1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

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I honestly would not be surprised to see Maria weaken back to a Depression. I also would not be surprised for her to continue through the Caribbean instead or turning northward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone direct Nate to TX...or MX. Immediately, please. I don't want a repeat of 05...or 08 for that matter. :(
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Quoting basti11:



hey no disrespect everyone has there take on what NATE will do...im just more realistic when it comes to hurricanes..if you dont want to hear the truth then just put a big fat block on me then...im not going to lie to the woman and tell her its coming towards HOUSTON when it shows no signs of doing so the way everything is set up now...i suggest you look at the steering pattern and then you tell me why im wrong...ill be glad to listen to your opinion..


Hey Brother, Nobody is taking whay you say worth a grain of salt. You are new here, well at least your handle is. I hope you have a good recipe for crow because that is what is on your menu in the next week or so. Nate will at some point effect the CONUS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
583. Caner
Quoting Patrap:



Get a grip,,son.

You bounced in here with it.

We just clarify the facts for ya.


Im a US Vet, USMC to be sure, and your personal attack will be forwarded to admin.

Have a nice day



Patrap,

He hadn't said a thing about politics, all he did was ask someone to backup a claim they made, then you piped in and started dropping names and accusations.

I try to avoid politics at all costs, ignoring them and not appreciating them are not mutually exclusive, however. It is easy to get sucked in.

Your decision to 'report him' smacks of hypocrisy, since in my view you started it; so consider your accusatory political comment counter-reported just to balance it.

Sorry, but it's only fair.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
ryang....Thoughts for us?
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
Quoting Neapolitan:

I won't claim to have "extensive dealings with the FAA", but I've been a pilot (single- and multi-engine sea and land) for several decades now, so I know a little of how that organization works. The thing is, Aero was out of compliance with several airworthiness directives. Because of that, Aero couldn't provide the safe and reliable planes needed by the USFS, a vital condition of their contract. And because of that, the contract was cancelled. Now, it was a lucrative contract, especially with these last few fire seasons, so it seemed that Aero would have no problem gathering the funds required to bring the planes into compliance. Rather, it seems that Aero's principles were pocketing the cash instead of improving the product. (At this point I should mention that Aero has previously had issues with the USFS before, such as when, in 1987, the company had an agreement to operate and maintain several brand new firefighting aircraft on loan from the government, but Aero instead dismantled the planes and sold them at a profit. Where there's smoke...)

If I'm wrong, I'll admit it...


Nea,

Not sure if I ever got around to thanking you for the Google chrome advice. All my IE problems are gone. :)
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Not that I don't have faith in that wall... but this was more than an hour ago.



Binghamton,NY
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting jpsb:

I am a USMC vet too.


I am waiting for you two to argue about who has a bigger gun now...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10567
Quoting ryang:
12Z GFDL



Well this sux ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
577. P451
Quoting txjac:


Wow, I pray that people listen to what they are supposed to be doing, dont like to hear tragic stories of some who think that they know better than the people in charge.


I would surmise that everyone is listening because of how the event unfolded. When you live in such a region and are pounded with a foot of torrential rain in a day's time you are going to expect severe flooding and are very likely to listen. Especially after seeing what just happened a week ago with the previous event and what it did to regions just to your East.

If anyone is still not listening, after witnessing all of that, then there is no hope for such individuals, as there would be no way to impress upon them the severity of any issue.



Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
576. Inyo
Quoting jpsb:
yeah I think I am going to have to go to a different weather blog, seems it is OK here to bash converatives, only one or two of us speak up and then we are repremanded for bring politics into a weather blog. Well it is pretty clear that most here have zero tolerance of any thing other then PC liberal thought. Even RESPONDING to ignorant posts is not tolerated by the blog. Sad that the blog allows bashing conservatives but does not tolerate anyone speaking up in their defense. Guess this is the moveon org of weather blogs.


Funny, all I see is bashing of 'liberals' aka anyone who believes science and common sense re: climate change. The bashing here is definitely not only towards conservative... that doesn't mean it doesn't go both ways... it shouldn't happen at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nativhoustonian:
One concern that we have in the Houston/Central Tx area is that we might get the West side winds of Nate, which compare to the winds of Lee that fueled the fires.

We are on pins and needles between drought, fires, and hurricanes. Winds are breaking dry tree limbs into electric lines and starting msot of these fires.


Yep that is what I am saying. That is also why I hope Nate visits Texas and puts out the fires and avoids dumping any more major rain on the North East. That would help both Texas and the North East out.
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Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting twincomanche:
Who knows. They probably have the insurance off of them and gosh knows what it take in red tape to get them there. I know that the Forest Service operates with a whole different set of rules as far as aircraft go than regular FAA rules so it probably isn't something that could be done real fast.



Yeah the forest service is very picky about things and especially so in the last few years. I'm a former CFR and wanted to help with the fires out west. Pretty much you have to be a working firefighter to even bring a porta potty on a truck. That means THOSE firefighters are going to be missing from their areas.
It didn't make sense. I emailed the Pres and got a letter telling me all the administration has done to make jobs for people and how to get a job.

Pfffft!

Forestry Service is shooting themselves in the foot.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
Quoting WXHEAD:


I think it depends on if they can bring their pets or not.


Just as I'm getting that exchange out of my head.

Fortunately the Dog Arguer is on the East coast and not interested in Tejas canines who may or may not be welcomed by the Red Cross.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting jpsb:

I am a USMC vet too.


Well than Semper Fi.


..now I must attend to my Shrimp Creole before it gets cold.
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Quoting jpsb:
yeah I think I am going to have to go to a different weather blog


No don't g... alright see ya.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
568. txjac
Quoting FLdewey:
Flood waters are nearing the top of the Binghamton’s flood walls and are spilling over.

“It’s just unknowable at this point as to whether or not those flood walls in the city of Binghamton will hold. There’s monitoring of that taking place,” said Howard Glaser, Cuomo's director of state operations, who joined Cuomo and other officials today on a helicopter tour of the damage.


Man if those walls are breached... yikes.


Sitting here thinking the same thing ... strange how things work out ...many with too much water and others with no water ..Binghamton is in my positive thoughts and prayers ..
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Quoting basti11:



hey no disrespect everyone has there take on what NATE will do...im just more realistic when it comes to hurricanes..if you dont want to hear the truth then just put a big fat block on me then...im not going to lie to the woman and tell her its coming towards HOUSTON when it shows no signs of doing so the way everything is set up now...i suggest you look at the steering pattern and then you tell me why im wrong...ill be glad to listen to your opinion..
I only read this one post, so i don't know what you stured up. You seem to be ok, just don't starts fights this early in your Wu life. You won't last another day on here if you do.

With that said. welcome to the BLOG.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Quoting surfsidesindy:
Any chance of that wave out ahead of Maria developing? It's been looking more interesting as the day goes on and Katia leaves a piece of herself behind.


Too Much shear from the ULL IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
565. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:



Get a grip,,son.

You bounced in here with it.

We just clarify the facts for ya.


Im a US Vet, USMC to be sure, and your personal attack will be forwarded to admin.

Have a nice day


I am a USMC vet too.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
One concern that we have in the Houston/Central Tx area is that we might get the West side winds of Nate, which compare to the winds of Lee that fueled the fires.

We are on pins and needles between drought, fires, and hurricanes. Winds are breaking dry tree limbs into electric lines and starting most of these fires.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
Current Dry Air in the GOM.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any chance of that wave out ahead of Maria developing? It's been looking more interesting as the day goes on and Katia leaves a piece of herself behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NexSat
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Flood waters are nearing the top of the Binghamton’s flood walls and are spilling over.

“It’s just unknowable at this point as to whether or not those flood walls in the city of Binghamton will hold. There’s monitoring of that taking place,” said Howard Glaser, Cuomo's director of state operations, who joined Cuomo and other officials today on a helicopter tour of the damage.


Man if those walls are breached... yikes.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting nash28:


Oh god. Please no politics on the board. Both parties suck. It's like a bowl of excrement looking in the mirror at itself.

Back to the weather...


I agree and that is now why I am registered as an Independent. So tired of "politics as usual". Now, enough political stuff and back to tropics! Closely watching Maria. Praying that Nate will try to put some good rain on my beloved Texas even tho I don't live there anymore.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Your conclusion is rather sweeping my friend since you have no idea of what their motives are. Since I have extensive dealings with the FAA it could be near anything that caused non compliance. I will see what I can find out about the true facts.

I won't claim to have "extensive dealings with the FAA", but I've been a pilot (single- and multi-engine sea and land) for several decades now, so I know a little of how that organization works. The thing is, Aero was out of compliance with several airworthiness directives. Because of that, Aero couldn't provide the safe and reliable planes needed by the USFS, a vital condition of their contract. And because of that, the contract was cancelled. Now, it was a lucrative contract, especially with these last few fire seasons, so it seemed that Aero would have no problem gathering the funds required to bring the planes into compliance. Rather, it seems that Aero's principles were pocketing the cash instead of improving the product. (At this point I should mention that Aero has previously had issues with the USFS before, such as when, in 1987, the company had an agreement to operate and maintain several brand new firefighting aircraft on loan from the government, but Aero instead dismantled the planes and sold them at a profit. Where there's smoke...)

If I'm wrong, I'll admit it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
556. ryang
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ryang:
12Z GFDL



I don't like that track, can we get another?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10567
Quoting Caner:


Because we all know hurricanes never go places where they will experience dry air or shear...


HALF of Mexico is covered by that dry air according to the Water Vapor Loop. The Dry Air is also lessening along the Texas Coast.

However....

This is what I think will happen with that dry air. The dry air will be sling shoted around Nate as he becomes a hurricane and some of it will probably filter into the storm. Once the dry air is behind him the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida is free of major dry air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 081738
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
..MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME






Come on Maria! Pace yourself
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Lunch-o


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
She's baaaaack. La Nina returns. Bad news for Texas and the southern Plains? (me thinks so) Part of the reason for the current active ATL Hurricane season?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
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Quoting basti11:



no you did not read my post correctly i did leave open a 2% chance that if NATE STALLS IN THE BOC FOR 5 DAYS IT WOULD THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE NORTH...that has such a slim possibility though...my point is if that happen why worry the poor woman and tell her NATE is going to hit HOUSTON..I CALL THAT IRRESPONSIBLE AND FOOLISH...


I think you know what you are talking about. It's just your emotions when expressing your point take over and you go to the extremes. Take Levi for example, he can be 98% sure something if gonna happen, but he says "this should happen, we shall see."

Try to be less emotional when giving your forecasts and that way you won't get banned for the 7th time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
549. Caner
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Nate a little stronger now: 60 MPH and moving SE at 1 MPH

The storm is strengthening pretty well for a nearly stationery storm. ANy more strength and we will have a hurricane. I am starting to realize just why I had a bad feeling about this storm last week.

I hope the storm remains a weak storm/hurricane and does nothing more than put out the WILDFIRES in Texas. They need the rain there badly. Nate going into Texas is like helping everybody out. Hopefully the rain goes westward and rains out before curving into the middle of the country and puts the wildfire out as well as put a dent in the drought there in Texas.


Even that SE at 1mph is questionable. I swear this thing hasn't moved a stitch in the last 6 hours, watching the loop.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
Quoting FLdewey:
The real question is if a big storm were to strike Houston, would all of the Katrina evacuees head back to NOLA?


I think it depends on if they can bring their pets or not.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
547. DFWjc
Quoting jpsb:



No, i don't care what party you are from, I will poof you and sent a note to Admin, POLITICS ARE NOT WELCOME!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
546. skook


updated "creek" level

Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 368
545. txjac
Quoting FLdewey:
BINGHAMTON, N.Y. - Officials in Binghamton are banning all traffic from city streets except emergency vehicles as two swollen rivers are over their banks.

The city is effectively cut off from every direction.


I've been to Binghamton on business several times... beautiful part of NY.


Wow, I pray that people listen to what they are supposed to be doing, dont like to hear tragic stories of some who think that they know better than the people in charge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
544. SLU
Quoting SLU:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 081737
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...KATIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 70.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS KATIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SWELLS ON THE EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
SUBSIDING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA TODAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN







Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5354
543. ryang
12Z GFDL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
people should not say that without a doubt Nate is going here or going there. it could go anywhere at this point. even the models dont know. people are on here for info and them kinds of comments are very misleading to alot of folks that are here for good info
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
541. SLU
000
WTNT32 KNHC 081737
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...KATIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 70.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS KATIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. SWELLS ON THE EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
SUBSIDING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA TODAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN




Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5354
Nate a little stronger now: 60 MPH and moving SE at 1 MPH

The storm is strengthening pretty well for a nearly stationery storm. ANy more strength and we will have a hurricane. I am starting to realize just why I had a bad feeling about this storm last week.

I hope the storm remains a weak storm/hurricane and does nothing more than put out the WILDFIRES in Texas. They need the rain there badly. Nate going into Texas is like helping everybody out. Hopefully the rain goes westward and rains out before curving into the middle of the country and puts the wildfire out as well as put a dent in the drought there in Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
539. SLU
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081745
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
100 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TOMORROW OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5354
Quoting yonzabam:


Way off topic, but how many will be following the US rugby team in the Rugby World Cup? I bet most Americans don't even know about it. US are first time qualifiers and play Ireland on Sunday. They'll just be hoping to keep the score respectable. Then they play Russia next Thursday. First time Russia have qualified too, and the best chance of a US win.
I know about it and am looking forward to watching some. Unfortunate day of the week though. TEVO :)
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Mind as well shift the circle east, that way the WHOLE GOM is in the circle of Doom

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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