1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1186 - 1136

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Quoting LoneStarWeather:


Beggers can't be choosers. I'll take as much rain as Nate cares to throw at us along with whatever else comes with it. This drought has got to end!


You obviously don't live anywhere near the coast or have never been through a major hurricane event over your house to make this statement.

If it is the drought (which will break naturally eventually) or another IKE, I'll keep the drought for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IN BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...AND THIS SHOULD
BRING OUR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS UP A BIT TO HELP THOSE
BATTLING THE WILDFIRES. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
STILL LOOK GOOD. ALL EYES THEN TURN SOUTH TOWARD STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM NATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE SEE WHICH WAY HE DECIDES
TO GO. BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC/HPC TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ONLY A MARINE IMPACT ON THE AREA AND NO DROUGHT RELIEF FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OF COURSE...ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND/OR UNEXPECTED
GROWTH/RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD HAVE A LARGER INFLUENCE ON OUR
AREA...SO STAY TUNED.

AND FOR MORE GREAT NEWS ON THE DROUGHT...CPC HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH.
THIS IS MORE BAD NEWS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SINCE IN GENERAL THE LA NINA
PATTERN FAVORS A DRIER THAN NORMAL FALL/WINTER/SPRING SEASON.
42
&&

Hope Nate does something here at least cause it looks like an even drier winter season.



nop

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

Re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (degree C) for the week centered on Aug. 31, 2011, indicate the re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting miguel617:
Those of you that board up your windows, how exactly do you do that without messing up the outside of your homes with the nails and/or screws? Do you go back and caulk up the holes later. My home is stucco so I am not sure how to do it.


Cut to fit over the window & frame. Drill & screw it into the metal or wood window frame. Then mark them so you know which window it fits the holes to & which side is outside. Leaves little holes in the window frame that aren't to bad to fill with something like caulk. Mark & keep it all & the next time you board up goes fast. (Record time here with 11 windows + 2 doors, one guy~ is 58mins)..

Probably not optimum for saving a house in Cat 4 winds but wouldn't 1/2 expect this house to make it through that anyways.

Now the family's hurricane house (where all the extended hunker) has anchors in the block so the plywood (& we went 1 inch with a reinforcing frame) covers the whole window hole so the block walls not the window frames take the brunt of the wind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IN BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...AND THIS SHOULD
BRING OUR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS UP A BIT TO HELP THOSE
BATTLING THE WILDFIRES. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
STILL LOOK GOOD. ALL EYES THEN TURN SOUTH TOWARD STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM NATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE SEE WHICH WAY HE DECIDES
TO GO. BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC/HPC TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ONLY A MARINE IMPACT ON THE AREA AND NO DROUGHT RELIEF FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OF COURSE...ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND/OR UNEXPECTED
GROWTH/RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD HAVE A LARGER INFLUENCE ON OUR
AREA...SO STAY TUNED.

AND FOR MORE GREAT NEWS ON THE DROUGHT...CPC HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH.
THIS IS MORE BAD NEWS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SINCE IN GENERAL THE LA NINA
PATTERN FAVORS A DRIER THAN NORMAL FALL/WINTER/SPRING SEASON.
42
&&

Hope Nate does something here at least cause it looks like an even drier winter season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting spinningtop:
not true nevada and arizona have the hottest summers on record


Overall been nice and cool in Soo Cal this summer :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
there was a storm about 10 yrs ago that just sat there in the boc spinning for about a wk eventually moving sw into mexico it was a flood zone down in that area of the world
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC believes Maria could be an open wave right now, but they think it will make a run for hurricane status at the end of the forecast period as it heads towards the USA. Very possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Show him the omega equation lol.

But seriously, Atmo, you are better than this. Stop responding to this troll.
Yeah. Had 5 minutes to waste...could have done something more fun with it. Will next time...
;-)

L8R.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The long term motion may be southeast, but the short term motion is most likely NE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nate now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane...I'm still a little less conservative with the intensity.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.






P, wouldn't Nate *have* to go a little N or NNE as he strengthened and pushed off land, the way a swimmer pushes off the wall? And wouldn't running into the E Yucatan ricochet him a little further back W?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3277
Quoting 69Viking:


Almost, I said SE and they said SSE. I am thinking he has turned more to the North or NE here just recently. Might have moved SSE for the past 3 hours but seems to have changed directions by the looks of it on visible satellite. Now we just have to wait another 3 hours to find out!


close, so close ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 8
Location: 19.7°N 92.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: SSE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb

According to NHC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:


You get a gold star!


Almost, I said SE and they said SSE. I am thinking he has turned more to the North or NE here just recently. Might have moved SSE for the past 3 hours but seems to have changed directions by the looks of it on visible satellite. Now we just have to wait another 3 hours to find out!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
Quoting twincomanche:
Oh darn, another missed opportunity........however I have a certain bridge on the West coast with a nice view.


I think some city in Arizona bought that bridge,their brain musta got baked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1171. Dakster
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd wait on the shutters, but disconnect your cable now.


Roflmao
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10567
Quoting 69Viking:


Not to mention all the trees it knocked down, Lee was a pretty good tropical storm!

Yep here is some more damageLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nate a 70mph 995 mb storm via NHC

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thesituation:
When is the latest I should wait untill I put my shutters up for Nate? Im just outside of Teaxas City
I'd wait on the shutters, but disconnect your cable now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bretts9112:

Well in destin FL on the beach I can tell you on monday there was 60 mph winds I was there.


Not to mention all the trees it knocked down, Lee was a pretty good tropical storm!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
Quoting 69Viking:
I'm betting 70 mph at next advisory and moving SE!


You get a gold star!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.





it does appear that it is slowly starting to move north or nne a little now after being stationary for sometime
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1164. DFWjc
Quoting WhoDat42:


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!



+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1163. Caner
Quoting Patrap:
Police: Arkansas meteorologist found asleep in tub next to dead man


Maybe someone was "Tropically Depressed" ?


Depressed?

No.

Apparently, he had a *very* good time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1161. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:
While you certainly are entitled to your opinion, I think you are entirely wrong about this.

B.S. degrees in atmo science and/or meteorology don't fall out of Cracker Jack boxes. Look up the math and physics required for a B.S. at Texas A&M, for example. The amount of, and complexity of, math would embarrass most engineers and most any accountant.

Now, if you are basing this off of what some yahoo on a TV with a communications degree has to say or the attempted meteorology conducted by a promoted sportscaster, I can understand how you can about that mistaken notion.

Further, there are a number of amateurs in here that I, as a degree holding meteorologist, would not classify as novices. Some of them know very well what is going on in the atmosphere, can diagnose the relative strengths of synoptic features, how those features are going transform in the next few days, and can aptly build a coherent and well-reasoned track forecast for a TC.

(Aside: they seem to have much more spare time than I do...)


Show him the omega equation lol.

But seriously, Atmo, you are better than this. Stop responding to this troll.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
I'm betting 70 mph at next advisory and moving SE!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
.RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE STRONGER...
4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 8
Location: 19.7°N 92.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: SSE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


What's to give up on? The system was prematurely declared and _NEVER_ had _ANY_ confirmation of 60mph sustained surface winds.

Seems quite simple to me.

I quoted it as an example to show that the usually conservative NHC has been anything but recently. Irene was another good example. Lee was a terrific example.

If Nate is upgraded to the highest wind found in the storm, in the face of some good evidence of rain contaminated surface estimates, it just continues the idea that they have gone from conservative to aggressive with their advisories.

It's not a personal thing...only people on this blog have tried to make it seem that way.

Well in destin FL on the beach I can tell you on monday there was 60 mph winds I was there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JamesSA:


I have had him in ignore all day. I wish every other post was not somebody quoting him.


+100000000000
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. JamesSA
Quoting WhoDat42:


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!


I have had him in ignore all day. I wish every other post was not somebody quoting him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.MARIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 8
Location: 13.2°N 52.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1006 m
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?
***

Quoting thedawnawakening3 huh, I don't know what that means, poleward means northward, equatorward means southward and westward means westward and eastward means eastward.

***
Really? You don' get Methurricanes' joke?
Really?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1153. Caner
Quoting WhoDat42:


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!


I had been avoiding it, but he was the second to have made it.

It's a pretty exclusive club. Only 2 have been deemed worthy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1152. basti11
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's interesting, I wonder what gave Jim Cantore the idea that the BOC had some of the warmest waters in the GOM, when clearly this map begs to differ.




all you have to do is think back june 1961 HURRICANE AUDREY ...BLEW UP OVER THE BOC..its the curvature of the BOC that fuels the storms that develop there..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting basti11:



im tired of giving nmy 2 reasons scroll up you will find them...i still have that 2% if it meanders down in the BOC it will move north...but 98% mexico gets a cat 2...


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
# 1124 .. Larry
# 1129 .. Moe

Do we have a Curly ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

1083. Caner 4:31 PM EDT on September 08, 2011
"Someone contact the atheists.

Let them know their god has appeared in the BOC".


By definition: Atheism is, in a broad sense, the rejection of belief in the existence of deities.[1] In a narrower sense, atheism is specifically the position that there are no deities.[2] Most inclusively, atheism is simply the absence of belief that any deities exist.[3] Atheism is contrasted with theism,[4][5] which in its most general form is the belief that at least one deity exists.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1146. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can tell you won't give up about Lee until next season.


What's to give up on? The system was prematurely declared and _NEVER_ had _ANY_ confirmation of 60mph sustained surface winds.

Seems quite simple to me.

I quoted it as an example to show that the usually conservative NHC has been anything but recently. Irene was another good example. Lee was a terrific example.

If Nate is upgraded to the highest wind found in the storm, in the face of some good evidence of rain contaminated surface estimates, it just continues the idea that they have gone from conservative to aggressive with their advisories.

It's not a personal thing...only people on this blog have tried to make it seem that way.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting mobiledave:


I'm sorry but "every once in a while" and "time to time" fails to comfort those looking for accurate and relevant information.

With all do respect someone with a B.S. degree should not be listened to when it comes to forecasting.
While you certainly are entitled to your opinion, I think you are entirely wrong about this.

B.S. degrees in atmo science and/or meteorology don't fall out of Cracker Jack boxes. Look up the math and physics required for a B.S. at Texas A&M, for example. The amount of, and complexity of, math would embarrass most engineers and most any accountant.

Now, if you are basing this off of what some yahoo on a TV with a communications degree has to say or the attempted meteorology conducted by a promoted sportscaster, I can understand how you came about that mistaken notion.

Further, there are a number of amateurs in here that I, as a degree holding meteorologist, would not classify as novices. Some of them know very well what is going on in the atmosphere, can diagnose the relative strengths of synoptic features, how those features are going transform in the next few days, and can aptly build a coherent and well-reasoned track forecast for a TC.

(Aside: they seem to have much more spare time than I do...)

Now, your point about not taking a blog commenter's post as truthful and complete as the NHC's is an entirely valid one. Stick around for longer than the 2 days you have been around and you'll learn whom to listen to.

P.S. Please learn the difference between there / they're / their, then / than, two / too / to, bare / bear, brake / break, you're / your, do / due, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1144. basti11
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
just notice the dry air weakining in the NW gulf shear looks favorable if nate takes both paths but in the northern gulf the shear is still 30 to 50 knots. if that doesnt decrease we will have a weakining storm at landfall but if it does decrease to 15 to 30 knots that could stop weakining by a little :P



gee look at the conditions in the northern gulf NATE CAN NOT COME NORTH...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MARIA IS BORING. BORING!!!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6415
1142. DFWjc
Quoting AegirsGal:
when I looked at the radar 14:37 local time it shows up just south of Reno (which is about the same time I was driving on 820, kid gets released at 14:40) and is dealt with pretty quickly. PK shows up at 14:18, and really gives a good radar signature.


I see it now, click on the wrong radar, my bad, that's cool to see that!! (tho not cool it's going on)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rb5kcid:


Except Lenny


and 2008 CAT 3 OMAR LOL
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6415
Quoting Patrap:




ewe! me no likie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It will have to quit a bit of churning to get any cold water to upwell. Further north Nate goes, the DEEPER the fuel.

That's interesting, I wonder what gave Jim Cantore the idea that the BOC had some of the warmest waters in the GOM, when clearly this map begs to differ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1138. P451
Not much to go on out here...that's available for the public to see, anyway.




*note, tropical cyclone position only updated at advisory times. Wind reports are frequently updated.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
1137. DFWjc
Quoting thedawnawakening3:


huh, I don't know what that means, poleward means northward, equatorward means southward and westward means westward and eastward means eastward.


then you haven't seen the WEST map....where all storms in the ATL always go west...LOL


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just notice the dry air weakining in the NW gulf shear looks favorable if nate takes both paths but in the northern gulf the shear is still 30 to 50 knots. if that doesnt decrease we will have a weakining storm at landfall but if it does decrease to 15 to 30 knots that could stop weakining by a little :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1186 - 1136

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
49 °F
Light Rain