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Caner:


?
yea if your in the right front quadrant when nate makes landfall could be in for it
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4491
1219. CaribBoy
9:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
I wouldn't rule out some decent blows up of convection as it interact with those islands, and strenghtens by that time!!! Models are good at many things, they are extremely useful to help predict things.. BUT they WILL NEVER REPLACE HUMAN SKILLS!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1218. BahaHurican
9:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
This also looks like to bring some rainy weather to us over the weekend...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
1217. Ameister12
9:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I hope Levi is aware of this. LOL.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4938
1216. Caner
9:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting islander101010:
so many untreated crazy people out there nowadays just look at this blog! boc spin could be your worst nightmare tomorrows friday!


?

No, my worst nightmare involves a witch, a bunch of sexually depraved gnomes, and an insane Mohel with a tiny guillotine.

Can't speak as to the rest of the comment though...
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1215. CaribBoy
9:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
ALSO DON'T FORGET MARIA COULD INTERACT WITH SOME OF THE LARGER ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LIKE MARTINIQUE DOMINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE... THAT CAN CHANGE THE TRACK LOCALLY!!!! IT HAPPENED WITH 1995 IRIS AND MARILYN..
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1214. seasntrees
9:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Police: Arkansas meteorologist found asleep in tub next to dead man


Maybe someone was "Tropically Depressed" ?


You slay me! :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1213. Caner
9:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
WOW.


It's just planar distortion from extrapolating a spherical map surface to a flat, 2 dimensional map.

happens on all flat maps of the globe.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1212. islander101010
9:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
Katia looks better...wonder if she has a shot at 100mph before its all said and done?
doubt it but nate does
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4491
1211. CaribBoy
9:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
I'VE SEEN WEAK SYSTEMS MAKING SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NW!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1210. WeatherNerdPR
9:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

I'm starting to get used to the hatched white thingy over my head...



3rd time I've been in the cone this year. lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
1209. islander101010
9:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Caner:


Depressed?

No.

Apparently, he had a *very* good time.
so many untreated crazy people out there nowadays just look at this blog! boc spin could be your worst nightmare tomorrows friday!
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4491
1208. bigwes6844
9:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting P451:


Katia spread DOOM across the arctic!

That's really going to screw up the steering flow.

how
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2576
1207. Clearwater1
9:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting wxobsvps:
A depression making such a sharp turn to the nw seems odd

If you're right, and as a depression it does not make the sharp right turn, but a gradual turn, then it heads perhaps into Hispaniola and over Cuba as a weak system. And in best case scenario, gets shredded by the high terrain. Bad part of that of course, it could be a rain maker for Haiti. If it does not turn at all, whole other ball game.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
1206. WeatherNerdPR
9:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting P451:


Maria spread DOOM across the arctic!

That's really going to screw up the steering flow.


It was Katia who spread the doom...lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
1205. bigwes6844
9:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Will nate have a chance to go to TX this time? they ned it but if it goes slow like this it may become a major hurricane if it did hit texas. GFS showing a little love for texas.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2576
1204. SWLACajun
9:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting mobiledave:


My message was to those seeking immediate information like the lady that wanted to pick up her boat from Galveston.

I like reading this blog and have learned a lot about hurricanes in the process. But I reiterate that this is not a place that should be used as guidance for people trying to make immediate decisions.

By the way, I have an M.S. in Accountancy and will soon sit for the CPA exam. I would not call myself qualified to give anyone on here tax advice until I have a job doing so.



From a person with a degree in Accountancy and have sat once for the CPA, just never had to pursue it further due to great jobs, I can tell you that you cannot get/use your CPA until you have so many hours working in a related field. So.....how can you soon sit for the exam and not be able to give tax advice 'until you have a job doing so'? Just been a perpetual student and never worked in the field? Hmmmm. I have worked many years for CPA firms as well as for refineries in accounting and I think I know enough about taxes I could give some pretty answers to some tax questions.

Point is letters behind your name do not tell all. Book learning is great but life experiences count for a heck of a lot more. Try learning from some of these on this blog and you will be enriched.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1202. CaribBoy
9:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


That's normal : distances are shorter at those very high lattitudes!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1201. SPLbeater
9:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Katia looks better...wonder if she has a shot at 100mph before its all said and done?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
1200. WeatherNerdPR
9:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Dakster:


WTF?

IKR?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
1199. BahaHurican
9:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Afternoon all.

I'm starting to get used to the hatched white thingy over my head...


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
1197. CaribBoy
9:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
MARIA, MARIA, MARIA.... You have plenty of food with those WARM SSTs SO ENJOY IT AND DON'T WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1196. hurricanehunter27
9:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WOW.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1194. Dakster
9:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


WTF?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
1193. 69Viking
9:09 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
The long term motion may be southeast, but the short term motion is most likely NE.


First 3 hours he went SE and now he's moving NE or at least that's what I'm seeing on the visible. I'm thinking with the pressure drop, strengthening and easing of the shear we should have a more tightly wrapped eye soon that will be easier to track.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3022
1192. usa777
9:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting eyetoothtom1:
Been montering this blog since before Katrina. Used to chat with IndianRiverGuy about Camille. Everybody enjoys prognosticating what's up. Some are more qualified at it than others. My take...Que Sera Sera...was on Ms Coast for '47 hurricane, not named then, came across south Fl then to Ms and La., probably 15 foot surge in Ms. All information we had was from local radio station WGCM, commentator was "Snoops Shot"... a Mr. Berry, that a ship at sea reported a storm of hurricane strength was somewhere out there! Then we just waited for school to let out whenever and go to the beach when weather started to get worse. That was our warning. Experienced many events like that during the '50's. Most were TS after that til Betsy in the '60's til Camille. Then came Camille. Was in Camille and Katrina at the same exact local...water from Camille got soles of feet wet...water from Katrina was up to my nostriles, with me bobbing up and down on tippy toes, floating Mom on her foam rubber mattress. She was 91. Lost all pictures of her babies, mother and father and all else. Didn't drown though...but passed nine months later from stroke from shock. Believe it or not Steve Lyons, TWC, argued with me on his blog that surge of Katrina was not as bad as Camille, ...wet soles of feet in Camille and to my nostriles in Katrina in exactly the same local. I know better.
Enjoy reading what you all think is coming. Que Sera Sera.


What town were you in? I had the pleasure of riding out Katrina from Bay St Louis. I experienced the water up to nostril thing as well. At least until I found a nice tree to spend 6 hrs in.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
1191. WeatherNerdPR
9:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
1190. PRweathercenter
9:06 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
hurricane katian-ts nate and maria
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
1188. Bretts9112
9:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
000
WTNT45 KNHC 082058
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NATE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
HAS REPORTED PEAK 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND BELIEVABLE
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 60 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT NATE HAS MOVED SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 160/2 KT. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. NATE WILL REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER
36-48 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...
HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE GFS IS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE NATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 19.7N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.2N 92.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.9N 92.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.6N 93.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 22.5N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.0N 94.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 95.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Member Since: June 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
1187. CaribBoy
9:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
I love the NHC track for Maria! It's slightly to the right of the previous one by the time she crosses the leewards........ SO WE SHOULD GET WEATHER FROM HER HERE IN THE N LEEWARDS. Rain is ALWAYS welcomed!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6122
1186. jskweather
9:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting LoneStarWeather:


Beggers can't be choosers. I'll take as much rain as Nate cares to throw at us along with whatever else comes with it. This drought has got to end!


You obviously don't live anywhere near the coast or have never been through a major hurricane event over your house to make this statement.

If it is the drought (which will break naturally eventually) or another IKE, I'll keep the drought for now.
Member Since: October 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 40

Viewing: 1236 - 1186

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
79 °F
Mostly Cloudy