Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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Quoting photomunkey:
Thank you Angela!

Ok, if no one else is going to say it, I will... the NHC named THAT funky blob in the Bay of Campeche? I suspect they must really want to justify their budget to Congress...

Between a) those who believe the NHC is naming things they shouldn't, and b) those who believe the NHC is not naming things they should, I'd say they've reached a pretty good balance overall... ;-)
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Sorry off topic all just trying to Vent a little :(





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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


DOOM!

lol, j/k.


Lol. I'm still very skeptical of Nate becoming a hurricane, actually.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Either Nate drifted .2N and .2W or the center has reformed/is reforming farther north and west, as I said visible loops argued.

not so much west but more northerly it is trying to reform. that is increasing the chance of track 2 for nate which isnt good :P
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This might sound ugly, but there's no chance for Texas. Period.

When you have so much dry air and an annoying ridge of high pressure dominating the weather, it's just highly unlikely for anything to get near them. Even if it does, you'll likely see a "Don". I know it is aggravating, but it's the unfortunate truth.

Wish there was better news!
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Quoting Levi32:


Which I'm personally not entirely sold on yet, but we will see. BOC systems can surprise you with intensity sometimes. I would probably expect a Cat 2 or stronger storm to be more likely to make it to the north gulf coast, but that doesn't mean that something weaker than that can't make it. I still think it's a bit early to discount either possibility with Nate. The models are still pretty spread out in timing and position.


DOOM!

lol, j/k.
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Quoting spinningtop:
can anyone tell me where marie is going

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
...even with my **list** now at 221
I currently have to set the filter at average
to make the experience here viable.


U up there with me CRS,,the filter does has its use ,esp nowadays like.

Been up on the roof today?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA
...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL
STORM MARI
A...LOCATED ABOUT 1205 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NATE...LOCATED ABOUT
140 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Is there room left in the Atlantic anyway?
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:

lol. i don't think that's bad at all! I know how it is to want family and loved ones around. I'll keep my fingers crossed just for you! Does he ever take you fishing!!??
dosent do anything with family anymore.... She changed him 100% and it's all her way......
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Bermuda Radar Site
Link
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Either Nate drifted .2N and .2W or the center has reformed/is reforming farther north and west, as I said visible loops argued.

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...even with my **list** now at 221
I currently have to set the filter at average
to make the experience here viable.
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Thank you Angela.
I find it interesting that you note the historical uncertainty in forecasts for storms from this area, and you say we should expect better results in future runs.
.
Do you have a personal opinion...will we see the models shift?
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Quoting mobhurricane2011:
when you say stronger storm, how much stronger you talking about? they got it going to 85mph


Which I'm personally not entirely sold on yet, but we will see. BOC systems can surprise you with intensity sometimes. I would probably expect a Cat 2 or stronger storm to be more likely to make it to the north gulf coast, but that doesn't mean that something weaker than that can't make it. I still think it's a bit early to discount either possibility with Nate. The models are still pretty spread out in timing and position.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL
STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1205 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NATE...LOCATED ABOUT
140 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON NATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm NATE
...NATE ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 7
Location: 20.4°N 92.6°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1003 mb
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Looking at Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, no doubt about it. It bothers me that this season may 'eclipse' 2005 because I don't think this year deserves it.
2005 also had some pity storms with low ace, they weren't all monsters ya know :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Say, Pat, can you get me the phone number for 911?


sure,,lemme check my link directory..

I'll get back to yas.

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

...NATE ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Quoting Levi32:


Well Nate will be sitting around for a little while yet before going anywhere at a decent pace. He could slowly strengthen and still get into the weakness to his north if he becomes a significant system, but in general, the faster he strengthens, the better chance he has at getting all the way north. A move actually into Texas may still be hard here (I know...ugh right). A commitment northward would likely make it another Louisiana storm, but if we can get him into northern Mexico instead, the right front quadrant of the storm could bring southern Texas some rain.
when you say stronger storm, how much stronger you talking about? they got it going to 85mph
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Quoting Patrap:
Does anyone have the NHC update to post yet?



If one cant find the NHC site on-line.

Why Bother?

Jeeezum,


Say, Pat, can you get me the phone number for 911?
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
800 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...KATIA GENERATING LARGE SWELLS ON BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 69.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
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unenhanched IR

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Oh and thank you for the update Angela!
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From Previous Blog.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ACE has made a considerable jump over the past few weeks...Thanks to Irene, and now Katia. Before Katia dissipates, I'd expect ACE to be over 60. Maria will be another big ACE contributor, but maybe not as much as Irene or Katia, if it doesn't strengthen into a major hurricane.


2011 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Updated Sep 07, 2011 23:00

BASIN CURRENT YTD
Northern Hemisphere
289.1500
Western Pacific
168.33
North Atlantic
57.225

Eastern Pacific
62.4925
North Indian
1.1025
Southern Hemisphere
140.398
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Quoting Levi32:


Well Nate will be sitting around for a little while yet before going anywhere at a decent pace. He could slowly strengthen and still get into the weakness to his north if he becomes a significant system, but in general, the faster he strengthens, the better chance he has at getting all the way north. A move actually into Texas may still be hard here (I know...ugh right). A commitment northward would likely make it another Louisiana storm, but if we can get him into northern Mexico instead, the right front quadrant of the storm could bring southern Texas some rain.
nhc has nate at cat 1. how could nate overcome the extreme amount of dry air to the nw of him? also 18z GFS perfectly supports your idea of a carribean storm and after maria any more cape verdes to threaten the east coast because maria looks unlikely to hit the east coast
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Thanks Angela :) This has been one heck of a season and no reason to believe the 2nd half will not be as active as the 1st half or even more active.
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Katia doesn't look like a hurricane anymore.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well Nate will be sitting around for a little while yet before going anywhere at a decent pace. He could slowly strengthen and still get into the weakness to his north if he becomes a significant system, but in general, the faster he strengthens, the better chance he has at getting all the way north. A move actually into Texas may still be hard here (I know...ugh right). A commitment northward would likely make it another Louisiana storm, but if we can get him into northern Mexico instead, the right front quadrant of the storm could bring southern Texas some rain.


How strong does Nate have the potential to become, once dry air becomes LESS of an issue?
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I know this sounds bad but wishing a hurricane on florida to scare my dads new girlfriend back to brazil. (she's terrified of them)lmao......... I want my dad back!!!!!!
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Does anyone have the NHC update to post yet?



If one cant find the NHC site on-line.

Why Bother?

Jeeezum,

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Quoting P451:
Some nice tops firing in the final visibles.






Center is ENE of the latest blob of convection.



Oh but wait, I thought cloud tops were warming and it didn't look as impressive as earlier?

I'm just messin' with ya :P
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Quoting photomunkey:
Thank you Angela!

Ok, if no one else is going to say it, I will... the NHC named THAT funky blob in the Bay of Campeche? I suspect they must really want to justify their budget to Congress... hmmmmmmmmm. Thunderstorm activity displaced from the center? Closed circulation? 45 mph winds aloft, or at the surface? Doesn't say. Does anyone have the NHC update to post yet?


Looking at Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, no doubt about it. It bothers me that this season may 'eclipse' 2005 because I don't think this year deserves it.
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Quoting photomunkey:
Thank you Angela!

Ok, if no one else is going to say it, I will... the NHC named THAT funky blob in the Bay of Campeche? I suspect they must really want to justify their budget to Congress... hmmmmmmmmm. Thunderstorm activity displaced from the center? Closed circulation? 45 mph winds aloft, or at the surface? Doesn't say. Does anyone have the NHC update to post yet?


The 45 MPH was from sfmr from the hurricane hunters, iirc.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Levi,

If I understand correctly, Nate has to get strong quickly to be able to head more north to hit Texas, correct? Or can he gain strength slowly and still go more north?

The problem with the former would then he would be a strong storm hitting TX to help put out the fires and not the TS that would be better. Yes?


Well Nate will be sitting around for a little while yet before going anywhere at a decent pace. He could slowly strengthen and still get into the weakness to his north if he becomes a significant system, but in general, the faster he strengthens, the better chance he has at getting all the way north. A move actually into Texas may still be hard here (I know...ugh right). A commitment northward would likely make it another Louisiana storm, but if we can get him into northern Mexico instead, the right front quadrant of the storm could bring southern Texas some rain.
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Nate

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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So where exactly is the surface coc of Nate. 12.5 N, 92.5 W?

Opps that should be 21.5 N - should have not slept through typing calss
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Just busy with grandkids, and trying to keep up with weather! I am very glad to see you here again Angela! I enjoy your information, and your humor!
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015L/TS/N/CX
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SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.
Quoting photomunkey:
Thank you Angela!

Ok, if no one else is going to say it, I will... the NHC named THAT funky blob in the Bay of Campeche? I suspect they must really want to justify their budget to Congress... hmmmmmmmmm. Thunderstorm activity displaced from the center? Closed circulation? 45 mph winds aloft, or at the surface? Doesn't say. Does anyone have the NHC update to post yet?

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Visible satellite argues that Nate's center is reforming farther north.
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:
Thnx angela!

Repeat: Fishaloic! HEY BUDDY!!! Where you been hiding at??? GOOD TO SEE YOU!!
IN florida fishing it up. :)
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thanks angela
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Levi,

If I understand correctly, Nate has to get strong quickly to be able to head more north to hit Texas, correct? Or can he gain strength slowly and still go more north?

The problem with the former would then he would be a strong storm hitting TX to help put out the fires and not the TS that would be better. Yes?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.