1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

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636. Caner
6:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting skook:

Near Hershey pa.


Link


Mental note:

Do not order pizza in Hershey, PA for a couple of years.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
635. kshipre1
6:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
does anyone know when that strong canadian trough that Levi was talking about is coming down? asking in respct to Maria, thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
634. wayfaringstranger
6:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Where's Gavelston?
Just N of Corpus Christi....not too far from Seguin TX.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
632. ecflweatherfan
6:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Good afternoon all... been a few days since I checked in. Well, it looks like Maria is really struggling out there, although there is a nice (albeit exposed) spin to the clouds there. Maria will continue west for a while, until she begins to re-develop storms over the circulation, expect models will trend farther west to account for this as well. Katia is, by definition, going to be a fish storm. And Nate... well? IDK about him, something not right about him. Mobile or the FL Panhandle seems like a somewhat decent bet for right now based on the models. IDK, anyone's guess.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
631. MississippiWx
6:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Nate recon:

180500 1943N 09217W 9522 00407 9974 +232 //// 012005 006 008 001 05
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
630. Neapolitan
6:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting thesituation:
My husband has his boat at a Marina in Gavelston. Should he pull it out of the water this weekend because of the storm coming?

Where's Gavelston?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
629. bythegraceofgod
6:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Er ya. Especially since a good portion of the adult population wasn't even born when Agnes did her thing. It WAS nearly 40 years ago.... Using past weather examples to warn people during a real time emergency situation and to tell them where they should evacuate from? That's a wee bit... irresponsible?

A map of shaded counties regions would probably be more helpful because I'm sure a lot of people are like, "wth is Agnes"?


I read an interesting book about survival. One statistic that stood out was the people who died in New Orleans during Katrina. The vast majority of them were over 65 and it wasn't that they couldn't get out. They had been through hurricanes their whole life and made it just fine so why leave now.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
628. AegirsGal
6:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting jadedANDcynical:
All joking aside, we REALLY need the rain here in Texas.

I took this photo the day before yesterday. The dark line hugging the horizon is the smoke fromthe fires in Bastrop:



And this next one shows a crack in m driveway that began this summer completely closed and the two sides were level with each other:



The crack is now approximately 3/8 inch in width and has about 1/2 inch in height difference. I don't wan to think about what may be happening beneath my hardwood floors and tile :/

My unsolicited advice is to get a soaker hose for your foundation. Most areas with water restrictions allow them.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
627. ironbanks
6:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
The GFS is bad for us with Nate. Just got rid of the high water from Lee. I have a bad feeling Nate could spin up fast once it starts moving.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
626. redwagon
6:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting jadedANDcynical:
All joking aside, we REALLY need the rain here in Texas.

I took this photo the day before yesterday. The dark line hugging the horizon is the smoke fromthe fires in Bastrop:



And this next one shows a crack in m driveway that began this summer completely closed and the two sides were level with each other:



The crack is now approximately 3/8 inch in width and has about 1/2 inch in height difference. I don't wan to think about what may be happening beneath my hardwood floors and tile :/


N winds have picked up again this morning and chopper recon flights have resumed overhead.....
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3273
623. Dakster
6:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx:
The models are going to have wild swings. If they see a stronger trough, they are going to move to the Central Gulf Coast. If they see a weaker trough the next run, they are going to move to Mexico. The situation we have is very delicate and subtle differences are going to make huge impacts on the models from run to run.


Possible, but I am really interested in the HH data for the 8pm run tonight. That *might* help us get a clearer picture on what should be going on.

This will also help with what Maria should do, since she is also a potential threat to CONUS (and others along the way).
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10409
622. xtremeweathertracker
6:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
BLOG UPDATE:

Katia, Maria, Nate Video Update!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
621. PanhandleChuck
6:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting basti11:


why scare the woman for nothing ...there is no chance NATE will go into HOUSTON or for that matter the NORTHERN GULFCOAST..the reason why i left that slim 2% is in case NATE would stall in the BOC then it would be able to lift northward..but that is a very slim chance and that would not occur for 5 days...so if this happen she would have plenty of time to get prepared...but not now...all you doing is making this woman worry for nothing...


And all you are doing is contributing to complacency!
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
620. bird72
6:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
12z GFDL:


HOUR: .0 LONG: -50.32 LAT: 12.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.73
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -51.82 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.47 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.49
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -53.35 LAT: 12.85 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.18
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -55.06 LAT: 12.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.39
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -56.96 LAT: 13.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.70
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -58.67 LAT: 14.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.42
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -59.97 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.94
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -61.63 LAT: 15.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.90
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -62.95 LAT: 16.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.43 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.63
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -64.35 LAT: 17.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.44
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -65.41 LAT: 18.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.39HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -66.88 LAT: 18.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.12
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -68.30 LAT: 19.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.55
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -69.80 LAT: 20.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.21
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -71.01 LAT: 20.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.10
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -72.31 LAT: 21.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.30
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -73.53 LAT: 22.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.78 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.99
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -74.50 LAT: 22.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.60
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -75.53 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.43
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 23.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.48
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -77.22 LAT: 24.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.46
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -77.85 LAT: 24.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.43

:O :O :O doom!

Member Since: August 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 389
619. nash28
6:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
I'm really curious to see if Maria can hold it together. That LLC is really booking it.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
618. Seflhurricane
6:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
has recon arrived to maria yet ????
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
617. 69Viking
6:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Wow, Texas wildfires now have claimed nearly 1,400 homes. Nate please go to Texas with a lot of rain.

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
616. wayfaringstranger
6:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Love reading the blog while rockin out to some Stevie Ray and Muddie Waters.

Too bad tropical systems can not be named BB King or Johnny Hooker.

Any word on the hurricane hunter plane into Nate?

Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
615. skook
6:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

Near Hershey pa.


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 365
614. MississippiWx
6:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
The models are going to have wild swings. If they see a stronger trough, they are going to move to the Central Gulf Coast. If they see a weaker trough the next run, they are going to move to Mexico. The situation we have is very delicate and subtle differences are going to make huge impacts on the models from run to run.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
612. uptxcoast
6:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
For everyone in the Houston area concerned about Nate, you should be.

1. A hit to our east would be devasting for reasons listed above.
2. A hit from a hurricane. While not likely anything in the Gulf should be watched.

My OPINION based on data right NOW is as following

70% chance hitting Mexico
28% chance Hitting the Northern gulf East of Texas
2% chance of some sort of craziness going on.

This could change in a heartbeat once the HH get into Nate again.

You should always be prepared for a Hurricane.
Now, you need to be prepared for an evacuation for fire. If you live in Texas it would be a good idea to keep all important paperwork with you at all times. I have Insurance policies, Hard Drive, Birth Certificates, etc in a bag right next to me. Pictures are in the car.

The point is we need to be prepared for a number of things and nothing can be ruled out.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 235
611. Caner
6:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Patrap:


Well thanx,but to be sure,

The truth is larger than Ficton


Being called a Marxist isnt what I call,being social friend.

Pass the tabasco please.


True, but in all fairness, it probably wouldn't have gotten to that point without help 8^)

em/Ships Patrap a case of Tabasco from Louisiana.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
610. Dakster
6:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting P451:


The wall might not budge. The water might rise the billionth of a millimeter it needs to over top it though.


Come on now... It looks like it could handle AT LEAST 2 billionths of a millimeter before overflowing.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10409
608. 69Viking
6:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Current Dry Air in the GOM.

Link


I'm no weather expert and even I can see the dry air being squeezed out! Although I love this dry air average highs are 90 this time of year not 80 so it's only a matter of time before the humidity is back and the dry air is gone.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
605. scooster67
6:09 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting Dakster:


IE? What's that? Ohhhh that's right, an old, obsolete, broken browser that takes forever to load a webpage. And even then messes it all up...

Once you go Chrome or FireFox there is no looking back to IE. (Unfortunately, I do have to use it at work for some things)

FLDEWEY - Getting ready to make sure you have an idea where the shutters are now? Not that I would dust them off just yet.
I am at work usung IE now. Not Good :)
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
604. Patrap
6:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting jpsb:
Sorry Patrap, I did not mean to insult you at all, I even like you kindof ;)


Same here, but I Argued no politics,,only the facts of the article twin posted.


That was the root source of the converse,..

Im gonna need nuther bowl of this shrimp creole,,O man itsa goo.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
603. iamajeepmom
6:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


You can't be a real pilot 'cause real pilots have handles like ImaRealPilot, or CoolFlyDude...and their avatars are either of a plane or of themselves flying a plane.

...Busted!


fry fry, fry fry, I'm going to get me some fry fries ... (every ONE sing along now!) Did the idaho spud finally get fried? :)
Member Since: June 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
602. Neapolitan
6:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
Quoting scooster67:


Nea,

Not sure if I ever got around to thanking you for the Google chrome advice. All my IE problems are gone. :)

Glad to help. I keep four different browsers open on my desktop for different things, but Chrome is my default, and I'm liking it more every day. (I only use IE for a few work-related sites that insist on forcing visitors to use that browser--but those Luddites are, thankfully, vanishing.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
601. jadedANDcynical
6:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2011
All joking aside, we REALLY need the rain here in Texas.

I took this photo the day before yesterday. The dark line hugging the horizon is the smoke fromthe fires in Bastrop:



And this next one shows a crack in m driveway that began this summer completely closed and the two sides were level with each other:



The crack is now approximately 3/8 inch in width and has about 1/2 inch in height difference. I don't wan to think about what may be happening beneath my hardwood floors and tile :/

Member Since: September 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
Quoting wolftribe2009:
I honestly would not be surprised to see Maria weaken back to a Depression. I also would not be surprised for her to continue through the Caribbean instead or turning northward.
The ECMWF was showing this a couple days ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I would wish for Texas. Mexico isn't going to give Texas much of a change.


We can all wish, but unfortunately, Nate isn't going to Texas. It's either Mexico or Northern Gulf, with the models trending back towards Mexico this afternoon.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MonsterTrough:


I agree wolfie, everyone in the gulf should be on the alert. I said it yesterday. However, 'she' acted as the shutters were going up based on our answers, and this dude acted like she was 98% safe, don't worry. My point is that if I think I may need to evac, put up shutters or life is at risk, my first place to look is not our blog.
She is not a woman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
595. jpsb
Quoting Patrap:


Well thanx,but to be sure,

The truth is larger than Ficton


Being called a Marxist isnt what I call,being social friend.

Pass the tabasco please.
Sorry Patrap, I did not mean to insult you at all, I even like you kindof ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting basti11:



ok answer me this question if you think that NATE will make landfall on the NORTHERN GULFCOAST what is NATE going to do when he encounters all the DRY AIR and SHEAR if he tries to move north...it will take 5 days for the dry air to pull back north and the shear to slacken...so i would like and answer im waiting to see why you think this will happen...if you want my reasons ill be glad to let you know although i posted the 2 this morning...


You really should look at the extended forecasts along the Gulf Coast and pay attention to water vapor loops. The water vapor loops clearly show the dry air be squeezed out of the Gulf. The extended forecast for my area of the Gulf Coast shows chances of rain like this, 0% tomorrow, 0% Saturday, 30% Sunday and 40% Monday. By that forecast that tells me the dry air will be out of the Gulf in 3 days NOT 5 days. Try looking at some forecast variables to make your point instead of just barking off what you think without any justication.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
Quoting Neapolitan:



If I'm wrong, I'll admit it...


You can't be a real pilot 'cause real pilots have handles like ImaRealPilot, or CoolFlyDude...and their avatars are either of a plane or of themselves flying a plane.

...Busted!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
592. jpsb
Quoting Caner:


Patrap,

He hadn't said a thing about politics, all he did was ask someone to backup a claim they made, then you piped in and started dropping names and accusations.

I try to avoid politics at all costs, ignoring them and not appreciating them are not mutually exclusive, however. It is easy to get sucked in.

Your decision to 'report him' smacks of hypocrisy, since in my view you started it; so consider your accusatory political comment counter-reported just to balance it.

Sorry, but it's only fair.
Thank you.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Caner:


Patrap,

He hadn't said a thing about politics, all he did was ask someone to backup a claim they made, then you piped in and started dropping names and accusations.

I try to avoid politics at all costs, ignoring them and not appreciating them are not mutually exclusive, however. It is easy to get sucked in.

Your decision to 'report him' smacks of hypocrisy, since in my view you started it; so consider your accusatory political comment counter-reported just to balance it.

Sorry, but it's only fair.


Well thanx,but to be sure,

The truth is larger than Ficton


Being called a Marxist isnt what I call,being social friend.

Pass the tabasco please.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
Quoting scooster67:


Nea,

Not sure if I ever got around to thanking you for the Google chrome advice. All my IE problems are gone. :)


IE? What's that? Ohhhh that's right, an old, obsolete, broken browser that takes forever to load a webpage. And even then messes it all up...

Once you go Chrome or FireFox there is no looking back to IE. (Unfortunately, I do have to use it at work for some things)

FLDEWEY - Getting ready to make sure you have an idea where the shutters are now? Not that I would dust them off just yet.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10409
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
Someone direct Nate to TX...or MX. Immediately, please. I don't want a repeat of 05...or 08 for that matter. :(


I would wish for Texas. Mexico isn't going to give Texas much of a change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


hate to interject but what if 7 days from now he/she is right, and didn't wander with the preditction? Then what?


Nothing... its fine to make predictions... its NOT fine to make gauarantees. There are alot of people that dont know the difference. If he ends up being right its not because he's some sort of expert its because he got lucky... this far out everywhere on gulf is fair game for landfall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I honestly would not be surprised to see Maria weaken back to a Depression. I also would not be surprised for her to continue through the Caribbean instead or turning northward.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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