1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

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Quoting Patrap:


Morn'

Alive,,which is always a good way to start the day.



I agree. Alive is the preferred way for me to start the morning.
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These guys have this named a Hurricane in 48 hrs?

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This does almost imply northeasterly shear, but at 5kts, which is extremely light. Nate is in the weak spot between the ridge and the trough where there is no well-defined shear direction until he moves northward.

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Quoting Levi32:


But are you actually going to tell me that the shear is out of the northeasterly direction? Also, the buoy humidity at the surface will be fairly high no matter what due to proximity to the ocean surface. It's the mid-levels (850mb-500mb) that matter.


Convection displaced to the southwest of the center yields northeast shear.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Super Rapid Scan Operations this afternoon from GOES West (~an image a minute)

NOUS72 KNES 081508
ADMNES
SUBJECT: ADMINISTRATIVE, GOES-11 (GOES-WEST) SRSO SCHEDULED FOR
*TOPIC*: GOES-11 (GOES-WEST) SRSO IS SCHEDULED FOR: SEPTEMBER 8, 2011

*DATE/TIME ISSUED*: SEPTEMBER 8, 2011 1457 UTC

*PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:* GOES-11 (GOES-WEST) IMAGER DATA AND
PRODUCTS

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT*: SEPTEMBER 8, 2011 J/DATE 251 1803 UTC

*DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END*: SEPTEMBER 9, 2011 J/DATE 252 0003 UTC

*LENGTH OF EVENT*: 6 HOURS

*IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE*: INCREASED NUMBER OF GOES-11
(GOES-WEST) CONUS SCANS,
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND SMALLER NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SCAN.

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE*: GOES-R PROVING GROUND RESEARCH AT 20
NORTH AND 93 WEST

*REQUESTOR: *CIRA





That's interesting... I though we only had Rapid Scans but not Super Rapid Scans.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I meant dry air in that post lol. Buoy 42055 is showing humidity values of 71.5% so I don't think its due to the dry air. The lack of organization can be attributed to the light to moderate shear over such a small system.


Agree its still in the Trough yet honestly......Dry air is not a huge factor with it.........you can see that on Water Vapor Loop below....the Dry air is to its North!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
Quoting rushisaband:
G-morning ... Pat, Drak, Levi, T Spin, 69, btw I sure don't like storms with four letter ... Ivan, Erin, Opal
Nate is in the same area as Opal back in 95


Good morning Rush.
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12Z GFS Init:

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Quoting TampaSpin:
If Nate does track North the amount of Moisture it could bring to the NE AGAIN......could be really really bad!


Dont forget about Maria she looks to be taking a track similar to irene which of course means more rain for the NE... Also school was a complete joke us juniors went in got our hr numbers got our books and left... how amazing wasted 1.5 hrs of my day sheesh
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Super Rapid Scan Operations this afternoon from GOES West (~an image a minute)

NOUS72 KNES 081508
ADMNES
SUBJECT: ADMINISTRATIVE, GOES-11 (GOES-WEST) SRSO SCHEDULED FOR
*TOPIC*: GOES-11 (GOES-WEST) SRSO IS SCHEDULED FOR: SEPTEMBER 8, 2011

*DATE/TIME ISSUED*: SEPTEMBER 8, 2011 1457 UTC

*PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:* GOES-11 (GOES-WEST) IMAGER DATA AND
PRODUCTS

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT*: SEPTEMBER 8, 2011 J/DATE 251 1803 UTC

*DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END*: SEPTEMBER 9, 2011 J/DATE 252 0003 UTC

*LENGTH OF EVENT*: 6 HOURS

*IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE*: INCREASED NUMBER OF GOES-11
(GOES-WEST) CONUS SCANS,
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND SMALLER NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SCAN.

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE*: GOES-R PROVING GROUND RESEARCH AT 20
NORTH AND 93 WEST

*REQUESTOR: *CIRA



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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
Quoting Patrap:
Ava Maria ?


I just met a girl named Maria?
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Quoting Dakster:
Hey Patrap. Good morning to you... How are you doing today?



Morn'

Alive,,which is always a good way to start the day.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
Quoting Drakoen:


I meant dry air in that post lol. Buoy 42055 is showing humidity values of 71.5% so I don't think its due to the dry air. The lack of organization can be attributed to the light to moderate shear over such a small system.


But are you actually going to tell me that the shear is out of the northeasterly direction? Also, the buoy humidity at the surface will be fairly high no matter what due to proximity to the ocean surface. It's the mid-levels (850mb-500mb) that matter.
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Hey Patrap. Good morning to you... How are you doing today?

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Quoting Levi32:


Dry air, not shear. They noted that it was in the way, but stated that it was not making it to the center of the cyclone, and likely wouldn't in a low-shear environment. However, dry air clearly got into the center yesterday and is even more obvious today due to the lack of convection outside of the SW quad and the low-level cloud deck around the center.


I meant dry air in that post lol. Buoy 42055 is showing humidity values of 71.5% so I don't think its due to the dry air. The lack of organization can be attributed to the light to moderate shear over such a small system.
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G-morning ... Pat, Drak, Levi, T Spin, 69, btw I sure don't like storms with four letter ... Ivan, Erin, Opal
Nate is in the same area as Opal back in 95
Member Since: August 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, September 8th, with Video


Thanks, Levi. Your "tidbit" was very informative & educational. I appreciate it!
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117. SLU
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116. Inyo
Whoever authorized cutting flood gage funding during a time the country is experiencing multiple record floods is at best an idiot and at worst a traitor. They need to be thrown out of office immediately and possibly imprisoned for manslaughter as this will surely lead to people dying.
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Dear Katia,

Thank you for a glorious morning.

Would you mind staying around a little bit longer?

It would be great if you could.

Sincerely,

Brock
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If Nate does track North the amount of Moisture it could bring to the NE AGAIN......could be really really bad!
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112. DFWjc
Another beautiful morning in the metroplex it's a nice 76F right now! I'm loving this weather...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
Ava Maria ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
Quoting TampaSpin:


On a Collision course with the GFS!


Its going to be interesting. IF NATE goes into LA, then Maria may miss the east coast.

If Nate heads back into MX and TX, which is my guess right now, then Maria finds the east coast.

With Nate, I wonder just how much he will help TX drought? The ground is hard and dry. Normally its more difficult for the ground to absorb water when its that hard. It seems more runoff is likely.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


On a Collision course with the GFS!


Well, looks like the shield is up for west central Florida.
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Quoting Patrap:




BREAKING NEWS:Mandatory Evacuation Of Over 100,000 Residents Along River In Pennsylvania


And it could get much worse next week :(
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Quoting Drakoen:


Obviously I did. They said the shear was an "inhibiting" factor, but shouldn't be enough to disrupt the system entirely.


Dry air, not shear. They noted that it was in the way, but stated that it was not making it to the center of the cyclone, and likely wouldn't in a low-shear environment. However, dry air clearly got into the center yesterday and is even more obvious today due to the lack of convection outside of the SW quad and the low-level cloud deck around the center.
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Quoting Levi32:


She is slightly south of the old forecast track, but not by too much. I think this will be an important detail for the northeastern Caribbean, but ultimately won't change her general recurve track. Obviously if she stays very weak for a longer time then the danger of her slipping farther west increases, which is why the U.S. shouldn't take their eyes off of her. I still feel that she will miss, but it's a long-range forecast and we all know that those are never guarantees.


If we could only get Hurricanes to sign contracts on where they will go it would be much easier!

Thanks for responding.
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On a Collision course with the GFS!
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Quoting Levi32:


Did you read beyond the bolded part?

HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

They knew it was there but they said it was having little to no effect on Nate.



Obviously I did. They said the dry air was an "inhibiting" factor, but shouldn't be enough to disrupt the system entirely.
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I am not excited for Texas with that track either... I don't think it will do much for the drought or fires just yet...
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Charleston NWS not too concerned with Maria:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY...MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...AMAZINGLY THIS FEATURE WOULD ACTUALLY BE A PIECE ENERGY
FROM WHAT USED TO BE TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE.
THIS PVA ALOFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD
TO SMALL POPS INTO TUESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH WEST TO NW FLOW
NOT ONLY ALOFT BUT ALSO WITH THE MEAN 1000-500 MB FLOW WILL CAUSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA TO RECURVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS SHE REACHES
NEAR 70-75 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALLOW FOR POPS TO FALL
UNDER 15 PERCENT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BE FOUND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
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NHC will probably have the infamous loop cone and going back to friggin Veracruz
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting redwagon:

I don't know if you were here the other night when Lee ingested a mass of dry air, wrapped himself around it! and kept on trucking.

Man, wait'll the other Texans see Nate's new track. Champagne for everyone!


Wouldn't celebrate just yet.
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Quoting Dakster:


Levi,

Doesn't Maria being very weak change the steering pattern and other pressure influences on her? Also, she is further south than was forecast. I agree (and hope you are right) that she will recurve before hitting CONUS, but it looks like she could get a little closer than we thought a couple of days ago? Or am I completely off base here?



She is slightly south of the old forecast track, but not by too much. I think this will be an important detail for the northeastern Caribbean, but ultimately won't change her general recurve track. Obviously if she stays very weak for a longer time then the danger of her slipping farther west increases, which is why the U.S. shouldn't take their eyes off of her. I still feel that she will miss, but it's a long-range forecast and we all know that those are never guarantees.
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I'm still not excited with this track

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Levi32:
Nate is choking on dry air. I never understood why the NHC said the dry air wasn't affecting his circulation, as it clearly was yesterday and still is today. Convection is confined to southwest of the center right now, with a low-level cloud-deck elsewhere.

I don't know if you were here the other night when Lee ingested a mass of dry air, wrapped himself around it! and kept on trucking.

Man, wait'll the other Texans see Nate's new track. Champagne for everyone!
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Quoting wxobsvps:
CYA from NHC...





WHAT A SHIFT!!!!! LOL Northcaster will be very happy
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
Maria will track much further South and West because of her weak status!
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Quoting Drakoen:


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.

NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.


Did you read beyond the bolded part?

HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

They knew it was there but they said it was having little to no effect on Nate.

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MARIA could be a TD right now, but I don't think she has degenerated into a wave.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
Quoting 69Viking:


Awesome tidbit Levi, glad you notice the cutoff low from Lee too. I saw that backing up on Water Vapor this morning and had a feeling Nate's track could change. Still I give it a 50/50 chance of either hitting Mexico or going up towards LA and FL Panhandle. Hopefully by later today or tomorrow we'll have a better idea of exactly where it's going.


I think tomorrow will start to see the models committing more fully to one of the options on the table, once Nate actually starts moving. Obviously things become clearer as every day goes by.
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Quoting Levi32:
Maria looks most likely to recurve east of the United States, but given how far away that is, it definitely does not mean that the U.S. should not watch her, as she will probably make a close enough pass that some people may be uneasy on the eastern seaboard. Definitely keep tabs on her progress. Of course, first stop is the northeastern Caribbean islands and they will be impacted first.


Levi,

Doesn't Maria being very weak change the steering pattern and other pressure influences on her? Also, she is further south than was forecast. I agree (and hope you are right) that she will recurve before hitting CONUS, but it looks like she could get a little closer than we thought a couple of days ago? Or am I completely off base here?

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Quoting Levi32:
Nate is choking on dry air. I never understood why the NHC said the dry air wasn't affecting his circulation, as it clearly was yesterday and still is today. Convection is confined to southwest of the center right now, with a low-level cloud-deck elsewhere.


As the late Johnny Cochran would say...

"My call for Nate... is it will dis-si-pate!"
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Quoting Levi32:
Nate is choking on dry air. I never understood why the NHC said the dry air wasn't affecting his circulation, as it clearly was yesterday and still is today. Convection is confined to southwest of the center right now, with a low-level cloud-deck elsewhere.


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.

NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
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EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.


Where is the northeasterly shear? It's dry air, not shear.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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