Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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If Nate stays in the S/W Gulf for 5 days anything can happen.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
I think MORE areas are brewing in the Atlantic!

I believe the best two shots of becoming the next Tropical Cyclones are the 14N and 12 W wave about to come off Africa and what looks like MAJOR trouble with the wave over CENTRAL AFRICA at 5 E and 10N

Below is an image of the impressive 5E and 10N wave
Link

OTHER interesting areas to watch


Thunderstorms have increased near 24N and 61W however it looks like the outflow from Katia and incoming Maria will be a MAJOR problem for this area. Katia is moving northward but Maria is racing along at 20+ MPH and so the likelihood of this area developing seems to be small in my book.

The are of thunderstorms in the Vincenty of 10 N and 30W might not have a lot of thunderstorm activity with it but this area is bothering me for some reason. I am not sure what it is about this area but I would look to see if a storm organizes from this area once Maria Moves North West.




If you look at the really long range gfs model and look about 15 days from now you get a high over the bermuda with no troughs, that can look good for an FL landfall many people on WU have been waiting for this year. What they need to be worried about is the expansion of 90 degree waters around the bahamas though. The area is gettin bigger.
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Quoting HCW:


That's 100% alse and dangerous info to post on any forum


How is it dangerous? Is someone going to suddenly drive their laptop into a wall after reading someone's post that the CONUS is safe right now?

There are no storms threatening the CONUS at this time. No need to get dramatic.
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318. DFWjc
Quoting FLdewey:


Pssst... look at your keyboard.


Dew it's just not my night... I'm hanging it up...
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Quoting twincomanche:
Life's a bitch and then you die.


LOL - yes, it is. But the reaction I received was quite surprising. I was asking (my original question about climate change and its effect on the monsoonal trough) in regards to the potential formation of tropical systems, and whether or not anyone had modeled it. man you would have thought I had insulted . . . (name your favorite sacrosanct person).
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looks like we have 29 more years left of the postive phase (warm phase) of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. when its positive the amount of hurricanes and tropical cyclone activity increases in the atlantic. for example an el nino year lets say 2009 had only 9 named storms. on an average year in the NEGATIVE Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (cold phase) 9 named storm is considered above average and el nino and la nina dont really become apparent for number of named storms. example 1989 la nina year 11 named storms above average activity now anything 14 15 named storms is above average activity. we have until 2040 (estimate) until the phase returns to negative. the peak will be 2020 so that COULD be if its a neutral or la nina year very bad in terms of named storms.. i hope you all enjoyed this info :)
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315. txjac
Quoting justalurker:
bit off topic..sorry

to all u south florida fans..

3 ex-Florida Panthers among dead in Russian plane crash

link


I was reading about that earlier today ..such a sad event
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Quoting DFWjc:


I think you mean Cat 5, F5 is a tornadic scale...(sighs)


no i mean f5 refresh..lol doh..
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Quoting FLdewey:


If he hasn't yet he's endangering his credibility as a nut.


+1000 hahahahahaha
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bit off topic..sorry

to all u south florida fans..

3 ex-Florida Panthers among dead in Russian plane crash

link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think MORE areas are brewing in the Atlantic!

I believe the best two shots of becoming the next Tropical Cyclones are the 14N and 12 W wave about to come off Africa and what looks like MAJOR trouble with the wave over CENTRAL AFRICA at 5 E and 10N

Below is an image of the impressive 5E and 10N wave
Link

OTHER interesting areas to watch


Thunderstorms have increased near 24N and 61W however it looks like the outflow from Katia and incoming Maria will be a MAJOR problem for this area. Katia is moving northward but Maria is racing along at 20+ MPH and so the likelihood of this area developing seems to be small in my book.

The are of thunderstorms in the Vincenty of 10 N and 30W might not have a lot of thunderstorm activity with it but this area is bothering me for some reason. I am not sure what it is about this area but I would look to see if a storm organizes from this area once Maria Moves North West.


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307. DFWjc
deleted post..
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Quoting twincomanche:
Why is what so? I cannot get around your question?


Don't understand why because NEA interprets data contrary to how you may interpret it that . . .
"even if leftward leaning to the point that his very bright intellect is dimmed by his ideology"

a statement like that does not convey respect and is actually rather demeaning
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Quoting FLdewey:


As of right now the CONUS be lookin safe.



I'm going to see if JB tweeted something contradictory or crazy about Nate and Maria...he usually does by this time:)
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13.5 foot waves in NW quadrant of Maria
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299. JLPR2

Winds sustained at 40mph with gusts to 51mph. Maria very close.
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Quoting FLdewey:


I was told there would be no math.


No math, but there will be a nondenominational thervith at theven AM in the morning.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

See the key on your keyboard that say's Caps Lock. You need to press it, or many people will start to put you on ignore. I am very close to doing it.

He's right, smart and old timer people in FL prepare at the beginning of the season. It's only the new comers that get caught unawares during a big storm.
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does anyone know when nate will be a f5 storm?
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Quoting shred3590:


Global warming is not off topic when Dr. Masters discusses warming in his post.


I agree with you when He refers that the warming is due to climate change. Summertime warming patterns have not been referenced to AGW by Dr. Masters in this current Blog.
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I cant believe anyone would say Maria would be the one to hit East Coast but as this year has gone she might be the one. The name sounds frightening and yes the East coast has been extremly lucky so far.Lee was very gracious to the East Coast, Kept Katia from misbehaving.
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289. DFWjc
Quoting TerraNova:
Hey guys, what going on in he-

Oh.


Parlay?
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Quoting spinningtop:
PEO-PLE IN FLORIDA ARE NOT IDIOTS THEY DONT THINK OR WONDER OR WORRY ABOUT ANY STORMS UNTIL THEY ARE 1 DAY AWAY


aren't you the "STORMCLOUDTOP"? AKA: the guy that got banned numerous times for being right?
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Hey guys, what going on in he-

Oh.
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Quoting twincomanche:
I think Neo is very interesting even if leftward leaning to the point that his very bright intellect is dimmed by his ideology.

Why is that so . . . I previously had a question regarding what effect any potential climate change could have on the monsoonal trough - and was pounced upon immediately as an "AGW". nea was one of the few people that actually pointed me to some scientific literature that discussed it.

Would have to say that this statement is valid for both idealogical directions . . .
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Quoting weatherjr:
GOOD NIGHTS EVERYBODY
Maria, BaHHHHHH.


mommy call u to tuck you in for bedtime..
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Quoting spinningtop:
PEO-PLE IN FLORIDA ARE NOT IDIOTS THEY DONT THINK OR WONDER OR WORRY ABOUT ANY STORMS UNTIL THEY ARE 1 DAY AWAY

See the key on your keyboard that say's Caps Lock. You need to press it, or many people will start to put you on ignore. I am very close to doing it.
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Quoting spinningtop:
PEO-PLE IN FLORIDA ARE NOT IDIOTS THEY DONT THINK OR WONDER OR WORRY ABOUT ANY STORMS UNTIL THEY ARE 1 DAY AWAY




I CANT HERE YOU
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
279. HCW
Quoting wxobsvps:


all of CONUS is...as of right now.


That's 100% false and dangerous info to post on any forum
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Quoting scooster67:

I'll be the first to tell ya. I + every time you post about the weather and - you every time you post about AGW. Reason is I respect your knowledge on this tropical weather blog and can't stand your off topic statements.

Yes, AGW is off topic.



Global warming is not off topic when Dr. Masters discusses warming in his post.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Think Nate is in the GOMEX last I checked


Which is in the Atlantic.... :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting spinningtop:
PEO-PLE IN FLORIDA ARE NOT IDIOTS THEY DONT THINK OR WONDER OR WORRY ABOUT ANY STORMS UNTIL THEY ARE 1 DAY AWAY
ST-OP YEL-LING AT U-S!
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Quoting Fresca:


Not on the first date.
Quoting wxobsvps:


good thing Fresca is a liquid.


LOL.

Quoting hahaguy:


I think that's illegal without consent.


Illegal? Huh? lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Just as an aside, here in Ithaca, NY, the remnants of TS Lee are causing massive flooding -- possibly the worst in 50 years.

(going back to lurking (since 2005) and bailing)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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