Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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Quoting Chicklit:
good morning, WUblers.
Excerpt from Maria Discussion 5 a.m.:

IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS USUAL...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK 4 TO 5 DAYS FROM NOW. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH... MOVING OFF THE U.S EAST COAST... IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS. IF THE TROUGH TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...IT COULD DELAY THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.

This seems to be a pattern.


Regarding the person who wants his legs cut off to avoid school, this must be a boy; a girl would just say she has a headache. (ex. of why boys are particularly dangerous to themselves until they get out of their teens)


Hey! lol
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
good morning, WUblers.
Excerpt from Maria Discussion 5 a.m.:

IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS USUAL...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK 4 TO 5 DAYS FROM NOW. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH... MOVING OFF THE U.S EAST COAST... IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS. IF THE TROUGH TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...IT COULD DELAY THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.

This seems to be a pattern.


Regarding the person who wants his legs cut off to avoid school, this must be a boy; a girl would just say she has a headache. (ex. of why boys are particularly dangerous to themselves until they get out of their teens)
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the M storm sure looks like a open wave this AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
FWIW, Katia's ACE has now surpassed Katrina's. (It'll also surpass Irene's at the 11AM TWO to take the top spot for the year, unless it's deemed extra-tropical by then.)

On a side note: much as I enjoy seeing those black "Remote Linking Disabled" boxes, perhaps we should have a moratorium on attempting to hotlink to images from AmericanWX.com. Ya think? ;-)
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Does anyone know when the high moves away from the coast of Texas?
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Quoting wxobsvps:
GFS is crazy

Link


GFS is not crazy it is just giving a posible track discussed by Levi in his blog yeaterday. Remember, the models will go nuts for days trying to pinpoint where Nate will end up and todays run will be different than tomorrow runs especially when predicting GOMEX systems. What I am having a hard time with is with the intensity forecasted. The cold weather and unseasonably dry air we have been experiencing should not allow for a system to get this strong and I think that this is why the GFS is predicting this trajectory, because it is overintensifying the system. I expect a weaker system to perhaps follow a quite different track. Nevertheless this is definitely worth watching.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
the dry are ait is forecast to move out with the frontal system
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Quoting Tazmanian:


That is the most depressing ensemble map i've ever seen. I think all of the "governor pray for rain days" have had the reverse effect here in Tx. Geez.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
wow,that 06 GFS was a trip, at 384 hours has 3 storms still. caribbean,southern bahamas and mid atlantic
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Link
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Good morning all. Have a thought for all those rain sooaked emergency workers out there today trying to help bring order out of the chaos for the victims of these storms. I haven't read much about how the Bahamas fared. It seemed as though once the storms passed all news about them stopped. I'm sure they're struggling with all the damage as well. And shadow, laughed at loud at your solution for taking tests. Clever clever clever. Maybe your teach will give you points for making her laugh and you won't have to take test at all.
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Nate is making a run for intensification. COC looks to have moved underneath the convection now. Could become a strong TS later today, Saints vs Packers tonight, can't wait for football to mean something again, preseason felt too long for me. Off to work.
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so gfs went all the way from mexico to AL/fl panhandle?
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So it seems that the Euro and the GFS doesn't want to be in agreement....Euro goes to North Gulf, GFS goes to Mexico. Euro finally agrees to go with the rest into Mexico, GFS says, if you are going there, then I am going here. Make up your mind, you two!
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Off to teach. Everyone have a great Thursday!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Since the satellite era, 1983 had just four named storms, while 1982 had just two hurricanes out of its six named storms.


And prior to that, the record is none. Last held by the lowest season in the extended 1851-record, 1914.
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too small, that was supposed to be full size,my first time on photobucket...lol
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OWL EYES HOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOO


hoped it worked,sorry for the black boxes
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Hmm. Anyone know the record for least amount of hurricanes in a season?

Since the satellite era, 1983 had just four named storms, while 1982 had just two hurricanes out of its six named storms.
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947. MahFL
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Saints game tonight! And I have to be at my daughter's volleyball game...


I have to sleep early...as I am working a extra half night shift....so your not alone !
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Quoting shadoclown45:

I live in NY will pay airfare...

With all the rain up there do i need to rent a boat or a car lol
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60 degrees at my house in Levy county. Lovin it! :)
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Saints game tonight! And I have to be at my daughter's volleyball game...


Saints game tonight and I have class! Now back to Nate :) (watching from Gulf Breeze, FL)
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To my eyes it looks like Nate is trying to back in to the Yucitan P. With all that dry air to the North it will be hard for him to go to far in that direction
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Hmm. Anyone know the record for least amount of hurricanes in a season?
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could someone post the visible of the triplets well maybe twins maria is ding some
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6z stills shows the carribean system moving due north out of the carrribean out to sea, makes no sense and the 18z from last night had it over cuba
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


UH OH OWL EYES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

can't see picture
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Yeah, its the black box over here. I am not sure why they would show up normal on your side and not normal here. Thanks for trying to give us pics, always appreciated.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


are they showing up as the black box? im sorry if they are. guess they think most folks won't go that route and they will save a lot of bandwidth,again im sorry,they showing up normal here.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



you not showeing us nothing your showing us a black box all so they may it too where you can post from there site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Goldenblack:
Hey Joe, you are encountering the joys of image attachment in WU. You will need to post the image to flickr, photobucket, or some other online image storing site. Then use the image tool and paste the URL or http:// address for the picture, from the the chosen site.



are they showing up as the black box? im sorry if they are. guess they think most folks won't go that route and they will save a lot of bandwidth,again im sorry,they showing up normal here.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I think so 20%


Thanks HHJ! Wondering if it has a chance, or if it'll get destroyed by or sucked into Katia or Maria (more likely Katia,I'm thinking, since Maria's weaker, at the moment). It's kind of in a troublesome looking spot, to my untrained eyes.
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Quoting severstorm:

shadoclown where you at. I'm in Tampa I'll do it. 70 outside this morning

I live in NY will pay airfare...
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Quoting HurricanePookie:


Morning, that's solid advice! Drinking my nectar of the gods now. What's the blob between Katia and Maria? Is that our leftover yellow circle from yesterday morn?


I think so 20%
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Quoting CoopsWife:
921 - LOL - don't we wish we could!!! Long range just looks worse and worse for TX, doesn't it? Think it will be a while before they get any appreciable amount of moisture.


Morning! Yes, it does. At the rate of the fires, we'll lose half of Texas to burning. It's getting very scary for so many of them. Heartbreaking for too many already.
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Hey Joe, you are encountering the joys of image attachment in WU. You will need to post the image to flickr, photobucket, or some other online image storing site. Then use the image tool and paste the URL or http:// address for the picture, from the the chosen site.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
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Quoting aquak9:
g'morning all, amen ais to the almost friday.

Never touch WU without coffee.


Morning, that's solid advice! Drinking my nectar of the gods now. What's the blob between Katia and Maria? Is that our leftover yellow circle from yesterday morn?
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HHjoe,

We all just get black boxes when you post from there. They no longer allow you to link to it.
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921 - LOL - don't we wish we could!!! Long range just looks worse and worse for TX, doesn't it? Think it will be a while before they get any appreciable amount of moisture.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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