1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

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An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Bryn Athyn, PA (HighRdGeo)
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning
Bryn Athyn, PA

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I think Recon may find Maria more organized than satellite presentation , jmo
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734. skook

Link

Knoebels Amusement Resort
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 365
ATCF says Nate is up to 60 knots:

AL, 15, 2011090818, , BEST, 0, 197N, 923W, 60, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 45, 30, 0, 1012, 150, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NATE, M,

...Maria is hanging in at a TS-minimum 35 knots:

AL, 14, 2011090818, , BEST, 0, 131N, 518W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 75, 1010, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, S,

...and Katia is still a hurricane:

AL, 12, 2011090818, , BEST, 0, 342N, 700W, 75, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 60, 1010, 210, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA, D,
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732. HCW
Quoting mobiledave:
Does anyone on here have an M.S.or Ph.D. in Meteorology or any other atmospheric science?


No but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night
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do we have any info on Maria from Recon or is recon not going
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Quoting Grothar:


Good to see you back...
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Quoting Caner:


No, but i did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.


LOL
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Just N of Corpus Christi....not too far from Seguin TX.


Your "just north" and "not too far" need a little work.
Galveston to Corpus is a by over 246 miles.

And Galveston to Seguin is a bit over 215 miles.

Even Texas is bigger in Texas.
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Hey Grothar! feeling good still?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
724. Caner
Quoting mobiledave:
Does anyone on here have an M.S.or Ph.D. in Meteorology or any atmospheric science?


No, but i did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
Quoting MississippiWx:
1940N 09208W 9524 00404 9969


I hate BOC Storms, I'm jealous
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Quoting basti11:



NATE will not gain much LATITUDE because of that strong blocking HIGH OVER TEXAS...maybe will just move south into the YUCATAN ..there is a chance of that happening..


There is no strong blocking high over Texas. It is displaced to the Southwest over Mexico.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Talk about a "Y" in the Road! JUST MAYBE TEXAS?


I think I just vomited in my mouth a little.
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25.6 RIVER OVERTOPS FLOOD WALLS IN DOWNTOWN BINGHAMTON
Current stage is at 25.63, and rising slowly, so Binghamton, NY Flood walls, at some places are overtopping.
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From 209° at 78 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 89.7 mph) 18.5°C*
(~ 65.3°F*) -* 80 knots
(~ 92.0 mph) 58 knots*
(~ 66.7 mph*) 6 mm/hr*
(~ 0.24 in/hr*) 56.5 knots* (~ 65.0 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 72.5%*
18:16:00Z 19.383N 91.800W 952.8 mb
(~ 28.14 inHg) 427 meters
(~ 1,401 feet) - - From 206° at 80 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 92.0 mph) 18.0°C*
(~ 64.4°F*) -* 81 knots
(~ 93.1 mph) 52 knots*
(~ 59.8 mph*) 5 mm/hr*
(~ 0.20 in/hr*) 51.4 knots* (~ 59.1 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 64.2%*
18:16:30Z 19.383N 91.783W 952.2 mb
(~ 28.12 inHg) 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) - - From 202° at 77 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 88.5 mph) 17.5°C*
(~ 63.5°F*) -* 79 knots
(~ 90.8 mph) 60 knots*
(~ 69.0 mph*) 10 mm/hr*
(~ 0.39 in/hr*) 58.5 knots* (~ 67.3 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 75.9%*
18:17:00Z 19.367N 91.783W 952.6 mb
(~ 28.13 inHg) 433 meters
(~ 1,421 feet) - - From 202° at 75 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 86.2 mph) 17.2°C*
(~ 63.0°F*) -* 76 knots
(~ 87.4 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 12 mm/hr
(~ 0.47 in/hr) 58.2 knots (~ 67.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 77.6%
18:17:30Z 19.350N 91.783W 952.6 mb
(~ 28.13 inHg) 434 meters
(~ 1,424 feet) - - From 204° at 74 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 85.1 mph) 17.1°C*
(~ 62.8°F*) -* 76 knots
(~ 87.4 mph) 57 knots
(~ 65.5 mph) 15 mm/hr
(~ 0.59 in/hr) 55.5 knots (~ 63.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 75.0%
18:18:00Z 19.333N 91.783W 952.7 mb
(~ 28.13 inHg) 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) - - From 207° at 75 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 86.2 mph) 17.1°C*
(~ 62.8°F*) -* 77 knots
(~ 88.5 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 16 mm/hr
(~ 0.63 in/hr) 57.5 knots (~ 66.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 76.6%
18:18:30Z 19.317N 91.800W 952.4 mb
(~ 28.12 inHg) 444 meters
(~ 1,457 feet) - - From 206° at 75 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 86.2 mph) 16.9°C*
(~ 62.4°F*) -* 75 knots
(~ 86.2 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 18 mm/hr
(~ 0.71 in/hr) 59.0 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 78.7%
18:19:00Z 19.300N 91.800W 952.4 mb
(~ 28.12 inHg) 446 meters
(~ 1,463 feet) - - From 210° at 75 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 86.2 mph) 17.0°C*
(~ 62.6°F*) -* 76 knots
(~ 87.4 mph) 60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph) 18 mm/hr
(~ 0.71 in/hr) 59.2 knots (~ 68.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 78.9%
18:19:30Z 19.283N 91.800W 949.8 mb
(~ 28.05 inHg) 472 meters
(~ 1,549 feet) 1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 213° at 73 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 83.9 mph) 17.2°C*
(~ 63.0°F*) -* 74 knots
(~ 85.1 mph) 58 knots*
(~ 66.7 mph*) 19 mm/hr*
(~ 0.75 in/hr*) 57.2 knots* (~ 65.8 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 78.4%*
18:20:00Z 19.267N 91.783W 934.5 mb
(~ 27.60 inHg) 620 meters
(~ 2,034 feet) - - From 218° at 74 knots
(From the SW at ~ 85.1 mph) 17.0°C*
(~ 62.6°F*) -* 75 knots
(~ 86.2 mph) 55 knots*
(~ 63.2 mph*) 16 mm/hr*
(~ 0.63 in/hr*) 54.3 knots* (~ 62.4 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 73.3%*
18:20:30Z 19.267N 91.750W 920.8 mb
(~ 27.19 inHg) 759 meters
(~ 2,490 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 220° at 75 knots
(From the SW at ~ 86.2 mph) 17.5°C*
(~ 63.5°F*) -* 76 knots
(~ 87.4 mph) 54 knots
(~ 62.1 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 53.3 knots (~ 61.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 71.1%
18:21:00Z 19.250N 91.717W 907.6 mb
(~ 26.80 inHg) 888 meters
(~ 2,913 feet) 1005.2 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 221° at 73 knots
(From the SW at ~ 83.9 mph) 18.6°C*
(~ 65.5°F*) -* 74 knots
(~ 85.1 mph) 53 knots
(~ 60.9 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 52.3 knots (~ 60.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 71.6%
18:21:30Z 19.233N 91.700W 891.0 mb
(~ 26.31 inHg) 1,050 meters
(~ 3,445 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 223° at 68 knots
(From the SW at ~ 78.2 mph) 18.4°C*
(~ 65.1°F*) -* 70 knots
(~ 80.5 mph) 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 49.5 knots (~ 57.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 72.9%
18:22:00Z 19.217N 91.683W 872.3 mb
(~ 25.76 inHg) 1,232 meters
(~ 4,042 feet) 1005.0 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 220° at 64 knots
(From the SW at ~ 73.6 mph) 18.0°C*
(~ 64.4°F*) -* 65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph) 54 knots
(~ 62.1 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 53.2 knots (~ 61.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 83.1%
18:22:30Z 19.200N 91.667W 854.8 mb
(~ 25.24 inHg) 1,412 meters
(~ 4,633 feet) - - From 219° at 66 knots
(From the SW at ~ 75.9 mph) 15.7°C*
(~ 60.3°F*) -* 68 knots
(~ 78.2 mph) 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 49.5 knots (~ 56.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 75.0%
18:23:00Z 19.183N 91.650W 844.2 mb
(~ 24.93 inHg) 1,523 meters
(~ 4,997 feet) - - From 220° at 61 knots
(From the SW at ~ 70.1 mph) 15.4°C*
(~ 59.7°F*) -* 65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph) 50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 46.9 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 76.9%
18:23:30Z 19.167N 91.633W 843.3 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,532 meters
(~ 5,026 feet) 1006.5 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 223° at 55 knots
(From the SW at ~ 63.2 mph) 15.8°C*
(~ 60.4°F*) -* 56 knots
(~ 64.4 mph) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 47.1 knots (~ 54.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 85.7%
18:24:00Z 19.133N 91.600W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,541 meters
(~ 5,056 feet) 1006.5 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 227° at 55 knots
(From the SW at ~ 63.2 mph) 15.9°C*
(~ 60.6°F*) -* 57 knots
(~ 65.5 mph) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 46.3 knots (~ 53.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 84.2%
18:24:30Z 19.117N 91.583W 843.3 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,536 meters
(~ 5,039 feet) 1006.7 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 228° at 57 knots
(From the SW at ~ 65.5 mph) 15.7°C*
(~ 60.3°F*) -* 57 knots
(~ 65.5 mph) 48 knots
(~ 55.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 48.0 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 84.2%
18:25:00Z 19.100N 91.567W 842.7 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,542 meters
(~ 5,059 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 230° at 58 knots
(From the SW at ~ 66.7 mph) 15.7°C
(~ 60.3°F) 15.7°C
(~ 60.3°F) 58 knots
(~ 66.7 mph) 47 knots
(~ 54.0 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 47.0 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
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18:16:00Z 19.383N 91.800W 952.8 mb
(~ 28.14 inHg) 427 meters
(~ 1,401 feet) - - From 206° at 80 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 92.0 mph)

recon from Nate
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Does anyone on here have an M.S.or Ph.D. in Meteorology or any other atmospheric science?
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1940N 09208W 9524 00404 9969
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Quoting jpsb:
Nate might just be the smallest hurricane I ever saw. If he does not grow in size he won't affect much other then where he makes landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.htm l

The shading shows a 'normal' cyclone under the convection.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3177
Quoting lordhuracan01:
taking the dress




If I could I would bring her more covering clothes! I don't want her to get a cold! ;)
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Some local analysis of the latest report from the CPC. La Nina is a go. Here's the meat of the article:

Unfortunately the main players that caused the very intense drought last winter are coming back this winter in the form of another potential La Niña condition. We currently are favoring a redeveloping moderate to strong La Niña this winter based largely on another weather phenomena called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. The PDO is a large scale weather cycle over the northern Pacific Ocean which demonstrates alternating periods of cold and warm cycles, which can typically last 10 to 20 years. When the PDO is in its cold phase La Niñas typically are more frequent and intense while the reverse is true during the warm phase of the PDO. For this year the PDO has shifted toward the negative phase, which is signaling a redeveloping La Niña later this fall as colder than normal water over the eastern Pacific Ocean is funneled southward into the eastern Tropical Pacific.

(Full Article)
Link

Texan's will looks like raisins in a year's time. Though maybe not as purple.
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711. Caner
Quoting jpsb:
Nate might just be the smallest hurricane I ever saw. If he does not grow in size he won't affect much other then where he makes landfall.


Remember Camille?

Well, i don't mean "remember", necessarily, but that sucker was tiny, and boy was she wound up. Sustained winds of 190.

Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
CIMSS ADT is putting Nate at 35 knots; SAB puts it at the same level; TAFB scores a little better at 45 knots.

Given that recon has now reliably pegged the storm at 60 knots, I find that all fascinating. It's been more common this season to find the Dvorak estimates slightly outpacing the actual intensification. In this case, Nate is producing winds much stronger than its overall structure would seem to make likely.
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Quoting P451:
Fairly high rainrate with this one. May be contaminated even though not flagged.

Seems like Nate is a 60mph if not 65mph TS though.

This is probably a dumb question but how does a high rainrate cause a reading to be contaminated? Thanks.
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Talk about a "Y" in the Road! JUST MAYBE TEXAS?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Oops. It seems like I get the 666th post a lot. Sign maybe?


Time to play the pick 3 ....
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 408
taking the dress


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MARIA would better take NATE as an example to follow.. CATL storms always weak!! (humor)
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Bad sat.
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Quoting jpsb:
Nate might just be the smallest hurricane I ever saw. If he does not grow in size he won't affect much other then where he makes landfall.


When he gains latitude, he will more than likely grow in size. He can only be so big right now with the proximity to land and the dry air to his north.
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Quoting basti11:


NO A 98% NOT HITTING TEXAS NOW...


"Doctors say he's got a 50/50 chance of living. But there's only a 10% chance of that."

Honestly, at this point, with models pointing all over the place, Nate's future is uncertain to say the least. I see it hitting somewhere either in FL, AL, MS, LA, TX, Mexico, or Cuba. How's that? ;-)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Nate is very close to hurricane status. Never underestimate the effects of the Bay of Campeche.
So the models flipped back to Mexico for now. But Nate continues to get stronger, I guess more flip flopping back and forth should be expected over the next few days or have they picked up on something?
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
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696. Caner
Quoting basti11:


NO A 98% NOT HITTING TEXAS NOW...


But that's not what you *said*.

what you *said* was "so as i see it there is no way for NATE to go except into TEXAS"

So the big question here is, if that was a typo, or you misspoke, does that error fall within your 2% chance calculation, or will you have to factor in an additional percentage point to account for typo's?

8^)
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
695. jpsb
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nate is very close to hurricane status. Never underestimate the effects of the Bay of Campeche.
Nate might just be the smallest hurricane I ever saw. If he does not grow in size he won't affect much other then where he makes landfall.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
693. skook
Knoebels floods pretty easy, and here is their message on their website

We have suffered extensive flooding

from tropical storm Lee.

The waters are beginning to recede

but there is a lot of work to be done.

We will not be open this weekend

September 10 & 11.

We will keep you posted as to our status here. Link
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 365
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nate is very close to hurricane status. Never underestimate the effects of the Bay of Campeche.


See: Marco
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Quoting Dakster:


Now you did it. Put Nate's information on post # 666...


heheheheheee now that is funny :)
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Nate is very close to hurricane status. Never underestimate the effects of the Bay of Campeche.
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12Z ECMWF is quite weak with Maria while Nate is off to MX and into the E PAC.
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687. jpsb
Quoting P451:


Time to put the shutters back up in NOLA.



Wow
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
Quoting nash28:


Ok this is getting ridiculous...

How ANYONE can call themselves a Republican or Democrat in today's day and age is stunning!!!! Any one of you who believes "your party" is righteous needs to have your heads examined. If you look/looked up to GWB or Obama, you need to have your heads examined. Neither party gives a rats stinky rear about you, and the quicker you figure that out, the less mentally constipated you will be. Mkay? Great.

Back to the weather... AGAIN!


All political parties should be abolished and everyone should run as independents.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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