Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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whats have a little fun


whats play a game of what if



starting with 90L in round 1 i think it may have had been a STS

round 1


90L bust would have been Ophelia

91L bust would have been Philippe

94L bust would have been Rina

95L be comes ARLENE

96L bust would have been Sean

97L bust would have been Tammy

98L be comes BRET

99L be comes CINDY



round 2


90L be comes DON

91L be comes EMILY

92L absorbed by Gert.

93L be comes HARVEY

94L be comes GERT

95L be comes FRANKLIN

96L bust would have been Vince

97L be comes Irene

98L bust would have been Whitney

99L bust would have been Alpha



round 3

90L be comes TD 10 would have been Beta

91L be comes JOSE

92L be comes Katia

93L be comes LEE

94L bust would have been Gamma

95L be comes Maria

96L be comes nate



this a little fun there then are next name storm would be Epsilon if that came all came ture above



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I sure hope Nate can make it to Texas or at least very close to it enough to bring rain.


Me too!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only place a tropical cyclone could fit in the Atlantic basin in the Caribbean, lol. I know there have been four tropical cyclones active before, but have there ever been five?


Yes. In 1971 there were 5. Not all were hurricanes of course. I think it's happened other times too, but I remember that year being mentioned.
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Quoting HCW:

LOL @XTRAP model.
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Quoting RussianWinter:

Is anyone impressed by the fact that Katia is forecasted to remain a hurricane so far north for so long in the Atlantic?


RussianWinter you gotta have Faith!

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The water vapor imagery for the Gulf of Mexico looks lurid with the dry air and Nate. Using every color from ultraviolent to infradead.


Hurricane Droog is next, I believe...
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Quoting code1:
Hello BOYS and Girls. MEN and women. Yeah sexist post here in reply to all the male jockeying in the good Doc's blog. Necessary? Don't think so. What will be, will be. Some are right on, others far left of COC. Matter? I think not , if not for the boorishness of your posts, especially the May 2010+ posters. Y'all are great, but no need to show muscle here. You are wayyyy behind showing masculinity. Those wishcasting for hit in own area ? Children at most, adults know better. Why not just watch the phenom of the storms, open eyes & ears, especially your brains to other views? Whether your peers or no? We all learn that way! Thrilled to see the interest from when blog first started, sorry to see some of you take pleasure from the learning for all. Just an old WU member here. Times change, but Ma Nature always holds the best hand, no matter our ages .....


pssst..pass it around, i think i'm next on line.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
In LESS than 3 weeks the Atlantic has spawned 7 storms, in which 2 became Major Hurricanes and even 1 Depression has formed that never became a storm.

IMPRESSIVE!
It is hard to imagine if this keeps up that all of the storms in the Atlantic would recurve. Not doomcasting, just being a realist, I mean think about it if you have a storm form in the NW Caribbean with a trough over the east coast, doesn't it move Northeast in tandem with the flow? Also the more weaker the storms stay coming off the coast of Africa the more west they move without gaining significant latitude. So I would watch for at least 1 if not 2 Cape Verde Storms to make that long journey across the Atlantic. Also, the Caribbean has been awfully quiet for this part of the season, and I really don't expect that to stay that way for long.
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Quoting JeffMasters:


It was by a developer at wunderground, John Celenza:

"Wow! Tanger's rainbow is something else! Check out my rainbow: It ends at the stern of a ship! -John"

Jeff Masters


Thank you for the weather update Dr. M. I was getting concerned about some of the models taking Natte to the MS Gulf Coast. After this Awesome weather we have been experiencing a hurricane would be like trhowing a wrench to my plans once again lol.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
The only place a tropical cyclone could fit in the Atlantic basin in the Caribbean, lol. I know there have been four tropical cyclones active before, but have there ever been five?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
hey sorry mississippi i didnt know i took your pic ill change it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
361. HCW
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Anyone has the YTD ACE values and the stats. about how it compares to previous years?
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Just watched The Big Unseasy....gooodness I hope that documentary is full of lies...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
I'm having a hard time seeing how the topic of AGW is off topic in a blog about the formation and behavior of tropical systems.

If we knew all there was to know about how this works, we wouldn't be discussing it. If OUR behavior is indeed influencing the behavior of these entities we are so awed by and we choose to ignore the possibility, that's very unfortunate.

I'm pretty sure that I'm having a larger influence on the climate than the butterfly I saw this afternoon flapping his wings.
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356. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Maria is sheared.
AL, 14, 2011090800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 452W, 45, 1002, TS
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Quoting mcluvincane:


OTS they go. I am willing to bet my house on it at this point. lol

Is it a nice house? I might be interested in taking that bet. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:




dont be fooled it may look like it be 14N but it geting a little shear on it right now
oh yeah maria wont stregthen at all 40 knots of shear to her north and soon to be 20 knots over the center. only way she will strengthen is once getting closer to the islands. not that more models show recurvutre and levi talked about the trough the only possibility is maria recurves and ophelia is the "chosen" carribean storm gfs shows her 990mb over cuba so given the pattern i think the cape verde season is shutting down soon and we might get 1 to 2 more before it ends. so far we have had 2 irene (not really a cape verde but still east of the antilies) and katia and out of 2 1 hit the US so this season isnt the season of FISH its the season of recurves and a couple storms that refuse to go into mexico or recurve out to sea (irene) so we still have 20+ days left of september and i say the US will get 1 to 2 more hurricane b4 the season ends :P
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Wow thanks Dr. Masters!
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352. DFWjc
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


It's all good don't be so hard on yourself. This has been a pretty active season and it got everyone here pretty exhausted. I'm actually glad we got a break from the summer this past few days here in the MS Gulf Coast. It feels like fall. It makes you forget about the hurricanes for a little while.


I only wish it was that, had a job interview rescheduled today, only got 3 hrs of sleep and i'm down to my last two UE checks. My eyes are shot...or i should say my contacts are...night y'all
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Quoting capeflorida:
322. gulfbreeze 9:04 PM EDT on September 07, 2011
"If Nate stays in the S/W Gulf for 5 days anything can happen".

If Nate stays 5 days in the SW Gulf this blog will perform Self-immolation!!!!



Roxanne!


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349. txjac
Good evening Dr Masters ...
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evening doc
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Quoting Tazmanian:




dont be fooled it may look like it be 14N but it geting a little shear on it right now

If it weakens, takes a more W track... Hope not... anyhow, all eyes on it until around Friday night...
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In LESS than 3 weeks the Atlantic has spawned 7 storms, in which 2 became Major Hurricanes and even 1 Depression has formed that never became a storm.

IMPRESSIVE!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
I sure hope Nate can make it to Texas or at least very close to it enough to bring rain.


I could not agree more. We need it so bad. I think it will make landfall just south of the Brownsville area. I just hope it can pull off a Alex from last year. That would be extremely beneficial for the Houston area. As far as central Texas, they are out of luck with this storm unless something spectacular happens. I can tell you now, praying for rain will not work! LOL
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Quoting capeflorida:
322. gulfbreeze 9:04 PM EDT on September 07, 2011
"If Nate stays in the S/W Gulf for 5 days anything can happen".

If Nate stays 5 days in the SW Gulf this blog will perform Self-immolation!!!!


true if Nate does pull a fast one the blog would surely implode. There would be 5,000 posts in half a day.:o
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343. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Neapolitan there's an entry zero for Dr. Master's blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=0

The first comment was removed. I wonder who it was and what it said?


It was by a developer at wunderground, John Celenza:

"Wow! Tanger's rainbow is something else! Check out my rainbow: It ends at the stern of a ship! -John"

Jeff Masters
Quoting DFWjc:


once again having a bad night...not a noob, just tired misread then quote, sorry i'm not perfect like you are... LOL :D


It's all good don't be so hard on yourself. This has been a pretty active season and it got everyone here pretty exhausted. I'm actually glad we got a break from the summer this past few days here in the MS Gulf Coast. It feels like fall. It makes you forget about the hurricanes for a little while.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
322. gulfbreeze 9:04 PM EDT on September 07, 2011
"If Nate stays in the S/W Gulf for 5 days anything can happen".

If Nate stays 5 days in the SW Gulf this blog will perform Self-immolation!!!!
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The blog becomes soooo slowwww when there is no threat to the CONUS...:o
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Quoting RussianWinter:

Is anyone impressed by the fact that Katia is forecasted to remain a hurricane so far north for so long in the Atlantic?
Marginally
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like it's going to pass N of the islands.... COC around 14N already....
yes another high rider passing to the right in the night
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like it's going to pass N of the islands.... COC around 14N already....




dont be fooled it may look like it be 14N but it geting a little shear on it right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
The water vapor imagery for the Gulf of Mexico looks lurid with the dry air and Nate. Using every color from ultraviolent to infradead.
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I sure hope Nate can make it to Texas or at least very close to it enough to bring rain.
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334. DFWjc
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Lol F5 = Refresh noob lol


once again having a bad night...not a noob, just tired misread then quote, sorry i'm not perfect like you are... LOL :D
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Quoting islandboybda:
Bermuda is being straddles by band of rain from Katia now. Winds are slight 20 gusting 30.
http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp
Shows heavier band to SE.
Decent surf, surfing was great today at Windsor beach
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Since someone's bound to ask...Recon for tomorrow:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA.......(NO CHANGES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
C. 08/1700Z
D. 14.3N 52.0W
E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL STORM NATE........(CHANGED FROM SUSPECT AREA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1800Z A. 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0215A NATE B. NOAA9 0315A NATE
C. 08/1530Z C. 08/1730Z
D. 20.1N 91.9W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 77....(ADDED)
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0415A NATE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 20.4N 92.1W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. MARIA: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z....(NO CHANGES)
B. NATE: A G-IV MISSION FOR 10/0000Z. CONTINUE
12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT....(CHANGED)
4. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/1700Z
CANCELED AT 07/1110Z.
B. 08/1800Z INVEST MISSION IS NOW A FIX MISSION.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
So now we have Maria and Nate. And Katia for at least a couple more days. Should build up some ACE this upcoming week.

Could the week of Sept 7-13 be the ACEing of the cake this season?

Is anyone impressed by the fact that Katia is forecasted to remain a hurricane so far north for so long in the Atlantic?
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Looks like it's going to pass N of the islands.... COC around 14N already....
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Neapolitan there's an entry zero for Dr. Master's blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=0

The first comment was removed. I wonder who it was and what it said?
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Quoting DFWjc:


I think you mean Cat 5, F5 is a tornadic scale...(sighs)


Lol F5 = Refresh noob lol
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Did they remove the Latitude and Longitude lines from here?

Yes they did, gotta look at the satellites now to view latitude and longitude.
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So now we have Maria and Nate. And Katia for at least a couple more days. Should build up some ACE this upcoming week.

Could the week of Sept 7-13 be the ACEing of the cake this season?
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Did they remove the Latitude and Longitude lines from here?
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AMZ089-080330-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM MARIA NEAR 13.3N 44.1W 1002 MB AT 5
PM EDT MOVING W AT 21 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55
KT. MARIA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY FRI
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W...TO NEAR 16.0N 58.5W FRI AFTERNOON...AND TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18.5N 63.5W EARLY SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 62W S OF 20N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH SAT...AND REACH TO NEAR 75W SUN.


I have been watching the tropical wave along 62 W and hope they are correct... avoiding tropical rain just now is best for me.
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If Nate stays in the S/W Gulf for 5 days anything can happen.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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