1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

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just notice the dry air weakining in the NW gulf shear looks favorable if nate takes both paths but in the northern gulf the shear is still 30 to 50 knots. if that doesnt decrease we will have a weakining storm at landfall but if it does decrease to 15 to 30 knots that could stop weakining by a little :P
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1135. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128232
Quoting DFWjc:


I don't see it now, and I'm in NRH, and at 11am i was at 30E/820N and didn't see it, must have been to far away from viewing...
when I looked at the radar 14:37 local time it shows up just south of Reno (which is about the same time I was driving on 820, kid gets released at 14:40) and is dealt with pretty quickly. PK shows up at 14:18, and really gives a good radar signature.
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Quoting P451:


With every storm this year, we've seen the NHC decide to do something that went against ATCF, at least once.

Not saying they will or won't just putting it out there.

I'd be a little uneasy upgrading to 70mph when the highest reading I can find is a rain flagged 69mph surface extrapolation.

Yet, as we've seen with Lee's upgrade and winds, and Irene's winds, they haven't exactly been conservative as of late. Almost seemingly opting to be aggressive.

One single wind barb showing 90, rain flagged, with all other showing 80 or less? 90mph it is! lol.



I can tell you won't give up about Lee until next season.
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you can read the full nws discusion on my blog
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Quoting yonzabam:


As it's travelling at 1 mph, don't you think it'll stir up some cold water to hinder its development? I think your prediction is way too strong.


It will have quite-a-bit of churning to get any cold water to upwell. Further north Nate goes, the DEEPER the fuel.

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Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?


huh, I don't know what that means, poleward means northward, equatorward means southward and westward means westward and eastward means eastward.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


? Its looks sunny...
umm no definatley not sunny lol!!!! DISCUSSION...TUTT NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS INTERACTING
WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...THEREFORE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MODELS
GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT PWAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 2.2 INCHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW...A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA BUT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

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Quoting P451:


Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.







I didn't say I agreed with it, I'm just relaying information I get. It's all quite confusing to me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


? Its looks sunny...

At my area? Yes. The rest of the island? No.
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Quoting Allyson00:


 

Tropical Storm Nate Advisory #5
Valid: 04:00 PM CDT Thursday September 08, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate Track Chart, Advisory #5

 
Current Location: 19.7N/92.3W
Geographic Reference: 339 NM southeast of Tampico
Movement: Stationary or drifting slowly southward today
Max Winds: 60 kts gusting 75 kts
Organizational Trend: Steadily increasing in organization
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size/4 intensity)
Maximum Hurricane Severity Index: 17 out of a possible 50 points (8 size/9 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence: Below average, based on poor model agreement in recent runs. However, model agreement is increasing.


Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have nudged the track southward a bit on this advisory. In addition, we're indicating more rapid strengthening based on the current recon data.


Our Forecast
After an overnight model run that took Nate just about everywhere along the Gulf Coast, the models have settled down significantly this afternoon. There is now good model consensus on a slow northward movement for a day or two, followed by a turn to the west and inland into Mexico near or south of Tampico on Monday. We agree with this model consensus. If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.


A recon plane inside Nate has found some surprisingly high winds, considering Nate's rather poor appearance on satellite. Winds of 60 kts were found southeast of the center. We think that these strong winds may be at least partially due to some funneling along the coast of Mexico. However, as wind shear relaxes over Nate in the next few days, we expect the storm to steadily intensify. Our forecast takes Nate to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 91 kts prior to reaching the coast of Mexico on Monday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is a little below average.


Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula: Squalls will continue through late Friday.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche:
Squalls will continue throughout the central and eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend.
Tampico to Tuxpan, MX: Squalls will reach the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan during the day on Sunday. Heavy squalls on Monday as Nate moves ashore.
North-Central Gulf Lease Areas: We do not expect any significant impact on the northwest Gulf lease areas. Deepwater locations off the lower Texas coast will experience an increasing southeasterly swell on Sunday and Monday, but heavy squalls should remain well to the south.


Our next advisory will be issued near 10pm CDT.
© 2011 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.



Not listening to these people, had Lee going all the way down the TX coast to Brownsville from Lake Charles, so I don't think I'm buying this track either
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1122. rb5kcid
Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?


Except Lenny
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Will Nate and Maria bring heavy rain to the East Coast next week?
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Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?


lol...you have to be very SPECIFIC...on here...
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Quoting cat6band:


You've been saying that till your blue in the face, but haven't given a piece of evidence to support your 98% for sure forecast...Are you saying it just to say it?



Nothing to see here. Move on ........
Member Since: August 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Not a nice day here...


? Its looks sunny...
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Quoting Allyson00:


 

Tropical Storm Nate Advisory #5
Valid: 04:00 PM CDT Thursday September 08, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate Track Chart, Advisory #5

 
Current Location: 19.7N/92.3W
Geographic Reference: 339 NM southeast of Tampico
Movement: Stationary or drifting slowly southward today
Max Winds: 60 kts gusting 75 kts
Organizational Trend: Steadily increasing in organization
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size/4 intensity)
Maximum Hurricane Severity Index: 17 out of a possible 50 points (8 size/9 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence: Below average, based on poor model agreement in recent runs. However, model agreement is increasing.


Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have nudged the track southward a bit on this advisory. In addition, we're indicating more rapid strengthening based on the current recon data.


Our Forecast
After an overnight model run that took Nate just about everywhere along the Gulf Coast, the models have settled down significantly this afternoon. There is now good model consensus on a slow northward movement for a day or two, followed by a turn to the west and inland into Mexico near or south of Tampico on Monday. We agree with this model consensus. If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.


A recon plane inside Nate has found some surprisingly high winds, considering Nate's rather poor appearance on satellite. Winds of 60 kts were found southeast of the center. We think that these strong winds may be at least partially due to some funneling along the coast of Mexico. However, as wind shear relaxes over Nate in the next few days, we expect the storm to steadily intensify. Our forecast takes Nate to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 91 kts prior to reaching the coast of Mexico on Monday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is a little below average.


Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula: Squalls will continue through late Friday.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche:
Squalls will continue throughout the central and eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend.
Tampico to Tuxpan, MX: Squalls will reach the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan during the day on Sunday. Heavy squalls on Monday as Nate moves ashore.
North-Central Gulf Lease Areas: We do not expect any significant impact on the northwest Gulf lease areas. Deepwater locations off the lower Texas coast will experience an increasing southeasterly swell on Sunday and Monday, but heavy squalls should remain well to the south.


Our next advisory will be issued near 10pm CDT.
© 2011 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.


Well, there about a day late.
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Not a nice day here...
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Quoting cat6band:


poleward...north..
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




point less

Opinion.
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1112. HCW
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Quoting basti11:



you are in denial if you think that forecast by TWA is wrong...i think they have it right on MEXICO is the target and has always been the target...you guys that want to keep it going to the northern gulf are really streching it...you all are going to be so disappointed when JIM CANTORE ends up in mexico lmao


You've been saying that till your blue in the face, but haven't given a piece of evidence to support your 98% for sure forecast...Are you saying it just to say it?
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TS Nate 70mph and 995mb pressure for the 5pm EST NHC update, IMO.
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Been montering this blog since before Katrina. Used to chat with IndianRiverGuy about Camille. Everybody enjoys prognosticating what's up. Some are more qualified at it than others. My take...Que Sera Sera...was on Ms Coast for '47 hurricane, not named then, came across south Fl then to Ms and La., probably 15 foot surge in Ms. All information we had was from local radio station WGCM, commentator was "Snoops Shot"... a Mr. Berry, that a ship at sea reported a storm of hurricane strength was somewhere out there! Then we just waited for school to let out whenever and go to the beach when weather started to get worse. That was our warning. Experienced many events like that during the '50's. Most were TS after that til Betsy in the '60's til Camille. Then came Camille. Was in Camille and Katrina at the same exact local...water from Camille got soles of feet wet...water from Katrina was up to my nostriles, with me bobbing up and down on tippy toes, floating Mom on her foam rubber mattress. She was 91. Lost all pictures of her babies, mother and father and all else. Didn't drown though...but passed nine months later from stroke from shock. Believe it or not Steve Lyons, TWC, argued with me on his blog that surge of Katrina was not as bad as Camille, ...wet soles of feet in Camille and to my nostriles in Katrina in exactly the same local. I know better.
Enjoy reading what you all think is coming. Que Sera Sera.
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TS.Maria's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_6pmGMT and ending 8Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 18mph(29k/h) on a heading of 273.8degrees(W)
TS.Maria was headed toward passing 6.8miles(10.9kilometres)north of St.Vincent(&theGrenadines) ~1day9hours from now

Copy&paste ngd, pmv, 13.2n43.1w-13.3n45.2w, 13.3n45.2w-13.2n47.3w, 13.2n47.3w-13.0n50.2w, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, svd, 13.0n50.2w-13.48n61.166w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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nate should be the man on the block soon
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
What will Nate get to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

What will Maria make it to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

Where will our next storm most likely form?
A.The Atlantic
B.The Caribbean
C.The GOM
D.The BOC
E.Other




point less
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Quoting Patrap:



One to watch thru the weekend from the Sabine to Destin


I'm interested in how his pretty fast (not rapid yet) intensification is going to affect his eventual path.
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Quoting P451:
Just going to have to wait for official confirmation... as the majority of those 60kt+ barbs are flagged as rain contaminated surface readings. You can find a couple that aren't flagged but they are right next to a long string of flagged ones, so they are possibly contaminated as well given the high rain rates along with them.

60...65mph TS? 70 maybe?








ATCF upped the intensity to 70mph. While it's not official, it's usually right on the money.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
What will Nate get to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

What will Maria make it to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

Where will our next storm most likely form?
A.The Atlantic
B.The Caribbean
C.The GOM
D.The BOC
E.Other


C
B
A
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Quoting 69Viking:


Everyone quite dogging TWC. According to what I just read on their website this troll is lying and lying bad.

From the TWC

At this time, it is too early to determine if there will be any U.S. impacts from Nate.

This uncertainty is due to a large dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the United States. If this jet stream dip is able to pull the system northward, Nate could head for the U.S. Gulf Coast. If the jet stream dip misses Nate, then the system would more than likely head more westward towards Mexico


I look at it more like dogging NBC. I sure do miss Nicole Mitchell. She was part time at TWC and in the AF Reserves flying with the hurricane hunters. Very easy on the eyes too
Member Since: August 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
Quoting IcemanMC:
Nate is ramping up very quickly, so my question is historically stronger storms tend to go what direction?
If there is a weakness between the CONUS Ridge and the Subtropical Ridge stronger storms tend to find that weakness and move poleward to it, troughs are responsible for creating this weakness because they flow counterclockwise. However, if the two highs bridge closing that weakness, no matter the strength of the system it will continue moving west/wnw around the clockwise flow of the High.
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1099. rb5kcid
Does anyone else find it comical that the models keep switching Nate from the US gulf coast to Mexico...and never even hint at Texas getting a landfall through any of it?
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Quoting P451:
Just going to have to wait for official confirmation... as the majority of those 60kt+ barbs are flagged as rain contaminated surface readings. You can find a couple that aren't flagged but they are right next to a long string of flagged ones, so they are possibly contaminated as well given the high rain rates along with them.

60...65mph TS? 70 maybe?








70 mph.
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Poll time:
What will Nate get to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

What will Maria make it to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

Where will our next storm most likely form?
A.The Atlantic
B.The Caribbean
C.The GOM
D.The BOC
E.Other
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1096. Wariac
It seems there is no data of TS Maria coming from the HH.
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We may have to change Nate to Nasty but I agree he is the one to watch this weekend. Predicting that, he may dissaper in the next 24 hrs.
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A friend of mine works for a ship yard here on the MS coast and this is what THEIR forecast through TropicWatch...

Current Location: 19.7N/92.3W
Geographic Reference: 339 NM southeast of Tampico
Movement: Stationary or drifting slowly southward today
Max Winds: 60 kts gusting 75 kts
Organizational Trend: Steadily increasing in organization
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size/4 intensity)
Maximum Hurricane Severity Index: 17 out of a possible 50 points (8 size/9 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence: Below average, based on poor model agreement in recent runs. However, model agreement is increasing.

Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have nudged the track southward a bit on this advisory. In addition, we're indicating more rapid strengthening based on the current recon data.

Our Forecast
After an overnight model run that took Nate just about everywhere along the Gulf Coast, the models have settled down significantly this afternoon. There is now good model consensus on a slow northward movement for a day or two, followed by a turn to the west and inland into Mexico near or south of Tampico on Monday. We agree with this model consensus. If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.

A recon plane inside Nate has found some surprisingly high winds, considering Nate's rather poor appearance on satellite. Winds of 60 kts were found southeast of the center. We think that these strong winds may be at least partially due to some funneling along the coast of Mexico. However, as wind shear relaxes over Nate in the next few days, we expect the storm to steadily intensify. Our forecast takes Nate to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 91 kts prior to reaching the coast of Mexico on Monday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is a little below average.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula: Squalls will continue through late Friday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche: Squalls will continue throughout the central and eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend.
Tampico to Tuxpan, MX: Squalls will reach the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan during the day on Sunday. Heavy squalls on Monday as Nate moves ashore.
North-Central Gulf Lease Areas: We do not expect any significant impact on the northwest Gulf lease areas. Deepwater locations off the lower Texas coast will experience an increasing southeasterly swell on Sunday and Monday, but heavy squalls should remain well to the south.

Our next advisory will be issued near 10pm CDT.

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech
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1093. DFWjc
Quoting AegirsGal:
Had a gut check moment while driving to my son's school. I saw a plume of black smoke NW of Loop 820 (Tarrant County, TX). Didn't see it after I picked the kid up, but looked on radar once we got back to the house and saw signature riding the line btwn Tarrant and Parker Counties. I also saw on radar that the PK fire in Palo Pinto County is still burning.


I don't see it now, and I'm in NRH, and at 11am i was at 30E/820N and didn't see it, must have been to far away from viewing...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Im agreeing with MississippiWX Nate-70mph, Maria-40mph,Katia 85mph
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Quoting IcemanMC:
Nate is ramping up very quickly, so my question is historically stronger storms tend to go what direction?


poleward...north..
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Quoting Caner:
Someone contact the atheists.

Let them know their god has appeared in the BOC.

LOL, poor Texas.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Just a few more inches before it starts to really hurt.



Binghamton Flood wall downtown - 8 foot drop on the other side.
I have to say... That is a very impressively built flood wall.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Partly Cloudy