Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Am I the only person who doesn't have jr on thier ignore list. Time to start using the "POOF BUTTON" LOL


Nah, I've been giving him the benefit of the doubt too. I think that may change shortly...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Speed shear has really taken its toll on Maria. The low level center is well removed from the convection. The SHIPS analyzed shear to be 14 knots from the southwest coupled with the storm's forward motion really disrupting the system overall.



Drak,will she start to slowdown soon?
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back later
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
I also smell a track change for Maria.
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Katia = fish storm oops I mean a UK storm
Maria = fish storm
Nate = a Mexican Cutie



and POOF
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
sorry for yelling lol forgot caps ill put my puerto rican coffee down now lol
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Good morning, I see 3 of our more reliable models the HWRF, GFDL, and GFS have shifted to a Northward track that would take Nate up towards the Gulf Coast anywhere from Louisiana to the Panhandle of FL...I smell a track change.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Am I the only person who doesn't have jr on thier ignore list. Time to start using the "POOF BUTTON" LOL
I THINK YOUR RIGHT POOF AWAY
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Quoting weatherjr:
The NHC 8:00 AM report is somewhat contradictory. They put a TS watch for some of the leeward/windwards and at the same time they accept that the system could be degenerating to just a tropical wave (It is obvious it is now a weak tropical wave). There is NO necessity to send a recon airplane this afternoon. satellite pesentation is very very obvious to conclude it is NO more a tropical storm or TD.


Am I the only person who doesn't have jr on thier ignore list. Time to start using the "POOF BUTTON" LOL
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Maria's COC is exposed. If she wraps convection around it she may survive but her forward speed is making her circulation outrun the convection.
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1011. Drakoen
Speed shear has really taken its toll on Maria. The low level center is well removed from the convection. The SHIPS analyzed shear to be 14 knots from the southwest coupled with the storm's forward motion really disrupting the system overall.

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Quoting weatherjr:
The NHC 8:00 AM report is somewhat contradictory. They put a TS watch for some of the leeward/windwards and at the same time they accept that the system could be degenerating to just a tropical wave (It is obvious it is now a weak tropical wave). There is NO necessity to send a recon airplane this afternoon. satellite pesentation is very very obvious to conclude it is NO more a tropical storm or TD.
Ok first off if maria degenerates IT WILL NOT BE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE obviously you know zero about the weather here in the tropics an ex-maria (if it does not stregnthen) will still be a STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FLOODING AND SQUALLY WEATHER.
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Quoting Drakoen:


It's not really moving towards Mexico or any direction at the moment. However, the parabolic shape of the coastline helps with the torque allowing the system to spin up faster.


Ah, okay.

================================================= ====

Maria faces a similar problem to Colin from last year -- Got too far ahead of itself, but then slowed down and regenerated. IF Maria does open up into a tropical wave, I think Maria could follow what Colin did.
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Katia = fish storm oops I mean a UK storm
Maria = fish storm
Nate = a Mexican Cutie

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Nate in its incubator
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1005. Drakoen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Drak, correct me if I am wrong, but when systems move towards Mexico in a SWward fashion, doesn't that help with a system strengthening? I remember Alex did something similar, and ramped up really quickly before landfall.


It's not really moving towards Mexico or any direction at the moment. However, the parabolic shape of the coastline helps with the torque allowing the system to spin up faster.
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for the M storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
the sun is now up on the Visible loop
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Re #994

HWRF : The Hope Wet Rain Falls on Texas Model!

Am tellin ya. Hope works at least some of the time.
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Lots of schools and roads closed across the mid-Hudson Valley and Catskills this morning ...some schools delayed their opening day for nearly 2 weeks. The heavy band of rain across western Pennsylvania shifted eastward... 4-8 inches of rain on top of everything Irene did. Parts of the New York State Thruway are already closed in the valley... the Mohawk River is threatening to shut it down between Syracuse and Albany.

Been raining here for the past 3-4 days... Could get interesting with rain still streaming out of the Chesapeake Bay region
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Drak, correct me if I am wrong, but when systems move towards Mexico in a SWward fashion, doesn't that help with a system strengthening? I remember Alex did something similar, and ramped up really quickly before landfall.
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GFDL 06z close up

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Quoting Chicklit:


yup. no kidding.
check the ER stats if you don't believe me.
anyway, Nate is still going anywhere but TX.
and the northeast does not need another soaker.
unbelievable.
I talked to a friend up in Pa. last night and she said they are having severe flooding.
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Quoting Drakoen:
HWRF:



GFDL:





DOOOM
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My forecast for Tropical Storm Nate:

INIT 08/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 70 KT 90 MPH

My forecast for Tropical Storm Maria:

INIT 08/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
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HWRF:



GFDL:

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Quoting Tazmanian:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.


HOLD ON MARIA...
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Quoting weatherjr:
Remember: This year is the year of the many sick tropical systems.
well sick tropical systems are still dangerous as we have learned
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437


shear more favorable on Maria's more southerly side.
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Pretty big shift on the GFS and HWRF, and GFDL 06z runs.
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Maria almost gone.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 50.0W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...
AND SAINT KITTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA IS A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0
WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL APPROACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD BE
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE MARIA LATE
TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
seems like a lot of models switched back to north with nate,they could switch back as he not really doing a whole lot
I hope thers a chance that he stays meandering awhile and then the high moves away from us in Texas and Nate slams right into us.LOL
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I was hoping for a stronger Maria this morning, meaning that she would go north faster, but now I think we have to be more wary of her, since she's weaker she may come further west.
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Quoting Chicklit:


yup. no kidding.
check the ER stats if you don't believe me.
anyway, Nate is still going anywhere but TX.
and the northeast does not need another soaker.
unbelievable.


trust me i believe you andi am one haha
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey Taz.




hey how it going this AM



will the M storm too me looks like a open wave and the N storm will be geting it act too geting today has the N storm is lossing the cold front what you think?
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The very robust wave we've been watching for several days is now moving into West Africa, and looking better than ever. While it hasn't been "pouchified" yet, it should be soon; it'll be moving into the Atlantic this weekend, so could become a player next week.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


In the meantime, 26L--the wave between Maria and Africa--isn't expected to do much at this time.
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nate would like to be named nate the great if so go to tx
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey! lol


yup. no kidding.
check the ER stats if you don't believe me.
anyway, Nate is still going anywhere but TX.
and the northeast does not need another soaker.
unbelievable.
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seems like a lot of models switched back to north with nate,they could switch back as he not really doing a whole lot
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Quoting Tazmanian:



good AM


Hey Taz.
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Quoting Chicklit:
good morning, WUblers.
Excerpt from Maria Discussion 5 a.m.:

IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS USUAL...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK 4 TO 5 DAYS FROM NOW. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH... MOVING OFF THE U.S EAST COAST... IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS. IF THE TROUGH TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...IT COULD DELAY THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.

This seems to be a pattern.


Regarding the person who wants his legs cut off to avoid school, this must be a boy; a girl would just say she has a headache. (ex. of why boys are particularly dangerous to themselves until they get out of their teens)


dont judge me;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey! lol



good AM
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Quoting Chicklit:
good morning, WUblers.
Excerpt from Maria Discussion 5 a.m.:

IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS USUAL...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK 4 TO 5 DAYS FROM NOW. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH... MOVING OFF THE U.S EAST COAST... IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS. IF THE TROUGH TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...IT COULD DELAY THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.

This seems to be a pattern.


Regarding the person who wants his legs cut off to avoid school, this must be a boy; a girl would just say she has a headache. (ex. of why boys are particularly dangerous to themselves until they get out of their teens)


Hey! lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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